The Wire
Every prediction-market story, classified and deduplicated. Fed hourly by the Predicted news bot.

Trump National Emergency Before the Midterms? The Prediction Market Sitting at 28% - tech-insider.org
Trump National Emergency Before the Midterms? The Prediction Market Sitting at 28% tech-insider.org
Prediction markets are betting on natural disasters. Where do we draw the line?

Joe Burrow Leads Kalshi Quarterback Market to Throw for Over 4,000 Passing Yards
Kalshi lists Joe Burrow as a top QB to throw for over 4,000 yards in the 2026 NFL season.
Ashley Moody becomes stronger Polymarket bet after Angie Nixon nomination
Ashley Moody becomes stronger Polymarket bet after Angie Nixon nomination Florida Politics
Kalshi off-limits in multiple states as prediction markets, CFTC team up for battle
Kalshi off-limits in multiple states as prediction markets, CFTC team up for battle CoinDesk
Rep. Baumgartner pushes ban on wildfire gambling on Polymarket, Kalshi
Rep. Baumgartner pushes ban on wildfire gambling on Polymarket, Kalshi The Seattle Times
Google information security engineer charged with using inside information to make $1M on Polymarket - ABC News
Google information security engineer charged with using inside information to make $1M on Polymarket ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

CME vs Kalshi: the prediction market fight that just went personal at the CFTC
CME vs Kalshi: the prediction market fight that just went personal at the CFTC Crypto News
Kalshi challenges WA ruling
Kalshi challenges WA ruling NonStop Local KHQ
Kalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations
Kalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations The Seattle Times
Kalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations - The Spokesman-Review
Kalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations The Spokesman-Review
Yordan Álvarez Extends AL MVP Lead on Kalshi Prediction Market
Kalshi continues to strengthen Yordan Alvarez's price to win the AL MVP.
Kalshi Study Finds Prediction Markets Work Best When Traders Crowd In
Kalshi Study Finds Prediction Markets Work Best When Traders Crowd In Yellow.com
Deshaun Watson Pulling Away in Browns Starting QB Prediction Market at Kalshi
Deshaun Watson is pulling away on Kalshi to win the Cleveland Browns starting QB job over Shedeur Sanders.
Duffy Riles Kalshi, Novig Starts Fast, Horse Racing Hit with Another Scandal in This Week’s Bingos & Busts
A spat at a CFTC meeting, an insider trading controversy bubbling up around horse racing, and a sports betting editor setting a fine example make headlines. When we’re talking next month about football driving billions of dollars through prediction markets during the exchange’s first real season in business, Novig will be among the…
What the Lazio-Polymarket Split Reveals About Football Sponsorship Rules in Italy
What the Lazio-Polymarket Split Reveals About Football Sponsorship Rules in Italy Yahoo Sports
VIDEO: Kalshi challenges Washington court order
VIDEO: Kalshi challenges Washington court order KIRO 7 News Seattle
Kalshi asks King County judge to reconsider Washington injunction on event contracts
Kalshi asks King County judge to reconsider Washington injunction on event contracts KOMO
CME, Kalshi Leaders Clash Over Prediction Market Regulation
CME, Kalshi Leaders Clash Over Prediction Market Regulation Yahoo Finance
The Prediction Markets Are Catching on With Wall Street Interns
The Prediction Markets Are Catching on With Wall Street Interns Business Insider
States are coming after prediction markets — and setting up a costly legal battle over who gets to regulate them
States are coming after prediction markets — and setting up a costly legal battle over who gets to regulate them MarketWatch
Prediction markets, facing no Mississippi regulations, are targeting college campuses, policy expert warns
Prediction markets, facing no Mississippi regulations, are targeting college campuses, policy expert warns Mississippi Today
Kalshi Says Washington Limits Unfair Since Rival Can Operate
Kalshi Says Washington Limits Unfair Since Rival Can Operate Bloomberg Law News
SafeBets Wants To Cull ‘High-Performing Predictors’ from Massive Sports and Politics User Base
The no-cash-deposit prediction platform is targeting 200 million users by 2030. SafeBets is leaning on sports and politics to exponentially broaden its audience, while it expects financial market forecasts to be the key value driver of its trading model.
152 Wallets on Trump Jr.-Linked Polymarket Made $8M Betting on US Military Moves With 97% Win Rate
152 Wallets on Trump Jr.-Linked Polymarket Made $8M Betting on US Military Moves With 97% Win Rate International Business Times UK
Prediction market company sues Wisconsin attorney general
Prediction market company sues Wisconsin attorney general WBAY
As Trump Asks Congress to Pass Clarity Act, Better Markets Analyst Says Bill Will Fail; States and Tribes Will Prevail Over Prediction Markets
As President Trump called on Congress to pass the stalled Clarity Act, Better Markets’ policy director Amanda Fischer predicted the bill to regulate cryptocurrency will ultimately fail and states and tribes will prevail over prediction markets. On the same day that President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act during a…
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: Appeals Build as CFTC Debates Market Oversight
Federal appeals are taking on a larger role in the prediction market fight, while the CFTC is moving toward new rules for the sector. Prediction market disputes continued to shift toward federal appeals courts this week, as Kalshi sought relief from state enforcement and Crypto.com agreed to await a Ninth Circuit ruling that could shape…
Polymarket's public ledger may be leaking military secrets
A watchdog group traced $8M in longshot bets that landed right before U.S. strikes on Iran.
'Orcas' with likely inside info win big on Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket
'Orcas' with likely inside info win big on Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket Responsible Statecraft
A warning for your college teen: Beware addictive prediction markets | Opinion
A warning for your college teen: Beware addictive prediction markets | Opinion Sacramento Bee
Kalshi’s Crypto Perpetual Futures Reach $17.98 Million Open Interest
Kalshi’s Crypto Perpetual Futures Reach $17.98 Million Open Interest Yahoo Finance
CME CEO spars with CFTC chair about need to regulate prediction market
CME CEO spars with CFTC chair about need to regulate prediction market The Edge Malaysia
House Speaker Says Prediction Markets Swayed By Foreigners Betting On US Elections, Punchbowl Reports
Prediction markets news roundup: What we learned about prediction markets from the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee; Kalshi starts blocking users in Washington state.

CFTC Prediction Market Roadmap Draws Scrutiny Over Manipulation
While some executives praised the CFTC’s oversight, others questioned its approach to self-certification and whether some contracts should be offered at all. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig outlined a new regulatory roadmap for prediction markets Thursday, as industry executives debated manipulation risks,…
Banning Political Prediction Markets Would Be Unconstitutional
Banning Political Prediction Markets Would Be Unconstitutional Bloomberg Law News
Prediction market exec says gambling fight could reach Supreme Court by June
A possible circuit split could determine whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling rules.
CFTC Readies Prediction Market Rules as Innovation Advisory Committee Weighs Market Limits, Consumer Safeguards
CFTC Readies Prediction Market Rules as Innovation Advisory Committee Weighs Market Limits, Consumer Safeguards DeFi Rate
When is a bet not a bet? Prediction markets spark legal battle in California
When is a bet not a bet? Prediction markets spark legal battle in California cbs8.com
Novig CEO on why sports prediction markets are 'more fair' than traditional sports betting
Novig CEO on why sports prediction markets are 'more fair' than traditional sports betting CNBC
Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced
Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced Decrypt
More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets
More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets The Journal Record
CME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight
The head of CME Group Inc. told the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that the agency needed to do more to prevent manipulation on prediction markets as the trading startups grow into multibillion-dollar businesses.
CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee meeting addresses emerging prediction market risks
CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee meeting addresses emerging prediction market risks CNBC
Baumgartner bill would ban wildfire betting on prediction markets
Baumgartner bill would ban wildfire betting on prediction markets KREM
Kalshi Starts Restricting Access to Sports Prediction Markets in Washington State
Kalshi Starts Restricting Access to Sports Prediction Markets in Washington State Yahoo Finance
CME CEO Terrence Duffy trades barbs with CFTC’s Selig and Kalshi’s COO over prediction market oversight
A CFTC ommittee meeting exposed a sharp divide between the worlds of traditional finance and prediction market platforms.
Tensions Flare as CME, Kalshi Execs Clash Over Prediction Markets in DC
Tensions Flare as CME, Kalshi Execs Clash Over Prediction Markets in DC Decrypt
CME CEO And CFTC Chairman Clash Over Prediction Market Oversight
CME CEO And CFTC Chairman Clash Over Prediction Market Oversight Bitcoin World
Watch Robinhood CEO Tenev on Crypto Rules and Prediction Markets
Watch Robinhood CEO Tenev on Crypto Rules and Prediction Markets Bloomberg
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Platform is Best for the New EPL Season?
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Platform is Best for the New EPL Season? FOX Sports
Kalshi releases largest study on prediction markets’ reliability
Kalshi releases largest study on prediction markets’ reliability Crypto Briefing
CFTC chair vows to 'move swiftly' on crypto rules if Congress fails to pass legislation
The head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) vowed Thursday to “move swiftly” on establishing rules for the cryptocurrency market if Congress fails to pass legislation on the matter this year. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said at a meeting with crypto and prediction market executives that the agency stands “ready to begin…
ADI Predictstreet’s $6.9B Blockchain Generates Only $7,248 a Day
Prediction market startup ADI Predictstreet, which, seemingly out of nowhere, became a FIFA partner, values its network in the billions. But Gambling Insider’s investigation reveals a venue that earns just ~$7,000 in daily fees, settles in someone else’s dollar, and answers to three keyholders it has not identified.
Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran put Polymarket’s military betting problem in focus
Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran put Polymarket’s military betting problem in focus calcalistech.com
Soldier charged over Polymarket trades seeks dismissal - ABC News
Soldier charged over Polymarket trades seeks dismissal ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
NEXTPredict Bets $12K on Kalshi to Protect $3M Conference from Flight Chaos
NEXTPredict Bets $12K on Kalshi to Protect $3M Conference from Flight Chaos Trade Show News Network
NYSE Owner Says Firm to Look at Polymarket’s New Funding Round
NYSE Owner Says Firm to Look at Polymarket’s New Funding Round Bloomberg Law News
Arsenal Big Prediction Market Favorites to Win Premier League, Man City, Man United Trending Down
Kalshi predicts Arsenal winning its second straight Premier League title. Both Man City and Man United are trending down.
What Are the Chances: The Unlikely Mainstreaming of Prediction Markets
What Are the Chances: The Unlikely Mainstreaming of Prediction Markets Truthdig
Robinhood CEO Tenev Talks Crypto Rules and Prediction Markets
Robinhood co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev says clearer, more permanent crypto rules would give investors confidence that regulations won't shift with changing administrations. Speaking with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington, DC, Tenev says that prediction markets will survive regardless of…
Crypto Companies and Prediction Markets are Advising the CFTC
Crypto Companies and Prediction Markets are Advising the CFTC Better Markets
Elon Musk Says Starship Reuse Is Near After Years of Delays: What Do Prediction Markets Say?
Elon Musk Says Starship Reuse Is Near After Years of Delays: What Do Prediction Markets Say? Benzinga
ProphetX CEO Urges CFTC to Preserve Two-Sided Exchanges in Sports Prediction Markets
ProphetX CEO Urges CFTC to Preserve Two-Sided Exchanges in Sports Prediction Markets PR Newswire
Trump Praises Prediction Markets as Report Finds Traders Made $8 Million on Suspicious Military Bets
Trump Praises Prediction Markets as Report Finds Traders Made $8 Million on Suspicious Military Bets Yahoo Finance
CFTC prediction market rules face legal threats - Better Markets
CFTC prediction market rules face legal threats - Better Markets ReadWrite
How Does Polymarket Work: A Beginner’s Guide to Trading Sports on Polymarket
How Does Polymarket Work: A Beginner’s Guide to Trading Sports on Polymarket Mile High Sports
San Diego County Supervisors pass 'anti-corruption' restrictions tied to prediction markets, lobbying
San Diego County Supervisors pass 'anti-corruption' restrictions tied to prediction markets, lobbying KPBS
Study Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets for Possible Insider Bets Using Nonpublic U.S. Military Data
Study Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets for Possible Insider Bets Using Nonpublic U.S. Military Data Cryptonews.net
Alina Habba says she's 'not in the running' to replace Leavitt
Alina Habba, the president's former personal attorney, ruled herself out as a candidate for White House press secretary as speculation swirls about whom President Trump will pick to replace Karoline Leavitt. "Flattered by the Kalshi odds, but I’m not in the running for any job," Habba wrote in a social media post on Wednesday,…
Trump Praises Prediction Markets As $8M Military Bet Profits Flagged - Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:IC
Trump Praises Prediction Markets As $8M Military Bet Profits Flagged - Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:IC Benzinga
Polymarket Faces Fresh Insider Trading Scrutiny After 152 Wallets Allegedly Made $8 Million Betting on US Military Markets: Report
Polymarket Faces Fresh Insider Trading Scrutiny After 152 Wallets Allegedly Made $8 Million Betting on US Military Markets: Report TradingView

Chelsea vs Manchester United: Kalshi Weighs Which Side Will Finish Top 4 in EPL
Chelsea and Manchester United are trending towards fourth place in the Premier League on Kalshi.
Malik Nabers Injury Return Date Trending Up at Kalshi
Malik Nabers is trending up on Kalshi for a return in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.
EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds
EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds Reuters
Denmark blocks Polymarket and 97 other sites in unlicensed gambling sweep
Denmark blocks Polymarket and 97 other sites in unlicensed gambling sweep European Gaming
Election Betting Is Banned in Most States. Will Prediction Markets Change That? - National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)
Election Betting Is Banned in Most States. Will Prediction Markets Change That?
Could Prediction Markets Start Having A Republican Problem Leading Up To Midterm Elections?
Prediction markets news roundup: Kalshi embraces institutional trading; betting on the fattest bear in Alaska; BTC price discovery

Prediction market firm sues Kaul to prevent enforcement of Wisconsin gambling law
Prediction market firm sues Kaul to prevent enforcement of Wisconsin gambling law WPR
CFTC Seats Kalshi, Polymarket, Draftkings on Its New Advisory Panel
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee holds its first meeting Thursday, with prediction markets on the agenda. Seven of its 35 members run companies at the center of the event-contract fight the agency is waging against nine state governments.
Cantor Fitzgerald Enters Prediction Markets Space With Kalshi
Cantor Fitzgerald Enters Prediction Markets Space With Kalshi PYMNTS.com
Cantor Commences Institutional Block Trading in Prediction Markets
Cantor Commences Institutional Block Trading in Prediction Markets Cantor Fitzgerald
Prediction market firm sues to escape Wisconsin gambling law
Prediction market firm sues to escape Wisconsin gambling law Wisconsin Examiner
Battle between Kalshi, Nevada over geofencing order heats up
Battle between Kalshi, Nevada over geofencing order heats up rgj.com
Prediction Markets Behave Like Exchanges, Not Products
Two prediction market startups — Trepa and Fireplace — shut down within 90 minutes of each other in the sector's best year ever, as Kalshi and Polymarket absorbed 93.3% of volume. The postmortem's core argument: prediction markets behave like exchanges, not products, where liquidity begets liquidity and winner-take-most is the natural…
Kalshi Pushes Beyond Prediction Markets With Copper Perpetual Futures
Kalshi Pushes Beyond Prediction Markets With Copper Perpetual Futures Decrypt
Kalshi Seeks CFTC Nod for Perpetual Bets on 500 Shares and Copper
Kalshi has asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to approve perpetual futures tied to a U.S. large-cap stock index and the price of copper, extending its push from prediction markets into mainstream financial products.
Cantor launches prediction market trading for institutional investors
Cantor launches prediction market trading for institutional investors Reuters
Mystery Polymarket Millionaire Bets $179,000 Iran Nuclear Talks Will Fail This Year
Mystery Polymarket Millionaire Bets $179,000 Iran Nuclear Talks Will Fail This Year Forbes
Watch the newest commercials from Estée Lauder, America’s Best, Kalshi and more
Watch the newest commercials from Estée Lauder, America’s Best, Kalshi and more Ad Age
Cantor Joins Brokers Offering Access to Kalshi Prediction Market
Cantor Joins Brokers Offering Access to Kalshi Prediction Market Bloomberg Law News
A niche academic team at quant hedge fund AQR is now trading on prediction markets
A niche academic team at quant hedge fund AQR is now trading on prediction markets eFinancialCareers
Kalshi Hires Oregon Lobbyists and Gives Rayfield $12,500
Kalshi Hires Oregon Lobbyists and Gives Rayfield $12,500 Willamette Week
Election Betting Is Banned in Most States. Will Prediction Markets Change That?
Polymarket bets on 2025 L.A. wildfires show just how ugly the online gambling market can be
Polymarket bets on 2025 L.A. wildfires show just how ugly the online gambling market can be latimes.com
BTC Cracks $68,000 and You May Want to Look at Kalshi to Predict Bitcoin's Next Move Before Binance Does
Cantor Becomes To Offer Access To Prediction Market Kalshi
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. is giving Wall Street clients access to Kalshi’s prediction markets, in the latest push by the event bets exchange to encourage more institutional involvement in the burgeoning asset class.
Prediction markets shut out of Trump's meeting with tech executives
Predication market officials will not attend a White House event Wednesday that will feature cryptocurrency and other tech leaders. President Trump "will host an event with tech leaders tomorrow to strengthen America's innovative and technological dominance,” a White House official told Politico.
The Strange Case of ADI Predictstreet, IHC and the Abu Dhabi Royal Family
Why is ADI Predictstreet so guarded about its connections to International Holding Company (IHC) and the Abu Dhabi royal family? That’s the question we have been seeking answers to over the past couple of weeks.
Cantor opens Kalshi prediction markets to thousands of institutional clients
Hedge funds are about to jump into prediction markets in a big way
Hedge funds are about to jump into prediction markets in a big way cnbc.com
Live updates: Trump delays new tariffs on Canada amid talks; Florida, Wyoming primaries yield upsets
President Trump announced late Tuesday he would pause the 50 percent tariffs on many Canadian goods for three days, saying the U.S. and Canada are finalizing a deal.
Prediction Markets Face Growing State Pushback as US Gambling’s Mood Changes
Prediction Markets Face Growing State Pushback as US Gambling’s Mood Changes Iredell Free News
The Legal War Over Prediction Markets Is Getting Crazier
The Legal War Over Prediction Markets Is Getting Crazier The New Republic
Exclusive | Cantor Lets Hedge Funds Place Big Bets on Kalshi’s Prediction Markets
Exclusive | Cantor Lets Hedge Funds Place Big Bets on Kalshi’s Prediction Markets WSJ
If You Limit Or Ban Prediction Markets, All Of That Action Isn’t Going Offshore
Prediction markets news roundup: Kalshi files for perps tied to equity indexes, early returns from Novig launch and NFL preseason trading

Korea’s media regulator votes to block prediction platform Polymarket - IAG
Korea’s media regulator votes to block prediction platform Polymarket IAG – Inside Asian Gaming
Kalshi asks appeals court to block CT gambling enforcement
Kalshi asks appeals court to block CT gambling enforcement Hartford Business Journal
Polymarket US Tests Parlays as Kalshi Banks $25M in Fees
Polymarket US began processing multi-leg sports contracts on Aug. 5 through an API-only beta that never surfaced in its consumer app.
Kalshi Brings Crypto’s Perpetual Futures Model to Stocks With CFTC Filing
Kalshi Brings Crypto’s Perpetual Futures Model to Stocks With CFTC Filing BeInCrypto
Kalshi files to launch perpetual futures tied to US stock index, copper
Kalshi has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer perps tied to the MerQube US Large Cap Index and copper.
Article | White House: Prediction market companies won't be part of Wednesday gathering
Article | White House: Prediction market companies won't be part of Wednesday gathering POLITICO Pro
Can Prediction Markets Power Coinbase Global's Next Phase of Growth?
Can Prediction Markets Power Coinbase Global's Next Phase of Growth? Yahoo Finance
Why Pro Sports Teams Are Holding Back on Prediction Market Deals
Why Pro Sports Teams Are Holding Back on Prediction Market Deals Yahoo Sports
Polymarket Testing Parlays, er Combos, Ahead of Football Season
Polymarket Testing Parlays, er Combos, Ahead of Football Season Casino.org
Kalshi's $40B Valuation Is 'Staggering': Yesha Yadav
Yesha Yadav, professor of law and associate dean at Vanderbilt Law School joins Scarlet Fu and Dushyant Shahrawat on "Bloomberg Crypto." They discuss the growth of prediction markets, regulation, and Kalshi's $40 billion valuation. (Source: Bloomberg)
Baltimore City Sues Prediction Markets Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Prediction Markets Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting Conduit Street Blog
Mark Walter and Lakers ownership battle, prediction markets in elections, Jewish identity and more
Mark Walter and Lakers ownership battle, prediction markets in elections, Jewish identity and more LAist
Novig Rolls Out Responsible-Trading Rules Amid Gen Z Betting Boom
Novig Rolls Out Responsible-Trading Rules Amid Gen Z Betting Boom FishDuck
Kalshi files for equity index and copper perpetual futures
Kalshi files for equity index and copper perpetual futures qz.com
South Korea Blocks Polymarket Over Gambling Concerns
South Korea Blocks Polymarket Over Gambling Concerns Yahoo Finance
Experts Weigh Pros and Cons of Regulating, Taxing Prediction Markets as Lawsuits Continue
Former Cuomo aide says New York should start taxing Kalshi and other prediction market operators. SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY – The story of the year in gambling has been the legal fight between federally regulated prediction markets that offer contracts on sporting events and states that claim the exchanges are illegal sportsbooks.
Kalshi Partners with Live-Streaming Supplier Catalist Sports for Tennis, Soccer Enhancements
Kalshi Partners with Live-Streaming Supplier Catalist Sports for Tennis, Soccer Enhancements Covers.com
Novig Reports $125M Opening-Week Volume After Nationwide Launch
The sports-focused exchange reported significant early trading activity as it simultaneously fights regulators in five states. Novig generated more than $125 million in notional trading volume during the first week of its federally regulated prediction market, providing an early indication of demand for the former sportsbook and…
Kalshi Readies Perpetual Futures Tied to Stock Indexes
Kalshi Readies Perpetual Futures Tied to Stock Indexes Barron's
Wealthsimple to Add Politics, Sports at Its Prediction Markets?
Wealthsimple to Add Politics, Sports at Its Prediction Markets? Iredell Free News
Catalist Sports powers next phase of prediction markets growth with Kalshi partnership
Catalist Sports powers next phase of prediction markets growth with Kalshi partnership Asia Gaming Brief (AGB)
Bitcoin Prediction 2026: What Kalshi’s Betting Markets Say
Bitcoin Prediction 2026: What Kalshi’s Betting Markets Say Yahoo Finance
Kalshi seeks to launch ‘perps’ on equity indexes as it moves in on traditional exchanges' turf
The company is seeking to launch a "US500" perp tied to the MerQube U.S. Large Cap Index, according to a regulatory filing.
New Prediction Market Novig Sees $125 Million In Trading Volumes
Gallup Finds Fewer Americans Gambling, but Are Surveys Missing How People Bet?
Self-reported gambling has fallen sharply over the past decade, but prediction markets and a wide gap between phone and online responses complicate the picture. Are Americans actually gambling less, or are traditional surveys increasingly struggling to capture how Americans gamble?
Novig posts $125 million in first-week sports prediction market volume
Novig posts $125 million in first-week sports prediction market volume qz.com
Nevada Problem Gambling Council to cut ties with NCPG over Kalshi partnership
Nevada Problem Gambling Council to cut ties with NCPG over Kalshi partnership yogonet.com
Arch Manning Drops Slightly in Heisman Trophy Prediction Market on Kalshi
Kalshi dropped Arch Manning's Heisman price after Texas' first scrimmage.
Rays Close Gap on Yankees in AL Champion Prediction Market
The Tampa Bay Rays are catching up to the New York Yankees on Kalshi's American League market.
Kalshi files for S&P 500 perpetual futures in challenge to traditional exchanges
Kalshi files for S&P 500 perpetual futures in challenge to traditional exchanges Reuters
Aaron Donald's Prediction Market to Play This Season Skyrockets After Second Rams Workout
Kalshi's price for Aaron Donald unretiring spikes after his second workout with the Los Angeles Rams.
Kalshi Says It Has Filed With The US CFTC For Equity Index Perpetuals
Kalshi Says It Has Filed With The US CFTC For Equity Index Perpetuals tradingview.com
Slumping Dodgers Hit Season Low in Kalshi World Series Prediction Market
The Los Angeles Dodgers World Series price on Kalshi dropped with their recent struggles.
Prediction markets entrant Novig posts more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week
Prediction markets entrant Novig posts more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week CNBC
Elon Musk to Merge SpaceX and Tesla? Prediction Markets Are Betting on This Date
Elon Musk to Merge SpaceX and Tesla? Prediction Markets Are Betting on This Date Benzinga
Latest Prediction Markets for Which Party Will Win the Senate
Latest Prediction Markets for Which Party Will Win the Senate Federal News Network
South Korea joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting Polymarket access
You Can Bet On Cartel Leaders Being Arrested At Polymarket
Prediction markets news roundup: Polymarket US is finally testing parlays heading into football season; election betting raises concerns about midterms.

Nevada regulator seeks $120,000 daily fines against Kalshi
Nevada regulator seeks $120,000 daily fines against Kalshi Focus Gaming News
Terry Duffy on why CME is opting out of sports prediction markets
Terry Duffy on why CME is opting out of sports prediction markets chicagobusiness.com
Kalshi reps claim Nevada gaming regulators violated federal law
Kalshi reps claim Nevada gaming regulators violated federal law ktnv.com
What NFL prediction markets say about Anthony Richardson: How likely is a trade from the Colts?
What NFL prediction markets say about Anthony Richardson: How likely is a trade from the Colts? CBS Sports
Kalshi and NV Gaming Control Board spar over geolocation mandate
Kalshi and NV Gaming Control Board spar over geolocation mandate Nevada Current
Prediction Markets’ Next Big Bet Is in the Appeals Courts - Adam Feldman
Prediction Markets’ Next Big Bet Is in the Appeals Courts Adam Feldman | Substack
Unpacking Tax Uncertainties for Prediction Markets
Unpacking Tax Uncertainties for Prediction Markets bipartisanpolicy.org
Trading Pop Culture & Corporate Markets on Polymarket: Avoiding Insider Crushes
Trading Pop Culture & Corporate Markets on Polymarket: Avoiding Insider Crushes StartupHub.ai
Pennsylvania is Logical Place for State-Level Prediction Market Regulation, But HB 2711 is Oddly Timed
While Kalshi continues to sustain legal defeats, Pennsylvania lawmakers are pushing to regulate prediction markets within state borders. It wouldn’t tax.
Prediction Markets Face New Legal Threats: California Brief
Prediction Markets Face New Legal Threats: California Brief Bloomberg Law News
Prediction Market Battles, July Sports Betting Growth, LuckyLand Shutdown Lead Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
Fresh court pressure on the CFTC, new geofencing deadlines and another wave of July betting data headline the week ahead. Prediction markets remain the biggest gambling story on the industry’s radar, with court developments, Washington meetings, geofencing battles and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) activity all shaping the…
Stan Druckenmiller Reveals $23 Million PURR Bet as Hyperliquid Takes On Polymarket
Nevada Seeks Daily Fines as Kalshi Blames Investigators for Geofencing Workaround
Kalshi says Nevada investigators misrepresented their residence and “actively worked to circumvent” restrictions that blocked them from trading after the Aug. 12 deadline.
Lazio and Polymarket: partnership ends after months of controversy
Lazio and Polymarket: partnership ends after months of controversy sigma.world
Morning Minute: Trump To Meet Crypto, Prediction Market CEOs This Week
JPMorgan cut Polymarket as banking client over regulatory concerns
Carlos Alcaraz Return Date? Kalshi Market Suggests US Open is Out
Kalshi hints that Carlos Alcaraz will miss the US Open on his return market.
Connecticut Judge Says CFTC Cannot Override Court, Denies Kalshi Injunction
The CFTC “lacks the authority to dictate an order that conflicts with this Court’s decision,” according to the denial. A Connecticut judge has denied Kalshi’s emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal, rejecting the company’s attempt to use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) “market emergency” order in New York to…
Episode 28: Prediction Market Policy With Aaron Klein Of The Brookings Institution
Prediction markets news roundup: Nevada wants court to make Kalshi pay fines; report says Israeli Air Force officer arrested for alleged Polymarket bets.

Election Officials Are Preparing for Prediction Markets to Sow Chaos in the Midterms
Election Officials Are Preparing for Prediction Markets to Sow Chaos in the Midterms WIRED
Prediction Markets Face New Threat in Consumer Protection Suits
Prediction Markets Face New Threat in Consumer Protection Suits Bloomberg Law News
Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Unlicensed Sports Betting
Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Unlicensed Sports Betting Startup Fortune
Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin AG in latest spat over sports contracts
Novig, which recently announced a partnership with the New York Mets, has sued officials in five states including Wisconsin since Aug. 4.
Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards
'You can’t predict fire. But you can trade on it' – Senators warn prediction market activity on wildfires could encourage arson
'You can’t predict fire. But you can trade on it' – Senators warn prediction market activity on wildfires could encourage arson Times of San Diego
Kalshi faces $36B threat as CFTC defends prediction market
Kalshi faces $36B threat as CFTC defends prediction market Altcoin Buzz
Kalshi Market on College Football Teams to Leave Conferences: Florida State, Miami, Clemson Among Them
Kalshi has markets open for conference realignment featuring Miami, Florida State, and Clemson,
The Memo: AOC 2028? Dems feel trepidation and excitement over Ocasio-Cortez
Speculation about a presidential run by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) in 2028 is rising to its highest pitch yet — and some people are putting their money on it.
JPMorgan cut Polymarket’s banking ties in October but still wants a role in a potential IPO: FT
Polymarket has moved its accounts to a lender the report could not identify but says it still maintains a "close, active relationship" with JPMorgan.
Kalshi accuses Nevada investigators of violating federal law in geofencing complaint
Kalshi is pushing back against the state of Nevada’s claims that the prediction market operator failed to comply with geofencing requirements, accusing the state’s gaming regulator of violating federal law. In a motion filed in state court on Friday evening, state prosecutors argued that the firm failed to implement a geofencing solution…
Control board: Kalshi should pay $120K per day for noncompliance with the court
Control board: Kalshi should pay $120K per day for noncompliance with the court The Nevada Independent
Why Prediction Market Signals Rarely Override Crypto Investors’ Existing Bets
Why Prediction Market Signals Rarely Override Crypto Investors’ Existing Bets Coin Edition
Trump, CFTC Chair Selig expected at Wednesday White House meeting with crypto and prediction market executives
The session is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday and is intended as a kickoff for the CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting the next day.
Prediction market operator Kalshi hits back at Nevada regulator over geofencing fine
Prediction markets and sports betting: How this UK exchange is trying to do both in the U.S.
Prediction markets and sports betting: How this UK exchange is trying to do both in the U.S. CNBC
Kevin Love Retirement Next? Kalshi Prediction Market Expects Yes
Kevin Love's next team market on Kalshi now favors retirement.
JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Over US Regulatory Concerns
JPMorgan severed its links with Polymarket last year, citing regulatory concerns as the prediction market industry stood on shakier ground than it does today. The U.S.
Gender-affirming care, Russia sanctions and Kalshi: CT politics news
Gender-affirming care, Russia sanctions and Kalshi: CT politics news CT Mirror
Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in Washington state - Oregon Public Broadcasting
Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in Washington state Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB
Prediction Markets Weekly: Kalshi Fights and Kalshi Flights
Prediction Markets Weekly: Kalshi Fights and Kalshi Flights sbcamericas.com
NYC Council Announces Investigation Into Marketing by Prediction Market Platforms (via Passle)
NYC Council Announces Investigation Into Marketing by Prediction Market Platforms (via Passle) Frankfurt Kurnit Klein & Selz
Conn. Opposes Kalshi's Bid To Keep Running Pending Appeal
Conn. Opposes Kalshi's Bid To Keep Running Pending Appeal Law360
State Judge to Kalshi: Your Sports Betting Is Obviously Illegal
State Judge to Kalshi: Your Sports Betting Is Obviously Illegal Gizmodo
People are betting on wildfires on Polymarket. What could go wrong?
Sports-mention markets ‘temporarily’ unavailable at Kalshi amid federal investigation
Sports-mention markets ‘temporarily’ unavailable at Kalshi amid federal investigation Awful Announcing
Which Kalshi bets are still legal in Washington?
Which Kalshi bets are still legal in Washington? AppleValleyNewsNow.com
NEWS: JPMorgan debanked Polymarket amid prediction markets scrutiny
NEWS: JPMorgan debanked Polymarket amid prediction markets scrutiny AML Intelligence
DoubleZero up 20% after Kalshi partnership – Can 2Z clear more resistances?
DoubleZero up 20% after Kalshi partnership – Can 2Z clear more resistances? ambcrypto.com
Prediction market regulation debate is around sports betting: Former OMB director Mick Mulvaney
Prediction market regulation debate is around sports betting: Former OMB director Mick Mulvaney CNBC
Fernando Mendoza Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction Market After Preseason Debut
Kalshi remains bullish on Fernando Mendoza's Offensive Rookie of the Year price.
Carson Beck Rises in Cardinals Starting QB Market on Kalshi
Kalshi continues pushing Carson Beck up the Week 1 QB1 board for the Arizona Cardinals.
Polymarket MLB code “CUSE” extends $20 invite bonus to UFC 330 this weekend
Polymarket MLB code “CUSE” extends $20 invite bonus to UFC 330 this weekend NewYorkUpstate.com
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket last year over regulatory concerns, source says
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket last year over regulatory concerns, source says reuters.com
Trump to Attend Meeting With Crypto, Prediction Markets Execs
Trump to Attend Meeting With Crypto, Prediction Markets Execs news.bloomberglaw.com
JPMorgan Cut Polymarket Banking Ties Over Regulatory Concerns
JPMorgan Cut Polymarket Banking Ties Over Regulatory Concerns PYMNTS.com
King County judge orders Kalshi to stop most online betting in Washington state
King County judge orders Kalshi to stop most online betting in Washington state KUOW
JPMorgan Dropped Polymarket Banking Over Regulatory Risk
JPMorgan Dropped Polymarket Banking Over Regulatory Risk Yahoo Finance
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports betting
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports betting Focus Gaming News
Kalshi Pulls All Sports Mention Markets as CFTC Opens Review
Kalshi has removed all sports-mention markets (contracts on whether a broadcaster says a particular word), as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reviews whether the category invites manipulation, NPR reported based on anonymous sources. Mention markets on Trump, corporate earnings calls, and news broadcasts remain live on the…
Current prediction market regulation is unsustainable, says Washington University's Jonathan Kanter
Current prediction market regulation is unsustainable, says Washington University's Jonathan Kanter CNBC
CFTC Looking Into Mention Markets, Horse Racing Controversy, Vegas Dave Highlight This Week’s Gambling Industry Bingos & Busts
While the CFTC is showing signs that it’s willing to regulate prediction markets, one operator is taking its own steps toward responsible trading. Here’s a look back at some of the past week’s newsmakers.
Regulators and banks step up scrutiny of prediction markets
Regulators and banks step up scrutiny of prediction markets CNBC
Kalshi Ordered to Halt Key Washington Markets as Coffeezilla Blasts ‘Thinly Veiled’ Gambling
Kalshi Ordered to Halt Key Washington Markets as Coffeezilla Blasts ‘Thinly Veiled’ Gambling Yahoo Finance
Kalshi pushes investors for $40 billion valuation but regulators have other plans
Kalshi pushes investors for $40 billion valuation but regulators have other plans CDC Gaming
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over allegedly illegal sports betting markets
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over allegedly illegal sports betting markets ReadWrite
Why DraftKings' prediction markets could boost sports betting this Fall
Why DraftKings' prediction markets could boost sports betting this Fall Yahoo Finance
Washington judge orders Kalshi to block sports and election markets
Washington judge orders Kalshi to block sports and election markets qz.com
Kalshi Suspends ‘Mention Markets’ as CFTC Reportedly Investigates Prediction Market Betting on Trump, Sports Commentators
Kalshi Suspends ‘Mention Markets’ as CFTC Reportedly Investigates Prediction Market Betting on Trump, Sports Commentators Yahoo Finance
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket in late 2025
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket in late 2025 CoinDesk
JPMorgan Ended Banking Relationship with Polymarket over Regulatory Concerns
JPMorgan Ended Banking Relationship with Polymarket over Regulatory Concerns WSJ
Baltimore City sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports betting
Baltimore City sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports betting gamingintelligence.com
Kalshi Ordered to Block Washington Bets Days After CFTC Backed It
Kalshi Ordered to Block Washington Bets Days After CFTC Backed It Decrypt
White House to host crypto, prediction market executives next week
White House to host crypto, prediction market executives next week Politico
Bears Moving to Indiana Spikes on Kalshi Prediction Market
Kalshi now leans on the Chicago Bears relocating to Indiana in latest market shift.
Bryson DeChambeau Course Record YouTube Series Attracts Kalshi Market
Bryson DeChambeau's course record series on YouTube sparks a new Kalshi market.
Sports Mention Markets Are Gone At Kalshi For Now, But Will They Return?
Prediction markets news roundup: Federal judge tells Kalshi to cease a lot of markets in Washington state; White House to host prediction markets next week; JP Morgan reportedly debanked Polymarket.

