Reports
In-depth research and data reports on prediction markets.
State of Prediction Markets — Q1 2026
Our own 50+ page quarterly report on the business of prediction markets: what mattered in Q1 2026, separating the signal from the noise across platforms, volumes, regulation, and the builder ecosystem. Free.
Wall Street's most-cited strategist puts prediction markets in the same frame as sports books, parimutuel pools and the stock market, and asks the only question that matters: when does the crowd actually know something? For each market type the paper walks through its history, its measured accuracy, how it aggregates private information, what causes diversity to break down, and the role of incentives.
An interactive 38-dataset report arguing prediction markets have moved from curiosity to infrastructure, stratifying into three archetypes: Narrative markets (Polymarket), Cadence markets (Kalshi), and Hedging markets (CME, Nasdaq, Cboe). Free, web-based.
130× volume growth, 612k monthly active users, Brier scores near 0.09. The definitive data-driven look at how prediction markets are evolving into forecasting, hedging, and pricing infrastructure.