Kalshi Says It Does Not Operate Like a Sports Book
Kalshi and other prediction markets are coming under more pressure from multiple states and regulators. New York City and New York State are both investigating the exchange.
Nevada Problem Gambling Council Leaves NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership
Nevada Problem Gambling Council Leaves NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership Bettors Insider
Kalshi Suspends ‘Mention Markets’ as CFTC Launches Probe Into Prediction Bets: Report
Kalshi Suspends ‘Mention Markets’ as CFTC Launches Probe Into Prediction Bets: Report Benzinga
Everything is MNPI — prediction markets and the problem of immaterial nonpublic information
Everything is MNPI — prediction markets and the problem of immaterial nonpublic information Reuters
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: CFTC Escalates New York Fight as State Challenges Mount
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: CFTC Escalates New York Fight as State Challenges Mount Gambling Insider
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket over regulatory issues; BofA purchases India shadow bank shares
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket over regulatory issues; BofA purchases India shadow bank shares thebanker.com
How Should We Teach Kids About Gambling?
Why young people need probability and skepticism

JPMorgan debanks Polymarket on regulatory issues - report (JPM:NYSE)
JPMorgan debanks Polymarket on regulatory issues - report (JPM:NYSE) Seeking Alpha
“World’s First” Trump Prediction Market Product Killed, What Happened to Truth Predict?
“World’s First” Trump Prediction Market Product Killed, What Happened to Truth Predict? Cryptonews
Prediction markets’ arrival in Canada increases temptation for insider trading, securities experts warn
Prediction markets’ arrival in Canada increases temptation for insider trading, securities experts warn The Globe and Mail
Baltimore Files Lawsuits Against Kalshi and Polymarket
Baltimore Files Lawsuits Against Kalshi and Polymarket DiCello Levitt
Polymarket Faces Baltimore Lawsuit and Lost JPMorgan Banking Relationship
Polymarket Faces Baltimore Lawsuit and Lost JPMorgan Banking Relationship BeInCrypto
Kalshi ordered to stop most operations in WA - The Spokesman-Review
Kalshi ordered to stop most operations in WA The Spokesman-Review
Karen Woody Quoted in The New York Times on Prediction Market Regulation
Karen Woody Quoted in The New York Times on Prediction Market Regulation Washington and Lee University
JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Over Regulatory Concern, FT Says
JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Over Regulatory Concern, FT Says Bloomberg Law News
CFTC vs. New York: the prediction market emergency that could redraw federal-state crypto boundaries
CFTC vs. New York: the prediction market emergency that could redraw federal-state crypto boundaries Crypto News
Richard Warr Provides Prediction Markets Expertise for Kiplinger
Richard Warr Provides Prediction Markets Expertise for Kiplinger NC State Poole College of Management
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, calling prediction markets illegal sports betting
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, calling prediction markets illegal sports betting Baltimore Sun
CFTC Scrutinizes Kalshi Mention Markets as Sports Word Bets Disappear
CFTC Scrutinizes Kalshi Mention Markets as Sports Word Bets Disappear Bitcoin Foundation
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for offering unlicensed sports betting
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for offering unlicensed sports betting NBC Sports
Some prediction markets let people wager on wildfires. Lawmakers want to stop it
Some prediction markets let people wager on wildfires. Lawmakers want to stop it Utah Public Radio
Apex Fintech Solutions Launches Prediction Markets Access
Apex Fintech Solutions Launches Prediction Markets Access wealthmanagement.com
JPMorgan shuttered its banking relationship with predictions platform Polymarket: FT
White House to Meet Crypto and Prediction Market Executives Days After Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket
White House to Meet Crypto and Prediction Market Executives Days After Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket blockhead.co
Judge orders Kalshi to shut down most of its bets in Washington.
Judge orders Kalshi to shut down most of its bets in Washington. The Verge
Kalshi ordered to halt many Washington operations over alleged illegal gambling
Kalshi ordered to halt many Washington operations over alleged illegal gambling komonews.com
JPMorgan debanked Polymarket over regulatory concerns
Largest US bank has continued to cultivate ties with prediction platform as it seeks $20bn valuation
Farage aide Cottrell had secret Polymarket account that placed bets on Trump victory
Large sums involved shine light on the financial activities of one of Farage’s closest confidants
Washington court orders Kalshi to halt most prediction market offerings in state
The Washington court, however, allows Kalshi to continue offering commodities, climate, economics and finance-related markets in the state.
Prediction markets’ reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin
Kalshi and Polymarket gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning on the eve of the primary, before David Crowley’s upset.
Kalshi ordered to block wagers on sports, politics in Washington
Kalshi ordered to block wagers on sports, politics in Washington spokesman.com
Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket
Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket wbaltv.com
Feds probe ‘mention markets’ amid White House Kalshi controversy
Feds probe ‘mention markets’ amid White House Kalshi controversy npr.org
Kalshi Ordered to Cease Most Operations in Washington State
In a preliminary injunction, a state judge barred the prediction market from allowing residents to place bets on the bulk of its offerings.
Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket for Illegal Gambling, 'Misleading Customers'
Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket for Illegal Gambling, 'Misleading Customers' Yahoo
Kalshi Must Suspend Most Wash. Offerings, Install Geofencing
Kalshi Must Suspend Most Wash. Offerings, Install Geofencing Law360
Kalshi Ordered to Shut Down Certain Prediction Markets in Washington
Kalshi Ordered to Shut Down Certain Prediction Markets in Washington Yahoo
Kalshi ordered to stop gambling operations in WA
Kalshi ordered to stop gambling operations in WA FOX 13 Seattle
Kalshi's Valuation Could Nearly Double to $40 Billion After Reports Suggest It Could Raise Another $750 Million. Here's What's Driving the Prediction Market Boom.
Judge denies Kalshi's request to continue Washington operations during court battle
Judge denies Kalshi's request to continue Washington operations during court battle NonStop Local KHQ
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for allegedly violating consumer protection laws
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for allegedly violating consumer protection laws CBS News
Polymarket Acquihires Turf's Sports Prediction Team
Polymarket Acquihires Turf's Sports Prediction Team Yahoo Finance
Kalshi ordered to stop most operations in WA
Kalshi ordered to stop most operations in WA The Seattle Times
Federal judge: Connecticut can impose sports betting rules on Kalshi
Federal judge: Connecticut can impose sports betting rules on Kalshi NBC Connecticut
Baltimore Sues Both Kalshi, Polymarket For Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore Sues Both Kalshi, Polymarket For Alleged Illegal Sports Betting Sports Betting Dime
Judge Orders Kalshi to Stop Offering Most Wagers in Washington
Kalshi was told by a judge to stop offering most of its prediction market contracts in Washington state, after regulators said they likely constituted an illegal gambling operation.
Kalshi ordered to shut down sports and election prediction markets in Washington state by Sept. 2
Kalshi ordered to shut down sports and election prediction markets in Washington state by Sept. 2 GeekWire
Baltimore City sues Kalshi, Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting
Baltimore City sues Kalshi, Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting WBAL News Radio
San Diego County pushes to get prediction markets like Kalshi out of politics
San Diego County pushes to get prediction markets like Kalshi out of politics NBC 7 San Diego
Gemini shares slide after $108 million loss as Winklevoss says ‘we still have work to do’
Gemini’s prediction market volume nearly doubled as the exchange continued expanding beyond crypto trading.
Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in WA
Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in WA Washington State Standard
MLB New York Prediction Market Push Could Spur More Deals
MLB New York Prediction Market Push Could Spur More Deals Covers.com
Baltimore claims Kalshi, Polymarket run illegal sportsbooks
Baltimore claims Kalshi, Polymarket run illegal sportsbooks Courthouse News
Kalshi Faces New York Shutdown Threat as CFTC Steps In: What Happens Next?
Kalshi Faces New York Shutdown Threat as CFTC Steps In: What Happens Next? KuCoin
Kalshi Eyes $40 Billion Valuation: Are Prediction Markets Becoming the Next Big Trading Boom?
Kalshi Eyes $40 Billion Valuation: Are Prediction Markets Becoming the Next Big Trading Boom? KuCoin
Baltimore sues prediction markets as 4th Circuit weighs state case
Baltimore sues prediction markets as 4th Circuit weighs state case Maryland Daily Record
Mississippi State Football Players Land In Hot Water Over Less Than $70 In Prediction Market Trades
Mississippi State Football Players Land In Hot Water Over Less Than $70 In Prediction Market Trades BroBible
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, roping Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull into the fight
Mayor Brandon Scott and the Baltimore City Council sued Kalshi, Polymarket and major trading platforms over alleged illegal sports betting.
FlightAware Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi Just One Day After Filing It
FlightAware Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi Just One Day After Filing It The Sports Geek
Prediction markets aren't magic
Prediction markets aren't magic Silver Bulletin
Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket - WBAL-TV
Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket WBAL-TV
Fliff, Onyx Seek FCM Registration in Pivot From Sweeps to Prediction Markets
The social sportsbooks join a growing group of companies with sweepstakes roots pursuing different routes into the fast-growing event contract sector. As regulatory pressure mounts on sweepstakes gaming across the U.S., Fliff and Onyx Odds are turning toward the federal derivatives framework as a potential new avenue for growth.
New York City Says Prediction Market Ads May Be Deceptive. 4 Companies Have 14 Days to Answer
New York City Says Prediction Market Ads May Be Deceptive. 4 Companies Have 14 Days to Answer inc.com
Prediction Markets Flag Dozens of Suspected Insider Traders as CFTC Enforcement Lags
Kalshi has flagged over 50 traders in 2026, while Polymarket has flagged over 90. Still, the CFTC has brought action against only three people so far.
Baltimore sues Kalshi, Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting, prediction markets
Baltimore sues Kalshi, Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting, prediction markets WBFF
Novig Announces ‘Responsible Trading Framework’ For Its Prediction Market, Including Minimum Age Of 21
Prediction markets news roundup: New York City Council is investigating Kalshi and Polymarket, while Baltimore sues the two companies.

TSG Invest Updates Kalshi Analysis Following $22B Series F
TSG Invest Updates Kalshi Analysis Following $22B Series F citybiz
Kalshi in talks with Sequoia, Wellington for $750 million fund raise at $40 billion valuation
Why This Prediction Market Banned Teens
Why This Prediction Market Banned Teens WIRED
Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets
Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets CNBC
Apex Fintech Solutions and Kalshi Power New Era of Prediction Markets Access
Apex Fintech Solutions and Kalshi Power New Era of Prediction Markets Access businesswire.com
Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000
Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000 Benzinga
Jimmy Butler Trade Market Hovering Around 50-50 at Kalshi
Jimmy Butler's trade price on Kalshi sits above 50%.
NYC Council launching investigation, considers laws it can pass regulating how prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi and others advertise in city
NYC Council launching investigation, considers laws it can pass regulating how prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi and others advertise in city amNewYork
Goat herding hedge: How Susquehanna and Kalshi are helping this company offset a change in California law
Goat herding hedge: How Susquehanna and Kalshi are helping this company offset a change in California law CNBC

New York Kalshi Lawsuit Escalates as AG Rejects CFTC Shield
New York Kalshi Lawsuit Escalates as AG Rejects CFTC Shield The Cryptonomist
How Kalshi and CBOE are racing to build a $100 trillion compute futures market
How Kalshi and CBOE are racing to build a $100 trillion compute futures market fortune.com
Report: NCAA Flags 2 Mississippi State Football Players for Kalshi Sports Trades
Report: NCAA Flags 2 Mississippi State Football Players for Kalshi Sports Trades Yahoo Sports
MLB Prediction Market Promos Today, August 12: Kalshi, Polymarket Offers for Mariners-Yankees
MLB Prediction Market Promos Today, August 12: Kalshi, Polymarket Offers for Mariners-Yankees FantasyLabs
Nevada problem gambling council moves to cut ties with national group over Kalshi partnership
Nevada problem gambling council moves to cut ties with national group over Kalshi partnership Focus Gaming News
Kalshi In Talks For New Funding At $40B Valuation As Revenue Surges
Kalshi In Talks For New Funding At $40B Valuation As Revenue Surges Bitcoin World
Prediction markets should dial back faulty filings for incentives to boost trading: CFTC
Kalshi taps DoubleZero for Wall Street-style high-speed data feed
Kalshi taps DoubleZero for Wall Street-style high-speed data feed CoinDesk
Polymarket and Kalshi Now Face NYC Probe Over ‘Deceptive’ Ads
Polymarket and Kalshi Now Face NYC Probe Over ‘Deceptive’ Ads New York Magazine
Jeff Bandman returns to Kalshi as CEO of Kalshi Prime
Jeff Bandman returns to Kalshi as CEO of Kalshi Prime Kalshi News
Pikkit users to gain access to ProphetX's sports prediction market exchange
Pikkit users to gain access to ProphetX's sports prediction market exchange yogonet.com
CFTC steps in to protect Kalshi as New York pushes $36B lawsuit
CFTC steps in to protect Kalshi as New York pushes $36B lawsuit Yahoo Finance
Kalshi Strikes Strategic Partnership With Nasdaq
Kalshi Strikes Strategic Partnership With Nasdaq Gaming America
FlightAware Drops Kalshi Suit Over Data Use Day After Filing It
FlightAware Drops Kalshi Suit Over Data Use Day After Filing It Bloomberg Law News
CFTC orders Kalshi to keep operating in $36B New York fight
CFTC orders Kalshi to keep operating in $36B New York fight Crypto News
Bitcoin’s $120M Betting War Draws a Brutal Map for 2026 Prices
Bitcoin-focused prediction markets are pricing a turbulent 2026, with bettors expecting sharp swings but treating six-figure prices as a distant long shot. Bitcoin was trading near $63,500 when the markets were measured at 1:30 p.m.
FlightAware Dropped Its Lawsuit Against Kalshi After Just One Day
FlightAware Dropped Its Lawsuit Against Kalshi After Just One Day engadget.com
Yankees become first MLB team to name Polymarket as prediction market partner
Yankees become first MLB team to name Polymarket as prediction market partner CBS Sports
CFTC Orders Kalshi To Continue Operating In New York
CFTC Orders Kalshi To Continue Operating In New York LegalSportsReport
NYC Council investigating Polymarket, Kalshi marketing tactics, social harms
NYC Council investigating Polymarket, Kalshi marketing tactics, social harms The Washington Post
CFTC Cites Bitcoin Position in Emergency Order Shielding Kalshi
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered Kalshi to keep running its exchange after finding that New York’s attempt to stop the platform presented a market emergency. The commission cited a hypothetical bitcoin position to argue that forced liquidation could spread losses well beyond prediction markets.
FlightAware Drops Suit Against Kalshi Day After Filing It
FlightAware Drops Suit Against Kalshi Day After Filing It Bloomberg Law News
Nevada Problem Gambling Council to Leave NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership
Nevada Problem Gambling Council to Leave NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership PlayUSA
Trump sued over Truth Social’s early-access feed as firm explores licensing data to prediction markets
A new lawsuit alleges Trump’s paid Truth Social feed unconstitutionally restricts access to official posts.
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket has hired the Bird, Uber and Lyft blitzscaling veteran Travis VanderZanden as chief growth officer.
CFTC Issues Emergency Order to Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite NY Lawsuit
CFTC Issues Emergency Order to Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite NY Lawsuit PYMNTS.com
Polymarket let users bet on wildfires. Lawmakers warn that could spur arson.
FlightAware drops Kalshi lawsuit one day after filing
FlightAware drops Kalshi lawsuit one day after filing TradingView
New York City Council probing Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction markets over marketing claims
New York City Council probing Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction markets over marketing claims CBS News
SKALE Labs Launches Agent Pit: A Simulated Prediction Market for AI Trading Agents
SKALE Labs Launches Agent Pit: A Simulated Prediction Market for AI Trading Agents CryptoRank

Kalshi taps Solana platform for Wall Street-style high-speed data feed
New York City Council opens probe into prediction market platforms
The NYC Council has opened a probe into prediction market platforms over alleged "false, deceptive, or abusive marketing tactics."
TNB Tech Minute: New York City Launches Prediction Markets Investigation
TNB Tech Minute: New York City Launches Prediction Markets Investigation WSJ
NYC Council is investigating Polymarket, Kalshi, and rivals over deceptive marketing
NYC Council is investigating Polymarket, Kalshi, and rivals over deceptive marketing qz.com
FlightAware ends Kalshi federal lawsuit without prejudice
FlightAware ends Kalshi federal lawsuit without prejudice readwrite.com
SKALE launches Agent Pit to let builders train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain.
Cerebras Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Andrew Feldman Say?
NYC Council Probes Prediction Markets Over Alleged Deceptive Marketing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini Titan have been asked to disclose details about their users, advertising practices and influencer marketing. The New York City Council has launched an investigation into four major prediction market platforms over their advertising practices and potential targeting of minors, adding another front…
New York City Council investigating prediction markets' marketing practices
The New York City Council announced Wednesday it is investigating four prediction markets for alleged “predatory marketing practices” targeting young people. Council Speaker Julie Menin sent letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini Titan on Monday, requesting more information about their advertising in New York City.
TNB Tech Minute: New York City Launches Prediction Markets Investigatio
TNB Tech Minute: New York City Launches Prediction Markets Investigatio WSJ
Gambling and Prediction Market Interests Pour Millions Into Florida Elections, Largely to Donalds
Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds has attracted donations from prediction markets, gaming operators and the Seminole Tribe. Gambling companies and tribal gaming stakeholders have poured more than $12 million into Florida politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as sportsbook operators and prediction market companies…
FlightAware Drops Kalshi Lawsuit One Day After Filing as Kalshi Removes Its Name
The abrupt dismissal leaves unanswered whether the dispute was resolved privately and what it could mean for prediction markets’ reliance on third-party data. FlightAware abruptly abandoned its legal challenge against Kalshi before the case reached a courtroom, as the prediction market removed the flight tracker’s name from key…
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating as New York Seeks Shutdown
The regulator says New York’s attempt to stop Kalshi from offering event contracts threatens to disrupt derivatives markets nationwide. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued an emergency order to require Kalshi to continue operating in New York, even if a state court rules that the platform must shut down operations…
California lawmakers call for crackdown on wildfire betting on prediction markets
California lawmakers call for crackdown on wildfire betting on prediction markets CBS News
Coinbase, Polymarket, Kalshi Face NYC Prediction Market Investigation
Kalshi first prediction market to stream full order books via DoubleZero
The move gives institutional traders direct access to Level 1 and Level 2 data without having to reconstruct the book from APIs.
FlightAware Quickly Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi
N.Y. City Council to investigation prediction market platforms
N.Y. City Council to investigation prediction market platforms upi.com
Morning Minute: The CFTC Bails Out Kalshi in NY
Morning Minute: The CFTC Bails Out Kalshi in NY Decrypt
New York City Probes Prediction Markets Over Ads, Social Harms
New York City Probes Prediction Markets Over Ads, Social Harms Bloomberg Law News
Nevada Problem Gambling Group Cuts Ties With NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership
Nevada Problem Gambling Group Cuts Ties With NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership iGamingToday.com
Kalshi Seeks Fresh Funding at $40 Billion Valuation
Kalshi Seeks Fresh Funding at $40 Billion Valuation bloomingbit
Article | CFTC invokes emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York
Article | CFTC invokes emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York POLITICO Pro
New York City Launches Sweeping Investigation Into Polymarket and Kalshi
New York City Launches Sweeping Investigation Into Polymarket and Kalshi WSJ
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Gambling Markets and Risk to Airline Safety
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Gambling Markets and Risk to Airline Safety PYOK
FlightAware drops Kalshi lawsuit over a market niche that data shows it never took off
MEMX Files to List Prediction Market-Style Bets on Earnings
Exchange operator MEMX is looking to become the latest financial exchange to compete with prediction markets by offering binary bets on corporate earnings metrics, according to a representative for the company.
NYC Council probes Polymarket over alleged predatory marketing practices
NYC Council probes Polymarket over alleged predatory marketing practices Reuters
New York City Probes Kalshi and Polymarket Over Social Harms
The New York City Council is probing the advertising practices of four major prediction market platforms, creating a new front in the legal battles facing the booming industry.
CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers to Keep Kalshi Trading Despite New York Suit
CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers to Keep Kalshi Trading Despite New York Suit Decrypt
No One Is Actually Betting On Wildfires, Despite All The Heat On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets roundup: CFTC tells Kalshi to keep operating as New York seeks to shut it down; update on FlightAware vs. Kalshi; Polymarket makes some key hires.

2 Mississippi State football players caught sports gambling on NFL, NBA
Documents show two Mississippi State football players were caught sports gambling on the Super Bowl and NBA using Kalshi in February.
New York City Council announces probe into prediction market platforms’ marketing strategies
In letters to four prediction market platforms, City Council Speaker Julie Menin said the council was also actively considering legislation to address concerns.
FlightAware withdraws Kalshi lawsuit after flight market dispute
FlightAware withdraws Kalshi lawsuit after flight market dispute Crypto News
Prediction market turf war: CFTC vs states over Kalshi
Prediction market turf war: CFTC vs states over Kalshi Crypto News
Federal Government Demands That Kalshi Keep Operating in New York State Despite Lawsuit
Federal Government Demands That Kalshi Keep Operating in New York State Despite Lawsuit Gizmodo
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Stay Open as New York Seeks $36 Billion
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Stay Open as New York Seeks $36 Billion Finance Magnates
Polymarket Is Suffering From a Terrible Comedown: Emily Nicolle
Polymarket Is Suffering From a Terrible Comedown: Emily Nicolle Bloomberg Law News
Prediction market growth has skyrocketed as critics worry of addiction
Prediction market growth has skyrocketed as critics worry of addiction Bergen Record
FlightAware withdraws lawsuit against Kalshi over flight-cancellation markets
FlightAware withdraws lawsuit against Kalshi over flight-cancellation markets SRN News
Polymarket Is Suffering From a Terrible World Cup Comedown
Polymarket Is Suffering From a Terrible World Cup Comedown Bloomberg.com
FlightAware Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi One Day After Filing
FlightAware Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi One Day After Filing Bitcoin World
Prediction markets to allow betting on cancer trials
Prediction markets to allow betting on cancer trials moneywise.com
CFTC invokes emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York fight
CFTC invokes emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York fight TradingView
‘Profiting off misery.' Lawmakers push back on Polymarket bets on deadly LA wildfires
‘Profiting off misery.' Lawmakers push back on Polymarket bets on deadly LA wildfires NBC Los Angeles
A Flight Tracking Service Is Suing Kalshi For Using Its Data Without Authorization
A Flight Tracking Service Is Suing Kalshi For Using Its Data Without Authorization Engadget
Predictions realized: Regulators and enforcement authorities dial up the heat on prediction markets while event contracts expand into clinical trial outcomes and FDA approvals - what companies need to know
Predictions realized: Regulators and enforcement authorities dial up the heat on prediction markets while event contracts expand into clinical trial outcomes and FDA approvals - what companies need to know www.hlc.com
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Unauthorized Use of Its Flight Data
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Unauthorized Use of Its Flight Data startupfortune.com
Polymarket Sues Massachusetts As Prediction Market Battle Splits Federal And State Courts
Polymarket Sues Massachusetts As Prediction Market Battle Splits Federal And State Courts Yellow.com
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite New York Suit (1)
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite New York Suit (1) news.bloomberglaw.com
There’s A Lot Of Polymarket On MLB TV
There’s A Lot Of Polymarket On MLB TV The Closing Line
Connecticut Judge Says Kalshi Sports Contracts Were Never Swaps
A federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut regulators, holding that its sports-event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, so the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction never attached. Coinbase Financial Markets lost a companion motion on the same reasoning despite never having…
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite New York Suit
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite New York Suit Bloomberg.com
CFTC flexes emergency authority to keep Kalshi operating amid New York lawsuit
The CFTC flexed its emergency authority and ordered Kalshi to keep operating after the platform was sued last month in New York.
‘Significant overreach’: Prediction market responds to lawsuit from NY Attorney General
‘Significant overreach’: Prediction market responds to lawsuit from NY Attorney General NEWS10 ABC
TNB Tech Minute: Flight-Tracking Platform Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Bets
TNB Tech Minute: Flight-Tracking Platform Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Bets WSJ
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Unauthorized Use of Flight Cancellation Data in New York: 17 outlets compared
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Unauthorized Use of Flight Cancellation Data in New York: 17 outlets compared NewsCord
Official: Lazio Rescind Their Contract With Polymarket
Lazio have announced that their collaboration with their main jersey sponsor, Polymarket, has reached a premature end due to the company’s legal troubles in Italy.The BackgroundThe Serie A club rema...
Is betting on elections using prediction markets illegal? Many states are unsure as midterms approach
Twenty-three states have laws banning betting on elections, according to Pew Research. Not every state is sure these rules apply to prediction market trades.
Kalshi Adds Albany Lobbyists During Legal Fight With NY Leaders
Kalshi Adds Albany Lobbyists During Legal Fight With NY Leaders Bloomberg Law News
FlightAware Sues Kalshi: Someone Is Making Money When Your Flight Gets Canceled
FlightAware Sues Kalshi: Someone Is Making Money When Your Flight Gets Canceled Men's Journal
Eight states now have authority to ban or restrict Kalshi
Eight states now have authority to ban or restrict Kalshi CDC Gaming
Kalshi asks judge again to block Utah from taking action against it
Kalshi asks judge again to block Utah from taking action against it FOX 13 News Utah
Kalshi CEO slams founders for being over-reliant on ‘mostly trash’ business advice
Kalshi CEO slams founders for being over-reliant on ‘mostly trash’ business advice Fortune
Questions Mount Over NCPG Legitimacy Following Kalshi Partnership
Questions Mount Over NCPG Legitimacy Following Kalshi Partnership SCCG Management
FlightAware Files Lawsuit Against Kalshi, Alleging Unauthorized Use of Data for Flight-Cancellation Markets
FlightAware Files Lawsuit Against Kalshi, Alleging Unauthorized Use of Data for Flight-Cancellation Markets Crowdfund Insider
Two Prediction Markets Shut Down Hours Apart as Kalshi and Polymarket Take 93% of Volume
Two Prediction Markets Shut Down Hours Apart as Kalshi and Polymarket Take 93% of Volume The Defiant
Flight-Tracking Platform Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Prediction Markets
Flight-Tracking Platform Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Prediction Markets WSJ
Kalshi Parlay Bettors Lose More Than Headline Numbers Show — Money Betting Against Them is Masking it
Bloomberg reports Kalshi parlay players losing as much as $294 million since the start of the year, but the actual number is probably a lot more. Gambling Insider investigates.
Exclusive: River Markets announces $8.5 million seed round to build prediction market trading tools for institutions
Exclusive: River Markets announces $8.5 million seed round to build prediction market trading tools for institutions Fortune
FlightAware sues Kalshi over flight cancellation prediction markets
FlightAware says that Kalshi used its name and data to offer bets on flight cancellations without the flight tracker's permission.
Kalshi CEO slams founders for being over-reliant on ‘mostly trash’ business advice—he founded his now-$22 billion prediction market as a college grad
Kalshi’s 30-year-old CEO says most business advice is ‘trash’—he doesn’t read management books or listen to podcasts: ‘I’m gonna make it up as I go’
Buzz of the Week: Should Utah block Kalshi entirely?
Buzz of the Week: Should Utah block Kalshi entirely? The Salt Lake Tribune
Kalshi partners with Nasdaq to reinforce oversight of trading activity
Kalshi partners with Nasdaq to reinforce oversight of trading activity The TRADE
Polymarket makes moves to get house in order before expected boom times for prediction markets this fall
The marketing changes come amid an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission into the company's promotional practices.
Official: Lazio forced to terminate sponsorship deal with Polymarket
Official: Lazio forced to terminate sponsorship deal with Polymarket Yahoo Sports
Kalshi faces FlightAware lawsuit over cancellation markets
Kalshi faces FlightAware lawsuit over cancellation markets ReadWrite
Kalshi Sued Over Bets On Flight Cancellations
Knicks on Christmas? Kalshi Market For New York's Opponent on X-Mas
Event contract markets are open on Kalshi for the New York Knicks opponent on Christmas Day.
FlightAware Claims Kalshi Uses Its Data for Cancellation Market
FlightAware Claims Kalshi Uses Its Data for Cancellation Market Bloomberg Law News
Nevada problem gambling group cuts ties with national organization over Kalshi deal
Nevada problem gambling group cuts ties with national organization over Kalshi deal Nevada Current
IHA Gives Racing Protection Against Prediction Markets
IHA Gives Racing Protection Against Prediction Markets bloodhorse.com
Connecticut Judge Finds Kalshi Sports Contracts Are Not Swaps, Rejects Preemption Bid
The federal court decides that Kalshi is unlikely to prevail on either of its central legal arguments, while noting that sports generated up to 90% of the prediction market’s revenue. A Connecticut federal judge has denied Kalshi’s request to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against the prediction market, finding that its…
White House to Senate: Pass Clarity Act by Sept. 15 or Never
The White House says the Senate has until September 15 to advance the Clarity Act after Democrats blocked a procedural vote before the August recess, with prediction markets now pricing roughly a one in four chance the bill becomes law in 2026. A Hard Deadline From the White House Patrick Witt, executive director of the […]
Kalshi lands in hot water over flight prediction markets
Kalshi lands in hot water over flight prediction markets iGaming Expert
How a new FlightAware lawsuit threatens Kalshi’s cancellation bets
How a new FlightAware lawsuit threatens Kalshi’s cancellation bets CoinDesk
ProphetX Expands B2B Prediction Market Push With Pikkit Partnership
ProphetX Expands B2B Prediction Market Push With Pikkit Partnership Casino.org
Judge stays CFTC’s case against US soldier over prediction market bets
Judge stays CFTC’s case against US soldier over prediction market bets TradingView
FlightAware sues Kalshi over bets on flight cancellations
New York misses the mark on prediction markets
New York misses the mark on prediction markets New York Daily News
Prediction Markets for Texas Senate Election After Latest Poll
Prediction Markets for Texas Senate Election After Latest Poll Federal News Network
'Really difficult path' to legislation on prediction markets, Johnson says
'Really difficult path' to legislation on prediction markets, Johnson says SDPB
FlightAware sues Kalshi over alleged unauthorized data use for flight cancellation markets
FlightAware is also seeking a temporary restraining order to bar Kalshi from activities involving the flight-tracking site.
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight-Cancellation Markets
Prediction markets roundup: Kalshi suffers another setback in federal court, this time in Connecticut; DraftKings self-certifies parlays; Kalshi partners with Nasdaq on market surveillance.

FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Misuse Of Flight Cancellation Data
FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Misuse Of Flight Cancellation Data Bitcoin World
Yankees Name Polymarket Official Prediction Market Partner Despite New York Legal Fight
Yankees Name Polymarket Official Prediction Market Partner Despite New York Legal Fight FOX Sports Radio New Jersey
Kalshi brings in former U.S. solicitor general as Washington state gambling case escalates
Kalshi brings in former U.S. solicitor general as Washington state gambling case escalates GeekWire
Kalshi Partners with Nasdaq to Bolster Trade Surveillance
Kalshi Partners with Nasdaq to Bolster Trade Surveillance GV Wire
Novig Sues New York to Shield Its Prediction Market
Novig Sues New York to Shield Its Prediction Market communitynews.org
Anthony Richardson Trade Market Steady on Kalshi
Kalshi continues to point towards Anthony Richardson being traded from the Indianapolis Colts.
Kalshi Partners With Nasdaq Market Surveillance
Kalshi Partners With Nasdaq Market Surveillance Kalshi News
Kalshi Relationship Surfaces Concerns About NCPG’s Legitimacy
The National Council on Problem Gambling defends its Kalshi partnership by calling prediction markets the ‘latest evolution of gambling-like platforms.’ Almost three months after the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) announced Kalshi as the first member of its new Financial Services & Trading vertical, questions mount about the…
Prediction Market Volume Rebounds Above $10 Billion as Politics Surges Ahead of NFL Season
Prediction Market Volume Rebounds Above $10 Billion as Politics Surges Ahead of NFL Season DeFi Rate
Kalshi Adopts Nasdaq Market Surveillance To Strengthen Prediction Market Oversight
Kalshi Adopts Nasdaq Market Surveillance To Strengthen Prediction Market Oversight Pulse 2.0
ProphetX and Pikkit Bring CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Markets to the Pikkit Community
ProphetX and Pikkit Bring CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Markets to the Pikkit Community PR Newswire
Kalshi Geofencing, Earnings, NFL Preseason Lead Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
Michigan and Nevada are set to become the first two states to force Kalshi to geofence its platform, marking a new phase in the fight over prediction market sports contracts. Prediction markets continue to drive the gambling industry news this week, with enforcement measures taking effect in Michigan and Nevada, court conferences…
DraftKings Q2 Profitability Falls but Predictions Growth Outpaces Expectations
Despite a significant dip in second-quarter profitability, DraftKings’ prediction market volume has climbed nearly fivefold since April, with management expecting customer growth to accelerate further during the NFL season. Profits at DraftKings fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 as unfavorable sports results and higher…
Vault: K Street bearish on prediction market limits
Vault: K Street bearish on prediction market limits punchbowl.news
Kalshi ties up with Nasdaq to bolster trade surveillance
Prediction Markets Now Have Texas Senate Race a Dead Heat
Prediction Markets Now Have Texas Senate Race a Dead Heat gambling911.com
Prediction Markets Have Lawmakers Rattled. Real-Money Betting Sites Are Watching Closely
Prediction Markets Have Lawmakers Rattled. Real-Money Betting Sites Are Watching Closely MarylandReporter.com
Prediction Markets Explode, Circle Has Hot Q2, and More
This week’s stories highlighted regulatory delays, security concerns, institutional growth, and market experimentation. The Senate pushed the CLARITY Act vote to September, while a Bitcoin security team uncovered thousands of potential flaws across open-source projects.
Kalshi Enforces Rules Against Insider Trading on Political Prediction Markets
Kalshi Enforces Rules Against Insider Trading on Political Prediction Markets sekbernews.id
Does Wealthsimple want to add sports, politics to its new prediction markets product?
Does Wealthsimple want to add sports, politics to its new prediction markets product? CHAT News Today
Kalshi’s C.E.O. Isn’t Interested in Management Advice
Kalshi’s C.E.O. Isn’t Interested in Management Advice The New York Times
Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour Isn’t Interested in Management Advice
Tarek Mansour co-founded the fast-growing prediction market company shortly after graduating from M.I.T., aiming to provide a “mathematical, objective” view of the world.
The music casino: How prediction markets are threatening Spotify’s No. 1
The music casino: How prediction markets are threatening Spotify’s No. 1 EL PAÍS English
Kalshi cracks down on insider trading as Trump family looks to increase prediction market presence
Kalshi cracks down on insider trading as Trump family looks to increase prediction market presence Fortune

Polymarket TWAP Switch Follows $8.2M Manipulation Study
Polymarket TWAP Switch Follows $8.2M Manipulation Study financefeeds.com
Novig Sues New York as Sports Prediction Market Launches Nationwide
Novig Sues New York as Sports Prediction Market Launches Nationwide Casino.org
Gate DexBuilder Launches First Event Contracts Builder, Unveils $3 Million Grant Program to Accelerate Market Ecosystem
Gate, a leading global digital asset platform, today announced that Gate DexBuilder, its DEX infrastructure platform, has officially launched its first Event Contracts Builder, alongside a $3 million grant program. The initiative provides project teams, developers, communities, and Web3 applications worldwide with one-stop event contract…
Bitcoin Price Eyes $67.5K as Kalshi Traders Turn Bullish
Bitcoin Price Eyes $67.5K as Kalshi Traders Turn Bullish Coinpedia
Brian Lehrer Weekend: Kalshi Suit; Europe's Fires; Our Social-Media Lives
Brian Lehrer Weekend: Kalshi Suit; Europe's Fires; Our Social-Media Lives WNYC
Kalshi Predicts College GameDay Locations For The 2026 Season
Kalshi lists prices for potential College GameDay locations this season.
Genius Sports Now Settles Contracts for Both Kalshi and Polymarket
Genius Sports signed official-data, integrity, and marketing agreements with Polymarket on Aug. 4 and Kalshi on Aug.
Regulating the Prediction Market Boom
Regulating the Prediction Market Boom The Regulatory Review
Polymarket Adopts TWAP Settlement To Combat Price Manipulation In Crypto Markets
Polymarket Adopts TWAP Settlement To Combat Price Manipulation In Crypto Markets Bitcoin World
Manifold Markets Review August 2026: How It Works & Is It Legit?
Manifold Markets Review August 2026: How It Works & Is It Legit? Gaming Today
DraftKings' Prediction Market Push Shows Early Growth
DraftKings' Prediction Market Push Shows Early Growth Covers.com
Prediction markets allow bets on success of medical trials
Prediction markets allow bets on success of medical trials themarysue.com
Yankees Sign Polymarket as New York Sues Prediction Markets
Yankees Sign Polymarket as New York Sues Prediction Markets sbcamericas.com
Polymarket’s moves in baseball, tennis
Polymarket’s moves in baseball, tennis Sports Business Journal
Dylan Cease Passes Cam Schlittler in AL Cy Young Prediction Market
Kalshi now prices Dylan Cease ahead of Cam Schlittler to win the AL Cy Young.
The CFTC is Now Telling Prediction Markets How to Avoid Resembling a Sportsbook
The CFTC is Now Telling Prediction Markets How to Avoid Resembling a Sportsbook Better Markets
Prediction markets take center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports
Prediction markets take center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports CNBC
DraftKings’ Prediction Markets Push Is Reshaping Its National Growth Strategy
DraftKings’ Prediction Markets Push Is Reshaping Its National Growth Strategy PYMNTS.com
Dems Warn Prediction Markets Allowing Bets on Wildfires Threaten Public Safety
Dems Warn Prediction Markets Allowing Bets on Wildfires Threaten Public Safety Truthout
DraftKings CEO: Prediction Markets Are ‘Peer-to-Wall Street’
The biggest prediction market companies have been eager to position their products as “peer-to-peer,” pitting average Joes against other opinionated casuals. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins, who raved Friday to analysts about the underlying economics of his own predictions product, is taking a different approach.
CFTC Eyes Prediction-Market Conflicts of Interest: Key Points
At least six prediction market exchanges have conflicts of interest baked into their corporate structures via “affiliate relationships,” according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the nation’s federal betting regulator. The CFTC proposed rules last week meant to address a trend of companies owning both a prediction…
Kalshi urges judge to block Iowa from regulating prediction market
Kalshi urges judge to block Iowa from regulating prediction market Courthouse News
Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm Kalshi Market on to Stay With LIV is Live
Kalshi says there is a chance that Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm leave LIV Golf.
Polymarket Partners With On3 College Sports Media
Polymarket Partners With On3 College Sports Media Gaming America
DraftKings Blasts Prediction Bets on Earnings Calls Comments
DraftKings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Jason Robins said he doesn’t think it is good that bettors are placing prediction market wagers on what executives say on company earnings calls.
Genius Sports Expands into Prediction Markets Through Polymarket and Kalshi Deals
Genius Sports Expands into Prediction Markets Through Polymarket and Kalshi Deals Iredell Free News
Exclusive: Kalshi partners with 'Blanket' to help small businesses hedge against risk—with help from the guru of 'hypergamblification'
Exclusive: Kalshi partners with 'Blanket' to help small businesses hedge against risk—with help from the guru of 'hypergamblification' Fortune
Polymarket Bets On a Second Floor at Manhattan’s 78 Crosby Street
Polymarket Bets On a Second Floor at Manhattan’s 78 Crosby Street Commercial Observer
Where Are Prediction Markets Legal? State-by-State Availability in 2026
Where Are Prediction Markets Legal? State-by-State Availability in 2026 FOX Sports
Prediction market Polymarket overhauls rules after study finds fraud
Prediction market Polymarket overhauls rules after study finds fraud coindesk.com
How a five-second trick let traders drain millions from Polymarket
Exclusive: Kalshi launches ‘Blanket’ to help small businesses hedge against risk—with help from the guru of ‘hypergamblification’
Lauris Zminsky says "a lot of young people are embracing lottery-ticket economics" — but his new project with Kalshi is totally separate from that.
What Prediction Markets Say About 3 Struggling Brands Fighting to Survive
Kayvon Thibodeaux’s Next Team Trade Market Has Giants on Top
Kalshi now leans on Kayvon Thibodeaux staying with the New York Giants despite crowded depth chart.
New Consumer Advocacy Group “Sports Traders Union” Launches to Push Prediction Market Reforms
New Consumer Advocacy Group “Sports Traders Union” Launches to Push Prediction Market Reforms Bettors Insider

Hochul, Blakeman clash on Kalshi, childcare in NY governor's race
Hochul, Blakeman clash on Kalshi, childcare in NY governor's race Lohud
JPEG Trading's Kevin March on tokenized stocks, DeFi lending, and the future of prediction markets | CoinDesk Videos
JPEG Trading's Kevin March on tokenized stocks, DeFi lending, and the future of prediction markets | CoinDesk Videos CoinDesk
Polymarket expands MLB footprint with New York Yankees partnership
Polymarket expands MLB footprint with New York Yankees partnership SportsMint Media
We Might Be Able To Bet On Prediction Market Trading Volume?
Prediction markets roundup: Polymarket signs deal with MLB’s New York Yankees; DraftKings reports Q2; Kalshi has a new commercial.

Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly' NPR
‘Applesauce’: Michigan judge denies Coinbase bid to block state enforcement of sports event contracts
"Coinbase's averments are, in a word, applesauce," U.S. District Judge Shalina Kumar wrote in Thursday's ruling.
Yankees reach agreement to make Polymarket team's official prediction market partner
Yankees reach agreement to make Polymarket team's official prediction market partner Fox Business
Polymarket partners with ATP Tour and becomes official prediction market provider
Polymarket partners with ATP Tour and becomes official prediction market provider iGaming Brazil
Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi Lawsuit in Utah
Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi Lawsuit in Utah TheLines.com
Richard Warr Explains Prediction Market Political Wagering for WSHU
Richard Warr Explains Prediction Market Political Wagering for WSHU NC State Poole College of Management
Kalshi Partners With Comply to Boost Prediction Market Compliance for Financial Firms
Kalshi Partners With Comply to Boost Prediction Market Compliance for Financial Firms Bonus.com
OPINION: Congress must stop the prediction market gambling loophole
OPINION: Congress must stop the prediction market gambling loophole CDC Gaming
Utah secures victory in lawsuit over its prop betting law; prediction market plans to appeal
Utah secures victory in lawsuit over its prop betting law; prediction market plans to appeal KSL.com
CME Keeps 51% of Fanduel Predicts but Loses Its Sports Business
Flutter Entertainment will route every sports and novelty contract on Fanduel Predicts to Crypto.com’s exchange, leaving CME Group with only the financial markets on a venture CME majority-owns. The move comes three weeks after CME’s chief executive told analysts that many sports prediction markets amount to gambling.
Polymarket Signs Sponsorship Deal With Yankees
Polymarket Signs Sponsorship Deal With Yankees Briefs Finance
Senators Push CFTC to Ban Wildfire Bets on Prediction Markets
Senators Push CFTC to Ban Wildfire Bets on Prediction Markets Decrypt
Kalshi’s Chief Counsel Defends The Prediction Market Platform After New York State Attorney General Sues
Kalshi’s Chief Counsel Defends The Prediction Market Platform After New York State Attorney General Sues inc.com
Kalshi Explains Itself—and Serves the World’s Longest Sandwich
Kalshi Explains Itself—and Serves the World’s Longest Sandwich musebyclios.com
DraftKings Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Traders Bet Robins Won't Say 'Kalshi'
DraftKings Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Traders Bet Robins Won't Say 'Kalshi' benzinga.com
Prediction Markets Raise Financial Concerns as Borrowing Fuels Trading
Prediction Markets Raise Financial Concerns as Borrowing Fuels Trading Casino.org
Tribal Gaming Warn Prediction Markets Threaten Revenue
Tribal Gaming Warn Prediction Markets Threaten Revenue Legis1
Judge allows Utah to enforce antigambling laws on Kalshi
Judge allows Utah to enforce antigambling laws on Kalshi The Hill
NYS Sues Kalshi
NYS Sues Kalshi WNYC
Exclusive / Kalshi banks on its predictions’ accuracy
Exclusive / Kalshi banks on its predictions’ accuracy Semafor
Polymarket Named Prediction Market Partner of New York Yankees
Polymarket Named Prediction Market Partner of New York Yankees sports.yahoo.com
Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app exposes gaps in Canada’s gambling protections
Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app exposes gaps in Canada’s gambling protections theconversation.com
Genius Sports Expands Prediction Market Push With Kalshi, Polymarket Deals
The sports technology provider will supply official settlement data and integrity services to both exchanges, while Polymarket will also receive live streaming rights for selected competitions. Genius Sports has struck separate deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, expanding its presence in the prediction market sector.
Yankees Are Polymarket’s Latest Big Sports Swing
Yankees Are Polymarket’s Latest Big Sports Swing Front Office Sports
Maine elections have become a $42M hotbed for betting on Polymarket and Kalshi
Maine elections have become a $42M hotbed for betting on Polymarket and Kalshi Seacoastonline.com
Traders on Kalshi now think it's likely that the S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026
The rise in odds come after the broad index hit record highs in a more than 5% four-day rally that ended Wednesday.
Panthers vs Cardinals Kalshi Prediction Market Movement for Hall of Fame Game
Kalshi is leaning on the Carolina Panthers over the Arizona Cardinals in the NFL Hall of Fame Game.
Tribal Leaders Warn Congress Prediction Markets Bypass IGRA
Tribal representatives urged Congress to protect state and tribal gaming authority. They argued that sports-event contracts operate like bets without equivalent regulatory safeguards.
Yankees first MLB club to land Polymarket as sponsor
Yankees first MLB club to land Polymarket as sponsor Sports Business Journal
New York's Kalshi lawsuit takes on partisan edge
New York's Kalshi lawsuit takes on partisan edge Times Union
El-Sayed Wins Michigan Senate Primary: Prediction Markets for Michigan Senate Election
El-Sayed Wins Michigan Senate Primary: Prediction Markets for Michigan Senate Election Federal News Network
Yankees and Polymarket come together on surprising partnership despite murky future
Yankees and Polymarket come together on surprising partnership despite murky future New York Post
Polymarket Becomes An Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees
Polymarket Becomes An Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees PR Newswire
Every Arch Manning Prediction Market on Kalshi: Heisman, No. 1 Pick, More
Kalshi backs a breakout season for Arch Manning based on his current market prices.
Strange Bet Fellows: FanDuel and CME’s Latest Joint-Venture Twist
FanDuel and CME Group are revising their prediction market joint-venture so that all sports-related bets placed on the FanDuel Predicts brokerage app will be executed via Crypto.com’s Nadex exchange instead of CME. To date, CME has executed single-leg sports bets placed in FanDuel Predicts, while the app incorporated Nadex in June to…
Kalshi deal pulls Comply into prediction market oversight
Kalshi deal pulls Comply into prediction market oversight FinTech Global
Roobet enters the prediction market space with new integrated feature
Roobet enters the prediction market space with new integrated feature WIN.GG
The 15-Minute-ification Of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets roundup: What FanDuel’s Q2 earnings revealed about its prediction market business; Utah weighs its next steps in court battle.

New Prediction Market Consumer Group Demands Reforms
A new consumer advocacy group called the Sports Traders Union is launching with hopes of adding a voice to the prediction market discourse that won’t be dismissed as a lobbying puppet. The group, unveiling Thursday, is primarily made up of professional bettors with prominent social media presences who actively use many of the top…
Utah Judge Rejects Kalshi’s Federal Shield From Gambling Laws
A federal judge granted Utah summary judgment Tuesday, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt the state’s anti-gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts. The exchange says it will appeal to the Tenth Circuit, which would bring prediction-market appeals into seven of the 13 federal circuits.
Kalshi Loses Anti-Gambling Lawsuit In Utah - Poker News
Kalshi Loses Anti-Gambling Lawsuit In Utah - Poker News Card Player
Senate Panel Puts Tribal Gaming and Prediction Markets Under the Microscope
Senate Panel Puts Tribal Gaming and Prediction Markets Under the Microscope nativenewsonline.net
American lawmakers have warned that allowing prediction markets where people can bet on wildfires could encourage arson.
American lawmakers have warned that allowing prediction markets where people can bet on wildfires could encourage arson. GIGAZINE

Federal judge lets Utah enforce its anti-gambling laws on the prediction market Kalshi
Federal judge lets Utah enforce its anti-gambling laws on the prediction market Kalshi Bozeman Daily Chronicle
Could prediction markets affect elections? Texas lawmakers take a closer look
Could prediction markets affect elections? Texas lawmakers take a closer look KXAN Austin
On3 and Polymarket Announce Exclusive Prediction Market Partnership
On3 and Polymarket Announce Exclusive Prediction Market Partnership On3
Pour a Scotch, we’re talking clinical trials and prediction markets
Pour a Scotch, we’re talking clinical trials and prediction markets The Cancer Letter
Kalshi's prediction markets are subject to Utah’s anti-gambling law, judge rules
Kalshi's prediction markets are subject to Utah’s anti-gambling law, judge rules St. George News
After Kalshi ruling, Utah considers enforcement action against predictive markets
After Kalshi ruling, Utah considers enforcement action against predictive markets FOX 13 News Utah
How Prediction Markets Finally Broke Through
Traces prediction markets from Renaissance papal betting through the 2024 election boom, and explains why early attempts like Intrade and Augur failed while Kalshi and Polymarket finally broke through. Covers the saver, gambler, and sharp participant problem at the core of prediction market design, and sketches where the industry is…
$43M Regulatory Gap in Asia's Prediction Markets
Compares how the US, UK, EU, and Japan built regulatory pathways for prediction markets while Asian jurisdictions have none. Estimates South Korea forgoes up to $43M in annual tax revenue as $52M flows through offshore platforms into its election markets, and lays out three paths forward: gambling law, derivatives law, or a new third…

Kalshi Defends Plan to Bet on Lives of Cancer Patients
Kalshi Defends Plan to Bet on Lives of Cancer Patients Futurism
New York Sues Prediction Market KalshiEX, Charging It Runs Illegal Gambling Operation
New York Sues Prediction Market KalshiEX, Charging It Runs Illegal Gambling Operation rcbizjournal.com
JJ McCarthy Trade Prediction Market Continues Trending Up
Kalshi continues to favor JJ McCarthy is a trade candidate from the Minnesota Vikings.
Kalshi loses in court to Utah. Can Utahns still bet on prediction markets?
CME, FanDuel Venture Falters as Prediction Startups Race Ahead
CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are scaling back a joint effort to take on prediction market startups after failing to gain traction in a booming industry that has quickly come to represent a threat to both Wall Street exchanges and traditional sportsbooks.
Sam Schwartz Shares His Journey to Prediction Market Newsletter Author in Gambling Insider Q&A
From Georgetown to investment banking to prediction market startup to industry newsletter, Sam Schwartz sits down for a wide-ranging conversation. Prediction markets caught the eye of Sam Schwartz soon after he left his investment banking analyst position with HSBC in June 2024, not necessarily knowing what was next.
Kalshi Not Running 'a Casino' Says Head of Enforcement
Robert DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement and legal counsel, responded to a lawsuit brought New York State, saying that he is concerned about overreach coming from Attorney General Letitia James's office. DeNault defended Kalshi's operations saying that his company is platforming open marketplaces, not functioning as a casino or a…
Portland Trail Blazers Moving to to St. Louis? Here's What Kalshi Prediction Market Says
The Portland Trail Blazers relocation rumors opened a relocation market on Kalshi.
Senate Indian Affairs Roundtable Highlights Tribal Concerns Over Prediction Markets
Senate Indian Affairs Roundtable Highlights Tribal Concerns Over Prediction Markets Holland & Knight
Polymarket Seeks Investment at More Than $20B Valuation
Bloomberg's Todd Gillespie joins Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Deals." Polymarket is seeking to raise capital at a valuation of more than $20 billion, months after it closed an earlier round with new investment from hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co.
Attorney says Kalshi, Prediction Markets, are pushing the limits of federal law
Attorney says Kalshi, Prediction Markets, are pushing the limits of federal law WRGB
Professor Joshua Mitts on Prediction Markets and Informed Trading
Professor Joshua Mitts on Prediction Markets and Informed Trading Columbia Law School
Kalshi Court Fights Test Milbank’s Beefed Up Litigation Group
Kalshi Court Fights Test Milbank’s Beefed Up Litigation Group Bloomberg Law News
Genius Sports and Kalshi strike major official data, media and integrity partnership
Genius Sports and Kalshi strike major official data, media and integrity partnership Genius Sports
As prediction markets grow, CT comptroller warns of ‘dark side’
As prediction markets grow, CT comptroller warns of ‘dark side’ CT Mirror
Tribes urge Congress to clarify prediction market rules at Senate roundtable
Tribes urge Congress to clarify prediction market rules at Senate roundtable Tribal Business News
Flutter Names New CEO After Prediction Markets Upend Gaming (1)
Flutter Names New CEO After Prediction Markets Upend Gaming (1) news.bloomberglaw.com
ASIC Warns Australians to Avoid Unlicensed Offshore Prediction Markets
Australia’s financial regulator said no prediction market operator holds a license in the country. ASIC warned that users face all-or-nothing losses, insider trading risks and limited avenues for recovering their money.
Utah Becomes First State to Secure Final Federal Judgment Against Kalshi
The court sided with Utah, rejecting Kalshi’s claim that federal law supersedes state gambling regulation. A federal judge in Utah has become the first in the country to enter a final judgment rejecting Kalshi’s argument that federal commodities law prevents states from enforcing their gambling laws against the prediction market operator.
Apple’s New Lease Program, NY Sues Kalshi and the Latest on Australian’s Social Media Ban | Tech Today
Apple’s New Lease Program, NY Sues Kalshi and the Latest on Australian’s Social Media Ban | Tech Today CNET
Genius Sports and Kalshi strike official data and integrity partnership
Genius Sports and Kalshi strike official data and integrity partnership news.kalshi.com
Opinion: SAVE Act ignores prediction market influence; GOP forsakes conservatism
Opinion: SAVE Act ignores prediction market influence; GOP forsakes conservatism ajc.com
Are Kalshi’s sports betting contracts subject to Utah gambling law? What a judge ruled
Are Kalshi’s sports betting contracts subject to Utah gambling law? What a judge ruled Deseret News
Kalshi Markets Track AI, Space Bets
Kalshi Markets Track AI, Space Bets startuphub.ai
Michigan Senate Primary Shows Kalshi, Polymarket Better Be Careful About Calling Races In November
Prediction markets news roundup Aug. 5: Utah wins federal case against Kalshi; Polymarket seeks $20B valuation; Novig launches in 47 states; Kalshi launches Public Companies Hub.

Polls, prediction markets and Oklahoma politics: What you need to know this election season
Polls, prediction markets and Oklahoma politics: What you need to know this election season KOSU
No dice for Kalshi in federal lawsuit against Utah
No dice for Kalshi in federal lawsuit against Utah Courthouse News
Kalshi is subject to Utah’s anti-gambling law, judge rules
Kalshi is subject to Utah’s anti-gambling law, judge rules Utah News Dispatch
Phillies Surge in Mike Trout 2027 Next Team Trade Market on Kalshi
Mike Trout's next team market on Kalshi lists the Philadelphia Phillies as a potential destination.
State Of New York Sues Kalshi, Frames Company As "Illegal"
State Of New York Sues Kalshi, Frames Company As "Illegal" Black America Web
Kalshi is not immune to Utah’s ban on gambling, rules federal judge
Kalshi is not immune to Utah’s ban on gambling, rules federal judge KUER
SWAPS—Santos manipulated outcome of event contract for his own profit, settles with CFTC (Aug 4, 2026)
SWAPS—Santos manipulated outcome of event contract for his own profit, settles with CFTC (Aug 4, 2026) VitalLaw.com
Federal judge upholds Utah's gambling ban in Kalshi lawsuit
Federal judge upholds Utah's gambling ban in Kalshi lawsuit KUTV
DraftKings Prediction Markets Sued in South Carolina
DraftKings Prediction Markets Sued in South Carolina TheLines.com
Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson
Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson KPTV
Kalshi adds trade surveillance amid $36B lawsuit
Kalshi adds trade surveillance amid $36B lawsuit Crypto News
Sen Indian Affairs Committee Roundtable on Regulation of Prediction Markets - C-SPAN
Sen Indian Affairs Committee Roundtable on Regulation of Prediction Markets C-SPAN
The Wisdom of Crowds in Markets: Crowd Behavior in Prediction, Betting, and Stock Markets
Mauboussin and Callahan review the wisdom of crowds across prediction markets, sports betting markets, parimutuel betting markets, and the stock market, covering each market's history, accuracy, information aggregation mechanism, and failure modes. The key distinction: the three betting markets are zero-sum before costs, while the stock…
Polymarket becomes official prediction markets partner of ATP Tour
Polymarket becomes official prediction markets partner of ATP Tour Axios
Tribal gaming regulators, senators make a renewed push to add prediction markets provision to Clarity Act
Senators and tribal gaming regulators are pushing to keep sports betting under state jurisdiction, resisting efforts by a federal regulator.
Utah Can Apply Anti-Gambling Laws Against Kalshi, Judge Rules
Utah Can Apply Anti-Gambling Laws Against Kalshi, Judge Rules Bloomberg Law News
What are prediction markets?
What are prediction markets? The Maine Monitor
US Senators Target Wildfire Bets in New CFTC Rule Fight
Nine U.S. senators are asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit contracts tied to wildfire duration, growth and destruction, warning that state and local fire officials see a risk of arson.
Novig Launches Nationwide, Bringing the Leading Sports Trading Platform to Fans Across the Country
Novig Launches Nationwide, Bringing the Leading Sports Trading Platform to Fans Across the Country PR Newswire
Polymarket Reportedly in Talks for Funding at $20B-Plus Valuation
Polymarket Reportedly in Talks for Funding at $20B-Plus Valuation DeFi Rate
Court Rejects CFTC Attempt To Block New York's Lawsuit Against Kalshi
Court Rejects CFTC Attempt To Block New York's Lawsuit Against Kalshi Bitcoin World
The Briefing | Prediction markets pose risks beyond lost revenue
The Briefing | Prediction markets pose risks beyond lost revenue Tribal Business News
New York sues Kalshi after exchange loses key ruling in prediction market fight
New York sues Kalshi after exchange loses key ruling in prediction market fight AMBCrypto
Genius Sports stock surges on Polymarket partnership deal By Investing.com
Genius Sports stock surges on Polymarket partnership deal By Investing.com Investing.com Australia
NY sues Kalshi, alleges ‘prediction market’ app is illegal gambling - Press-Republican
NY sues Kalshi, alleges ‘prediction market’ app is illegal gambling Press-Republican
Polymarket Seeks More Than $20 Billion Valuation in Funding Round
Polymarket Seeks More Than $20 Billion Valuation in Funding Round Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg News Now
Bloomberg News Now -u.s. says strait of hormuz deal could come within days -oil drops on besant comments as markets rally -semiconductor stocks surge, palantir jumps 25% -white house hosts ai firms on voluntary safety tests -anthropic signs $10b compute deal with volta infra -polymarket seeks $20b valuation in new funding round -spacex…
A Citadel quant developer joined Kalshi and declared himself very excited
A Citadel quant developer joined Kalshi and declared himself very excited eFinancialCareers
Betting Big: Polymarket Chases $20 Billion Valuation
Betting Big: Polymarket Chases $20 Billion Valuation cheddar.com
Kalshi launches Public Companies Hub as one-stop-shop for tracking corporate metrics
Kalshi launches Public Companies Hub as one-stop-shop for tracking corporate metrics Kalshi
ProphetX and EPICK Fantasy Partner to Bring CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Market to Peer-to-Peer Fantasy Sports
ProphetX and EPICK Fantasy Partner to Bring CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Market to Peer-to-Peer Fantasy Sports PR Newswire
Polymarket In Talks To Raise $1B At $20B Valuation, Bloomberg Reports
Polymarket In Talks To Raise $1B At $20B Valuation, Bloomberg Reports bitcoinworld.co.in
My son has cancer. Kalshi wants you to be able to bet on his medical future | Joshua Pederson
My son has cancer. Kalshi wants you to be able to bet on his medical future | Joshua Pederson The Guardian
NYS Sues Kalshi For Running Illegal Gambling Operation
NYS Sues Kalshi For Running Illegal Gambling Operation wrfalp.com
Kalshi CEO says lawsuits are the price of being a disruptor
Kalshi CEO says lawsuits are the price of being a disruptor Business Insider
Polymarket in fundraising talks at valuation of more than $20bn
Prediction platform looks to raise $1bn as it tries to gain ground on rival Kalshi
Polymarket targets $20 billion valuation as competition heats up in prediction market sector
Polymarket in talks for fundraising round at more than $20 billion valuation
The reports come after the company told CNBC in June that its annualized revenue was well above $1 billion.
Kalshi partners with Comply on trade surveillance
Kalshi partners with Comply on trade surveillance Breakingthenews.net
Polymarket and Genius Sports expand the role of official data, exclusive live sports streaming and integrity services in prediction markets | News
Polymarket and Genius Sports expand the role of official data, exclusive live sports streaming and integrity services in prediction markets | News Genius Sports
Kalshi strikes partnership with compliance tech firm to help companies police insider trading
The company will announce a partnership with Comply, a compliance technology company, on Tuesday, Kalshi told CNBC.
New York sues Kalshi in latest legal battle over prediction market
New York sues Kalshi in latest legal battle over prediction market ICLG
Sportradar Q2: Prediction Markets to Deliver ‘Tens of Millions’ in Revenue This Year
The sports technology company said delayed prediction market agreements contributed to its lowered 2026 outlook, but expects the emerging sector to become a major growth driver. Sportradar devoted much of its second-quarter earnings call to prediction markets, with executives saying they expect the emerging sector to generate “tens of…
George Santos to pay $35K after CFTC finds Kalshi market manipulation
George Santos to pay $35K after CFTC finds Kalshi market manipulation Crypto News
Would New York State Really Make $10B From Prediction Markets? Probably Not.
Prediction markets news roundup: Polymarket signs exclusive deal with ATP; Senators ask for ban on wildfire bets; ParlayX launches institutional infrastructure play.

Prediction markets offer insight into Kansas primary races in absence of traditional polls
Prediction markets offer insight into Kansas primary races in absence of traditional polls Kansas Reflector
Attorney talks implications of New York state suing Kalshi
Attorney talks implications of New York state suing Kalshi Spectrum News NY1
Prediction market users wager millions on Maine elections
Prediction market users wager millions on Maine elections newscentermaine.com
George Santos Settles CFTC Case Over Trading His Own Kalshi Market
Former U.S. Rep.
Kalshi CEO invokes Nasdaq in $36B New York lawsuit
Kalshi CEO invokes Nasdaq in $36B New York lawsuit Crypto News
Casino Lobby Fueled NY Lawsuit Against Kalshi, CEO Mansour Claims
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, stressed that the legal actions the state of New York has taken against his platform are being pushed by the gambling industry lobby. Mansour stressed that if New York takes Kalshi down, “they’re gonna have a lot of pissed off New Yorkers.” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour Claims Gambling Lobby Is […]
Kalshi says it's introducing new security measures to combat insider trading - ABC News
Kalshi says it's introducing new security measures to combat insider trading ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Australians warned prediction markets could cost them, with little protection - ABC News & Headlines
Australians warned prediction markets could cost them, with little protection ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation
State Of New York Sues Kalshi, Frames Company As "Illegal" - Hip-Hop Wired
State Of New York Sues Kalshi, Frames Company As "Illegal" Hip-Hop Wired
Centuries-Old Law Used In DraftKings, Polymarket Lawsuit
Centuries-Old Law Used In DraftKings, Polymarket Lawsuit GamblingHarm.org
Former Manhattan prosecutor weighs in on New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
Former Manhattan prosecutor weighs in on New York's lawsuit against Kalshi Spectrum News NY1
Kalshi Expands 15-Minute Markets Beyond Crypto With Gold and Silver
Kalshi Expands 15-Minute Markets Beyond Crypto With Gold and Silver Barron's
Kalshi traders are not expecting a U.S. and Iran nuclear deal soon
Kalshi traders are not expecting a U.S. and Iran nuclear deal soon CNBC
New York Sues Kalshi Over Sports Event Contracts
New York Sues Kalshi Over Sports Event Contracts communitynews.org
New York Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Unlicensed Gambling
New York Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Unlicensed Gambling Law Commentary
Prediction Markets Explode in July as World Cup Fueled $54B in Trades
The 2026 FIFA World Cup pushed prediction markets into one of the fastest-growing corners of finance, driving record trading volume, fees, transactions, and open interest as millions of traders flocked to platforms to wager on match outcomes and tournament milestones. Prediction markets allow people to buy and sell contracts tied to the…
New York files lawsuit against Kalshi, seeks $36 billion as penalty
New York files lawsuit against Kalshi, seeks $36 billion as penalty The American Bazaar
Prediction market Kalshi suspends 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own races
Prediction market Kalshi suspends 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own races abcnews.com
Latest Vita Via Trade Market Movement on Kalshi After Requesting Move from Bucs
Kalshi's latest shift remains bullish on the Las Vegas Raiders trading for Vita Vea.
Kalshi CEO invokes Nasdaq, Uber and Airbnb in defense against New York lawsuit
"You could copy and paste that lawsuit and file it against Nasdaq,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said during an interview with CNBC.
Kalshi CEO clashes with disgraced former Congressman George Santos in latest prediction market controversy
Santos was ordered to pay $35,000 after the CFTC found he had manipulated Kalshi contracts tied to his State of the Union attendance.
Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Scrutinized by Senators (1)
Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Scrutinized by Senators (1) Bloomberg Law News
Aaron Donald's Kalshi Market to Play This Year is Trending Up
Kalshi is leaning on Aaron Donald returning to action at some point this season.
New York sues Kalshi, calling its prediction markets illegal gambling
New York sues Kalshi, calling its prediction markets illegal gambling ConsumerAffairs
Kalshi’s Penny Parlay is the Worst Bet in America — and the Smallest Bettors are Buying it
If you are a fan of Kalshi penny parlays, you are likely throwing away money at a phenomenal rate, according to research by Gambling Insider. The longer the odds and the smaller the bet, the larger the relative loss.
Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Draw Scrutiny From Senators
Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Draw Scrutiny From Senators Bloomberg.com
CFTC Fines George Santos $35K for Manipulating State of the Union Prediction Market
The regulator said the former congressman made misleading public statements about attending President Trump’s speech while trading contracts tied to the outcome. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has fined former U.S.
Blakeman slams Hochul over NY suit to block prediction market Kalshi: 'Left billions on the table'
Blakeman slams Hochul over NY suit to block prediction market Kalshi: 'Left billions on the table' New York Post
Senators Urge CFTC to Curb Wildfire Prediction Market Bets Over Arson Concerns
A group of Democratic senators urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to rein in prediction market trading on wildfires, expressing concern that individuals could be tempted to commit arson to make their bets pay off.
Busha Expands Its Innovation Portfolio with Launch Of Licensed Prediction Market Signal By Busha
Busha Expands Its Innovation Portfolio with Launch Of Licensed Prediction Market Signal By Busha Channels Television
Prediction Market Hearings, Earnings and Football Lead the Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
The first full week of August brings key courtroom hearings, major gambling earnings reports and the unofficial start of football betting season. Prediction market litigation remains in the spotlight with hearings scheduled in Rhode Island and Iowa, while several major gambling companies, including DraftKings and Flutter, are set to…
Craig Holman on Insider Trading in Congress and the Prediction Markets
Craig Holman on Insider Trading in Congress and the Prediction Markets Corporate Crime Reporter
Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined volume reaches all-time high in July, surpassing $50 billion
Notably, Polymarket US's volume rose 54% while the main Polymarket platform's volume fell 26% compared to June.
What effects could insider trading have on prediction markets? | Newswise
What effects could insider trading have on prediction markets? | Newswise Newswise

Busha expands its innovation portfolio with the launch of licensed prediction market, Signal by Busha
Busha expands its innovation portfolio with the launch of licensed prediction market, Signal by Busha Business Insider Africa
Complex Core, Simple Surface: Dynamic O/Us, Ranges, and Duels on One Market
A thread by Igor (@justigor) arguing that the primitive can be complex while the trading surface stays simple: complexity belongs in the mechanism, and the thing the trader actually touches should let them express a view for a price they like. Walks through a World Cup campaign built on fantasy points as the underlying, where one market…
Senators press CFTC on tribal consultation, gaming authority in prediction markets debate
Senators press CFTC on tribal consultation, gaming authority in prediction markets debate Tribal Business News
New York files $36 billion lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging it's running an "illegal gambling operation"
New York files $36 billion lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging it's running an "illegal gambling operation" nbcsports.com
CPI | New York Lawsuit Tests Prediction Market Regulation
CPI | New York Lawsuit Tests Prediction Market Regulation pymnts.com
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling Democrat and Chronicle
Could Kalshi become a new tool for political analysts?
Could Kalshi become a new tool for political analysts? The Jerusalem Post
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation wicz.com
New York Sues Kalshi Seeking $36 Billion as States Challenge Prediction Markets as Illegal Gambling
New York Sues Kalshi Seeking $36 Billion as States Challenge Prediction Markets as Illegal Gambling saobserver.com
George Santos to pay fine after allegations of insider trading on Kalshi
George Santos to pay fine after allegations of insider trading on Kalshi local10.com
Kalshi to allow bets on JFK flight cancellations, report says
Kalshi to allow bets on JFK flight cancellations, report says Fox News
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling targeting teens
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling targeting teens WBNG
Kalshi's 2026 college football preview
Kalshi's 2026 college football preview Kalshi News
Sixth Circuit judge to Kalshi: What’s so bad about being regulated by states?
Sixth Circuit judge to Kalshi: What’s so bad about being regulated by states? CDC Gaming
NY looks to shut down Kalshi, have it pay $36 billion in new lawsuit
NY looks to shut down Kalshi, have it pay $36 billion in new lawsuit Gothamist
New York Sues Kalshi, Estimating It Could Owe $36B
New York Sues Kalshi, Estimating It Could Owe $36B Newser
New York Sues to Prevent Kalshi From Operating in the State
New York Sues to Prevent Kalshi From Operating in the State PCMag UK
George Santos agrees to $35,000 settlement in federal probe over Kalshi trades
George Santos agrees to $35,000 settlement in federal probe over Kalshi trades NBC News
New York sues betting app Kalshi, claims illegal gambling scheme
New York sues betting app Kalshi, claims illegal gambling scheme wng.org
New York sues Kalshi, claiming prediction contracts violate state gambling laws
New York sues Kalshi, claiming prediction contracts violate state gambling laws Courthouse News
New York sues Kalshi, claiming it's 'unlicensed gambling'
New York sues Kalshi, claiming it's 'unlicensed gambling' Mashable
Tribal nations in Minnesota push back on federal proposal for prediction markets
Tribal nations in Minnesota push back on federal proposal for prediction markets MPR News
Federal government sues Minnesota over prediction market ban - ABC News
Federal government sues Minnesota over prediction market ban ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
George Santos Pays $35,000 to Settle CFTC Probe Over Kalshi Wager
George Santos Pays $35,000 to Settle CFTC Probe Over Kalshi Wager FishDuck
New York state sues Kalshi, saying it runs an ‘illegal gambling operation’
New York state sues Kalshi, saying it runs an ‘illegal gambling operation’ WXXI News
New York sues Kalshi, alleges prediction market is illegal gambling - ABC News
New York sues Kalshi, alleges prediction market is illegal gambling ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
George Santos to Pay $35,000 Over ‘Manipulative’ Kalshi Bet (1)
George Santos to Pay $35,000 Over ‘Manipulative’ Kalshi Bet (1) Bloomberg Law News
New York sues prediction market Kalshi alleging it’s an illegal gambling operation
New York sues prediction market Kalshi alleging it’s an illegal gambling operation CNN
George Santos Settles Regulator’s Claim Over ‘Manipulative Activity’ on Kalshi
George Santos Settles Regulator’s Claim Over ‘Manipulative Activity’ on Kalshi WSJ
NYS sues Kalshi, accusing it of running illegal, unlicensed gambling operation
NYS sues Kalshi, accusing it of running illegal, unlicensed gambling operation Newsday
New York Sues Kalshi in Latest Bid to Regulate Prediction Markets
New York Sues Kalshi in Latest Bid to Regulate Prediction Markets The New York Times
Video New lawsuit against popular prediction market Kalshi - ABC News
Video New lawsuit against popular prediction market Kalshi ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Prediction Market History: From Palace Bets to Blockchain
Prediction Market History: From Palace Bets to Blockchain Coin Gabbar

George Santos Fined Over Bets on State of the Union on Prediction Market
George Santos Fined Over Bets on State of the Union on Prediction Market The New York Times
Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts
Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts Ballotpedia News
New York sues Kalshi, alleging the prediction market enables illegal gambling
New York sues Kalshi, alleging the prediction market enables illegal gambling CBS News
George Santos Settles Kalshi Insider Trading Case With the CFTC - News of the United States
George Santos Settles Kalshi Insider Trading Case With the CFTC News of the United States - NOTUS
An Ethical Hole In New York’s $36 Billion Kalshi Lawsuit
An Ethical Hole In New York’s $36 Billion Kalshi Lawsuit GamblingHarm.org
Ann Jacobs on prediction markets and Wisconsin election law
Ann Jacobs on prediction markets and Wisconsin election law PBS Wisconsin
New York sues Kalshi for alleged 'illegal gambling operation'
New York sues Kalshi for alleged 'illegal gambling operation' ESPN
Executable Arbitrage and Market Efficiency in Prediction Markets
Distinguishes payoff-space no-arbitrage, which follows from terminal payoffs, from protocol-executable no-arbitrage, which depends on what position transformations traders can actually perform. Using Polymarket's negative-risk markets and the NegRisk Adapter, the authors reconstruct depth-aware portfolio values and transaction histories…

Why it Matters: States fighting prediction markets over sports betting laws
Why it Matters: States fighting prediction markets over sports betting laws WTVG
UFC Fight Night Kalshi Prediction Market for Medić vs. Rodriguez
Kalshi is leaning on Uros Medić at UFC Fight Night over Daniel Rodriguez.
Breaking down New York's lawsuit against prediction market Kalshi
Breaking down New York's lawsuit against prediction market Kalshi Spectrum News NY1
George Santos settles with CFTC over Kalshi bets
Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has agreed to pay $35,000 to settle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over wagers he placed on the State of the Union earlier this year on Kalshi, the agency announced Friday.
New York sues Kalshi prediction market alleging ‘illegal gambling operation’
New York sues Kalshi prediction market alleging ‘illegal gambling operation’ The Guardian
Sports betting company Underdog confirms Adam Schefter was early investor amid potential $2.15B sale
Adam Schefter appears to have cashed out from the billion-dollar sale of a popular sports betting company. The ESPN NFL insider was an “early-stage investor” in Underdog, which began as a daily fantasy brand, later added a content network, and has since morphed into a sports-focused prediction market.
Senate Indian Affairs Committee to Examine Prediction Markets and Tribal Implications
Senate Indian Affairs Committee to Examine Prediction Markets and Tribal Implications Holland & Knight
Where to Trade on the UFC This Weekend, Polymarket, Kalshi
Where to Trade on the UFC This Weekend, Polymarket, Kalshi FOX Sports
George Santos fined and banned over prediction market trades
George Santos fined and banned over prediction market trades Axios
Former Rep. George Santos agrees to pay $35,000 in CFTC settlement over Kalshi SOTU bet
Former expelled U.S. Rep.
New York sues Kalshi, says prediction market is running 'illegal gambling operation'
It comes after a federal judge earlier this month denied Kalshi's attempts to intervene against the state's Gaming Commission.
George Santos Must Pay $35,000 Over ‘Manipulative’ Kalshi Trade
Former Congressman George Santos agreed to pay more than $35,000 to settle allegations he manipulated a wager on prediction market platform Kalshi about whether he’d attend the 2026 State of the Union.
New York Sues Kalshi in State Court, Seeks to Shut Down Alleged Illegal Gambling Operation
The state wants to stop the prediction market platform from operating within its borders, recover allegedly illegal gains and obtain restitution for consumers. New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed suit against Kalshi, claiming the prediction market operator is running an illegal, unlicensed gambling business in the state.
Ruling lets Wisconsin pursue action against Kalshi, CDNA and similar event-contract sites
Ruling lets Wisconsin pursue action against Kalshi, CDNA and similar event-contract sites WLUK
Attorney General Takes Aim at Kalshi Prediction Market
Attorney General Takes Aim at Kalshi Prediction Market The City Reporter
New York sues to shut down Kalshi, seeks $100,000 for each unauthorized bet
The state claims Kalshi is an unlicensed sportsbook, while the prediction market says New York has no authority since it is regulated by a federal agency.
The Tax Reasons For New York To Treat Kalshi Like A Sportsbook
The Tax Reasons For New York To Treat Kalshi Like A Sportsbook forbes.com
NY sues prediction market company Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling
NY sues prediction market company Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling Lohud
Novig partners with New York Mets as MLB’s first prediction market sponsor
Novig partners with New York Mets as MLB’s first prediction market sponsor Bitget
World Cup 2026 prediction markets topped $20 billion, with Ronaldo tears among the biggest wagers
World Cup betting activity peaked around major knockout matches, with markets ranging from match outcomes to player-specific outcomes.
Polymarket is Funding Academics to Study Prediction Markets
Polymarket is Funding Academics to Study Prediction Markets FinanceFeeds
New York Sues Kalshi After Talks to Rein In Prediction Market Break Down
New York Sues Kalshi After Talks to Rein In Prediction Market Break Down WSJ
Mets, Novig Ink 1st Prediction Market Deal for an MLB Team
Mets, Novig Ink 1st Prediction Market Deal for an MLB Team Yahoo Sports
New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation'
New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation' Greenwich Time
NY Sues Kalshi for Running an ‘Illegal Gambling’ Operation
New York state authorities sued the predictions-market company Kalshi Inc. for allegedly running an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation in the state, marking another legal hurdle for an industry that has won support from the Trump administration.
New York Mets, Novig Announce First Prediction Market Deal for an MLB Franchise
New York Mets, Novig Announce First Prediction Market Deal for an MLB Franchise Casino.org
Kawhi Leonard Next Team Trade Market Trending Back Toward Clippers
The Toronto Raptors are fading on Kalshi's Kawhi Leonard next team market. The Los Angeles Clippers begin to rise.
Maxx Crosby Next Team Trade Market on Kalshi Includes Cowboys
Kalshi is starting to lean on the Dallas Cowboys on Maxx Crosby's next team market.
NY Sues Kalshi, Demanding $100K Fine Per Illegal Bet
The lawsuit alleges that Kalshi acted as an unlicensed gambling operator, stressing that prediction markets meet the legal definition of gambling as the outcomes of event contracts “are uncertain and outside the control of the bettor or hinge on a game of chance.” New York Alleges Kalshi Violated State Laws Operating an Unlicensed…
Could Prediction Markets Replace Election Polling?
Could Prediction Markets Replace Election Polling? Tufts Now
Kalshi New York Lawsuit Targets Unlicensed Gambling Claims
Kalshi New York Lawsuit Targets Unlicensed Gambling Claims The Cryptonomist
Sex rumors and personal insults: Inside the vicious battle between Polymarket and Kalshi
Sex rumors and personal insults: Inside the vicious battle between Polymarket and Kalshi New York Post
MLB, NHL sign prediction market deals amid legal fight
MLB, NHL sign prediction market deals amid legal fight Sporting Goods Intelligence Europe
Prediction Markets Lawsuit
Prediction Markets Lawsuit WV News
World Cup bets smash records as prediction markets hit $20 billion in volume
Can I make Parlays on Kalshi? Kalshi Combo Trading
Can I make Parlays on Kalshi? Kalshi Combo Trading Goal.com
Governor Hochul and Attorney General James Announce New York Has Sued Kalshi for Running Illegal Gambling Operation
Governor Hochul and Attorney General James Announce New York Has Sued Kalshi for Running Illegal Gambling Operation Yonkers Times
Bernstein sees 78% upside for Robinhood as tokenization, prediction markets expand its crypto business
Bernstein held its $160 Robinhood price target, citing tokenization and prediction markets as Robinhood's next crypto growth drivers.
New York sues Kalshi, alleges it offers a gambling platform 'plain and simple'
Opinion: Prediction markets offer a glimpse into the future – and protection from it
Opinion: Prediction markets offer a glimpse into the future – and protection from it The Globe and Mail
2026 FIFA World Cup Generated $20B on Prediction Markets Like Polymarket and Kalshi
2026 FIFA World Cup Generated $20B on Prediction Markets Like Polymarket and Kalshi Bitcoin Foundation
Prediction Market Ads are Out of Control
Regulation would help curb some of their biggest problems

Online prediction markets rile up state lawmakers
Online prediction markets rile up state lawmakers Stateline
New York sues Kalshi over illegal gambling claims, seeks $36 billion in damages
New York State is seeking at least $36 billion in compensatory damages from Kalshi, pending a full accounting.
New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling
New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling Reuters
Mets Become 1st MLB Team To Partner With Prediction Market
Mets Become 1st MLB Team To Partner With Prediction Market Law360
Chris Christie: North Carolina got hoodwinked on prediction markets | Opinion
Chris Christie: North Carolina got hoodwinked on prediction markets | Opinion Raleigh News & Observer
Senate To Examine Prediction Market Threats To Tribal Sovereignty
Senate To Examine Prediction Market Threats To Tribal Sovereignty Legis1
Mets Partner With Novig in First MLB Prediction Market Deal
Mets Partner With Novig in First MLB Prediction Market Deal PYMNTS.com
New ruling in Kalshi case signals that AG's lawsuit is imminent
New ruling in Kalshi case signals that AG's lawsuit is imminent Times Union
Kalshi Sports Offerings Appear On Shaky Ground At 6th Circ.
Kalshi Sports Offerings Appear On Shaky Ground At 6th Circ. Law360
Polymarket, DraftKings accused of violating South Carolina ban on sports betting
Polymarket, DraftKings accused of violating South Carolina ban on sports betting Courthouse News
States vs. federal government in prediction market battle : Here & Now Anytime
States vs. federal government in prediction market battle : Here & Now Anytime NPR
Bloomberg News Hires Ben Weiss to Cover Cryptocurrencies and Prediction Markets
Bloomberg News Hires Ben Weiss to Cover Cryptocurrencies and Prediction Markets citybiz
Prediction market money lining up against Flanagan
Prediction market money lining up against Flanagan ictnews.org
New York Mets tap Novig as prediction market partner as MLB embraces new betting sector
The deal will allow Novig to integrate across the Mets’ ecosystem and run league‑approved markets.
SC man sues DraftKings, Polymarket for allegedly flouting state ban on sports betting
SC man sues DraftKings, Polymarket for allegedly flouting state ban on sports betting Post and Courier
Coinbase shares slip after Q2 results despite prediction markets doubling and record trading market share
Coinbase said 88% of its net revenue now comes from sources other than bitcoin spot trading, as its share of global crypto volume grows.
Robinhood CEO Sees Prediction Markets as Fastest Growing Business
Robinhood Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev says the prediction markets business is the fastest growing in the firm’s history. Speaking on "Bloomberg The Close," Tenev also discusses the company's initiatives, Trump Accounts and the future of crypto.
Fact Check Team: Is Kalshi really gambling? States Challenge Prediction Market
Fact Check Team: Is Kalshi really gambling? States Challenge Prediction Market National Desk
Binance.US to File for Prediction Market License
Binance.US to File for Prediction Market License Bitcoin Foundation
Preparing for Prediction Markets Regulations Is a Safe Bet
Preparing for Prediction Markets Regulations Is a Safe Bet FTI Consulting
Mets announce first-ever prediction market partnership with Novig in surprise
Mets announce first-ever prediction market partnership with Novig in surprise New York Post
Kalshi, States Try to Sway Sixth Circuit on Sports Betting Rules
Kalshi, States Try to Sway Sixth Circuit on Sports Betting Rules Bloomberg Law News
Novig Named Exclusive Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Mets
Novig Named Exclusive Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Mets PR Newswire
DOGE Veterans Are Landing Big Jobs at Prediction Markets
DOGE Veterans Are Landing Big Jobs at Prediction Markets WIRED
Mets sign Novig as first MLB club with prediction market sponsor
Mets sign Novig as first MLB club with prediction market sponsor Sports Business Journal
Meet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: Novig
Meet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: Novig Front Office Sports
New York Mets Become First MLB Team to Partner With a Prediction Market
New York Mets Become First MLB Team to Partner With a Prediction Market WSJ
Robinhood Pulls in $1.31B Q2 Revenue as 44% Trading Surge Fuels Record Profit
Robinhood reported record Q2 2026 net revenue of $1.31 billion and a 48% surge in net income to $573 million. Growth was fueled by strong performance in options trading, equity trading and a tenfold expansion in event contracts.
Walz bars insider bets by state employees on prediction markets
Walz bars insider bets by state employees on prediction markets St. Cloud Times
Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 US Prediction Market Exchange as Users Near 2 Million
Prediction markets are becoming a significant business for the brokerage, with users growing by roughly one-third since the first quarter. Robinhood’s prediction market business continues to grow rapidly, with nearly 2 million customers trading event contracts in the second quarter.
Bill Belichick Among Coaches Most Likely to Be "Out" Before September
Bill Belichick is surging up Kalshi's board of college football coaches to be out before September.
Will Ronaldo Cry? World Cup Fans Bet Billions Through Prediction Markets
Will Ronaldo Cry? World Cup Fans Bet Billions Through Prediction Markets Bellingcat
Federal Judge Denies CFTC Bid to Block Wisconsin Prediction Market Enforcement
The court ruled that sports-event contracts are unlikely to constitute swaps and rejected CFTC’s federal preemption arguments. A federal judge in Wisconsin has denied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) request to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operators.
Are Prediction Markets Just Sports Betting? Congress Debates Regulatory Reform
Are Prediction Markets Just Sports Betting? Congress Debates Regulatory Reform The Fulcrum
Three Things We Learned About Robinhood And Prediction Markets During Q2 Earnings
Prediction markets news roundup July 30: Kalshi, CFTC suffer setback in cases in New York, Wisconsin; Senate committee to hold roundtable.

Appeals Court Judge Denies Kalshi an Injunction as New York Deadline Looms
New York officials could take action on or after Thursday A federal appeals court judge on Wednesday evening denied Kalshi’s motion for an injunction that would prevent New York state officials from taking action against the prediction market as it sues the state over an order to stop offering derivative contracts on sporting events to…
Prediction Markets Are Winning the War Against Them
Prediction Markets Are Winning the War Against Them The New Republic
Binance.US to apply for CFTC license in August for prediction market platform
Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory said at a recent conference that the company will apply for a designated contract market license in August.
Bloomberg investigates manipulation risks in prediction markets as $200M in suspicious trades surface
Bloomberg investigates manipulation risks in prediction markets as $200M in suspicious trades surface Crypto Briefing
Sports Leagues And Player Unions Press CFTC For Prediction Market Safeguards
Sports Leagues And Player Unions Press CFTC For Prediction Market Safeguards DeFi Rate
Robinhood CFO details surging prediction market business as firm posts record revenue in Q2
Robinhood beat analyst expectations on several fronts though crypto revenue fell significantly.
Binance.US Plans CFTC License Filing Next Month to Launch Prediction Market
Binance.US Plans CFTC License Filing Next Month to Launch Prediction Market bloomingbit
Prediction Markets Are Hot. But Can They Avoid Becoming Casinos?
CFTC Loses Bid to Halt Wisconsin Prediction Market Crackdown
CFTC Loses Bid to Halt Wisconsin Prediction Market Crackdown Bloomberg Law News
Robinhood’s prediction markets top crypto and equities revenue in Q2
The trading platform generated $156 million from event contracts, compared with $100 million from cryptocurrency trading.
Can We Trust Election Prediction Markets?
Leading prediction markets have been heralded as “truth machines” — arenas for mass betting that reveal what people really think when they’ve got money on the line. But a new Bloomberg investigation has found evidence that these markets are vulnerable to manipulation.
Binance.US Wants to Join Prediction Markets Race With CFTC Stamp
Binance.US is planning to apply for a license with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that would help it start its own prediction market, the company’s chief executive officer said at a conference on Wednesday.
Drug Trial Prediction Markets Raise Fears Over Research Integrity
Drug Trial Prediction Markets Raise Fears Over Research Integrity Casino.org
A $600,000 Kalshi Trade Is Poised for a Big Payoff If Fed Hikes
A $600,000 Kalshi Trade Is Poised for a Big Payoff If Fed Hikes Bloomberg.com
EDGE Markets Raises $29.2 Million as Prediction Market Infrastructure Becomes the Real Fundraising Story
EDGE Markets Raises $29.2 Million as Prediction Market Infrastructure Becomes the Real Fundraising Story finchannel
Polymarket launches research institute to study the future of prediction markets: Report
Polymarket launches research institute to study the future of prediction markets: Report Crypto Briefing
Indiana Fever Rising in WNBA Champion Prediction Market on Kalshi
Kalshi's WNBA Championship price on the Indiana Fever are rising with their recent play in July.
Trump Teleprompter Operator Leaves White House Amid Kalshi Insider Trading Investigation
The White House employee allegedly used insider knowledge of President Donald Trump’s speeches to profit over $100,000 on Kalshi. Gabriel Perez, the White House teleprompter operator who allegedly used inside information of President Donald Trump’s speeches to profit on Kalshi, no longer works for the federal government, according to the…
NFL Pushes Tougher Prediction Market Rules
NFL Pushes Tougher Prediction Market Rules Casino.org
Bloomberg hires Weiss to cover crypto and prediction markets
Bloomberg hires Weiss to cover crypto and prediction markets Talking Biz News
Polymarket Launches Institute to Advance the Science of Prediction Markets
Polymarket Launches Institute to Advance the Science of Prediction Markets PR Newswire
Exclusive: Polymarket launches institute to fund independent academic research on prediction markets
Exclusive: Polymarket launches institute to fund independent academic research on prediction markets Fortune
BetMGM Q2 2026 Earnings: Prediction Markets and Customer Win Rates Weigh on Results
BetMGM’s inability to compete against the prediction markets threat is impacting top-line growth, as net revenue grew by just 3% in Q2 2026 BetMGM, the 50/50 joint venture between MGM Resorts International and Entain, released its second-quarter 2026 business update on July 28, delivering revenue and earnings that came in below consensus…
Prediction market fires back after Wisconsin Elections Commission issues ballot betting guidance
Prediction market fires back after Wisconsin Elections Commission issues ballot betting guidance Spectrum News
Prediction Markets Don't Need Villains
A Brief Review of Netflix’s Prediction Markets Documentary

Parlay Bets Are Burning Gamblers as Market Booms on Kalshi (1)
Parlay Bets Are Burning Gamblers as Market Booms on Kalshi (1) Bloomberg Law News
Fanatics’ head of RG likens Kalshi, Polymarket to black market operators
Fanatics’ head of RG likens Kalshi, Polymarket to black market operators NEXT.io
CFTC Fights Setbacks in Quest to Lock Down Prediction Markets
CFTC Fights Setbacks in Quest to Lock Down Prediction Markets Bloomberg Law News
Prediction Markets for Fed Decision in July
Prediction Markets for Fed Decision in July Federal News Network
‘Trade $25, Get Up to $500’: Your Kalshi Bonus Is Left To Chance!
Prediction markets news roundup July 29: ProphetX raises $35M; there were about 1,400 comments to the CFTC on proposed rules; Underdog poised to launch parlays on its own exchange.

Coalition of 44 state attorneys general says CFTC lacks authority over sports prediction markets
The group of AGs sent a letter to the CFTC, urging the agency to draft new rules consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act.
Algomarket Earns a 46 Proof of Usefulness Score by Building a Cross-Venue Prediction Market Analytics Platform
Algomarket Earns a 46 Proof of Usefulness Score by Building a Cross-Venue Prediction Market Analytics Platform HackerNoon
Judge blocks new Minnesota prediction market ban from going into effect on August 1st - KTTC
Judge blocks new Minnesota prediction market ban from going into effect on August 1st KTTC | Rochester, MN
Prediction Markets Raise New Questions for States and Tribes - National Conference of State Legislatures
Prediction Markets Raise New Questions for States and Tribes National Conference of State Legislatures
Congress Must Stop the Prediction Market Gambling Loophole
Congress Must Stop the Prediction Market Gambling Loophole The Well News
NC voters support sports betting but don’t like prediction markets, new poll finds
NC voters support sports betting but don’t like prediction markets, new poll finds NC Newsline
FIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation
As prediction market giants like Kalshi and Polymarket begin offering perpetual futures trading with CFTC approval, other investment platforms are looking to expand their offerings. CME Group is launching single-stock futures, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on more than 50 of the largest US companies.
Ravens Trending Up, Chiefs Down in Kalshi Super Bowl Prediction Market
The Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl price jumped the Kansas City Chiefs on Kalshi.
Nevada Gaming Control Board shuts down Kalshi’s sports prediction
Nevada Gaming Control Board shuts down Kalshi’s sports prediction KSNV
Kalshi agrees to stop operating in Nevada - KOLO
Kalshi agrees to stop operating in Nevada KOLO | 8 News Now
Federal Judge Denies Kalshi’s Emergency Injunction Request in New York
Federal Judge Denies Kalshi’s Emergency Injunction Request in New York Yahoo Finance
Quants are earning $1m+ on Kalshi. Trading firms have to pay double or nothing to hire them.
Kalshi is expanding online betting in drug R&D — unless detractors can stop it
Kalshi is expanding online betting in drug R&D — unless detractors can stop it Pharma Voice
ProphetX Raises $35M to Scale America's First Federally Regulated Sports-Native Prediction Market and B2B Platform
ProphetX Raises $35M to Scale America's First Federally Regulated Sports-Native Prediction Market and B2B Platform PR Newswire
Exclusive: Prediction markets get their own media company
Exclusive: Prediction markets get their own media company Axios
Trump's teleprompter operator who bet on speeches no longer working in the government
President Trump’s former teleprompter operator, who bet on his speeches, is no longer working in the federal government. A White House official confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday that Gabriel Perez was no longer employed in the government.
Jarren Duran Trade Prediction Market Moves Up on Kalshi
Kalshi suggests that Jarren Duran could be the next Boston Red Sox player traded with his price inching up.
Sport Leagues, States Urge CFTC to Modify Prediction Market Rule
Sport Leagues, States Urge CFTC to Modify Prediction Market Rule Bloomberg Law News
Kalshi Pays Social Account That Makes Anti-Black, Anti-Muslim Posts
An anonymous X account that frequently posts anti-Black and anti-Muslim messages collects checks from Kalshi, the prediction market operator valued at more than $20 billion. The user, who goes by Wall Street Mav and has 1.7 million followers, wrote Saturday that former ESPN analyst Ryan Clark, who is Black, acts like a “chimp.” A day […]
Walz bans state workers from betting with private government info on prediction markets
Walz bans state workers from betting with private government info on prediction markets MPR News
Federal judge halts Minnesota's prediction market ban, signaling other states' efforts might be illegal too
Federal judge halts Minnesota's prediction market ban, signaling other states' efforts might be illegal too Reason Magazine
Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court
Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court MinnPost
Prediction market wagering on drug approvals draws fire from researchers
Prediction market wagering on drug approvals draws fire from researchers Baton Rouge Business Report
Minnesota Judge Blocks Prediction-Market Ban but Says Some Contracts Aren’t Swaps
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez blocked Minnesota from enforcing the first state felony ban on prediction markets days before its Aug.
44 states are aligned on one thing in their fight against prediction markets. It's about sports wagering
The letter is part of the commission’s public comment period for the first draft of its proposed rule on regulating prediction markets.
Federal court blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets for now - ABC News
Federal court blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets for now ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Parlay Bets Are Burning Gamblers as Market Takes Off on Kalshi
Parlay Bets Are Burning Gamblers as Market Takes Off on Kalshi Bloomberg Law News
Meta likely to highlight smart glasses, avoid social media policy on upcoming earnings call, Kalshi traders say
The Facebook and Instagram owner is set to report earnings after the market close on Wednesday.
Prediction Market Betting on Drug Trials and Approvals Sparks Concern About Undermining Research
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now let people wager money on drug approvals. Kalshi also plans to allow bets on clinical trial results.
Minnesota’s Prediction Market Ban Temporarily Blocked by Judge
Minnesota’s Prediction Market Ban Temporarily Blocked by Judge Bloomberg Law News
Prediction Markets Say Hold, Citadel Securities Says Fed Will Hike as Trump Pressures Central Bank
Federal funds futures traders are pricing a majority chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady this week, but trading activity beneath the headline tells a more nuanced story.
Parlay Bets Saddle Gamblers With $294 Million Losses on Kalshi
Retail bettors are piling into long-shot multi-leg bets on prediction-market platforms, opening up a lucrative opportunity for sophisticated traders taking the other side.
Hyperliquid and Multicoin Push CFTC Toward One Prediction Market Rulebook
Hyperliquid and Multicoin Push CFTC Toward One Prediction Market Rulebook CryptoPotato
Kalshi, Polymarket Score Win as Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction Market Ban—For Now
Kalshi, Polymarket Score Win as Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction Market Ban—For Now Decrypt
Regulators say state removing illegally operating Kalshi market - Las Vegas Review-Journal
Regulators say state removing illegally operating Kalshi market Las Vegas Review-Journal
Dodd-Frank Architect Says CFTC’s Prediction Market Rule Misreads The Law He Helped Write
NFL says proposed CFTC rules ‘fall significantly short.’ Prediction markets news roundup: Kalshi gets win in Minnesota, setback in New York; Fanatics buys an exchange.

Judge blocks Minnesota from enforcing prediction market ban in win for Kalshi, Polymarket
A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on Monday, blocking Minnesota from enforcing its new law banning prediction markets.
Betting on Crisis: Why Prediction Markets Are a Threat to Democratic Trust
Betting on Crisis: Why Prediction Markets Are a Threat to Democratic Trust The Fulcrum
New York Federal Judge Denies Kalshi an Injunction for Second Time This Month
Ruling comes hours after a Minnesota federal judge agreed to block temporarily a state law banning prediction markets A federal judge in Manhattan on Monday denied Kalshi’s request for an emergency injunction in its case against New York state officials, which would have prevented state gaming regulators from taking action against the…
Kalshi tiptoes back into canceled flight markets with new JFK airport wager, bets don’t apply to specific flights
The new contract will let institutional users bet whether 50% of flights will be cancelled at JFK airport over two days in October.
Judge halts Minnesota ban on prediction markets
Judge halts Minnesota ban on prediction markets Minnesota Reformer
Minnesota Judge Blocks First State Ban on Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket
Minnesota Judge Blocks First State Ban on Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket The New York Times
How Are Prediction Markets Taxed? IRS Guidance Pending
How Are Prediction Markets Taxed? IRS Guidance Pending PlayUSA
Prediction markets ban to go in effect Aug. 1 - FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Prediction markets ban to go in effect Aug. 1 FOX 9 Minneapolis-St.
Kalshi Was Warned of Spotify Manipulation Before Settling $3.3M Market
A prominent Kalshi trader says he asked the exchange to delay a $3.3 million Spotify-market settlement while its enforcement team examined signs of artificial streaming. Kalshi paid the market minutes after its final response, a day before Spotify stripped 523,000 fraudulent streams from the winning song.
Minnesota prediction market ban paused by federal judge days before rollout
A federal judge on Monday halted a prediction market ban in Minnesota days before it was set to roll out. District Judge Katherine Menendez wrote that the Trump administration, Kalshi and Polymarket are “likely to succeed on the merits” in the case arguing that the state ban is pre-empted by federal law.
Judge blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets
Judge blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets Courthouse News
After House Hearing, CFTC Refreshes Prediction Markets on Self-Certification
Some prediction markets do not follow ‘core principles’ when introducing new contracts, agency advises. Last week’s hearing by a House subcommittee on prediction markets may not lead to legislation coming from the House Agriculture Committee, but it’s already having an impact.
Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike
Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike Decrypt
Polymarket Got Trump Right. But the Data Exposes the Limits of Prediction Markets
Polymarket Got Trump Right. But the Data Exposes the Limits of Prediction Markets European Business Magazine
Kalshi, Polymarket win pause against Minnesota's prediction market ban
Federal judge blocks Minnesota’s prediction market ban days before it takes effect
Federal judge blocks Minnesota’s prediction market ban days before it takes effect NBC News
Judge blocks Minnesota's first-in-nation prediction markets ban
Judge blocks Minnesota's first-in-nation prediction markets ban Reuters
NFL urges CFTC to strengthen rules on sports prediction markets: report
The NFL responded to the CFTC’s recent draft rulemaking calling for stricter prediction markets oversight, including age restrictions.
Trump admin's proposed prediction market rule faces public pushback
Trump admin's proposed prediction market rule faces public pushback Reuters
Federal judge halts Minnesota law meant to bar prediction markets within state
Federal judge halts Minnesota law meant to bar prediction markets within state MPR News
Kalshi commits to geofencing as part of Nevada ban, contempt hearing canceled
Kalshi commits to geofencing as part of Nevada ban, contempt hearing canceled KLAS 8 News Now
Pennsylvania Bill Could Shut Sportsbooks Out of Prediction-Market Making
A bipartisan Pennsylvania bill would impose insider-trading rules and consumer protections on prediction markets while blocking gambling companies from supplying their liquidity. The restriction could disrupt market-making strategies pursued by Draftkings, Flutter and other sportsbook groups expanding into federally regulated event…
Fanatics Buys CFTC-Registered Exchange in Prediction Markets Land Grab
Fanatics Buys CFTC-Registered Exchange in Prediction Markets Land Grab Decrypt
Champion Knicks clear favorites to be LeBron James' first 76ers opponent in 2026-27 NBA season at Kalshi
Champion Knicks clear favorites to be LeBron James' first 76ers opponent in 2026-27 NBA season at Kalshi CBS Sports
Nevada loses 2028 primary bid, Kalshi deadline and LGBTQ+ Center expands
Nevada loses 2028 primary bid, Kalshi deadline and LGBTQ+ Center expands Nevada Public Radio
FIFA Declared World Cup Clean Before Watchdog Logged 7 Integrity Notices
FIFA said its integrity task force found no suspicious betting or evidence of match manipulation across the 2026 World Cup. A monitoring network that sits on that same task force disclosed a day later that it issued seven integrity notices, placed 15 matches under enhanced scrutiny and monitored prediction markets continuously for the…
Thinking about using Kalshi to pay for school? Here are smarter ways to cover college costs
Thinking about using Kalshi to pay for school? Here are smarter ways to cover college costs CNBC
Nathan Goldman Provides Expertise on Prediction Market Taxes for CNBC
Nathan Goldman Provides Expertise on Prediction Market Taxes for CNBC Poole College of Management
Kalshi is threatening to sue Netflix over its prediction markets documentary trailer
Kalshi is threatening to sue Netflix over its prediction markets documentary trailer qz.com
ProphetX partners with Players' Lounge on sports prediction markets
ProphetX partners with Players' Lounge on sports prediction markets SRP (Structured Retail Products)
Prediction Market Arbitrage: 5 Opportunities Live Now on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt (July 27, 2026)
Prediction Market Arbitrage: 5 Opportunities Live Now on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt (July 27, 2026) StartupHub.ai
Robinhood bought a license. Kalshi had built a business
Robinhood bought a license. Kalshi had built a business Crypto News
BLOOMBERG: Sports Apparel Company Fanatics Inks BGC Deal for Prediction Markets Expansion
BLOOMBERG: Sports Apparel Company Fanatics Inks BGC Deal for Prediction Markets Expansion Fanatics Inc
CFTC Advises on Self-Certification of Event Contract Series
CFTC Advises on Self-Certification of Event Contract Series Markets Media
Fanatics buys regulated exchange in bid to grow prediction markets business
Lazio End Partnership With Polymarket After Blacklist Decision
Lazio have apparently terminated their collaboration with Polymarket, which acted as their main shirt sponsor for a brief period.Polymarket Banned in ItalyAfter going sponsorless for almost three year...
As Wildfires Destroy Communities, Online Prediction Markets Turn Disaster Into a Financial Trade
As Wildfires Destroy Communities, Online Prediction Markets Turn Disaster Into a Financial Trade iGamingToday.com
Hyperliquid, Multicoin back CFTC prediction market rules
Hyperliquid, Multicoin back CFTC prediction market rules Crypto News
Robinhood Eyes Crypto.com to Expand Role on Prediction Market Stage
Robinhood Eyes Crypto.com to Expand Role on Prediction Market Stage PYMNTS.com
Prediction Markets Are Booming, Crypto Markets Are Not. Here's What That Means for Crypto Investors
Congress hits a wall on reining in sports betting, prediction markets
Lawmakers appear to have stalled out on a months-long effort to pass legislation imposing new rules on the booming business of sports gambling and prediction markets, despite bipartisan agreement the industries have gone underscrutinized by the federal government for too long. Critics in both chambers say major online sportsbooks like…
Kalshi attacks Wisconsin law banning election bets as 'voter suppression'
Kalshi attacks Wisconsin law banning election bets as 'voter suppression' NPR
Of Netflix, Nevada And Prediction Market Reality
Kalshi agrees to geofence prohibited markets in Nevada before a Netflix documentary premiered. Prediction markets news roundup: Robinhood and Crypto.com are reportedly discussing a deal.

Potential World Cup manipulation on Polymarket flagged by sports advisory group
Potential World Cup manipulation on Polymarket flagged by sports advisory group Mashable
Comparative Analysis of Payout Mechanisms in Trepa: From Median Cutoff to Hybrid Consolation Floor
A research report from Andromeda Computer comparing three payout mechanisms for Trepa, a one-minute forecasting game on Solana where participants submit numerical BTC/USD estimates and are rewarded by proximity to the true outcome: (A) the current median-error cutoff with water-filling, (B) a continuous accuracy-proportional distribution…
Lane Johnson Retirement? Kalshi Says Coming Soon
Kalshi's Lane Johnson retirement market leans on him playing for the next two seasons.
Robinhood, Crypto.com reportedly negotiating prediction market partnership
Robinhood, Crypto.com reportedly negotiating prediction market partnership Northeast Times
Election betting faces fresh legal scrutiny as midterms approach (KALSHI:Private)
Election betting faces fresh legal scrutiny as midterms approach (KALSHI:Private) Seeking Alpha
Kalshi accuses Netflix of faking trades in documentary trailer, sends cease-and-desist
Kalshi accuses Netflix of faking trades in documentary trailer, sends cease-and-desist Yahoo Finance
On prediction markets, people are betting big money on climate disasters
On prediction markets, people are betting big money on climate disasters The Globe and Mail
Wisconsin’s Warning on Election Bets Intensifies Fight With Prediction Markets
Wisconsin’s Warning on Election Bets Intensifies Fight With Prediction Markets WSJ
U.S. regulator warns prediction markets against cutting corners in event contracts
Will prediction market ‘catch fire’ in UK, replicating US boom?
Will prediction market ‘catch fire’ in UK, replicating US boom? The Guardian
Robinhood's talks with Crypto.com signal that prediction markets are eating retail finance
Robinhood's talks with Crypto.com signal that prediction markets are eating retail finance Startup Fortune
What's behind the fight between Kalshi and Netflix
What's behind the fight between Kalshi and Netflix CNN
Kalshi Sends Netflix Cease-and-Desist Letter, Calls 'Prediction Games' Trailer 'Defamatory'
Kalshi Sends Netflix Cease-and-Desist Letter, Calls 'Prediction Games' Trailer 'Defamatory' Benzinga
Judge rules Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws
Judge rules Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws KIRO 7 News Seattle
CME-FanDuel Prediction Market Partnership Faces New Tension
CME-FanDuel Prediction Market Partnership Faces New Tension Iredell Free News
The Gray Area: Prediction Markets and The Fight over SC Sports Betting
The Gray Area: Prediction Markets and The Fight over SC Sports Betting WBTW
Report: Kalshi Accuses Netflix of Defamation Over Trailer for New Prediction Markets Film
Prediction market operator Kalshi sent Netflix a cease and desist letter on July 24, 2026, accusing the streaming company of defamation over the trailer for its upcoming documentary “Instadocs: The Prediction Games.” The document didn’t stay under wraps for long. CNN and The Hollywood Reporter were among the outlets that obtained it…
Insider, outsider trading: Do prediction markets predict?
Insider, outsider trading: Do prediction markets predict? The Sunday Guardian
Kalshi accuses Netflix of ‘misleading’ viewers in new prediction market documentary
Prediction market Kalshi on Friday threatened legal action against Netflix unless the streaming giant agrees to take down a trailer for an upcoming documentary about prediction markets. In a cease-and-desist letter sent to Netflix on Friday, Kalshi’s head of litigation, Jovalin Dedaj, alleged that the trailer contains “false and…
Robinhood in talks to add Crypto.com prediction markets as Kalshi rivalry grows: WSJ
A deal would let Robinhood customers trade yes-or-no contracts offered through Crypto.com’s derivatives business, though no deal has yet been reached.
Kalshi Threatens Legal Action Over Netflix Documentary Trailer
Kalshi Threatens Legal Action Over Netflix Documentary Trailer The Tech Buzz
Kalshi demands Netflix take down trailer for ‘Prediction Games’ documentary
Kalshi claims the trailer is “defamatory” and contains “both fabricated documents and false and misleading statements.”
Polymarket Seeks $400M Raise at $15B Valuation
Polymarket Seeks $400M Raise at $15B Valuation CoinMarketCap
Prediction Markets Turn LeBron James Free Agency Into A $245M Trade
Prediction Markets Turn LeBron James Free Agency Into A $245M Trade Yellow.com
Maryland election chief seeks probe of prediction markets
Maryland election chief seeks probe of prediction markets WBAL News Radio
Malik Nabers Expected to Miss Giants Opener Based on Kalshi Prediction Market
Kalshi suggests that Malik Nabers will return in Week 5 of the NFL season.
Kalshi Agrees to Use Third-Party Vendor to Keep Sports Markets Out of Nevada
Nevada Gaming Control Board gives Kalshi until Aug. 12 to implement GeoComply solution Prediction market operator Kalshi has reached a deal with Nevada, agreeing to use a third-party geofencing provider to keep people in the Silver State from trading contracts on elections, entertainment, or sporting events.
Crypto.com Prediction Exchange Seeks Federal Shield Ahead of Washington Crackdown
The Crypto.com-affiliated exchange behind OG has sued Washington officials before the state takes enforcement action against its prediction markets. The complaint argues that federal commodities law protects OG from state gambling rules and cites Washington’s successful injunction against Kalshi as an imminent threat.
Kalshi Threatens Netflix With Defamation Suit Over “Misleading” Prediction Market Doc Trailer
Kalshi Threatens Netflix With Defamation Suit Over “Misleading” Prediction Market Doc Trailer Deadline
AI-native prediction market K25.ai hits $200M valuation with Amber Group-led Series A
AI-native prediction market K25.ai hits $200M valuation with Amber Group-led Series A CryptoRank
Kalshi Accuses Netflix of Defamation Over Trailer for Prediction Markets Documentary
Kalshi Accuses Netflix of Defamation Over Trailer for Prediction Markets Documentary The Hollywood Reporter
Kalshi Slaps Netflix With Cease and Desist, Alleges AI Fabrication in Prediction Market Doc
Kalshi Slaps Netflix With Cease and Desist, Alleges AI Fabrication in Prediction Market Doc TheWrap
Kalshi demands Netflix take down trailer for ‘misleading’ prediction market documentary
Kalshi demands Netflix take down trailer for ‘misleading’ prediction market documentary CNN
Game Over? Diego Pavia Roster Prediction Market Low
Diego Pavia faces challenges to land on an NFL roster by Week 1 on Polymarket.
Maryland election chief seeks probe of prediction markets - WBAL-TV
Maryland election chief seeks probe of prediction markets WBAL-TV
CFTC Warns Prediction Markets Over Blanket Self-Certifications
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is tapping the brakes on prediction markets’ practice of “self-certifying” boilerplate contracts that could apply to myriad events.
Nuanced Testimony, Terry Duffy’s Misgivings, Netflix Prediction Market Documentary Highlight This Week’s Gambling Industry Bingos & Busts
Testimony before a House subcommittee ends up on either side of our weekly ledger, as we recap top headlines from the gambling industry this week. With the World Cup in our rearview mirror and football season still a few weeks away, sports bettors and bookmakers are able to take a bit of a summer breather.
New Mexico tribes seek injunction to block Kalshi on tribal lands
New Mexico tribes seek injunction to block Kalshi on tribal lands Tribal Business News
Brotherly Love: LeBron James Signing With 76ers Spikes Kalshi NBA Finals Price
The Philadelphia 76ers NBA Finals price spiked on Kalshi after signing LeBron James.
Wizards Worst? Trae Young and Anthony Davis Don’t Give Washington Anything on Kalshi
Kalshi is favoring the Washington Wizards to finish with the worst NBA regular season record in 2026-27.
How Kalshi won the World Cup
How Kalshi won the World Cup Sports Business Journal
Crypto.com’s prediction market OG takes Washington to court
Crypto.com’s prediction market OG takes Washington to court AffPapa
Here's Why Hyperliquid Is Now a Threat to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket
Here's Why Hyperliquid Is Now a Threat to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket The Motley Fool
Kalshi May Let Us Bet/Hedge On College Conference Realignment - The Event Horizon
Kalshi May Let Us Bet/Hedge On College Conference Realignment The Event Horizon | Dustin Gouker
Charles Schwab Calls CLARITY Act a ‘Fundamental Catalyst’ as White House and Thune Clash Over Timing
Charles Schwab, which manages $13 trillion in client assets, is calling the CLARITY Act a “really important fundamental catalyst” that “needs to pass” even as Senate Majority Leader John Thune and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt publicly disagree over whether a vote happens before the August recess. Wall Street’s $13 Trillion…
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: Washington Court Fight, Congressional Scrutiny and World Cup Records
Prediction markets faced growing pressure from courts and lawmakers this week, even as operators reported record World Cup activity and continued expanding into new products and partnerships. As results highlight prediction markets’ World Cup growth, legal and political scrutiny continued to intensify this week.
Kalshi cashes in with US$27 billion World Cup windfall, but legal issues remain
Kalshi cashes in with US$27 billion World Cup windfall, but legal issues remain South China Morning Post
Prediction Markets Signal Imminent Release of New Claude Opus Model
Prediction Markets Signal Imminent Release of New Claude Opus Model sekbernews.id
ProphetX and Players' Lounge Partner to Launch CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Markets to the Next Generation of Competitive Gamers
ProphetX and Players' Lounge Partner to Launch CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Markets to the Next Generation of Competitive Gamers PR Newswire
Valve’s Sticker Overhaul Squeezes Counter-Strike Esports Teams as Polymarket Expands Into Space
Counter-Strike esports orgs say Valve’s first capsule-free Major – the biggest and most prestigious tournaments in the scene – produced a fraction of the sticker income teams had expected, threatening a revenue stream that has financed smaller teams for years. The shift came amid a New York gambling lawsuit, even as prediction markets…
Wisconsin Warns Election-Market Traders They May Be Disqualified From Voting
Wisconsin election officials say residents who trade contracts tied to an election may become ineligible to vote in that same contest. Kalshi accused the commission of voter suppression and warned courts could force a retraction of any such move.
Kalshi locks horns with Wisconsin after state warns voters about betting on elections
Kalshi locks horns with Wisconsin after state warns voters about betting on elections Democracy Docket
The Miami Heat, LeBron James and prediction markets: how a ‘mistake’ video skewed a $245 million bet
The Miami Heat, LeBron James and prediction markets: how a ‘mistake’ video skewed a $245 million bet Fortune
The Miami Heat, LeBron James and prediction markets: how a ‘mistake’ social media post turbo-charged a $245 million wager
“There's a market for everything, and I think people have recognized that there's a market for everything,” Georgetown’s Marty Conway told Fortune.
Kalshi hits the back of the net with $27 billion FIFA World Cup windfall
Kalshi hits the back of the net with $27 billion FIFA World Cup windfall Reuters
Sports Prediction Markets Face Federal Oversight Review
Sports Prediction Markets Face Federal Oversight Review Legis1
ProphetX, Players’ Lounge Deal Tests CFTC Rules for Prediction Market Tech Providers
ProphetX, Players’ Lounge Deal Tests CFTC Rules for Prediction Market Tech Providers DeFi Rate
Kalshi Eyes Copper Perpetual Futures After Precious Metals Push
Horsford, Amodei introduce bill banning sports prediction market contracts
Horsford, Amodei introduce bill banning sports prediction market contracts FOX5 Vegas
I used to ignore prediction markets. Then I learned people were betting on wildfires
I used to ignore prediction markets. Then I learned people were betting on wildfires High Country News
Pennsylvania Bill Proposes New Regulatory Approach for Prediction Markets
The proposal would establish operating rules for prediction markets without imposing a tax, distinguishing Pennsylvania from several other states. Pennsylvania lawmakers have introduced legislation that would create a regulatory framework for prediction markets without taxing the industry.
New Instadoc Dives into the Booming, Bet-on-Anything World of Prediction Markets
New Instadoc Dives into the Booming, Bet-on-Anything World of Prediction Markets Netflix
Crypto.com’s OG Sues Washington After Kalshi Injunction
The prediction market operators filed a preemptive federal lawsuit days after Washington secured a preliminary injunction against Kalshi. Crypto.com’s prediction market platform, OG, has sued the State of Washington in federal court.
DeMarinis asks state prosecutor to investigate prediction markets
DeMarinis asks state prosecutor to investigate prediction markets Maryland Matters
LeBron-Miami Heat Reunion Watch: Shaq attacks naysayers
The Miami Heat continue to be the team most likely to land LeBron James according to the prediction markets, but Bronny James was asked about a potential move to Golden State, Anthony Davis rumors are everywhere and the Cavs remain a sentimental favorite.
Polymarket to challenge France’s nationwide website block
CME CEO Calls Some Sports Prediction Markets ‘Gambling’ as Exchange Expands Sports Contracts
The remarks came one day after CME certified additional sports event contracts. Executives argued CME’s event contracts differ from certain sportsbook-style prediction markets.
Kalshi opens prediction markets to FDA drug development decisions, clinical trial outcomes
Kalshi opens prediction markets to FDA drug development decisions, clinical trial outcomes HealthExec
The hottest market on Kalshi is one the NBA doesn’t think should exist
The hottest market on Kalshi is one the NBA doesn’t think should exist The Washington Post
How Prediction Markets Actually Work (And What It Takes to Build One Legally)
Offering players worldwide the opportunity to bet on any world event: this is the promise of prediction markets platforms. With the massive success and traction of names such as Polymarket and Kalshi, one may wonder: how do these companies operate, behind the curtain?
Prediction markets need better rules
Prediction markets need better rules The Economist
Nevada congressmen introduce bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets
Nevada congressmen introduce bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets The Nevada Independent
Can prediction markets win over Wall Street?
Can prediction markets win over Wall Street? The Economist
Prediction Markets’ Lobbying Outlays Soar as Scrutiny Ramps Up
Prediction Markets’ Lobbying Outlays Soar as Scrutiny Ramps Up Bloomberg Law News
Prediction markets as risk barometers?
Prediction markets as risk barometers? GIS Reports
Tesla and SpaceX Merger? Prediction Market Says it Could Happen Before This Date
Tesla and SpaceX Merger? Prediction Market Says it Could Happen Before This Date Benzinga
Kalshi Bets Election Fever Will Drive Platform Growth
Kalshi Bets Election Fever Will Drive Platform Growth The Daily Upside
Betting account in Cottrell’s name received $9mn in crypto from unidentified sources
Deposits in Polymarket wallet came as convicted fraudster was providing gifts to Farage
Kalshi prepares to poison midterm elections with betting BS
Kalshi prepares to poison midterm elections with betting BS Daily Kos
WA judge issues injunction against Kalshi for ‘likely violating’ state gambling laws
WA judge issues injunction against Kalshi for ‘likely violating’ state gambling laws FOX 13 Seattle
SEGG Media's Sports.com Predict Expands to Public Access with 1,195 Prediction Markets
SEGG Media's Sports.com Predict Expands to Public Access with 1,195 Prediction Markets Quiver Quantitative
Kalshi’s New Midterms Hub Comes With a Felony-Sized Asterisk
Kalshi’s New Midterms Hub Comes With a Felony-Sized Asterisk Gizmodo
Kalshi pushes deeper into politics as it eyes commodity contracts
Kalshi pushes deeper into politics as it eyes commodity contracts CoinDesk
Injunction issued in Kalshi lawsuit
Injunction issued in Kalshi lawsuit NonStop Local KHQ
Arbitrage Alert: Prediction Markets Offer Live Opportunities on 2028 Presidential Race, SCOTUS (July 22, 2026)
Arbitrage Alert: Prediction Markets Offer Live Opportunities on 2028 Presidential Race, SCOTUS (July 22, 2026) StartupHub.ai
Prediction Markets Still Have Republicans Winning Florida Governor's Race Despite Latest Polls Showing Dems Gaining Ground
Prediction Markets Still Have Republicans Winning Florida Governor's Race Despite Latest Polls Showing Dems Gaining Ground gambling911.com
CFTC Orders Kalshi To Honor Michigan Trades Amid Legal Battle
CFTC Orders Kalshi To Honor Michigan Trades Amid Legal Battle Gaming Today
Judge finds Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws
Judge finds Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws The Business Journals
Kambi Calls Entirely AI-Traded World Cup a Success, Weighs Prediction Market Entry
Kambi says its first entirely AI-traded World Cup processed more than $1.14 billion in stakes and over 100 million bets without manual trading intervention. The sportsbook supplier is also evaluating prediction-market partnerships and an internally developed product, but says licensing risks prevent an immediate US launch.
The Hidden House: Prediction Markets and How They’re Shaping Society
The Hidden House: Prediction Markets and How They’re Shaping Society The Roosevelt Institute
What’s Going on Between FanDuel and CME Group?
When FanDuel and CME Group launched their joint-venture prediction market app in December, CME Group president Lynne Fitzpatrick specifically touted how the product would “enable a new generation of users to express their views” on sports, among other topics. CME didn’t express any public misgivings about sports being included in FanDuel…
7 govs have banned state employees from prediction market wagering
7 govs have banned state employees from prediction market wagering Arizona Capitol Times
UK Officials Warn Match-Fixing Growing More Sophisticated as Prediction Markets Draw Scrutiny
Organized crime, international betting networks and evolving products such as prediction markets are reshaping the fight against match-fixing. Senior Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) officials warned the House of Lords that match-fixing is becoming more complex while arguing the international treaty the U.K.
Indian Gaming Association Urges Congress to Protect Tribal Sovereignty in Prediction Markets Hearing
Indian Gaming Association Urges Congress to Protect Tribal Sovereignty in Prediction Markets Hearing Native News Online
Kalshi Takes Nearly $200M in Trades on LeBron's Next Team
Kalshi Takes Nearly $200M in Trades on LeBron's Next Team Yahoo Sports
Kalshi Leads Push in Prediction Markets to Bolster Legal Talent
Kalshi Leads Push in Prediction Markets to Bolster Legal Talent Bloomberg Law News
Kalshi debuts a midterm election hub that relies on real-money bets to forecast race outcomes
Kalshi debuts a midterm election hub that relies on real-money bets to forecast race outcomes CBS News
House Flip? Senate Hold? Prediction Markets Unleash Wild 2026 Midterm Election Bets
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms while giving Republicans the edge to hold the Senate, with tens of millions of dollars wagered across hundreds of individual races and primary markets.
Polymarket ‘surprised’ France blocked site as information source, plans legal challenge
Last week, the ANJ ordered French internet service providers to block access to Polymarket ahead of the World Cup final.
What we know about the typical Polymarket user
What we know about the typical Polymarket user Pew Research Center
Kalshi Moves to Go Big on US Election Bets Ahead of Midterms
Kalshi Moves to Go Big on US Election Bets Ahead of Midterms Bloomberg Law News
Kalshi rolls out Midterm Hubs ahead of the November elections in the U.S.
Congress weighs regulating sports prediction markets
Congress weighs regulating sports prediction markets WBFF
Judge says Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws
Judge says Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws KING5.com
Polymarket to challenge French ban after 'disappointing' ANJ decision
Polymarket to challenge French ban after 'disappointing' ANJ decision Seeking Alpha
How a Kalshi executive is pitching Wall Street on prediction markets
How a Kalshi executive is pitching Wall Street on prediction markets Business Insider
Talos Brings Prediction Markets Onto Institutional Trading Infrastructure
Talos Brings Prediction Markets Onto Institutional Trading Infrastructure PR Newswire
Kalshi launches election hub for prediction markets ahead of midterms
The company said the page gives viewers of its event contracts a central place to see speculators' outlook for the midterm elections.
Kalshi debuts US midterms hub for election forecasts and polling data - KELO-AM
Kalshi debuts US midterms hub for election forecasts and polling data KELO-AM
Kalshi launches midterm election forecasting hub
Kalshi launched a new online hub Wednesday for midterm election forecasting, displaying prediction market odds for major races alongside polling averages, fundraising data and other election information. The platform touted its "Midterms Hub" as a "one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting," featuring Senate, House and…
Wisconsin Warns Election Prediction Market Traders They Could Face Felony Charges
The Elections Commission says trading election prediction contracts may disqualify voters from casting a ballot in that election. The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) has warned that residents who trade election prediction market contracts could face felony charges if they later vote in the same election.
The high price of insider information
Without tough enforcement, prediction platforms provide fertile ground for manipulation
Cavaliers Get Promising News On LeBron James’ Free Agency
The Cleveland Cavaliers are once again the favorites to land LeBron James in free agency after a recent change in the prediction market. Polymarket had a major change over the past few days that saw the Miami Heat passing Cleveland as the top LeBron choice.
Tarik Skubal Trade Market Tanking on Kalshi Amidst Tigers Resurgence
Kalshi is leaning on Tarik Skubal staying with the Detroit Tigers rather than being traded.
King County judge rules Kalshi likely violates state gambling laws - The Spokesman-Review
King County judge rules Kalshi likely violates state gambling laws The Spokesman-Review
House lawmakers question sports prediction markets as tribes defend gaming authority
House lawmakers question sports prediction markets as tribes defend gaming authority Tribal Business News
Seattle judge deals blow to Kalshi, rejects prediction market’s federal defense
Seattle judge deals blow to Kalshi, rejects prediction market’s federal defense GeekWire
Prediction Markets Bet on Lobbying for Policy Wins - News of the United States
Prediction Markets Bet on Lobbying for Policy Wins News of the United States - NOTUS
Wisconsin residents could lose voting rights over prediction market bets
Wisconsin’s Election Commission (WEC) warned in a statement on Tuesday that betting on elections that you cast ballots in is illegal in the state and there will be consequences. “We want voters to understand that they cannot legally make a bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election,” WEC Administrator Meagan Wolfe said,...
Prediction Markets and Insider Trading
Prediction Markets and Insider Trading Davis Wright Tremaine
Judge blocks Kalshi in WA, ruling the platform likely ran 'illegal gambling operation'
Judge blocks Kalshi in WA, ruling the platform likely ran 'illegal gambling operation' KUOW
Prediction markets and their opponents are spending more to influence Congress in 2026
Prediction markets and their opponents are spending more to influence Congress in 2026 CNBC
Wisconsin's warning rankles Kalshi
Welcome to The Hill's Business & Economy newsletter {beacon} Business & Economy Business & Economy The Big Story Wisconsin residents could lose vote with prediction market bets The Wisconsin Election Commission (WEC) warned in a statement on Tuesday that betting on elections that you cast ballots in is illegal in the state and there...
Polymarket, Kalshi push back after Wisconsin Elections Commission warns against ballot betting
Polymarket, Kalshi push back after Wisconsin Elections Commission warns against ballot betting WPR
The forecast for prediction markets
Are the platforms useful or dangerous?
Kalshi Seeks to Launch Perpetual Futures for Precious Metals
Kalshi Seeks to Launch Perpetual Futures for Precious Metals WSJ
When the Theory Does Not Fit: Prediction Markets and the Limits of Insider Trading Enforcement
When the Theory Does Not Fit: Prediction Markets and the Limits of Insider Trading Enforcement ArentFox Schiff
Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue to Top Crypto, Analysts Say
Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc.’s revenue from prediction market is set to overshadow that from cryptocurrency trading, starting as soon as the second quarter, analysts at Bernstein and Piper Sandler said this week.
Congress weighs its role as fight over sports betting prediction market oversight forges on
As state and federal regulators continue to clash over who should oversee sports-related prediction markets, lawmakers consider stepping in.
Washington judge corners Kalshi, setting up another state-fed showdown
Washington judge corners Kalshi, setting up another state-fed showdown Courthouse News
The $2 Billion Question Behind Kalshi’s New Prediction Market
The $2 Billion Question Behind Kalshi’s New Prediction Market inc.com
Commercial and Tribal Gaming Post Record Revenue Despite Industry Warnings Over Prediction Markets
New AGA and NIGC reports show that commercial and tribal gaming revenue continues to grow, despite the growing popularity of prediction markets. The U.S.
Kalshi Seeks Approval to List Perpetual Futures Tied to Gold (1)
Kalshi Seeks Approval to List Perpetual Futures Tied to Gold (1) Bloomberg Law News
Kalshi Targets Institutions
Kalshi Targets Institutions Markets Media
WA judge halts Kalshi ‘prediction market’ over state gambling laws
WA judge halts Kalshi ‘prediction market’ over state gambling laws The Seattle Times
Healthcare students are turning to Kalshi and betting platforms to pay for their degrees, survey shows
Healthcare students are turning to Kalshi and betting platforms to pay for their degrees, survey shows CNBC
Kalshi seeks approval for perpetual precious metal contracts
Proposed offering illustrates prediction platform’s evolution into financial products to challenge traditional exchanges
Washington AG announced court order against Kalshi betting platform
Washington AG announced court order against Kalshi betting platform NonStop Local KHQ
Kalshi’s World Cup “Trades” Were Poorly Disguised Bets
Kalshi’s World Cup “Trades” Were Poorly Disguised Bets Better Markets
Washington judge blocks Kalshi contracts, cites state's gambling law
Washington judge blocks Kalshi contracts, cites state's gambling law Reuters
PLL Quietly Struck Exclusive Deal With Polymarket
PLL Quietly Struck Exclusive Deal With Polymarket Front Office Sports
Kalshi's 'chronically online' war room unlocked World Cup virality—and AI may bring back monoculture
Kalshi's 'chronically online' war room unlocked World Cup virality—and AI may bring back monoculture Fortune
Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader
Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader Bloomberg.com
Kalshi, CFTC clash with states over prediction market jurisdiction
Kalshi, CFTC clash with states over prediction market jurisdiction Compliance Week
Polymarket and Kalshi Restrict Ireland as GRAI Threatens Court Orders
Ireland’s gambling regulator says prediction markets must block local users or risk High Court enforcement, as Polymarket and Kalshi add the country to their restricted jurisdictions. The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) has confirmed to Gambling Insider that it warned major prediction market platforms operating without a…
Red Sox World Series Prediction Market Rocketing From Depths on Kalshi
Kalshi adjusted its World Series price for the Boston Red Sox during its current win streak.
Kalshi Seeks Approval to List Perpetual Futures Tied to Gold
Kalshi Inc. is seeking approval to expand precious-metals trading on its platform with a popular type of derivative that never expires for gold, silver and platinum.
Kalshi Gains 3 Million New Users Amid World Cup Gambling
Kalshi Gains 3 Million New Users Amid World Cup Gambling Iredell Free News
Kalshi’s ‘chronically online’ war room figured out World Cup virality — and realized AI might be bringing back the monoculture
Here's how a 20-person team turned the World Cup into a $24 billion trading moment, and discovered something unexpected about what AI is doing to culture.
Kalshi took $40 billion in World Cup bets — and says it owes no sports-betting tax
Kalshi took $40 billion in World Cup bets — and says it owes no sports-betting tax Yahoo! Finance Canada
Cam Skattebo Injury Concern? Kalshi Rushing Prediction Market Suggests No Issue
Kalshi is leaning on Cam Skattebo to finish the 2026-27 season with over 750 rushing yards.
Washington Court Grants Preliminary Injunction Against Kalshi, Rejects Federal Preemption Arguments
The court found Washington is likely to succeed on claims that Kalshi’s event contracts violate state gambling laws, rejecting the operator’s argument that federal law preempts state enforcement. A Washington state judge has granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi.
Prediction markets boom as Korea grapples with legal gray zone
Prediction markets boom as Korea grapples with legal gray zone The Korea Times
Washington Judge Rejects Kalshi’s Federal Defense, Grants State Injunction
A Washington state judge has granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi after rejecting its argument that federal commodities law overrides state gambling rules. The court found Washington is likely to prove its claims, but will not finalize the restrictions imposed on the prediction market until August.
The New Insider Traders Lurking on Prediction Markets
Sites like Polymarket can be rewarding for traders with inside info. There are different ways to get it.
Is buying into a prediction market OK if you're voting in Wisconsin?
Is buying into a prediction market OK if you're voting in Wisconsin? Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Spotlight Is on Sports Prediction Markets at House Hearing Today
Spotlight Is on Sports Prediction Markets at House Hearing Today Barron's
Washington judge blocks Kalshi’s sports prediction markets over state gambling laws
A Washington state court granted the state's motion for a preliminary injunction, saying Kalshi operates illegal gambling activities.
Polymarket refers nearly 100 wallets amid $200M insider-trade concerns
Polymarket refers nearly 100 wallets amid $200M insider-trade concerns Crypto News
Kalshi, Oura Ring, and AT&T Score the Most Engaging Ads of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, ranked by TV outcomes data on edo.com/worldcup
Kalshi, Oura Ring, and AT&T Score the Most Engaging Ads of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, ranked by TV outcomes data on edo.com/worldcup Business Wire
World Cup Heats Up Prediction Market Vibes On Wall Street
World Cup Heats Up Prediction Market Vibes On Wall Street LegalSportsReport
Robinhood’s Prediction Market Will Overtake Crypto, Says Bernstein
Robinhood’s Prediction Market Will Overtake Crypto, Says Bernstein Yahoo Finance
How World Cup Prediction Markets Fared: Data for Kalshi, Others
Kalshi bills itself as the “trade on everything” exchange. During the World Cup, it doubled as the advertise on everything exchange.
Kalshi, Oura Ring, and AT&T Score the Most Engaging Ads of the FIFA World Cup 2026™
Kalshi, Oura Ring, and AT&T Score the Most Engaging Ads of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ EDO, Inc.
Bernstein's Ian Moore on why prediction markets are outpacing sports books
Bernstein's Ian Moore on why prediction markets are outpacing sports books CNBC
Illinois Stands Against Injunction in Prediction Market Lawsuit
Illinois Stands Against Injunction in Prediction Market Lawsuit TheLines.com
Kalshi, Polymarket open interest falls 20% as World Cup frenzy winds down
Sports accounted for 80% of both Kalshi and Polymarket's total volumes throughout the weekslong World Cup tournament.
Betting on sovereignty: Heinrich fights to protect tribal gaming from prediction markets
Betting on sovereignty: Heinrich fights to protect tribal gaming from prediction markets New Mexico Political Report
Spain–Argentina World Cup Final Drives Nearly $2B Across Prediction Markets
Prediction markets recorded nearly $2 billion in final-specific trading as Spain defeated Argentina to win the 2026 World Cup. Kalshi accounted for almost 96% of the combined volume, with activity surging by more than $620 million from Friday through settlement.
US House weighs sports-contract ban threatening Kalshi and Polymarket
US House weighs sports-contract ban threatening Kalshi and Polymarket Crypto News
Kalshi gains 3 million users amid World Cup gambling
Kalshi gains 3 million users amid World Cup gambling Mashable
US Sen. Heinrich, New Mexico tribes seek rules to rein in prediction markets
US Sen. Heinrich, New Mexico tribes seek rules to rein in prediction markets Source New Mexico
NCAA Warns Prediction Markets Could Intensify Threats
NCAA Warns Prediction Markets Could Intensify Threats Covers.com
The federal government typically left gambling to the states — until the prediction markets
The federal government typically left gambling to the states — until the prediction markets Inquirer.com
Hyperliquid Bets Big on Prediction Markets With Permissionless HIP-4 Push
Hyperliquid told users on July 19 that its outcome markets product, known as HIP-4, will move to permissionless deployment in a coming network upgrade. The announcement came through the exchange’s Telegram channel.
John Harbaugh Holds Big Lead in NFL Coach of the Year Prediction Market on Kalshi
Kalshi leans on John Harbaugh
Arizona moves to curb prediction market wagers by government employees
Arizona moves to curb prediction market wagers by government employees Axios
Kalshi adds 3 million users during 2026 FIFA World Cup
Kalshi adds 3 million users during 2026 FIFA World Cup qz.com
Hyperliquid To Add Decentralized Prediction Market
Bernstein lifts Robinhood target to $160, sees prediction markets revenue overtaking crypto
Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target to $160, citing prediction markets, Rothera, and Robinhood Chain as key revenue drivers.
Kalshi and AppliedXL launch prediction markets on clinical trials
Kalshi and AppliedXL launch prediction markets on clinical trials Yogonet
Fortune Tech: Prediction markets milestone, delivery apps pressure chains, Apple Live Notes
Fortune Tech: Prediction markets milestone, delivery apps pressure chains, Apple Live Notes Fortune
A Mysterious Polymarket Trader Walked Away With $1.35 Million in Hours After One Bold World Cup Wager—and
A Mysterious Polymarket Trader Walked Away With $1.35 Million in Hours After One Bold World Cup Wager—and Benzinga
Prediction Markets, Earnings and June Revenue Reports: Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
A Congress subcommittee will discuss sports event contracts, while gambling operators begin reporting earnings, and more June sports betting figures are likely to come. Prediction markets remain at the center of gambling industry developments this week, as Congress prepares to examine sports event contracts and the sector continues…
Polymarket Whale Turns $1.9M $TRUMP Win Into $1.2M World Cup Loss
Polymarket Whale Turns $1.9M $TRUMP Win Into $1.2M World Cup Loss Yahoo Finance
Hyperliquid to Launch Open Prediction Markets with HIP-4
Hyperliquid to Launch Open Prediction Markets with HIP-4 ForkLog
Hyperliquid plans to add decentralized prediction markets in upgrade to HIP-4
NFL Playoff Prediction Market for Every Team: Rams Highest, Cardinals Lowest
Kalshi offers prices on every NFL team to make or miss the playoffs. The Los Angeles Rams have the strongest price to make them.
Trump Vows to Keep Bringing Prices Down: Here’s What the Inflation Data Shows
U.S. President Donald Trump pledged on Sunday to keep pushing consumer prices lower, claiming oil, gas, eggs and prescription drugs are all “dropping FAST.” June’s inflation data largely supports the trend, with one notable exception in the egg aisle.
Hyperliquid plans permissionless HIP 4 prediction market deployment
Hyperliquid plans permissionless HIP 4 prediction market deployment Crypto News
Kalshi Adds 3 Million Users During FIFA World Cup Boom
Kalshi Adds 3 Million Users During FIFA World Cup Boom Yahoo Finance
Polymarket Faces Ban by France’s Gambling Regulator
Polymarket Faces Ban by France’s Gambling Regulator PYMNTS.com
It's Sometimes Sunny in Philadelphia
Proposes using quasi-experimental methods from econometrics — regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences — to turn prediction markets into causal tools for evaluating candidates and policies. Instead of futarchy's wholesale replacement of governance with markets, this approach uses conditional markets on vote margins…

Hokies' head coach James Franklin admits 'I'm a huge Beau Pribula fan'
If prediction markets had been in vogue two years ago, you could have gotten astronomical odds that both Beau Pribula and James Franklin would be in Charlotte,
Ninth Circuit judges question Kalshi’s prediction market on tribal land
Ninth Circuit judges question Kalshi’s prediction market on tribal land CDC Gaming
France orders internet providers to block Polymarket ahead of World Cup final
The order cuts French users off ahead of the World Cup final, which will settle the largest event markets in the industry's history.
Software Supply Chain Security Miss Drained $3M from Polymarket
Software Supply Chain Security Miss Drained $3M from Polymarket Cybersecurity Insiders
Kalshi Added Three Million Users During World Cup
Kalshi Added Three Million Users During World Cup Benzinga
Prediction Market Traders Turn Bearish on Clarity Act Becoming Law in 2026
Prediction market traders are betting against the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, even as Kalshi bettors put strong odds on a Senate vote happening within weeks. On Polymarket, the market asking whether the Clarity Act (H.R.
Prediction market firm facing proceedings by regulator
Prediction market firm facing proceedings by regulator RTE.ie
France Blocks Polymarket Nationwide After Hackers Rigged Weather Bets
France Blocks Polymarket Nationwide After Hackers Rigged Weather Bets Startup Fortune
Prediction Markets Swell to 27% of Sports Bets During World Cup
Prediction-market trading has surged during a blowout World Cup, far outpacing the growth at traditional sportsbooks and driving home the competitive threat that companies like Kalshi now pose to the sports-gambling industry.
Gambling regulator threatens prediction market with High Court action
Gambling regulator threatens prediction market with High Court action Carlow Live
Kalshi adds 3 million new users as prediction market capitalizes on the World Cup
The prediction market has launched some ads featuring soccer players, as well as formed a partnership to display its brand in more places during the tournament.
The missing data in the prediction market debate
The missing data in the prediction market debate Tribal Business News
World Cup integrity questioned by European rights body urging FIFA to help protect 2030 tournament
Europe’s top human rights body questioned the integrity of the World Cup and urged FIFA on Sunday to help build a stronger framework for the 2030 edition being played mostly in Spain and Portugal. Swiss politician Alain Berset cited FIFA suspending a ban for United States forward Folarin Balugun while under pressure from U.S.
France orders ISPs to block Polymarket as scrutiny widens
France orders ISPs to block Polymarket as scrutiny widens Crypto News
The ‘Bad Blood’ Between Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan and Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour
Shayne Coplan of Polymarket and Tarek Mansour of Kalshi are young billionaires intent on dominating prediction markets. It’s more than a battle.
Polymarket down. Polymarket outage. Is Polymarket down right now?
Polymarket down. Polymarket outage.
Prediction market users are poised to make the World Cup the largest gambling event in history, analysts said. When Argentina and Spain take the field on Sunday for the final game, more than $5.55 billion will be riding on the winner on Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction market users are poised to make the World Cup the largest gambling event in history, analysts said. When Argentina and Spain take the field on Sunday for the final game, more than $5.55 billion will be riding on the winner on Polymarket and Kalshi facebook.com
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Trading Platform to Use for the 2026 World Cup Final
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Trading Platform to Use for the 2026 World Cup Final FOX Sports
France Orders ISPs to Block Polymarket After French Traffic Surges to 578,000 Visits
France’s national gaming regulator has ordered internet service providers to completely block access to the crypto-based prediction site Polymarket. Polymarket Traffic from French IP Addresses Surges France’s national gaming regulator announced Friday it has ordered internet service providers to completely block access to Polymarket,…
France orders country's internet service providers to block Polymarket
On Kalshi and Polymarket, World Cup Final Drives Bets Into the Billions
On Kalshi and Polymarket, World Cup Final Drives Bets Into the Billions The New York Times
Prediction Markets Signal More Pain For Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Despite Bullish Analyst Consensus
Prediction Markets Signal More Pain For Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Despite Bullish Analyst Consensus foreignpolicyjournal.com
The Supreme Court could eventually decide if Kalshi is just sports gambling
The Supreme Court could eventually decide if Kalshi is just sports gambling CDC Gaming
Pascal Closes $9 Million Series A to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets
Pascal Closes $9 Million Series A to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets Bettors Insider
Larry Fink Comes out as Bullish, CFTC Intervenes With Kalshi, and More
This week’s crypto storylines mixed balance-sheet stress, regulation, venture hindsight, geopolitics, and macro sentiment. Michael Saylor built a $3 billion cash buffer around Strategy’s bitcoin stack, the CFTC backed Kalshi in its Michigan fight, and Tim Draper reflected on missing Coinbase before later joining the ride.
World Cup Betting Frenzy: $5.5B Wagers Back Spain to Crush Argentina
Two prediction market platforms are pricing the same outcome for Sunday’s World Cup final, with Polymarket and Kalshi bettors both putting Spain ahead of Argentina as the teams prepare to meet at Metlife Stadium in New Jersey. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m.
UFC Prediction Markets Lopsided for Du Plessis vs. Usman
Polymarket heavily leans on Dricus Du Plessis over Kamaru Usman at UFC Fight Night. Usman has lost three of his last four bouts.
How are prediction markets taxed? The IRS hasn’t provided guidance yet
How are prediction markets taxed? The IRS hasn’t provided guidance yet CNBC
Crypto Volume on Prediction Markets Surges 44x in 2026
Crypto Volume on Prediction Markets Surges 44x in 2026 Casino.org
The New Washington Temptation: Inside Information and a Prediction Market Account
The New Washington Temptation: Inside Information and a Prediction Market Account WSJ
World Cup Final Drives Billions in Bets on Kalshi and Polymarket
The soccer tournament has helped propel the prediction markets to new user records, creating what may be the largest gambling event in history.
Alleged insider betting by Trump teleprompter operator sparks Kalshi investigation
Alleged insider betting by Trump teleprompter operator sparks Kalshi investigation cbs19.tv
Wintermute-Backed Pascal Raises $9M as USV Bets Big on Prediction Markets
Wintermute-Backed Pascal Raises $9M as USV Bets Big on Prediction Markets CoinGape
Federal judge rejects Kalshi bid to block New York gambling law enforcement
Federal judge rejects Kalshi bid to block New York gambling law enforcement WRGB
Trump teleprompter accused of betting on President's speeches on Kalshi
Trump teleprompter accused of betting on President's speeches on Kalshi CBS News
France orders internet providers to block access to Polymarket prediction site
France orders internet providers to block access to Polymarket prediction site France 24
Underdog Files First 7 Sports Contracts for Its Own Prediction Exchange
Underdog has filed the first seven sports event-contract templates for UDX, the federally regulated exchange it acquired in March. The filings target an initial listing no later than July 17, moving Underdog closer to controlling its own contracts rather than relying exclusively on outside exchanges.
Augur returns with decentralized layer for disputed prediction markets
Augur returns with decentralized layer for disputed prediction markets Crypto News
World Cup Booms on Kalshi, Trump’s Teleprompter Operator Caught Insider Trading in This Week’s Bingos & Busts
Our weekly recap of gambling industry headlines includes massive World Cup trading volume on prediction markets, a Trump technical assistant and Bryce Harper missing the obvious, Nigel Eccles, and Seinfeld. As Spain and Argentina prepare to face off in Sunday’s FIFA World Cup 2026 Final, trading volume keeps skyrocketing on prediction…
Prediction Market Startup Pascal Lands $9M in First Funding Round
Prediction Market Startup Pascal Lands $9M in First Funding Round Casino.org
Five Tribes call for oversight of prediction markets
Five Tribes call for oversight of prediction markets cherokeephoenix.org
Polymarket’s Corporate Structure Is a Mystery—Even to Some of Its Former Employees
Polymarket’s Corporate Structure Is a Mystery—Even to Some of Its Former Employees WIRED
Prediction Markets Find a Whole New Way to Be Evil
Prediction Markets Find a Whole New Way to Be Evil Pajiba
World Cup final is already the biggest ever prediction market as Kalshi bets top $1.27 billion—with Spain favored to beat Argentina
World Cup final is already the biggest ever prediction market as Kalshi bets top $1.27 billion—with Spain favored to beat Argentina Fortune
Trump regulator orders Kalshi to defy Michigan court – escalating battle over prediction markets
Trump regulator orders Kalshi to defy Michigan court – escalating battle over prediction markets CNN
France blocks access to Polymarket
France blocks access to Polymarket France 24
Late-night hosts roast White House Kalshi betting scandal 'grift'
Late-night hosts roast White House Kalshi betting scandal 'grift' USA Today
People are making wildfire bets on prediction markets. Experts say it could lead to disaster
People are making wildfire bets on prediction markets. Experts say it could lead to disaster CNN
French internet service providers told to block access to Polymarket
French internet service providers told to block access to Polymarket Reuters
Sonny Gray Most Likely Pitcher to be Traded on Kalshi Prediction Market
Kalshi favors Sonny Gray to be traded ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
White House insists it has ‘extremely strict ethical guidelines’ as teleprompter op goes on unpaid leave over $100,000 insider trading allegations
A longtime aide is on unpaid leave after Kalshi flagged trades tied to presidential speeches and referred them to the CFTC.
New prediction market entrant Pascal closes $9 million Series A
New prediction market entrant Pascal closes $9 million Series A Yogonet
DAZN and ADI Predictstreet Announce Exclusive Global Prediction Market Partnership
DAZN and ADI Predictstreet Announce Exclusive Global Prediction Market Partnership Sports Video Group
Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator accused of making Kalshi bets on president’s speeches
Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator accused of making Kalshi bets on president’s speeches fox10tv.com
Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9M Series A led by USV to target pro traders
Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9M Series A led by USV to target pro traders CryptoRank
Crypto-style derivatives reach AI compute ahead of planned CME and ICE futures: Bernstein
Crypto-style perps and prediction markets hit AI compute ahead of CME and ICE, with regulated GPU futures targeted for late 2026.
Trump's teleprompter operator on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets
Trump's teleprompter operator on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets NBC New York
Forbes Daily: Kalshi Is Now Letting Users Bet On Clinical Trials
Forbes Daily: Kalshi Is Now Letting Users Bet On Clinical Trials Forbes
FIRST.bet and ADI Predictstreet join forces to scale regulated prediction markets across LatAm
FIRST.bet and ADI Predictstreet join forces to scale regulated prediction markets across LatAm Yogonet
Spoiler! How prediction markets broke reality TV.
Prediction markets allow people to bet on wildfires. Experts fear it will fuel arson
Prediction markets allow people to bet on wildfires. Experts fear it will fuel arson WLWT
Trump's teleprompter operator on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets on Trump speeches
Trump's teleprompter operator on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets on Trump speeches AP News
A Scrappy New York Startup Is Betting $9 Million It Can Outsmart Kalshi and Polymarket
A Scrappy New York Startup Is Betting $9 Million It Can Outsmart Kalshi and Polymarket Startup Fortune
DAZN, ADI Predictstreet to Team Up on Global Sports Prediction Markets
DAZN, ADI Predictstreet to Team Up on Global Sports Prediction Markets Yahoo Sports
Pascal raises $9M in Series A to take on Kalshi and Polymarket with institutional-grade prediction markets
Pascal raises $9M in Series A to take on Kalshi and Polymarket with institutional-grade prediction markets Crypto Briefing
Jump Trading Expands Prediction Markets Team as Volumes Surge
Jump Trading Expands Prediction Markets Team as Volumes Surge Bitcoin Foundation
Kalshi says it's not a sportsbook even as World Cup bets surge
Kalshi says it's not a sportsbook even as World Cup bets surge NPR
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: Court Battles, CFTC Action and Kalshi’s New Products
Prediction markets faced another week of legal battles, congressional scrutiny and product expansion, with Kalshi fighting on multiple fronts while new exchanges and products continued to emerge. Courts in New York, Michigan, and Washington saw new developments involving Kalshi this week, while the CFTC exercised emergency powers for the…
White House teleprompter operator made more than $100,000 on Kalshi bets on Trump speeches
White House teleprompter operator made more than $100,000 on Kalshi bets on Trump speeches CBS News
Prediction market trading platform @pascaldottrade raised $9M in a Series A funding round led by @usv.
SpaceX Stock to Close Higher by July End? Probability on Crypto Prediction Market Falls From 61% to 32%
SpaceX Stock to Close Higher by July End? Probability on Crypto Prediction Market Falls From 61% to 32% Benzinga
Stanford Study Flags Bitcoin Market Manipulation on Polymarket
Stanford Study Flags Bitcoin Market Manipulation on Polymarket TradingView
Illinois Considers Steeper Sports Betting Taxes and New Rules for Prediction Markets
Illinois Considers Steeper Sports Betting Taxes and New Rules for Prediction Markets rg.org
Kalshi pulls plug on flight cancellation contracts after social media blowback
Kalshi pulls plug on flight cancellation contracts after social media blowback Fortune
White House teleprompter operator investigated over alleged Kalshi trades on Trump speeches
White House teleprompter operator investigated over alleged Kalshi trades on Trump speeches Axios
Maricopa County bans employees from wagering on prediction markets
Maricopa County bans employees from wagering on prediction markets WSMV
CFTC Probes Teleprompter Operator’s Kalshi Bets on Trump (1)
CFTC Probes Teleprompter Operator’s Kalshi Bets on Trump (1) news.bloombergtax.com
CFTC Probes White House Teleprompter’s Kalshi Bets on Trump
CFTC Probes White House Teleprompter’s Kalshi Bets on Trump Bloomberg Law News
Trump teleprompter operator faces scrutiny over prediction market bets
Aide allegedly used advanced knowledge of president’s speeches to profit on ‘mention markets’ wagers
Kalshi Is Set to Start Taking Bets on Drug Trials
Kalshi Is Set to Start Taking Bets on Drug Trials Gizmodo
Researchers find signs of manipulation in Polymarket five-minute Bitcoin contracts
Researchers find signs of manipulation in Polymarket five-minute Bitcoin contracts ForkLog
White House teleprompter operator on unpaid leave after alleged bets on Trump speeches
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US Lawmakers Propose Facial Age Verification Across Online Betting Markets
A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers wants online sportsbooks and prediction markets to scan users’ faces to estimate their age before allowing them to bet or trade.
France’s World Cup Exit Erases Sportsbook Liability as Prediction Volume Surges
France’s 2-0 semifinal defeat to Spain eliminated one of the most heavily backed teams on U.S. sportsbooks, wiping out major outright and player-prop liabilities.
Kalshi hits pause on flight cancellation contracts
The prediction markets company has planned to offer the wagers as a way to hedge travel risks, but critics warned the contracts could be misused.
WATCH: Trump believes his Kalshi-betting teleprompter operator is a 'disgrace,' Leavitt says
WATCH: Trump believes his Kalshi-betting teleprompter operator is a 'disgrace,' Leavitt says PBS
Pharmalittle: We're reading about Kalshi bets on clinical trials, a Merck cholesterol pill, and more
Pharmalittle: We're reading about Kalshi bets on clinical trials, a Merck cholesterol pill, and more STAT
Lionel Messi vs Kylian Mbappe for Golden Boot on Kalshi
There is no bigger stage than the World Cup final and third-place game to settle the Golden Boot. “Markets now favor Lionel Messi over Kylian Mbappé to win his
White House Teleprompter Operator Bet on Trump Speeches, Kalshi Says
A technical assistant to President Trump won around $100,000, according to the prediction market, which flagged the activity to the federal government.
Kalshi Is Letting People Bet On Clinical Trials And FDA Drug Decisions
Kalshi Is Letting People Bet On Clinical Trials And FDA Drug Decisions Forbes
Governors ban state employees from insider trading on prediction markets
Governors ban state employees from insider trading on prediction markets Route Fifty
Maricopa County adopts prediction market ban for employees
Maricopa County adopts prediction market ban for employees Arizona Capitol Times
A Sports-Betting ETF Is Like Old-School Stockpicking
Proposed prediction market ETFs risk missing the point
Trump Teleprompter Operator Faces Trading Ban After Alleged $100K Kalshi Windfall: Report
A White House teleprompter operator who has worked behind the scenes of Donald Trump’s biggest speeches since 2016 is now the subject of a federal investigation into whether he used advance knowledge of the president’s remarks to win more than $100,000 on a prediction market, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to […]
Spain vs Argentina: Kalshi World Cup Prediction Market Tabs Clear Frontrunner
Kalshi is leaning on Spain over Argentina to win the World Cup. There is a case to make on both sides.
White House teleprompter operator placed on leave amid prediction market insider trading investigation
White House teleprompter operator placed on leave amid prediction market insider trading investigation Politico
Kalshi hopes to explore users betting on canceled flights
Kalshi hopes to explore users betting on canceled flights Yahoo Finance
Kalshi to offer betting on drug trial results and FDA regulatory decisions
Kalshi to offer betting on drug trial results and FDA regulatory decisions The Guardian
Kalshi says it's working with feds over nearly $100K in Trump teleprompter speech bets
The prediction market platform Kalshi said Thursday that it flagged suspicious trades on President Trump's speeches to federal regulators that are reportedly connected to the president's longtime teleprompter operator. ABC News reported that Gabriel Perez, who was first hired by Trump in 2016, is in settlement talks with the Commodity…
Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator accused of using insider knowledge to place bets on Kalshi: ABC News
President Trump's teleprompter is under scrutiny following a report alleging that he used insider knowledge to place bets on Kalshi.
Sports Prediction Markets Need Federal Protections
Sports Prediction Markets Need Federal Protections Legis1
Kalshi bets on Wall Street
Kalshi bets on Wall Street Semafor
Kalshi flags irregularities tied to trades on Trump statements, source says
Kalshi flags irregularities tied to trades on Trump statements, source says TradingView
Kalshi's 'Segregation Market' turns Black suffering into a betting line
Kalshi's 'Segregation Market' turns Black suffering into a betting line Daytona Times
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Restore Voided MI Trades
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Restore Voided MI Trades PlayMichigan
E1’s All-Electric Raceboat Championship Adds Live Prediction Markets
E1’s All-Electric Raceboat Championship Adds Live Prediction Markets Stock Titan
DAZN enters prediction markets space via ADI Predictstreet partnership
DAZN enters prediction markets space via ADI Predictstreet partnership egr.global
Elections, death, war: Where should regulators draw the line with prediction markets?
Elections, death, war: Where should regulators draw the line with prediction markets? Northeastern Global News
Luis Arraez Trade Market Spiking on Kalshi as Giants Sink
Kalshi strongly favors Luis Arraez to be traded from the San Francisco Giants.
Kalshi to allow bets on clinical trials, FDA decisions
Kalshi to allow bets on clinical trials, FDA decisions Reuters
Trump teleprompter operator allegedly made Kalshi bets on president's statements; CFTC investigating
Trump teleprompter operator allegedly made Kalshi bets on president's statements; CFTC investigating CNBC
As prediction markets boom, questions arise over who will be the watchdog
As prediction markets boom, questions arise over who will be the watchdog CNBC
Google Expands Prediction Market Ad Ban to Michigan and New York
Google’s list of states where prediction market ads are prohibited has expanded to four, with the company adding New York and Michigan. Google has added Michigan and New York to the list of states where advertisements for prediction market contracts and related products are prohibited, extending restrictions that already apply in Nevada…
Kalshi draws backlash over Jackie Robinson prediction market ad
Kalshi draws backlash over Jackie Robinson prediction market ad The Center Square
Ladbrokes Owner Entain to Cut 2% of Workforce as UK Taxes Bite
Entain Plc will cut 500 jobs, or about 2% of its global workforce, as the gambling industry grapples with higher UK taxes, tighter regulation and growing competition from prediction markets.
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Honor Trades a Michigan Court Told It to Cancel
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Honor Trades a Michigan Court Told It to Cancel The Defiant
Stanford Study Finds Signs of Bitcoin Market Manipulation on Polymarket, $8.2M in Profits Identified
Stanford Study Finds Signs of Bitcoin Market Manipulation on Polymarket, $8.2M in Profits Identified CCN.com
Gaming Bonds Lose Allure as Threat From Prediction Markets Grows
Investors increasingly see gaming bonds as a losing bet.
Jump Trading Doubles Team to Ride Record Prediction Market Boom
As prediction markets draw record trading around events like the World Cup, Jump Trading Group is betting the once-niche contracts are becoming a lasting corner of Wall Street.
Kalshi launches biotech prediction markets pilot program
Kalshi launches biotech prediction markets pilot program Kalshi News
Exclusive: Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9 million to challenge heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket
Exclusive: Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9 million to challenge heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket Fortune
Kalshi is trying to turn flight cancellations into trades
Kalshi is trying to turn flight cancellations into trades Yahoo Finance
Warren Buffett pulls no punches on stock market for 2026
The S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs this year. Retail traders are piling into Micron and the SpaceXIPO.
Kalshi comes for biopharma, with prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA approvals
Kalshi comes for biopharma, with prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA approvals STAT
Tarik Skubal Trade Prediction Market Trending Down
The Detroit Tigers are trending towards keeping Tarik Skubal beyond the MLB trade deadline per Kalshi.
Kalshi Will Offer Sports-Style Betting on Drug Trial Results
Kalshi Will Offer Sports-Style Betting on Drug Trial Results Bloomberg.com
Stanford Study: Polymarket’s Bitcoin Bets Were Rigged in the Final 10 Seconds
A small group of traders extracted $8.2 million from Polymarket’s five-minute bitcoin contracts by pushing the spot price on Binance just before settlement, researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University found. Striking New Findings Emerge Polymarket’s fastest bitcoin betting product shows systematic signs of…
Lawmakers Introduce Facial Recognition Bill for Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets With Kalshi’s Support
The bipartisan proposal, backed by Kalshi, comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny over underage trading and renewed calls for federal gambling standards. Rep.
CFTC Takes Big Swing in Pushing Back on Michigan Kalshi Order
CFTC Takes Big Swing in Pushing Back on Michigan Kalshi Order Bloomberg Law News
Stanford Study Exposes Manipulation in Polymarket’s Bitcoin Prediction Contracts
Stanford Study Exposes Manipulation in Polymarket’s Bitcoin Prediction Contracts parameter.io
Stanford Study Reveals Settlement Manipulation in 5-Minute Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Stanford Study Reveals Settlement Manipulation in 5-Minute Bitcoin Prediction Markets KuCoin
Study flags flaws in Polymarket's 5-minute bitcoin bets, calling structure unfavorable to individuals
Study flags flaws in Polymarket's 5-minute bitcoin bets, calling structure unfavorable to individuals 디지털투데이
Maricopa County bans employees from profiting on prediction markets
Maricopa County bans employees from profiting on prediction markets AZ Family
Polymarket 5-Minute Bitcoin Market Enable BTC Price Manipulation
Polymarket 5-Minute Bitcoin Market Enable BTC Price Manipulation Bitcoin Foundation
Researchers Uncover The Trick Behind Bitcoin Prediction Market Profits
Researchers Uncover The Trick Behind Bitcoin Prediction Market Profits Cointribune
Stanford Study Reveals How Bitcoin Prediction Markets on Polymarket Face Manipulation Risk
Stanford Study Reveals How Bitcoin Prediction Markets on Polymarket Face Manipulation Risk Blockonomi
CFTC Instructs Kalshi to Fulfill Open Trades Despite Michigan Court Order
CFTC Instructs Kalshi to Fulfill Open Trades Despite Michigan Court Order Covers.com
Study Finds Signs of Manipulation in Bitcoin Bets on Polymarket
Study Finds Signs of Manipulation in Bitcoin Bets on Polymarket FinanceFeeds
CFTC Blocks Kalshi From Cancelling Michigan Sports Trades Ordered Voided
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has stopped Kalshi from liquidating sports event contracts that a Michigan court ordered cancelled and refunded. The intervention leaves Michigan’s restriction on new sports trades intact while opening a direct federal-state confrontation over who controls transactions already executed on a…
Kalshi Seeks CFTC Approval for Airport Cancellation Bets
Kalshi Seeks CFTC Approval for Airport Cancellation Bets Briefs Finance
Prediction Markets Let Californians Bet on Life’s Big Moments — But at What Cost?
Prediction Markets Let Californians Bet on Life’s Big Moments — But at What Cost? hsjchronicle.com
Bitcoin Prediction Markets Expose Spot Price Manipulation Risks
Bitcoin Prediction Markets Expose Spot Price Manipulation Risks The Cryptonomist
Kalshi to Offer Contracts Predicting Flight Cancellations
Kalshi to Offer Contracts Predicting Flight Cancellations WSJ
Buffett and Kalshi: Two views of America's gambling boom
Buffett and Kalshi: Two views of America's gambling boom Axios
Kalshi looks to expand contracts related to air travel delays
Kalshi looks to expand contracts related to air travel delays NBC News
Kalshi Wants You to Make Money Off of Canceled Flights: Inside the Prediction Market's Wild New 'Sky Trading' Plan
Kalshi Wants You to Make Money Off of Canceled Flights: Inside the Prediction Market's Wild New 'Sky Trading' Plan inc.com
OpenAI Strikes Bold Deal With Kalshi to Mix Together the Most Hated Technologies in Existence: AI and Prediction Markets
OpenAI Strikes Bold Deal With Kalshi to Mix Together the Most Hated Technologies in Existence: AI and Prediction Markets Futurism
Can AI Fix Bad Rules?
Andy Hall and Elliot developed an AI system that grades prediction market resolution rules for clarity using a 10-point rubric, finding it can predict which contracts will be disputed at rates well above chance. Tested on thousands of contracts from Polymarket and Kalshi, the approach demonstrates how AI could help write clearer…

Are Prediction Markets Doomed to Fail?
Contrary Research delivers a comprehensive deep dive into the prediction market industry, tracing its history from the Iowa Electronic Markets through Kalshi and Polymarket's current dominance to the latest sportsbook entrants. The piece analyzes business models, regulatory classification debates, and the critical skew in win…

Yankees Trending Up in World Series Prediction Markets
Polymarket is trending towards the New York Yankees on its latest World Series price shift.
Kalshi traders see gas prices crossing $4 by end of July
Kalshi traders see gas prices crossing $4 by end of July CNBC
LeBron James Next Team Prediction Market Movement: Warriors Spike
LeBron James market on Kalshi shifts towards the Golden State Warriors following recent rumors.
Kalshi Seeks to Let Traders Bet on Flight Cancellation Rates
Your flight? Canceled.
Federal regulators order Kalshi to honor pending trades in Michigan; attorney general responds
Federal regulators order Kalshi to honor pending trades in Michigan; attorney general responds Spectrum News NY1
Stanford Study Finds 5-Minute Bitcoin Prediction Markets Susceptible To Manipulation
Stanford Study Finds 5-Minute Bitcoin Prediction Markets Susceptible To Manipulation Menafn
Federal agency intervenes in Michigan’s legal fight over Kalshi sports contracts
Federal agency intervenes in Michigan’s legal fight over Kalshi sports contracts Michigan Advance
Gottheimer introduces bill requiring facial ID for prediction markets, online sportsbooks
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) introduced a bill Wednesday that would require prediction markets and online sportsbook to use facial recognition to verify users' ages to avoid minors from placing bets or trading on platforms.
Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation
Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation TradingView
Kalshi Hires Squire Patton Boggs on Prediction Markets
Kalshi Hires Squire Patton Boggs on Prediction Markets Legis1
Kalshi Seeks to Let Traders Hedge on Flight Cancellation Rates
Kalshi Seeks to Let Traders Hedge on Flight Cancellation Rates Bloomberg Law News
Tribe and State Interests Align In The Fight Against Prediction Markets, Says UNLV Law Professor Danielle Finn
Tribe and State Interests Align In The Fight Against Prediction Markets, Says UNLV Law Professor Danielle Finn Casino.com
CFTC Tells Kalshi to Remain in Michigan Despite Court Order
CFTC Tells Kalshi to Remain in Michigan Despite Court Order sbcamericas.com
Stanford Study Says Polymarket Crypto Bets Are Being Manipulated
Stanford Study Says Polymarket Crypto Bets Are Being Manipulated Bloomberg Law News
Opinion | What Californians could lose betting on life through prediction markets
Opinion | What Californians could lose betting on life through prediction markets CalMatters
Traders Took $8.2 Million From Polymarket’s Five-Minute Bitcoin Bets, Study Found
Traders Took $8.2 Million From Polymarket’s Five-Minute Bitcoin Bets, Study Found Bitcoin Magazine
Polymarket Bitcoin Markets Show Manipulation Evidence, Stanford Research Reveals
Polymarket Bitcoin Markets Show Manipulation Evidence, Stanford Research Reveals Blockonomi
Rory McIlroy Trending Down in Open Championship Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are shifting Rory McIlroy in the wrong direction at the Open Championship.
Dina Titus critiques Kalshi for exploiting regulatory loophole with sports event contracts
Dina Titus critiques Kalshi for exploiting regulatory loophole with sports event contracts Crypto Briefing
Prediction Markets Are Exposing A Structural Design Problem
Prediction Markets Are Exposing A Structural Design Problem thewealthadvisor.com
UFC Collaborates with Polymarket and Meta to Support Several Veteran-Focused Non-profit Organizations as Part of UFC Freedom 250 Fight Week
UFC Collaborates with Polymarket and Meta to Support Several Veteran-Focused Non-profit Organizations as Part of UFC Freedom 250 Fight Week UFC.com
Opinion - The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker
Opinion - The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker Yahoo
"Compute Is the New Oil": Kalshi Just Launched a Way to Bet on the Future Price of AI Computing Power
"Compute Is the New Oil": Kalshi Just Launched a Way to Bet on the Future Price of AI Computing Power 24/7 Wall St.
Why Robinhood Could See a Prediction Markets Earnings Boost
Closing the loophole: Prediction markets disguised as financial derivatives
Congresswoman Dina Titus argues that prediction market platforms like Kalshi exploit a regulatory loophole by labeling sports bets as financial derivatives to avoid state-level consumer protections and oversight.
The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker
The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker The Hill
One-Man CFTC Speeds Up Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, Crypto
One-Man CFTC Speeds Up Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, Crypto news.bloombergtax.com
Accountability Groups to Congress: Ban Insider Trading on Prediction Markets
Accountability Groups to Congress: Ban Insider Trading on Prediction Markets Project On Government Oversight
Illinois Congressman Probes Polymarket’s Ties to Election-Denial Influencers
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is seeking answers from Polymarket over allegations that paid influencers promoted election misinformation while advertising prediction markets.
CPI Falls in June: Trade on Prediction Markets for Fed Decision in July 2026
CPI Falls in June: Trade on Prediction Markets for Fed Decision in July 2026 Federal News Network
Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips. Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices. Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery. Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities. The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market. Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate. The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.
Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200.
Coinsilium backs Predictive Labs' Nijinn to cut through prediction market noise
Coinsilium backs Predictive Labs' Nijinn to cut through prediction market noise Proactive Investors
Kalshi’s Core Business May Already Be in Serious Trouble
Kalshi’s Core Business May Already Be in Serious Trouble New York Magazine
Millions of dollars were wagered on 'Love Island.' Why Kalshi wants more trades in reality TV
Millions of dollars were wagered on 'Love Island.' Why Kalshi wants more trades in reality TV Los Angeles Times
Kalshi Offers Compute Forward Curves
Kalshi Offers Compute Forward Curves Markets Media
CFTC Orders Kalshi Not to Comply With Michigan Court’s Trade-Cancellation Order
CFTC Orders Kalshi Not to Comply With Michigan Court’s Trade-Cancellation Order bloomingbit
Czech Republic moves to block Polymarket over unlicensed gambling
The Czech Republic moved to block Polymarket, joining other European jurisdictions targeting prediction markets over unlicensed gambling.
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Honor Michigan Trades, Escalating Fight With States Over Prediction Markets
The CFTC has ordered Kalshi to honor certain Michigan trades despite a state court directive to cancel and refund them. The move opens a new front in the federal regulator’s fight with states over prediction markets.
New Study Says Prediction Markets Shouldn't Ban Insider Trading
New Study Says Prediction Markets Shouldn't Ban Insider Trading CryptoRank
CFTC opposes court order against Kalshi
CFTC opposes court order against Kalshi Investment Executive
Iranian Regime to Collapse in 2026? Crypto Prediction Market Betting on This Outcome Even as Trump Threat
Iranian Regime to Collapse in 2026? Crypto Prediction Market Betting on This Outcome Even as Trump Threat Benzinga
Polymarket is America, America is Polymarket
Polymarket is America, America is Polymarket Prospect Magazine
Profiting $10.32 Million — A Polymarket Whale's World Cup Prediction Strategy
Profiting $10.32 Million — A Polymarket Whale's World Cup Prediction Strategy Moomoo
US derivatives regulator blocks Kalshi from canceling Michigan trades despite court order
US derivatives regulator blocks Kalshi from canceling Michigan trades despite court order Reuters
Compute has a Market-Implied Forward Curve Now
Compute has a Market-Implied Forward Curve Now Kalshi News
World Cup Betting Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume To $50 Billion
World Cup Betting Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume To $50 Billion Yahoo Finance
CFTC blocks Kalshi from canceling Michigan trades despite court order
CFTC blocks Kalshi from canceling Michigan trades despite court order Crypto Briefing
Lawless CFTC Directs Kalshi to Defy Court Order
Lawless CFTC Directs Kalshi to Defy Court Order Better Markets
Kalshi Wants to Predict the Future of Compute Availability
Kalshi Wants to Predict the Future of Compute Availability Gizmodo
CFTC says states cannot force Kalshi to cancel executed trades
CFTC says states cannot force Kalshi to cancel executed trades AMBCrypto
Outcome.xyz pushes for permissionless prediction markets on Hyperliquid
Outcome.xyz pushes for permissionless prediction markets on Hyperliquid Crypto Briefing
Trump's FIFA intervention created 'outside noise' before US World Cup exit, Balogun says, as crypto prediction markets cashed in
Trump's FIFA intervention created 'outside noise' before US World Cup exit, Balogun says, as crypto prediction markets cashed in Crypto Briefing
Michigan ban on Kalshi sports contracts extended, with geofencing to begin Aug. 12
Michigan ban on Kalshi sports contracts extended, with geofencing to begin Aug. 12 CDC Gaming
Kalshi's CEO wants to replicate the "aura" of Stripe's Collison brothers
Kalshi's CEO wants to replicate the "aura" of Stripe's Collison brothers eFinancialCareers
ChatGPT is now citing Kalshi data.
ChatGPT is now citing Kalshi data. The Verge
Kalshi Announces Compute Forward Curves, Becoming the Exchange for the AI Economy
Kalshi Announces Compute Forward Curves, Becoming the Exchange for the AI Economy Kalshi News
Prices, Probabilities, and Parlays: Systematic Bias in Sports Prediction Markets
Analyzes 23 million moneyline trades on Kalshi across major sport leagues and finds two systematic ways market prices fail as probabilities. Calibration is not static: parameters sit near perfect-calibration values mid-contract but depart sharply as expiry approaches, with the final ten minutes producing a step-like Prelec curve…
North Carolina becomes first state to tax prediction markets with new state budget
North Carolina becomes first state to tax prediction markets with new state budget Port City Daily
Czechia Blocks Polymarket as Unlicensed Gambling, Ordering a 15-Day ISP Shutdown
The Czech Republic has become the latest European country to block Polymarket as unlicensed gambling, adding the crypto-based prediction market to its official blocklist and giving internet providers 15 days to cut access. Another European door closes as Gibraltar’s opens The Czech Finance Ministry added Polymarket to its List of…
CFTC Defies Michigan Court Order, Orders Kalshi to Complete Trades
CFTC Defies Michigan Court Order, Orders Kalshi to Complete Trades Law.com
U.S. CFTC moves to stop Kalshi from canceling trades as ordered by Michigan court
Krishnamoorthi Presses Polymarket Over Its Paid Influencer Deals with Election Deniers
Krishnamoorthi Presses Polymarket Over Its Paid Influencer Deals with Election Deniers House.gov
CFTC Says Kalshi Can Resume Wagers Blocked by Michigan Judge
CFTC Says Kalshi Can Resume Wagers Blocked by Michigan Judge Bloomberg Law News
Prediction Markets Hit Record Volume, But Still Face Liquidity Gap
Prediction Markets Hit Record Volume, But Still Face Liquidity Gap Gaming Today
MLB All-Star Game Prediction Apps: Claim Promos from Kalshi, Poylmarket, More
Use the leading MLB All-Star Game prediction apps and score $145 in bonuses for the AL vs. NL on Tuesday night.
CFTC orders Kalshi to honor Michigan trades, escalating clash with state regulators
Jurisdiction over prediction market platforms is an ongoing dispute between the CFTC and multiple state regulators.
After SpaceX, ETF XOVR taps into prediction market demand with $30 million Kalshi investment
After SpaceX, ETF XOVR taps into prediction market demand with $30 million Kalshi investment InvestmentNews
Kalshi Market Has Clear Timeline for LeBron's Next Team Announcement
Kalshi has an event contract out for when LeBron James will make his decision. James is rumored to be making his decision this week at Fanatics Fest.
XOVR pours $30m into prediction market firm Kalshi
XOVR pours $30m into prediction market firm Kalshi FinTech Global
Regulation of Trading in Prediction Markets
Regulation of Trading in Prediction Markets Cornerstone Research
World Cup Push Brings Polymarket to Blockchain.com
World Cup Push Brings Polymarket to Blockchain.com Bitcoin Foundation
Prediction markets saw over $50 billion in volume as World Cup kicked off, crushing traditional sportsbooks
Prediction markets saw over $50 billion in volume as World Cup kicked off, crushing traditional sportsbooks CoinDesk
Kalshi Ramps Up Effort to Build Markets for AI Computing Power
Kalshi Inc. has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power, joining the ranks of exchange and index operators attempting to build markets around the commodity powering artificial intelligence.
Examining Prediction Markets: Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Markets
Examining Prediction Markets: Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Markets House Committee on Agriculture (.gov)
Michigan Extends Kalshi Sports Contract Ban, Gives Company Until Aug. 12 to Geofence State
A Michigan judge gave Kalshi 30 days to implement a geofencing technology before imposing $500,000 daily fines. A Michigan judge has extended a temporary restraining order requiring Kalshi to stop offering sports-event contracts in the state and has given the prediction market until Aug.
XOVR Invests $30 Million In Kalshi To Expand Private Market Strategy
XOVR Invests $30 Million In Kalshi To Expand Private Market Strategy Pulse 2.0
Blockchain.com Taps Polymarket To Embed Prediction Markets In App
Blockchain.com Taps Polymarket To Embed Prediction Markets In App PR Newswire
Prediction markets just crushed traditional sportsbooks in a massive $50 billion World Cup breakout
Perp Talk: Sports Betting With Borrowed Funds, Infinite Timelines
Prediction market operators are brainstorming their next hit product as competition intensifies. Some experts believe this will lead them to launch sports-themed perpetual futures contracts, a betting structure popularized by cryptocurrency backers.
Price Distortion in LA Mayor’s Race Corrects Within Seconds: A Case Study
Price Distortion in LA Mayor’s Race Corrects Within Seconds: A Case Study Kalshi News
Polymarket Partners With Crypto Firm During World Cup Semifinals
Crypto brokerage Blockchain.com Group Holdings Inc. has partnered with Polymarket to offer prediction markets to its users in time for the World Cup semifinals.
Kalshi Pro Launches as Robinhood Plans to Go Its Own Way
Kalshi Pro Launches as Robinhood Plans to Go Its Own Way Yahoo Finance
Kalshi, Polymarket: Gambling or Financial Products Under US Law?
Kalshi, Polymarket: Gambling or Financial Products Under US Law? Bloomberg Law News
Gibraltar Launches the World’s First Dedicated Prediction-Market Regulatory Regime
Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction anywhere to enact a purpose-built regulatory framework for prediction markets, carving the fast-growing sector out of its general gambling law. The move sets the British Overseas Territory sharply apart from mainland Europe, where regulators are moving to restrict these platforms.
Kalshi traders back LeBron return to Cleveland
Kalshi traders back LeBron return to Cleveland Axios
Kalshi is launching a pro trading terminal for its most active prediction market traders
Kalshi is launching a pro trading terminal for its most active prediction market traders qz.com
Kalshi Takes Tribal Sovereignty Fight to Ninth Circuit Over Sports Markets
Three California tribes have asked the Ninth Circuit to revive their bid to block Kalshi’s sports event contracts on tribal lands. The appeal opens a new front in the prediction market’s regulatory fight: whether its federal exchange status can shield it from tribal governments invoking federal Indian gaming law.
Are sports prediction markets legal? Status of Kalshi and Polymarket in all 50 states
Are sports prediction markets legal? Status of Kalshi and Polymarket in all 50 states CBS Sports
Kalshi Pro Goes Live for Traders Managing Several Markets at Once
Kalshi Pro Goes Live for Traders Managing Several Markets at Once Bitcoin Foundation
‘Love Island’ fans are coupling up with prediction markets
‘Love Island’ fans are coupling up with prediction markets NBC News
Gibraltar Backs Prediction Markets in Push to Remain Top iGaming Jurisdiction
Gibraltar Backs Prediction Markets in Push to Remain Top iGaming Jurisdiction Casino.org
Michael Burry Blasts Prediction Markets As ‘Gambling Platforms’ Operating Through ‘Regulatory Loophole.’
Michael Burry Blasts Prediction Markets As ‘Gambling Platforms’ Operating Through ‘Regulatory Loophole.’ Tekedia
$558,924 in Esports Bets Reveal the Esports World Cup’s Biggest Week 2 Favorites
The first full week of the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) crowned three champions in Paris, while prediction market traders spread more than $558,000 in reported volume across the Polymarket and Kalshi events. Three Champions Set the Early Pace 100 Thieves defeated NRG 3-1 in the Valorant grand final, with Cryocells earning MVP honors;…
Goldman leads wave of prediction market bans at financial firms
Goldman leads wave of prediction market bans at financial firms InvestmentNews
Love Island Faces Its Biggest Bombshell Yet: Prediction Markets
Love Island Faces Its Biggest Bombshell Yet: Prediction Markets Vanity Fair
Kalshi Unveils 'Kalshi Pro' Desktop Terminal to Bridge Retail Prediction Markets and Institutional Trading
Kalshi Unveils 'Kalshi Pro' Desktop Terminal to Bridge Retail Prediction Markets and Institutional Trading FF News
'Gambling no matter what anyone calls it': 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry bashes prediction markets
'Gambling no matter what anyone calls it': 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry bashes prediction markets Business Insider
Gondor v1 to let users borrow against their entire Polymarket portfolio
Expected to launch in September, v1 will enable users to margin their entire Polymarket portfolios to place additional leveraged bets.
North Carolina Law Officially Makes Prediction Markets Legal in the State
North Carolina Law Officially Makes Prediction Markets Legal in the State PYMNTS.com
World Cup Prediction Markets Hit $5.81 Billion Across 52 Events Amid Buying Frenzy
Across 52 distinct markets monitored by Bitcoin.com News, over $5.81 billion floods World Cup prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, shifting liquidity for traders. Prediction markets have reached unprecedented liquidity milestones during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, capturing billions of dollars in volume as digital asset traders…
Prediction Market Approval Offers Shield for North Carolina Tax
Prediction Market Approval Offers Shield for North Carolina Tax Bloomberg Law News
Kalshi Launches Advanced Trading Terminal
Kalshi Launches Advanced Trading Terminal Kalshi News
XOVR Expands Private Market Strategy with $30 Million Investment in Kalshi
XOVR Expands Private Market Strategy with $30 Million Investment in Kalshi PR Newswire
Why prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often fail the average investor
Why prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often fail the average investor MarketWatch
How Matchbook-Powered Prediction Markets Could Shake Up the Industry
Matchbook has partnered with ADI PredictStreet to bring regulated prediction markets to major jurisdictions – it could be a game-changer. We spoke exclusively to company insiders.
Gibraltar Hopes New Prediction Market Rules Set European Standard
Rules governing prediction markets in Gibraltar distinguish the exchanges from gambling and do not allow self-certification. Gibraltar took its next step toward becoming a validating force in Europe’s fledgling licensed prediction market industry with the release of its first set of regulations that create a new category for the…
LA therapists are seeing more young patients with gambling problems. They blame Kalshi
LA therapists are seeing more young patients with gambling problems. They blame Kalshi LAist
Kalshi launches 'Pro' product for users trading multiple markets at same time, perpetual futures
The platform is designed to alleviate problems the company's most active traders have run into, according to a memo provided to CNBC.
Kalshi Is Crushing Everyone In App Downloads - Event Horizon
Kalshi Is Crushing Everyone In App Downloads Event Horizon | Dustin Gouker
Ninth Circuit Presses Kalshi on Sports Betting Comparisons in Tribal Appeal
Judges repeatedly challenged Kalshi’s attempt to distinguish its sports-event contracts from conventional wagers as California tribes seek to revive their bid for an injunction. A Ninth Circuit panel repeatedly compared Kalshi’s sports-event contracts to traditional sports wagers on Friday, pressing the prediction market operator to…
Alberta Launch, Prediction Markets and IRS Hearing: Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
Alberta’s iGaming debut, escalating prediction market disputes and a key IRS hearing set the stage for another consequential week for the gambling industry. This week in the gambling industry is highlighted by Alberta opening its regulated online market on July 13, an IRS hearing on gambling loss deductions and Maine’s sweepstakes casino…
In defence of . . . prediction markets?
Turning everything into a wager can get ugly, but has its upsides
Prediction market users spend nearly $200 million on midterm election bets: Report
Prediction market users have wagered in excess of $197 million on midterm election results, according to NBC News. The outlet analyzed 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket for its report, published on Friday.
World Cup Bets on Prediction Markets Test Tax Edge Over Gambling
World Cup Bets on Prediction Markets Test Tax Edge Over Gambling Bloomberg Law News
A Hedge Is Not a Product
Distinguishes between two meanings of 'hedge' — trader/market-making (position offset) and corporate finance (exposure matching) — and argues that prediction markets' contract-first approach creates persistent basis risk for would-be corporate hedgers. Warns that mis-selling mismatched binaries as corporate hedges would hand ammunition…
Polymarket out to reform image for its potential U.S. customers - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Polymarket out to reform image for its potential U.S. customers Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
World Cup Bets on Prediction Markets May Get Tax Edge Over Gambling
Americans using prediction markets to bet on the World Cup may face a lighter tax burden than peers wagering through sportsbooks thanks to tax breaks aimed at investments.
Q+A: James Siva on the growing threat prediction markets pose to tribal gaming
Q+A: James Siva on the growing threat prediction markets pose to tribal gaming Tribal Business News
Polymarket to integrate TWAP for crypto markets amid criticism of slow improvements
Polymarket to integrate TWAP for crypto markets amid criticism of slow improvements Crypto Briefing
Kalshi is sparring with a think tank over claims users lose millions betting against pro traders on the platform
Kalshi is sparring with a think tank over claims users lose millions betting against pro traders on the platform Business Insider
Conor McGregor Fight Prediction Market Apps: Use Trading Bonuses for UFC 329
Conor McGregor Fight Prediction Market Apps: Use Trading Bonuses for UFC 329 Yahoo Sports
Sports betting is illegal in Texas. What about prediction markets like Kalshi? - Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Sports betting is illegal in Texas. What about prediction markets like Kalshi?
Crypto News Today: North Carolina Sets First State Rules for CFTC Prediction Markets
Crypto News Today: North Carolina Sets First State Rules for CFTC Prediction Markets Analytics Insight
Darryn Peterson NBA Rookie of the Year Prediction Market Climbing, AJ Dybantsa Falling
Darryn Peterson jumped AJ Dybantsa as the favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year.
Prediction Market Restrictions Expand as Goldman Sachs Limits Employee Trades Over Insider Trading Risks
Prediction Market Restrictions Expand as Goldman Sachs Limits Employee Trades Over Insider Trading Risks The Coin Republic
Arch Manning Sizeable Favorite to be No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft on Kalshi
Kalshi leans on Arch Manning to be selected first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Dean Heller defects from Nevada gaming interests to champion prediction markets
Dean Heller defects from Nevada gaming interests to champion prediction markets Las Vegas Sun
Michael Burry sees something in DraftKings the market is missing
Michael Burry isn’t simply betting on casino stocks. The “Big Short” investor’s fresh stakes in DraftKings (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) raise a wider concern for the sports-betting industry: Are prediction markets too huge for authorities to ignore?
Kalshi Fights 'Extraordinary' Bid To Halt Wash. Operations
Kalshi Fights 'Extraordinary' Bid To Halt Wash. Operations Law360
Polymarket Wants to Join Rival Kalshi in Offering Margin Trading
Polymarket Wants to Join Rival Kalshi in Offering Margin Trading Casino.org
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Expands Perpetuals as World Cup Trading Hits New Highs
Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Expands Perpetuals as World Cup Trading Hits New Highs TradingView
SBC Details Latest Shake Ups in US Prediction Market Space
SBC Details Latest Shake Ups in US Prediction Market Space sbcamericas.com
Robinhood-Backed Prediction Market Bets Surge on World Cup Mania
Robinhood-Backed Prediction Market Bets Surge on World Cup Mania Bloomberg.com
'Love Island' fans are being bombarded by Kalshi betting ads on TikTok
'Love Island' fans are being bombarded by Kalshi betting ads on TikTok Business Insider
Polymarket Applies for Margin Trading License While Under Active CFTC Investigation
Polymarket Applies for Margin Trading License While Under Active CFTC Investigation Tech Times
Lazio risk €19m Polymarket sponsorship deal after platform banned
Lazio risk €19m Polymarket sponsorship deal after platform banned Yahoo Sports
Empire State Weekly: Prediction market regulations
Empire State Weekly: Prediction market regulations NEWS10 ABC
Kalshi, Tribes Quarrel Over State Gambling Agreements on Appeal
Kalshi, Tribes Quarrel Over State Gambling Agreements on Appeal Bloomberg Law News
Prediction Markets Are Exploding—but the Corporate Crackdown Has Already Begun
Prediction Markets Are Exploding—but the Corporate Crackdown Has Already Begun inc.com
Kalshi Looks Beyond Prediction Markets With Gold, FX Perps
Kalshi Looks Beyond Prediction Markets With Gold, FX Perps Bitcoin Foundation
NC budget raises sports-betting tax, adds prediction markets
NC budget raises sports-betting tax, adds prediction markets Carolina Journal
Spain vs. Belgium predictions: Polymarket prices, props and best bet for World Cup quarterfinal
Spain vs. Belgium predictions: Polymarket prices, props and best bet for World Cup quarterfinal Syracuse.com
Wall Street giants bar staff from finance and politics prediction markets, source says
Wall Street giants bar staff from finance and politics prediction markets, source says WTVB
Yordan Álvarez Extends Lead in AL MVP Race on Kalshi
Yordan Alvarez is pulling away in the AL MVP race on Kalshi.
Prediction market users have traded nearly $200 million on midterm elections so far
Prediction market users have traded nearly $200 million on midterm elections so far NBC News
Goldman Sachs bans employees from some prediction market contracts
Goldman Sachs is placing restrictions on employee trading on some prediction markets, a source familiar confirmed to The Hill on Friday. Staff at the investment banking giant are permitted to place wagers related to sports and entertainment but are barred from trading on markets tied to specific companies, financial markets or election…
Opinion | As prediction markets invade, Alabama loses
Opinion | As prediction markets invade, Alabama loses Alabama Political Reporter
Polymarket takes next step in U.S. comeback with margin trading plan
Polymarket takes next step in U.S. comeback with margin trading plan CoinDesk
New Blow for Lazio as Polymarket Get Blacklisted in Italy
Lazio have been dealt an unforeseen blow, as their main sponsor, Polymarket, is facing a major legal storm in Italy.The BackgroundAfter almost three years without a sponsor on the front of their jerse...
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley ban employees from making certain bets on prediction markets: report
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley ban employees from making certain bets on prediction markets: report New York Post
Prediction Market Bets Surge on World Cup Mania
Rabid interest in the World Cup has helped to drive more than $3 billion of wagers on a prediction market backed by Robinhood Markets Inc. and Susquehanna International Group, which launched just a few months ago.
Wall Street Banks Add Prediction Market Trading Rules
Wall Street Banks Add Prediction Market Trading Rules World Casino News
Wall St. Sets Limits on Prediction Market Trading
Goldman Sachs is the latest firm to restrict how employees use the popular betting platforms.
North Carolina Bill Recognizes CFTC's ‘Federal Regulatory Authority’ Over Prediction Markets
North Carolina Bill Recognizes CFTC's ‘Federal Regulatory Authority’ Over Prediction Markets Decrypt
Polymarket Seeks Margin Trading License for US Event Bets
Polymarket Seeks Margin Trading License for US Event Bets Bitcoin Foundation
Why 97% of prediction market traders lose
Why 97% of prediction market traders lose Money.ca
Polymarket seeks approval to bring margin trading to U.S. customers
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: Kalshi’s New York Loss, New Taxes and Record Growth
Kalshi’s loss in New York, new taxes, record trading volumes and fresh policy initiatives marked another eventful week for prediction markets. A federal court’s rejection of Kalshi’s preemption arguments in New York became the leading prediction market story of the week.
North Carolina passes bill recognizing CFTC preemption over prediction markets
North Carolina's new law taxes prediction market platforms at 6% of their net trading fee revenue that is attributable to North Carolina residents.
Polymarket files applications to offer regulated margin trading in US
Polymarket's rival platform, Kalshi, already received US regulatory approval to provide margin trading back in March.
Betting on the Future: Prediction markets gain attention in Florida
Betting on the Future: Prediction markets gain attention in Florida cw34.com
Soldier Accused of Polymarket Trades on Maduro Capture Seeks Dismissal of CFTC Case
Soldier Accused of Polymarket Trades on Maduro Capture Seeks Dismissal of CFTC Case Casino.org
Wall Street banks rule on staff betting on prediction markets, sources say
Wall Street banks rule on staff betting on prediction markets, sources say Reuters
Prediction markets are unreliable truth machines: lawsuit
Prediction markets are unreliable truth machines: lawsuit American Banker
North Carolina Sides With Federal Preemption, Taxing Prediction Markets 6% While Sportsbooks Pay 23%
North Carolina has broken with the wave of states fighting prediction markets in court, using its new budget to tax platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket at 6% while explicitly declining to regulate them – a posture that effectively recognizes federal authority over the sector even as other states sue to assert their own. Sportsbooks in…
Hobbs bars Arizona state employees from using government info to bet on prediction markets
Hobbs bars Arizona state employees from using government info to bet on prediction markets Arizona Mirror
Dutch gambling regulator upholds Polymarket sanction
Dutch gambling regulator upholds Polymarket sanction Focus Gaming News
Former Nevada Sen. Dean Heller on the difference between prediction markets and gambling
Former Nevada Sen. Dean Heller on the difference between prediction markets and gambling CNBC
Polymarket Seeks License to Offer Margin Trading Legally in US
Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the US, a move that would let users bet on events with less capital upfront and help the prediction market platform attract more sophisticated traders.
Goldman Sachs limits prediction market betting for employees
Nascent platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket pose challenges to compliance policies at heavily regulated banks
Prediction Markets & Insider Trading: What Every Compliance Program Needs to Know Now
Prediction Markets & Insider Trading: What Every Compliance Program Needs to Know Now Davis Wright Tremaine
Travis Kelce Retirement Prediction Market Plummet Following Taylor Swift Marriage
Travis Kelce retirement markets on Kalshi plummet after Taylor Swift marriage.
Prediction markets spark insider trading concerns. Here's how Goldman and other companies are responding
CNBC reached out to 50 companies about what are their trading policies for employees on prediction markets. A handful had an answer.
Goldman Bans Staff Prediction Markets Bets on Finance, Politics
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has banned employees from trading on prediction markets except for sports and entertainment bets, in one of the most pointed efforts by a Wall Street firm grappling with the new regulatory issues raised by the boom in betting on events.
World Cup Prediction Market Apps: Get Best Offers for France-Morocco
Use the best France-Morocco prediction market apps on Thursday and claim over $150 in bonuses for World Cup trades.
Prediction market insider trading targeted by Arizona governor
Prediction market insider trading targeted by Arizona governor KTAR News 92.3 FM
People in the UK: have you used prediction markets to bet on the World Cup or other events?
People in the UK: have you used prediction markets to bet on the World Cup or other events? The Guardian
Get $60 from Polymarket & Kalshi with Code SBWIRE to Trade on McGregor vs Holloway UFC 329
Get $60 from Polymarket & Kalshi with Code SBWIRE to Trade on McGregor vs Holloway UFC 329 MMA Junkie
Kalshi’s Weather Delay Bets Raise Regulatory Questions
Sports fans can now risk their money on whether the rain, rain will go away. Kalshi has opened a new frontier for prediction markets by introducing bets on whether individual sporting events will have weather delays.
In Prediction Markets, Speed Is the Edge, and Banana Predict Was Built for It
In Prediction Markets, Speed Is the Edge, and Banana Predict Was Built for It Programming Insider
Kalshi talks with regulators about expanding perpetual futures offerings - report (KALSHI:Private)
Kalshi talks with regulators about expanding perpetual futures offerings - report (KALSHI:Private) Seeking Alpha
The future of prediction markets
The future of prediction markets Global News
Government Insiders Must Be Prevented From Profiting on Prediction Markets at the Expense of National Security
Government Insiders Must Be Prevented From Profiting on Prediction Markets at the Expense of National Security Center for American Progress
Coinbase restores prediction markets trading after technical issue
Coinbase restores prediction markets trading after technical issue Reuters
Guest Post: The Polymarket Bet Quantum Could Break
Guest Post: The Polymarket Bet Quantum Could Break The Quantum Insider
What Prediction Markets Say About 3 of America’s Most At-Risk Brands
What Prediction Markets Say About 3 of America’s Most At-Risk Brands 24/7 Wall St.
Google Bans Prediction Market Transactions Amid Backlash
Google Bans Prediction Market Transactions Amid Backlash Yahoo Finance
EXCLUSIVE: Kalshi in talks with regulators to expand never-expiring derivatives to new areas
EXCLUSIVE: Kalshi in talks with regulators to expand never-expiring derivatives to new areas Reuters
Former CFTC Chair Nominee Brian Quintenz Joins Coalition for Prediction Markets
The former CFTC commissioner and former nominee to lead the agency will serve as a senior adviser to the industry group backed by Kalshi, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Robinhood. Brian Quintenz, the former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner whose nomination to chair the agency was withdrawn last year, has joined the…
Prediction Markets’ Tribal Clash Features Dueling Federal Laws
Prediction Markets’ Tribal Clash Features Dueling Federal Laws Bloomberg Law News
Graham Platner suspends campaign as Kalshi traders predict what's next for Maine Democrats
Graham Platner suspends campaign as Kalshi traders predict what's next for Maine Democrats Kalshi News
North Carolina Provides Prediction Market Tax, Increases Sports Wagering Tax
North Carolina Provides Prediction Market Tax, Increases Sports Wagering Tax Bloomberg Law News
The Hottest Prediction Market in Crypto Just Left Solana, But Why?
The Hottest Prediction Market in Crypto Just Left Solana, But Why? Yahoo Finance
CFTC Investigation of Polymarket Broadens Compliance Questions for Prediction Markets
CFTC Investigation of Polymarket Broadens Compliance Questions for Prediction Markets PYMNTS.com
North Carolina Governor Approves New Taxes on Sports Betting and Prediction Markets
North Carolina Governor Approves New Taxes on Sports Betting and Prediction Markets iGamingToday.com
Federal judge denies Kalshi's request to override N.Y.'s gambling laws
Federal judge denies Kalshi's request to override N.Y.'s gambling laws Spectrum News NY1
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Kalshi Prediction Market for Wimbledon Semifinal
An even line is set for the Wimbledon semifinals between Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova.
After a four-year U.S. ban, Polymarket mounts a major comeback campaign
After a four-year U.S. ban, Polymarket mounts a major comeback campaign CoinDesk
Meta builds own ‘Polymarket’ following failed Kalshi acquisition | Zero Shot Inference | Allen Au
Meta builds own ‘Polymarket’ following failed Kalshi acquisition | Zero Shot Inference | Allen Au The Standard (HK)
Court allows NY to enforce gambling laws on Kalshi
Court allows NY to enforce gambling laws on Kalshi WGRZ
Polymarket Launches U.S. Marketing Campaign
Polymarket Launches U.S. Marketing Campaign Yahoo Finance
Lawyers Say CFTC 'Has the Edge' Over States as Prediction Markets Fight Heads Toward Supreme Court Showdown
Lawyers Say CFTC 'Has the Edge' Over States as Prediction Markets Fight Heads Toward Supreme Court Showdown Bettors Insider
From Token Sniping to Prediction Markets: The Banana Predict Terminal Arrives
From Token Sniping to Prediction Markets: The Banana Predict Terminal Arrives FinancialContent
Institutional Adoption of Event Contracts Through Structured Products
Argues that institutional adoption of prediction market event contracts will follow the same path as synthetic risk transfer in credit markets — not through convincing risk managers to hold naked binaries, but through structured product wrappers that plug into existing credit/yield mandates. Traces the €800bn SRT/CLN market as precedent,…
Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Structural Approach
Develops and estimates a volatility model tailored to binary prediction markets, combining a Wright-Fisher deadline-resolution component (capturing how binary uncertainty resolves over time) and a Glosten-Milgrom order-flow component (capturing volatility from informed trading via spreads and volume). Using a large panel of Kalshi…
Federal judge denies Kalshi bid to block New York crackdown
Federal judge denies Kalshi bid to block New York crackdown Times Union
ESMA Says EU Retail Ban Covers Many Prediction Markets, With MiCA Awaiting the Tokenized Ones
Europe’s top securities regulator has clarified that many prediction-market event contracts already fall under the EU’s existing retail ban on binary options – meaning the restriction is live law, not a proposed rule – while contracts issued as blockchain tokens may instead be caught by the bloc’s crypto framework. The statement leaves…
Michael Burry bets on sportsbooks DraftKings and Flutter, sees prediction markets curbed by regulation
The investor believes regulators will eventually crack down on prediction markets after competition from the upstarts pressured the stocks of sportsbooks.
Kalshi appeals after federal judge sides with New York gambling regulators
Kalshi appeals after federal judge sides with New York gambling regulators WXXI News
Prediction Market Volume Jumped 75% to $44.8B in June as the World Cup Drove Record Trading
Combined trading volume across the two largest prediction-market platforms surged 75% in June to $44.8 billion, a record for the sector, as the FIFA World Cup pulled a wave of event-contract activity onto Kalshi and Polymarket. The month tested whether prediction-market infrastructure could sustain trading around a single global event –…
Prediction Market Whirlwind: A Recap
Prediction Market Whirlwind: A Recap Law.com
Judge rejects Kalshi bid to block New York gambling enforcement law
Judge rejects Kalshi bid to block New York gambling enforcement law Reuters
Kalshi loses bid to stop New York from regulating prediction markets
Kalshi loses bid to stop New York from regulating prediction markets Courthouse News
Love Island Is the New Bombshell for Prediction Markets
Love Island Is the New Bombshell for Prediction Markets Barron's
Polymarket bets on U.S. marketing blitz to win back trust after 4-year ban: Report
Gambling platform Kalshi denied preliminary injunction in New York
Gambling platform Kalshi denied preliminary injunction in New York Spectrum News
North Carolina budget raises sports betting tax to 23%, adds prediction market levy
North Carolina budget raises sports betting tax to 23%, adds prediction market levy Yogonet
Winners and Losers in in the World Cup Kalshi Prediction Market
Kalshi's World Cup prediction markets has clear winners and losers going into the quarterfinals.
North Carolina Governor Signs Budget Raising Sports Betting Tax, Adding Prediction Market Levy
North Carolina became one of the first states to tax prediction markets without creating a regulatory framework. The move could trigger another clash over federal and state authority.
Kalshi Denied Reprieve From New York Gaming Regulatory Crackdown
Kalshi Denied Reprieve From New York Gaming Regulatory Crackdown Bloomberg Law News
Macquarie: Prediction Markets Topped $50B in June as World Cup Drives Record Trading
A new Macquarie report estimates Kalshi accounted for roughly two-thirds of prediction market trading in June as the FIFA World Cup accelerated mainstream adoption. Prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in trading volume during June, according to a new report from Macquarie Equity Research.
Exclusive: ADI Predictstreet Source Reveals Trading Numbers, Strategic Gameplan
ADI Predictstreet is the new kid on the prediction market block — its trading volume may be small, yet in exclusive comments to Gambling Insider, insiders claim it has a winning strategy Gambling Insider can reveal that ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market of the FIFA World Cup 2026, has generated around 126,000 trades in […]
Kalshi Is Winning the Prediction Markets Trust Battle. This Is Its Secret
Kalshi Is Winning the Prediction Markets Trust Battle. This Is Its Secret inc.com
Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after latest setback, Kalshi traders predict
Speculators now see just a 44% chance that traffic flows return to normal by Dec. 1.
Susquehanna Puts Up $500 Million for ‘Hedging’ World Cup Games
Susquehanna International Group has lined up $500 million to work with institutions that want to use prediction markets to hedge the economic risks associated with various World Cup outcomes.
Ripple Lawsuit-Linked Judge Torres Hands Kalshi a Big Loss in NY Prediction Markets Case
Ripple Lawsuit-Linked Judge Torres Hands Kalshi a Big Loss in NY Prediction Markets Case CoinGape
NCPG Responds to Michigan's Withdrawal Over Kalshi Ties
NCPG Responds to Michigan's Withdrawal Over Kalshi Ties PlayMichigan
Polymarket is in a high-stakes race to win back trust as it recommits to the US market
Polymarket Switches on Instant Bitcoin Lightning Deposits, Cutting 60-Minute Waits to Under a Second
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has enabled instant bitcoin deposits over the Lightning Network, with new rails powered by the Spark protocol crediting funds in under one second. Opening up New Avenues Polymarket has switched on instant bitcoin deposits via the Lightning Network, a payments layer built on top of the…
North Carolina implements prediction markets tax and raises tax rate for sports betting
North Carolina implements prediction markets tax and raises tax rate for sports betting gamingintelligence.com
New York Judge Denies Kalshi Injunction, Finds State Gambling Laws Are Not Preempted
Judge says congressional history suggests lawmakers sought to prohibit the types of sports-event contracts offered by Kalshi. A federal judge has denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction against New York regulators, ruling that the company failed to demonstrate that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) preempts the state’s…
Prediction Markets Can Work Without Money on the Line
Prediction Markets Can Work Without Money on the Line Bloomberg.com
Federal judge denies Kalshi’s bid to block New York gambling law enforcement
The judge said New York gambling laws, as applied to Kalshi's sports-event contracts, are not preempted by the federal Commodity Exchange Act.
Judge Who Ruled XRP Not a Security in Ripple Case Hands Kalshi ‘A Major, Major Loss’ in New York
Judge Analisa Torres, best known for the SEC v. Ripple ruling, has denied Kalshi’s bid for a preliminary injunction against New York gaming regulators, finding the state’s gambling laws are not preempted by federal commodities law.
Kalshi bets shift to Quantum, semiconductor stakes over OpenAI government deal (OPENAI:Private)
Kalshi bets shift to Quantum, semiconductor stakes over OpenAI government deal (OPENAI:Private) Seeking Alpha
News Explorer — Polymarket Users Sue Prediction Market Platform Over Strategy Bitcoin Sale Outcome
News Explorer — Polymarket Users Sue Prediction Market Platform Over Strategy Bitcoin Sale Outcome Decrypt
Polymarket Lawsuit: Did Bitcoin Market Rules Change After Trading Closed?
Polymarket Lawsuit: Did Bitcoin Market Rules Change After Trading Closed? The Cryptonomist
Polymarket Released the Most Unexpected Ad of the Year. Every Marketer Should Study It
Polymarket Released the Most Unexpected Ad of the Year. Every Marketer Should Study It inc.com
Polymarket Sued by Traders Claiming $6.5M ‘Scam’ Over Bitcoin Prediction Market
Polymarket Sued by Traders Claiming $6.5M ‘Scam’ Over Bitcoin Prediction Market Casino.org
Macquarie: Kalshi Notional Volume Reaches $33 Billion in June
Macquarie: Kalshi Notional Volume Reaches $33 Billion in June Casino.org
Prediction Markets Price Platner’s Maine Senate Exit as All but Certain by Late July
Prediction-market traders now see the withdrawal of Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner as close to inevitable within weeks, after a new allegation triggered a collapse in Democratic support. Contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi rapidly repriced his exit, the seat’s partisan odds, and even his likely replacement – each in a…
Polymarket’s World Cup Bets Hit $3.9 Billion. Now Trump and Zuckerberg Want A Piece.
Spotify’s streaming fraud issue runs so deep that Kalshi traders are profiting from rigged charts
Spotify’s streaming fraud issue runs so deep that Kalshi traders are profiting from rigged charts Yahoo Finance
Will Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000? Kalshi Traders Predict Fall as Analysts Debate 4-Year Cycle
Will Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000? Kalshi Traders Predict Fall as Analysts Debate 4-Year Cycle Yahoo Finance
Prospect Markets to Enter US Prediction Markets Through Partnership backed by Crypto.com
Prospect Markets to Enter US Prediction Markets Through Partnership backed by Crypto.com Yahoo Finance
Traders on Kalshi think the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 above 30,000, predicting a cooler second half of the year
Speculators think the massive rally in the Nasdaq-100 since the lows following the U.S.-Iran war will be more subdued in the second half of 2026.
Texas Medical Association proposes age limit on prediction markets to prevent gambling ‘addiction’
Texas Medical Association proposes age limit on prediction markets to prevent gambling ‘addiction’ KERA News
Democrats Ask Judiciary to Bar Judges from Prediction Markets
Democrats Ask Judiciary to Bar Judges from Prediction Markets Bloomberg Law News
US soldier challenges CFTC Polymarket lawsuit
US soldier challenges CFTC Polymarket lawsuit ReadWrite
LeBron James Leaves Lakers as Prediction Markets Wager Millions on His Next NBA Home
LeBron James has told the Los Angeles Lakers he will not return, and prediction market bettors are already betting big on where he lands next. The four-time NBA champion ended an eight-year run with the Lakers this month, closing out a Los Angeles chapter that began in 2018 and included a championship in the pandemic-shortened […]
Chicago weighs ban on Kalshi and Polymarket bets for insider city staff
Chicago weighs ban on Kalshi and Polymarket bets for insider city staff Chicago Tribune
State of Play — Prediction Market Exchanges
State of Play — Prediction Market Exchanges Willkie Farr & Gallagher
North Carolina’s Stein OKs Taxes on Prediction Markets, Gambling
North Carolina’s Stein OKs Taxes on Prediction Markets, Gambling Bloomberg Law News
Graham Platner's chances of dropping out skyrocket to 94% after party revolt: Kalshi
Graham Platner's chances of dropping out skyrocket to 94% after party revolt: Kalshi Fox News
Ban on City Employees From Using Private Info in Prediction Markets Advances
Ban on City Employees From Using Private Info in Prediction Markets Advances WTTW News
Jackson Koivun, Max Homa Headline ISCO Championship Prediction Market
Kalshi is favoring Jackson Koivun and Max Homa above the rest at the ISCO Championship.
Democrats Probe Kalshi, Polymarket Over Trump Audit Immunity
Democrats Probe Kalshi, Polymarket Over Trump Audit Immunity Bloomberg Law News
US Soldier Seeks Dismissal of CFTC Polymarket Case, Says Maduro Contracts Were Not ‘Swaps’
The defense argues the Maduro-related prediction market contracts were not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and says the CFTC exceeded its authority in bringing the case. The U.S.
Polymarket hit with New York lawsuit over Strategy Bitcoin market
Polymarket hit with New York lawsuit over Strategy Bitcoin market Crypto News
Michael Saylor's shocking Bitcoin sale triggers a lawsuit against Polymarket
Michael Saylor's shocking Bitcoin sale triggers a lawsuit against Polymarket thestreet.com
Prediction Markets: ESMA Confirms Application of Binary Options Product Intervention Measures to Event Contracts
Prediction Markets: ESMA Confirms Application of Binary Options Product Intervention Measures to Event Contracts fintechanddigitalassets.com
Celtics Stumble in NBA Championship Market on Kalshi Following Jaylen Brown Trade
The Boston Celtics are trending down on Kalshi after trading Jaylen Brown.
Polymarket Lawsuit Over BTC Sale Bet: Traders Dispute $797K Market Settlement
Polymarket Lawsuit Over BTC Sale Bet: Traders Dispute $797K Market Settlement DailyCoin
Pro Padel League inks Kalshi to multiyear marketing deal
Pro Padel League inks Kalshi to multiyear marketing deal Sports Business Journal
Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff Kalshi Market Points Toward Clear Favorite
Kalshi continues to serve Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff as they shift up the board with the quarterfinals up next. Naomi Osaka knocked out pre-tournament favori
Prediction market tax proposal to return in fall, NJ Assembly speaker says
Prediction market tax proposal to return in fall, NJ Assembly speaker says New Jersey Monitor
Polymarket Sued Over Strategy Bitcoin Market Resolution
Plaintiffs allege the prediction market platform improperly changed its interpretation of a Strategy Bitcoin contract after the outcome had already occurred, denying payouts on winning “Yes” positions. Two Polymarket users have sued the company in New York, alleging Polymarket improperly changed the interpretation of a Strategy Bitcoin…
Budget deal would authorize prediction markets in North Carolina
Budget deal would authorize prediction markets in North Carolina Axios
Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet
Gambling Insider can reveal that, contrary to reports in the New York Times and Bloomberg, the partnership between ADI Predictstreet and Kalshi is not as enmeshed as some believed. When asked whether it was accurate that Kalshi is providing market-making services to ADI Predictstreet, sending volumes its way, and discussing plans to…
Two traders sue Polymarket over disputed resolution of Strategy bitcoin sale market
Plaintiffs allege Polymarket wrongly resolved the market as "No" despite Strategy's SEC filing disclosing it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31.
Casino lobbyists wrote a letter attacking prediction markets. Maryland copied it and sent it to federal regulators.
Polymarket Files Lawsuit Against New Mexico Prediction Market Crackdown
Polymarket Files Lawsuit Against New Mexico Prediction Market Crackdown TheLines.com
Wildfire Derivatives
Explores the uncomfortable overlap between prediction markets and parametric insurance through the lens of Polymarket's wildfire contracts during the 2025 Los Angeles fires. Argues that when traditional insurance fails due to overhead and bureaucracy, event contracts function as frictionless climate hedges with instant, objective payouts…
From Prediction Markets to Decision Markets and Beyond!
Alex Tabarrok uses Polymarket's Maine Democratic primary market as a worked example of how conditional probability estimates can be reverse-engineered from prediction market price moves, then argues that Robin Hanson's decision markets (conditional contracts with refund provisions) would give cleaner, continuous estimates of exactly the…
When Do Prophets Profit in Prediction Markets?
Classical theory ties forecasting accuracy to trading profit, but only for automated market makers; on central limit order book exchanges, informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed heuristics profit. The authors prove a formal equivalence that works in both settings: for any strictly proper scoring rule, a "proper…
How Polymarket Made Fake Bets Go Viral
How Polymarket Made Fake Bets Go Viral WSJ
USA-Belgium Prediction Market Apps: Get Best Trading Promos for World Cup
Learn how to use the best USA-Belgium prediction market apps on Monday and score over $100 in welcome bonuses for the match.
Kylian Mbappe Extends Lead on Lionel Messi in Golden Boot Kalshi Market
Kylian Mbappe leads over Messi to win the World Cup Golden Boot on Kalshi. Erling Haaland jumps into contention.
98% Chance to Play: Prediction Markets Surge Over Folarin Balogun’s Suspended FIFA Red Card
The alleged lobbying attempt by President Donald Trump to clear the U.S. team’s top scorer, Folarin Balogun, has sparked interest in prediction markets, with a majority of traders betting on his presence in the upcoming Round of 16 match against Belgium.
Polymarket Trader Loses Over $11 Million on 2026 World Cup Bets in 10 Days
Polymarket Trader Loses Over $11 Million on 2026 World Cup Bets in 10 Days Yahoo Finance
Sports-First Startups Look to Compete in Trillion-Dollar Prediction Market Industry
We chatted with the founders of ProphetX and 365Prediction about the companies’ prediction market ambitions in the face of stiff competition and regulatory risk. Every day we open Twitter, it seems, there’s news of another company with designs on the prediction market space.
Will China Invade Taiwan Before the 2026 Midterms? The Prediction Market Says 3% - tech-insider.org
Will China Invade Taiwan Before the 2026 Midterms? The Prediction Market Says 3% tech-insider.org
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Betting To Record Highs
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Betting To Record Highs Yahoo Finance
Michigan court sidelines Kalshi sports markets
Michigan court sidelines Kalshi sports markets Axios
How Kalshi infects the news - Popular Information
How Kalshi infects the news Popular Information | Judd Legum
Best Ronaldo goal props vs Spain: Prop picks for World Cup prediction markets
See the best Ronaldo goal props vs Spain to trade on prediction markets for the World Cup.
Polymarket Trader Loses $11.6M in 10 Days — What’s Happening on Prediction Markets During World Cup 2026
Polymarket Trader Loses $11.6M in 10 Days — What’s Happening on Prediction Markets During World Cup 2026 Bitcoin Foundation
Polymarket enters Turkey through Paribu integration
Polymarket enters Turkey through Paribu integration AffPapa
Michigan gaming regulator exits NCPG over Kalshi deal
Michigan gaming regulator exits NCPG over Kalshi deal AffPapa
Prediction Market Hearings, World Cup Betting Lead Gambling Stories to Watch
Prediction market litigation continues this week, with North Carolina potentially becoming the next battleground. Meanwhile, World Cup interest keeps driving betting and prediction market activity.
Vault: Hill staffers expecting more prediction market limits
Vault: Hill staffers expecting more prediction market limits Punchbowl News
These Are the Sharps Actually Making Money on Prediction Markets
What it takes to win on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Odd Lots: The Sharps Who Dominate Prediction Markets (Podcast)
Here’s a couple things about prediction markets. A lot of it is pure gambling and speculation, much of it on things with very little economic relevance.
Think you can win on prediction markets? Here's why you're more likely to lose
Think you can win on prediction markets? Here's why you're more likely to lose CBC
CNBC Daily Open: Trump sees red, prediction markets score and NATO's defensive
CNBC Daily Open: Trump sees red, prediction markets score and NATO's defensive CNBC
ESMA Warns Prediction Market Platforms Could Face Strict EU Financial Regulations
On July 3, ESMA issued a statement warning that some event contracts resembling binary options could fall under current derivatives regulation. The regulator stressed that firms offering these instruments should assess whether these contracts fall under this classification to comply with regulatory requirements.
Rare FIFA Article 27 Decision Clears Balogun for Belgium, Sending Polymarket Into Overdrive
Rare FIFA Article 27 Decision Clears Balogun for Belgium, Sending Polymarket Into Overdrive Yahoo Sports
Crypto on the Clock
Pantera Research Lab's empirical study of the $7.8B short-term crypto prediction market on Polymarket and Kalshi, analyzing fee economics, maker rebate structures, and settlement-driven trading patterns. Finds Polymarket's 5-minute market is 86% bot-driven by wallet count, with Binance spot volume spiking 12-17x in the final seconds of…
Opinion: Prediction markets violate Utah’s gambling laws with sports betting
Opinion: Prediction markets violate Utah’s gambling laws with sports betting Deseret News
Michigan regulator leaves National Council on Problem Gambling over Kalshi membership
Michigan regulator leaves National Council on Problem Gambling over Kalshi membership CDC Gaming
Prediction market roundup: Kalshi, state cases from the past week
Prediction market roundup: Kalshi, state cases from the past week CoinDesk
Solana Is Moving Into Prediction Markets With a Bold New Initiative. Could This Be a Game Changer for SOL Investors?
Hedgehog Markets Review: An innovative decentralized prediction market
Hedgehog Markets Review: An innovative decentralized prediction market Crypto Economy
Americans traded $571 million on Polymarket politic bets despite U.S. ban
Joe Burrow Drops in NFL MVP Market at Kalshi
Joe Burrow's MVP price on Kalshi is sliding beyond other major contenders.
Kalshi and prediction market sector embroiled in mixed bag of legal fights across U.S.
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town WIRED
Prediction market betting would be authorized in NC’s new budget. What it means for sports betting
Prediction market betting would be authorized in NC’s new budget. What it means for sports betting WRAL
Prediction markets enjoy their own big day as fans bet on wedding
Prediction markets enjoy their own big day as fans bet on wedding The Observer
Goldman Sachs doubles down on Robinhood stock after record trading surge
Robinhood has spent the last year adding businesses at a pace few brokerages can match. Prediction markets, banking, an AI trading assistant, and a new credit card all launched within months of each other.
Kalshi Posts Record $31 Billion June Volume as 2026 FIFA World Cup Fuels Prediction Markets
Kalshi Posts Record $31 Billion June Volume as 2026 FIFA World Cup Fuels Prediction Markets NewsCord
Kalshi hits record June trading volume as World Cup fuels prediction markets
Kalshi hits record June trading volume as World Cup fuels prediction markets TradingView
EU moves to block retail investors from explosive boom of multibillion-dollar prediction markets
The World Cup sends prediction market volumes soaring to record highs
Trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket both hit record highs in June. Rothera, a new prediction market platform, was also able to manage $2 billion in volume.
Conor McGregor Massive Underdog vs Max Holloway on Kalshi
Max Holloway is heavily favored on Kalshi to defeat Conor McGregor at UFC 329.
Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs today. One specific American is predicted to eat 70 of them
Joey Chestnut is predicted to eat 70 hot dogs this year, just as prediction markets make it easier to gamble on the odds.
Lawsuit Against Polymarket Claims Alleged Deceptive Marketing - Poker News
Lawsuit Against Polymarket Claims Alleged Deceptive Marketing - Poker News Card Player
Michigan Ends NCPG Membership Over Kalshi Affiliation
Michigan Ends NCPG Membership Over Kalshi Affiliation Casino.org
Michigan's legal battle with sports betting platform Kalshi takes another turn
Michigan's legal battle with sports betting platform Kalshi takes another turn WZZM13.com
Can You Trade on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest With Kalshi and Polymarket?
Can You Trade on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest With Kalshi and Polymarket? FOX Sports
Spotify deletes 500K streams of popular song for suspected Kalshi, Polymarket user manipulation
Spotify deletes 500K streams of popular song for suspected Kalshi, Polymarket user manipulation Mashable
Prediction markets can be a force for good
Prediction markets can be a force for good The Michigan Daily
Gopuff and Polymarket Team Up to Give Away $1 Million in Gold for America’s 250th Birthday
Gopuff and Polymarket Team Up to Give Away $1 Million in Gold for America’s 250th Birthday 01net
How Prediction Markets Are Becoming Crypto’s New Sentiment Layer
How Prediction Markets Are Becoming Crypto’s New Sentiment Layer Cryptonews.net
Polymarket and Rick Rubin Question Everything in Brand Debut with Better Half - Little Black Book
Polymarket and Rick Rubin Question Everything in Brand Debut with Better Half Little Black Book | LBBOnline
Kalshi trades spark Spotify investigation into fake streams
Kalshi trades spark Spotify investigation into fake streams Music Ally
Canada Big Underdog Against Morocco on Kalshi
Kalshi is extremely bullish on Morocco to beat Canada in the Round of 16 in the World Cup.
How crowds become stupider
Prediction markets suffer when we all think the same way
Spotify deletes streams of chart-topping song after suspicious Kalshi bets
Spotify deletes streams of chart-topping song after suspicious Kalshi bets Financial Times
Spotify asks Kalshi, Polymarket to remove branding after manipulated streams used to settle music bets: Bloomberg
Spotify asked Kalshi and Polymarket to drop its logo after 500,000 fake streams rigged a $3M music market, Bloomberg reported.
Michigan Gaming Control Board Withdraws From NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership
The regulator said the National Council on Problem Gambling’s partnership with Kalshi conflicts with its mission to protect consumers and support responsible gaming. The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) has withdrawn its membership from the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG).
Fable Ban Reversed + Dr. Dana Suskind on Parenting With A.I. + Prediction Market Drama
What we learned from the government’s biggest attempt yet to control who can gain access to the most powerful new A.I. models.
Delante Johnson Big Favorite vs Christopher Guerrero on Prediction Markets
Prediction markets favor Delante Johnson over Christopher Guerrero
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: Kalshi Faces State Losses as Polymarket Sues New Mexico
Kalshi and Polymarket faced new legal battles as states advanced taxes, Congress proposed new restrictions, and traditional finance moved further into prediction-style markets. This week marked another busy period for the prediction market sector, led by Kalshi facing new setbacks in Michigan and Nevada while Polymarket sued New Mexico.
Kalshi vs Polymarket Comparison: Which Prediction Market Platform Is Best for You?
Kalshi vs Polymarket Comparison: Which Prediction Market Platform Is Best for You? USA Today
Michigan gambling regulator leaves national group over Kalshi partnership
Michigan gambling regulator leaves national group over Kalshi partnership Crain's Detroit
Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Surges 75% to $44.8B in June — FIFA World Cup Drove $832M in Bets
Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Surges 75% to $44.8B in June — FIFA World Cup Drove $832M in Bets Bitcoin Foundation
Spotify Pulls Streams On a Hit Song Over Alleged Fraud Tied to Kalshi Betting
Spotify Pulls Streams On a Hit Song Over Alleged Fraud Tied to Kalshi Betting The Hollywood Reporter
Michigan Regulator Quits NCPG Over Problem Gambling Council's Kalshi Partnership
Michigan Regulator Quits NCPG Over Problem Gambling Council's Kalshi Partnership Yahoo
Tech firms and feds push to block Minnesota’s strict new law on prediction markets
Tech firms and feds push to block Minnesota’s strict new law on prediction markets Star Tribune
Portugal vs Croatia prediction for World Cup: Trade on Kalshi World Cup markets
Portugal vs Croatia prediction for World Cup: Trade on Kalshi World Cup markets Yahoo Sports
'We're Pushing Financial Literacy': Kalshi CEO Claims His App Stops Instagram Brain Rot. Experts Aren't Convinced
'We're Pushing Financial Literacy': Kalshi CEO Claims His App Stops Instagram Brain Rot. Experts Aren't Convinced inc.com
Prediction markets take money from state, tribal economies | Opinion
Prediction markets take money from state, tribal economies | Opinion The Des Moines Register
Prediction Market Retention Playbook: 8 Mechanics from Casinos, Games, and Memecoins
Lays out an 8-point retention playbook for prediction market platforms, arguing the winners will be decided by habit-forming product mechanics rather than oracle quality or market breadth. Covers first-trade urgency, daily streaks, one-tap re-betting, leaderboard copy trading, shareable win moments, customizable flex cards,…
Spotify removes streams of No. 1 song after suspicious Kalshi bets
Spotify removes streams of No. 1 song after suspicious Kalshi bets CBS News
Kalshi, Polymarket fight to block Minnesota ban on prediction markets
Kalshi, Polymarket fight to block Minnesota ban on prediction markets Courthouse News
Spotify Challenges Prediction Markets After Song Chart Rigging
Spotify has asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo and clarify that neither company has a partnership with the streaming service after it identified users manipulating rankings that are tied to prediction market bets.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use in 2026?
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use in 2026? FOX Sports
Nationally watched lawsuit has judge weighing future of Minnesota ban on prediction markets
Nationally watched lawsuit has judge weighing future of Minnesota ban on prediction markets MPR News
Polymarket Locks Horns With New Mexico in Federal Court
Polymarket Locks Horns With New Mexico in Federal Court sbcamericas.com
CFTC Reopens Investigation into Polymarket, Source Confirms - Profit Guidance Range
CFTC Reopens Investigation into Polymarket, Source Confirms - Profit Guidance Range dars.gov.et
Mark Zuckerberg Almost Made a Disastrous Acquisition. Walking Away From Kalshi May Have Been His Best Bet of 2026.
Spotify Confirms Streaming Fraud After Kalshi Trader Cries Foul
Spotify Confirms Streaming Fraud After Kalshi Trader Cries Foul WIRED
What Is a Prediction Market? What They Are & Where to Trade
What Is a Prediction Market? What They Are & Where to Trade USA Today
As prediction markets head to Canada, a Brock expert is urging caution - Niagara-on-the-Lake Local
As prediction markets head to Canada, a Brock expert is urging caution Niagara-on-the-Lake Local
Sports betting is regulated for a reason. Prediction markets shouldn’t get a free pass | Opinion
Sports betting is regulated for a reason. Prediction markets shouldn’t get a free pass | Opinion The Detroit News
Mystery Polymarket Bettor Stakes Around $400,000 On Putin's Ouster Before End Of Year
Mystery Polymarket Bettor Stakes Around $400,000 On Putin's Ouster Before End Of Year Forbes
More States Turn to Prediction Market Taxes as North Carolina and New Jersey Advance Bills
North Carolina lawmakers moved closer to taxing prediction markets as part of a broader gambling tax package. At the same time, New Jersey advanced a proposal to impose a new surcharge on prediction market operators.
Most prediction market contracts have low volume, leaving users exposed to volatility and bots
Most prediction market contracts have low volume, leaving users exposed to volatility and bots CNBC
Novig Founder Isn’t Worried About Kalshi and Polymarket’s Head Start
Novig Founder Isn’t Worried About Kalshi and Polymarket’s Head Start Front Office Sports
How will AI labs eventually make money
What’s the most plausible story where foundation model companies actually start making money?

A fundamental flaw of prediction markets
A fundamental flaw of prediction markets Klement on Investing
Meta looked into Kalshi acquisition before building Arena
Meta looked into Kalshi acquisition before building Arena MSN
Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined volume surges 75% to $45 billion in June amid World Cup fever
Among the three, Kalshi saw the largest month-over-month increase in volume, growing 87.4% to $31.5 billion from $16.81 billion.
Big Polymarket bets have been placed on Putin’s downfall
Big Polymarket bets have been placed on Putin’s downfall NBC News
People can now bet on wildfires on prediction markets. What could go wrong?
Cboe Seeks to List Prediction Market Type Options on Earnings Metrics
Cboe Global Markets Inc. is seeking US regulatory approval to list all-or-nothing options tied to corporate earnings results, allowing traders to wager on figures ranging from SpaceX revenue and Nvidia data-center sales to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s credit-loss provisions.
Polymarket Sues New Mexico to Block State Enforcement
Polymarket Sues New Mexico to Block State Enforcement Covers.com
Why Meta Looked at Buying Kalshi Before Building Arena
Why Meta Looked at Buying Kalshi Before Building Arena TechTrendsKE
Prediction Markets Ask States to Review Casino Lobby Connections
Prediction Markets Ask States to Review Casino Lobby Connections Bloomberg Law News
Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets
Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets WSJ
Meta considered Kalshi acquisition before developing Arena prediction market app, report says
Meta considered Kalshi acquisition before developing Arena prediction market app, report says CDC Gaming
Is Polymarket down. Polymarket crash topic on social media. Polymarket down?
Is Polymarket down. Polymarket crash topic on social media.
Zuckerberg Eyed Kalshi Buyout Before Developing Meta’s Own Prediction App
Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg approached prediction-market leader Kalshi about a takeover before ordering his own team to build a competing app, according to a new report. How a buy-then-build turned into a contested market NPR reported Monday that Zuckerberg met Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour last year to discuss buying…
Polymarket Sues New Mexico to Prevent ‘Imminent and Irreparable Harm’
Polymarket Sues New Mexico to Prevent ‘Imminent and Irreparable Harm’ Sports Betting Dime
Anthony Davis Trade: Kalshi Says Yes!
Anthony Davis is favored to be traded on Kalshi with the latest trade rumors.
Solana-based prediction market app on Phantom wallet launches
“Prediction markets are one of the most powerful applications you can build on a high-performance blockchain,” said Solana Foundation.
Prediction Market World Debuts on Solana, Lets Traders Bet on Bitcoin Moves and World Cup Outcomes
World went live on Solana on Wednesday, opening a fully onchain prediction market inside the Phantom wallet. The platform lets users trade on outcomes ranging from bitcoin’s short-term price moves to the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup, without moving funds into a separate app or custodial account.
Unveiled North Carolina Budget Includes Sports Betting Tax Increase, New Prediction Market Tax
Unveiled North Carolina Budget Includes Sports Betting Tax Increase, New Prediction Market Tax Sports Betting Dime
Bronny James Prediction Market on Kalshi Surprises After LeBron Report
Kalshi is bullish on Bronny James remaining with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Meta looked into Kalshi acquisition before building Arena (META:NASDAQ)
Meta looked into Kalshi acquisition before building Arena (META:NASDAQ) Seeking Alpha
Kalshi Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Tax and Licensing Law
Kalshi Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Tax and Licensing Law PlayUSA
As prediction markets head to Canada, a Brock expert is urging caution
As prediction markets head to Canada, a Brock expert is urging caution ThoroldToday.ca
Mysterious Solana project World unveiled as fully onchain prediction market
Prediction Markets Hit $24B A Month. Now US States Are Fighting Back
Prediction Markets Hit $24B A Month. Now US States Are Fighting Back Forbes
Kalshi ordered to halt operations in Michigan
Kalshi ordered to halt operations in Michigan WILX
England vs DR Congo prediction for World Cup: Trade on World Cup with Polymarket
Get the best England vs DR Congo prediction for the World Cup to trade on all the action using Polymarket.
Wagering on Wildfires? There’s a New Prediction Market for That
Wagering on Wildfires? There’s a New Prediction Market for That Gizmodo
Joey Chestnut’s Hot Dog Total on Kalshi is Nearing Record-Breaking Number
Joey Chestnut has a record breaking number listed on his hot dog eating total at Kalshi.
Meta Explored Kalshi Acquisition Before Building Its Own Prediction Market App
Meta Explored Kalshi Acquisition Before Building Its Own Prediction Market App iGamingToday.com
Michigan judge temporarily blocks Kalshi’s sports event contracts
Michigan judge temporarily blocks Kalshi’s sports event contracts Spectrum News
Massachusetts judge allows amended Kalshi lawsuit
Massachusetts judge allows amended Kalshi lawsuit grafa.com
Kalshi & ADI Predictstreet Team Up for World Cup Prediction Markets Expansion
Kalshi & ADI Predictstreet Team Up for World Cup Prediction Markets Expansion SportsHandle
Draftkings Drops Crypto.com, Launches Own Prediction Market Exchange
Draftkings has taken more of its prediction-markets stack in-house, launching DKeX and shifting trading away from third-party infrastructure such as CME Group and Crypto.com, though the company has not publicly framed the move as a formal termination of those relationships. From renting rails to owning the exchange Draftkings launched…
Zuckerberg's Meta pursued Kalshi acquisition but talks fell through, shifts to building its own app
Zuckerberg's Meta pursued Kalshi acquisition but talks fell through, shifts to building its own app 디지털투데이
Kalshi Sports Markets Banned in Michigan as Temporary Blackout Takes Effect
Kalshi Sports Markets Banned in Michigan as Temporary Blackout Takes Effect Decrypt
60% of Polymarket Traders Are Crypto Newbies
60% of Polymarket Traders Are Crypto Newbies Casino.org
Polymarket's Blockchain Migration: Compliance, Migration Paths, and the Future of On-Chain Markets
Deep-dive analysis of Polymarket International's likely blockchain migration as it pursues CFTC compliance. Covers three technical migration paths — mirror-and-cutoff, dual chain instances, and sunset switchover — along with changes to KYC requirements and dispute resolution mechanisms.
Meta Discussed Kalshi Acquisition, But Talks Didn’t Advance
Meta Discussed Kalshi Acquisition, But Talks Didn’t Advance Casino.org
Bloomberg Crypto 6/30/2026
"Bloomberg Crypto" covers the people, transactions, and technology shaping the world of decentralized finance. Today's guests: Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault, BitGet CEO Gracy Chen, Luxor Technology COO Ethan Vera, and Fireblocks Policy Director Dea Markova.
Why are prediction markets coming to Canada?
Why are prediction markets coming to Canada? CBC
North Carolina Targets Prediction Markets, Sports Betting Taxes
North Carolina Targets Prediction Markets, Sports Betting Taxes Bloomberg Law News
Massachusetts AG files amended lawsuit against Kalshi over sports betting after court ruling
Massachusetts AG files amended lawsuit against Kalshi over sports betting after court ruling TradingView
Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app
Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app NPR
SEC Opens 27-Question Review of Novel ETFs, Puts Crypto Products in Focus
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked the public on June 30, 2026, to weigh in on how it regulates exchange-traded funds built around crypto assets, event contracts, and other nontraditional holdings.
Judge blocks Kalshi prediction market from operating in Michigan
Judge blocks Kalshi prediction market from operating in Michigan Detroit Free Press
Kalshi Sues Ohio Over $5M Sports Prediction Market Fine
Kalshi Sues Ohio Over $5M Sports Prediction Market Fine DeFi Rate
Physicians Flag Prediction Markets as a Rising Threat to Adolescents with Addiction Disorders
Physicians Flag Prediction Markets as a Rising Threat to Adolescents with Addiction Disorders Mega Doctor News
Canadian limitations will help curb prediction market risks — but issues remain, says Brock expert
Canadian limitations will help curb prediction market risks — but issues remain, says Brock expert Brock University
Prediction Market ETFs Prompt SEC Review Of Fund Rules - SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD), iShares Bitcoin Tru
Prediction Market ETFs Prompt SEC Review Of Fund Rules - SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD), iShares Bitcoin Tru Benzinga
Court orders Kalshi to temporarily halt sports wagering in Michigan or face $120k per day fine
Court orders Kalshi to temporarily halt sports wagering in Michigan or face $120k per day fine WZZM13.com
Kalshi Must Face Expanded Mass. Gaming Suit, Judge Says
Kalshi Must Face Expanded Mass. Gaming Suit, Judge Says Law360
High Interest in Perpetual Futures: Kalshi's DeNault
Robert DeNault, head of enforcement at Kalshi, joins Isabelle Lee on "Bloomberg Crypto." Last month the CFTC permitted the listing of perpetual futures on US exchanges. Kalshi’s contracts were the first perpetual futures approved by the CFTC, marking an expansion beyond the company’s core business of listing event contracts.
Michigan Regulator Wins Temporary Pause On Sports Trading At Kalshi
Michigan Regulator Wins Temporary Pause On Sports Trading At Kalshi LegalSportsReport
LeBron James is a big favorite to join Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors at sportsbooks and prediction markets
LeBron James is a big favorite to join Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors at sportsbooks and prediction markets Yahoo Sports
Polymarket's Debut Brand Campaign Launches During World Cup // Rick Rubin, Future & Peso Pluma
Polymarket's Debut Brand Campaign Launches During World Cup // Rick Rubin, Future & Peso Pluma Roastbrief US
Prediction Markets Make Betting Feel Like Finance. It’s Not.
Kalshi, Predictstreet Partner to Bolster 2026 World Cup Prediction Markets
Kalshi, Predictstreet Partner to Bolster 2026 World Cup Prediction Markets Action Network
New study finds prediction markets bringing first-time users into crypto
New study finds prediction markets bringing first-time users into crypto Yogonet
Owning the Exchange Is Becoming the New Competitive Advantage in Prediction Markets
Owning the Exchange Is Becoming the New Competitive Advantage in Prediction Markets Finance Magnates
Betting website Kalshi ordered to stop operating in Michigan
Betting website Kalshi ordered to stop operating in Michigan FOX 2 Detroit
CFTC Launches New Investigation into Polymarket, Sources Report - Earnings Stability Report
CFTC Launches New Investigation into Polymarket, Sources Report - Earnings Stability Report dars.gov.et
Rookie Jackson Koivun Among Leaders on Kalshi Market for John Deere
Jackson Koivun is one of the favorites to win the John Deere Classic in his pro debut.
SEC opens ETF rule review following crypto fund surge, prediction markets push
The SEC is taking a fresh look at how a proposed fast-growing new class of ETFs tied to prediction markets should be regulated.
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding rumors fuel millions in bets on prediction markets
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding rumors fuel millions in bets on prediction markets CBS News
Kalshi ordered to stop taking Michigan sports trades after judge rules platform skirts gambling law
Kalshi ordered to stop taking Michigan sports trades after judge rules platform skirts gambling law Crain's Detroit
Kalshi Facing Scrutiny Over Trump Jr. $300,000 Share Gift
Kalshi Facing Scrutiny Over Trump Jr. $300,000 Share Gift Yahoo Finance
Kalshi Picks Up World Cup Sponsorship Deal at a Deep Discount
Kalshi Picks Up World Cup Sponsorship Deal at a Deep Discount Bloomberg.com
Kalshi Sues Ohio Regulator to Try to Block Planned $5M Fine
Kalshi Sues Ohio Regulator to Try to Block Planned $5M Fine sbcamericas.com
Kalshi Puts ‘Restrictions’ in Place in Michigan Following Court Ruling
Kalshi Puts ‘Restrictions’ in Place in Michigan Following Court Ruling Yahoo Finance
Inside Zuckerberg’s Reported Plan to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets
Inside Zuckerberg’s Reported Plan to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets Yahoo Finance
Kalshi Finagled a World Cup Sponsorship Deal at a Deep Discount
When the World Cup knockout round began Sunday, Kalshi joined the likes of Coca-Cola, Visa and Adidas with sideline advertising in the stadiums — an unusual addition, given that the event is halfway over, and also that FIFA already signed up an “official prediction markets partner” in ADI Predictstreet, a startup with ties to the Abu…
CFTC Launches Fresh Investigation Into Polymarket, Sources Indicate - Earnings Surprise Stocks
CFTC Launches Fresh Investigation Into Polymarket, Sources Indicate - Earnings Surprise Stocks dars.gov.et
New College Football Favorite Emerges on Kalshi as Texas Stumbles
Oregon is the new favorite on Kalsi to win the National Championship. Texas slides down as the outright favorite.
Judge Orders Kalshi to Stop Offering Sports Markets in Michigan
Prediction market operator faces daily six-figure fine if it cannot meet temporary restraining order’s geolocation requirement A Michigan judge on Monday approved a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, requiring the prediction exchange to halt offering contracts on sporting events in the state. In the four-page document, Ingham…
Battleground House members introduce prediction market ban for politicians, federal candidates - ABC News
Battleground House members introduce prediction market ban for politicians, federal candidates ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Kalshi Sets USA as Massive Favorite to Advance Against Bosnia Herzegovina
The United States is a heavy favorite over Bosnia-Herzegovina in the knockout round of 32.
Kalshi hit with 14-day restraining order in Michigan, blocking sports prediction markets in state
Jurisdiction over prediction market platforms is an ongoing dispute between the CFTC and multiple state regulators.
The Original Prediction Market Boosters Have Qualms About the Boom
At Manifest, some tech intellectuals wondered whether Super Bowl bets were really helping humanity.
Prediction Market Theorists Question Kalshi, Polymarket Boom
Prediction Market Theorists Question Kalshi, Polymarket Boom Bloomberg Law News
Election betting ban advances as lawmakers target prediction markets
Election betting ban advances as lawmakers target prediction markets New Jersey Globe
Kalshi Forges Strategic Alliance with FIFA Partner ADI Predictstreet to Expand Global Reach
Kalshi Forges Strategic Alliance with FIFA Partner ADI Predictstreet to Expand Global Reach Ministry of Sport
Arkham Intelligence Ranks Polymarket Traders by Skill — Top Forecaster Hits 66.1% Win Rate
Arkham Intelligence rolled out a new skill-based rating system for Polymarket traders on Monday, shifting how the platform measures performance from profit totals to forecasting accuracy. What Elo Measures The new feature, called Prediction Market Elo, applies an Elo/MMR-style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and competitive…
Judge temporarily blocks Kalshi from allowing Michigan residents to place online sports bets
Judge temporarily blocks Kalshi from allowing Michigan residents to place online sports bets CBS News
Illinois delays enforcing new tax law against Kalshi as lawsuit proceeds
Illinois delays enforcing new tax law against Kalshi as lawsuit proceeds Crain's Chicago Business
Prediction markets open insider training minefield for corporate counsel: What to know
Prediction markets open insider training minefield for corporate counsel: What to know Missouri Lawyers Media
Betting on Everything: Prediction markets draw millions of users — and regulatory questions
Betting on Everything: Prediction markets draw millions of users — and regulatory questions KWTX
Michigan judge blocks Kalshi from allowing residents to place sports bets
Michigan judge blocks Kalshi from allowing residents to place sports bets Reuters
Thoughts on another prediction markets ad on TikTok
Thoughts on another prediction markets ad on TikTok CDC Gaming
Prediction Market Betting Profiles: The New Resume
Argues that onchain prediction market betting profiles reveal deeper insights about individuals than traditional resumes. With structured data on specific questions, resolution criteria, and outcomes, a trader's history shows how they price information and manage risk — suggesting Polymarket and Kalshi profiles may eventually appear on…
CFTC Expands Polymarket Probe to Staged Trades and Fake Wins
CFTC Expands Polymarket Probe to Staged Trades and Fake Wins thedefiant.io
Prediction Markets: A Primer
Prediction Markets: A Primer The American Action Forum
Dodgers World Series Market Spikes on Kalshi After Yankees Get Swept
The New York Yankees price to win the World Series drops while the Los Angeles Dodgers spike.
Kalshi Barred for Now From Offering Sports Wagering in Michigan
Kalshi Barred for Now From Offering Sports Wagering in Michigan Bloomberg Law News
Polymarket-backed Polysights raises $1.5M to fund AI surveillance tools for prediction markets
Polymarket-backed Polysights raises $1.5M to fund AI surveillance tools for prediction markets Yogonet
Arkham launches ranking system for prediction market traders
The highest Elo-ranked trader, “GardenerCx,” has a win rate of 64.3% over 2,644 bets focused on up/down bitcoin markets.
A look at prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket
A look at prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket Sports Business Journal
CFTC expands probe into Polymarket over staged trades and fake wins
CFTC expands probe into Polymarket over staged trades and fake wins Crypto Briefing
Kalshi sues Illinois over prediction market regulations ahead of July 1 deadline
Kalshi sues Illinois over prediction market regulations ahead of July 1 deadline Yogonet
Prediction market consolidation could spark wave of M&A across sports betting, Bernstein says
Prediction market consolidation could spark wave of M&A across sports betting, Bernstein says CoinDesk
Best goal props for World Cup games today: Prop picks for World Cup Round of 32
Get the best goal props for World Cup games today to trade on prediction markets for the World Cup knockout stages.
France's World Cup Lead on Kalshi Cut Into By Defending Champions
France remains the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup. Argentina is closing in on Kalshi.
The Coming Supreme Court Showdown Over Prediction Markets
The Coming Supreme Court Showdown Over Prediction Markets City Journal
World Cup to Drive Billions in Betting Volume
This year’s World Cup is the first since prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket exploded to popularity as a new way to bet on sports. Chad Beynon, Senior Gaming, Lodging, and Theaters Analyst at Macquarie, talks about how the World Cup is impacting the US sports betting market and which stocks stand to benefit.
Kalshi and Polymarket could become M&A targets as prediction markets consolidate: Bernstein
Federal agencies back Kalshi against Rhode Island
Federal agencies back Kalshi against Rhode Island ReadWrite
Prediction market indices provider @adjacent___ raised $2.5M in a Pre-seed funding round from Night Capital, @vaneck_us, @ufo_holdings, @Maven11Capital, @DCGco.
Bipartisan Senators Call for CFTC Investigation of Polymarket Over Staged Promotions
Bipartisan Senators Call for CFTC Investigation of Polymarket Over Staged Promotions unchainedcrypto.com
Mercedes boss questions how Ferrari can afford "limitless" F1 upgrades
Mercedes boss questions how Ferrari can afford "limitless" F1 upgrades Motorsport.com
The Causal Belief Graph
Will AGI appear thanks to Prediction Markets, and Markets Generally?

Prediction Markets Emerge in Japan, With Shopping Vouchers
Homegrown platforms, banned from real-money gambling, are tapping the country’s loyalty-point culture to build an alternative to Polymarket.
Polymarket Faces CFTC Probe and Deals With $3 Million Hack
Polymarket Faces CFTC Probe and Deals With $3 Million Hack PYMNTS.com
10 Crypto Market Predictions for 2026 Show Winners, Laggards, and Emerging Trends
21Shares says its 2026 crypto forecasts are showing uneven progress, with prediction markets and Ethereum scaling ahead of pace while ETPs, stablecoins, DeFi, digital asset treasuries, and tokenized assets trail ambitious targets. 21Shares Measures 10 Crypto Forecasts Against Midyear Market Data Crypto markets are entering the second…
Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations
Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations CBS News
Kalshi Seeks $40 Billion Valuation as CEO Rules Out IPO Before 2027
Kalshi Seeks $40 Billion Valuation as CEO Rules Out IPO Before 2027 Bettors Insider
Kalshi, ADI Predictstreet partner on co-branded spots during World Cup
Kalshi, ADI Predictstreet partner on co-branded spots during World Cup Sports Business Journal
Wolff stunned by Ferrari's relentless development: 'They seem to be limitless in that way'
Wolff stunned by Ferrari's relentless development: 'They seem to be limitless in that way' Yahoo Sports
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi WSJ
[Research] Hedging That Needs Continuous Probability
Polymarket's March 2026 oil markets case study: how binary architecture fragments liquidity across strikes, why staircase hedges leave basis risk, and how a continuous market collapses 21 binaries into one position.
[Research] Binary Events: Does Liquidity Trade The Tails?
Splitting 18,863 Polymarket events into continuous and categorical slices and re-running the v1 analysis. Concentration is architecture-wide; ghost markets are a categorical phenomenon.
[Research] Binary Events: What Happens When You Split One Market Into Twenty
A metadata study of 36,777 Polymarket events: splitting one question into many binary contracts concentrates liquidity in ~5 markets, leaves ghost markets in the tails, and taxes the low-priced contracts.
[Research] The Yes Bias Might Not Exist
Analysing 7,292 resolved events and 28,793 Polymarket trades: the apparent YES bias looks like longshot preference channelled through how questions are framed.
[Research] Information as Supply
Prediction market TAM should include the supply side: as the cost of producing real-time probability estimates collapses, the addressable market widens far past trading volume.
[Research] Noisy Traders Are Not Dumb Money
The smart-money-vs-dumb-money framing misreads prediction markets. Drawing on NBER, the BIN model, and the Kapoor Quadrant, noise is a structural requirement, not a bug.
[Research] Prediction Market Resolution: A State Confirmation Problem
Prediction markets must agree on what actually happened. functionSPACE compares delegated (Kalshi) and collective (UMA, Reality.eth, Chainlink) confirmation.
[Research] The Prediction Market Economy
Prediction markets are under 0.5% of DeFi volume, but reframed as information finance they look early, not small. functionSPACE maps the four-layer prediction economy.
[Research] Information Vectors: an intro to composable beliefs
Beliefs aren't binary — they're directional, bracketed, distributional. Binary contracts force 1-bit expression and fragment capital up to 256×; composable beliefs trade on a shared surface.
How Polymarket Traders Revolted Over One Silly Syllable
How one silly syllable ignited a bitter dispute over the nature of reality on Polymarket.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over state's push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over state's push to regulate sports bets The Pantagraph
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Anything. That's a Problem
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Anything. That's a Problem CNET
Rick Rubin Stars in Polymarket Commercial
Rick Rubin Stars in Polymarket Commercial Consequence of Sound
Meta and prediction markets: what could possibly go wrong?
Argues that prediction markets are following the same trajectory as social media — starting with idealistic narratives about information aggregation but devolving into gambling, manipulation, and regulatory arbitrage. Highlights Meta's new prediction market app Arena, insider trading cases like the US Special Forces Maduro raid bet, and…
Kalshi Partners With ADI Predictstreet to Expand World Cup Prediction Markets
Kalshi Partners With ADI Predictstreet to Expand World Cup Prediction Markets BeInCrypto
Donald Trump Jr. Got A Kalshi Stake For Free— Now It Could Be Worth Billions As Prediction Market Platform Eyes $40 Billion Valuation: Report
World Cup Stirs $40Bn Valuation Hunt for Kalshi: Are Prediction Market Valuations Real?
Meta May Launch a Prediction Markets Platform, Report Says
Meta May Launch a Prediction Markets Platform, Report Says HOKANEWS.COM
NBA Finals Prediction Market Apps: Claims Best Bonuses For Knicks-Spurs Series
NBA Finals Prediction Market Apps: Claims Best Bonuses For Knicks-Spurs Series WTOP
Polymarket hack updated to $3.1 million days after the platform promised users full refunds
Kalshi signs deal with FIFA’s official World Cup partner ADI Predictstreet
Kalshi signs deal with FIFA’s official World Cup partner ADI Predictstreet WIN.GG
Polymarket sued over ‘flagrantly deceptive’ social media ads
Polymarket sued over ‘flagrantly deceptive’ social media ads Politico
Prediction markets go wild with Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding questions
Prediction markets go wild with Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding questions news8000.com
Polymarket's Troubles Deepen As Report Says CFTC Launches Extensive Probe Following $3 Million Hack And B
Polymarket's Troubles Deepen As Report Says CFTC Launches Extensive Probe Following $3 Million Hack And B Benzinga
Polymarket acquires Craft Agents, with some team members joining Polymarket
Polymarket acquires Craft Agents, with some team members joining Polymarket Bitget
Washington pulled the plug on Anthropic's best AI: Here's when prediction markets say it comes back
Washington pulled the plug on Anthropic's best AI: Here's when prediction markets say it comes back MSN
U.S. senators urge CFTC probe into Polymarket over alleged deceptive marketing
U.S. senators urge CFTC probe into Polymarket over alleged deceptive marketing 디지털투데이
ARK Invest Will Use Kalshi Markets To Guide Investment Calls
ARK Invest Will Use Kalshi Markets To Guide Investment Calls CoinMarketCap
Polymarket Traders Wager on Strategy’s STRC Reclaiming Par as Critics Call It a ‘Junk Bond’
STRC’s collapse below par has sparked intense debate as Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock struggles beneath the $75 mark. Yet Polymarket bettors still see a path back, wagering that the stock will eventually reclaim its intended price, though not anytime soon.
US Senators Urge CFTC to Probe Polymarket Over Alleged Deceptive Marketing
US Senators Urge CFTC to Probe Polymarket Over Alleged Deceptive Marketing CryptoRank
U.S. Begins Investigating Polymarket, a Test of a Key Regulator
U.S. Begins Investigating Polymarket, a Test of a Key Regulator The New York Times
US derivatives watchdog probes predictions market Polymarket
States and consumer advocates call for more oversight of rapidly growing venue
Zuckerberg Pushes Meta To Explore Polymarket Partnership, Sources Say
Zuckerberg Pushes Meta To Explore Polymarket Partnership, Sources Say Bitcoin World
Regulators Are Investigating Polymarket, Reports Say—As Senators Demand A Federal Probe
Regulators Are Investigating Polymarket, Reports Say—As Senators Demand A Federal Probe Forbes
Kalshi Seeks $40B Valuation Seven Weeks After $22B Raise
Kalshi Seeks $40B Valuation Seven Weeks After $22B Raise thedefiant.io
Live Limitless Refuge Center & Project Rise host carnival in Troy
Live Limitless Refuge Center & Project Rise host carnival in Troy NEWS10 ABC
Report: CFTC Conducting Extensive Investigation Into Polymarket
Report: CFTC Conducting Extensive Investigation Into Polymarket Yahoo Finance
Polymarket Confirms Hackers Drained $3 Million From Users After Third-Party Breach
Prediction-market platform Polymarket said hackers stole roughly $3 million from users after a third-party vendor was compromised and malicious code was injected into its website. The incident has since been fully contained, and refunds are being initiated for affected users in full.
Zuckerberg asks Meta to explore working with Polymarket and Kalshi, NYT reports
Zuckerberg asks Meta to explore working with Polymarket and Kalshi, NYT reports Reuters
Limitless Labs raises $20 million to expand AI platform for CNC programming and precision manufacturing
Limitless Labs raises $20 million to expand AI platform for CNC programming and precision manufacturing Robotics & Automation News
Next Round of Speakers Announced for PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference - News-Press NOW
Next Round of Speakers Announced for PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference News-Press NOW
Kalshi Eyes $40B Valuation As Prediction Market Volume Surges
Kalshi Eyes $40B Valuation As Prediction Market Volume Surges Crypto Adventure
Wall Street likes what DraftKings just took away from itself
DraftKings (DKNG) turned on its own prediction markets exchange this week, a shift the company has been engineering since last fall. For seven months, every contract traded on DraftKings Predictions ran through somebody else’s infrastructure.
Kalshi asks court to dismiss tribal challenge to sports prediction markets
Kalshi asks court to dismiss tribal challenge to sports prediction markets Tribal Business News
Lawsuit: Polymarket staged fake bets, paid for secret ads
Lawsuit: Polymarket staged fake bets, paid for secret ads Deseret News
Matthew Stafford's Retirement Year Set Far Off By Kalshi
A retirement market has opened on Kalshi for when Matthew Stafford will retire.
Illinois sued over prediction market law imposing new taxes, regulations
Illinois sued over prediction market law imposing new taxes, regulations The Center Square
CFTC is conducting an investigation into Polymarket, source says
The probe comes after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice dropped previous inquiries into Polymarket last July.
Kalshi Sues Illinois Over New Prediction Market Tax
Kalshi Sues Illinois Over New Prediction Market Tax Sports Betting Dime
Kalshi granted Donald Trump Jr. $300K in shares for senior adviser role: report
Kalshi granted Donald Trump Jr. $300K in shares for senior adviser role: report New York Post
Gen-Z Traders Go for Broke In American Dream Pursuit
Bloomberg's Justina Lee joins Lisa Mateo and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." The share of stock volumes of retail investors has doubled over the past 15 years, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. Social media and the gamification of trading have played a decisive role in the growth of investing in crypto, options, sports betting, and…
Mark Zuckerberg Urges Meta to Explore Working With Polymarket and Kalshi
Mr. Zuckerberg’s plans for Arena, a prediction markets app that Meta is building, also include appealing to 18- to 34-year-old users.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets Capitol News Illinois
Notre Dame Tops College Football Undefeated Contenders on Kalshi
Notre Dame is favored on Kalshi to finish the 2026-27 college football season undefeated.
CFTC Conducting Broad Probe Into Prediction Market Polymarket
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an extensive investigation into Polymarket, according to a person familiar with the matter, the latest challenge for the prediction market platform plagued by operational stumbles and legal scrutiny.
Senators Demand Answers From CFTC Over Alleged Polymarket Deceptive Advertising
Senators Demand Answers From CFTC Over Alleged Polymarket Deceptive Advertising Decrypt
Wall Street regulator investigating prediction market giant Polymarket
Wall Street regulator investigating prediction market giant Polymarket Politico
Polymarket Scrutiny Intensifies With Deceptive Marketing Lawsuit
Polymarket Scrutiny Intensifies With Deceptive Marketing Lawsuit Front Office Sports
Kalshi MLB picks today: Best trades for Yankees-Red Sox, Dodgers-Padres, Cubs-Brewers on Friday, June 26
Kalshi MLB picks today: Best trades for Yankees-Red Sox, Dodgers-Padres, Cubs-Brewers on Friday, June 26 CBS Sports
Kalshi’s Next Bet: A World Cup Deal as It Seeks More Growth
Kalshi’s Next Bet: A World Cup Deal as It Seeks More Growth The New York Times
Polymarket Hit With Deceptive Influencer Endorsements Lawsuit
Polymarket Hit With Deceptive Influencer Endorsements Lawsuit Bloomberg Law News
Wimbledon Men's and Women's Market on Kalshi
Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka are each favored to win the men's and women's Wimbledon. Serena Williams is returning at Wimbledon.
Kalshi Scores FIFA World Cup Spotlight as Prediction Market Trading Surges to Record
Kalshi Scores FIFA World Cup Spotlight as Prediction Market Trading Surges to Record Yahoo Finance
As Kalshi Valuation Swells, Trump Jr Stake Could Be Worth Billions
As Kalshi Valuation Swells, Trump Jr Stake Could Be Worth Billions Casino.org
Save the date and place your trades: what's in store for the Swift/Kelce wedding?
Save the date and place your trades: what's in store for the Swift/Kelce wedding? Kalshi
Bipartisan senators call for CFTC investigation into Polymarket after fake bets report
Senators are demanding for the CFTC to investigate Polymarket following reports that it paid creators to stage fake winning bets.
Updated Kalshi Code OREGONLIVE1: New $10 cash bonus for Egypt-Iran, New Zealand-Belgium in OR, WA, and CA
Updated Kalshi Code OREGONLIVE1: New $10 cash bonus for Egypt-Iran, New Zealand-Belgium in OR, WA, and CA OregonLive.com
NC Sticks it to Bettors, World Cup Trading Booms, Kalshi Coffers Fatten in This Week’s Bingos & Busts
I don’t usually write in first person, but this week’s news hits particularly close to home. I was hoping to be giving a big ole’ bingo today to the US men’s soccer team for going perfect through World Cup group play and writing about how the squads’ momentum would boost sportsbook handle and prediction market […]
Glimpse Debuts Bitcoin Prediction Market to Reward Accura…
Glimpse Debuts Bitcoin Prediction Market to Reward Accura… FF News
Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond
Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond Yahoo Finance
More Than Two Dozen Prediction Market Bills Reflect Congressional Attention Not Agreement, Law Experts Say
Federal lawmakers have introduced an abundance of prediction market bills. Experts say the proposals reflect growing attention to the industry rather than a consensus on regulation.
Polymarket Crosses This Revenue Milestone. DraftKings Launches Predictions Exchange.
Next Round of Speakers Announced for PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference
Next Round of Speakers Announced for PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference Corsicana Daily Sun
$3 Million Reportedly Stolen in Polymarket Hack
$3 Million Reportedly Stolen in Polymarket Hack SecurityWeek
SpaceX Stock Holding Above $135 IPO Price Is An Unlikely Outcome For Prediction Market Bettors As SPCX Pl
SpaceX Stock Holding Above $135 IPO Price Is An Unlikely Outcome For Prediction Market Bettors As SPCX Pl Benzinga
DraftKings launches its own prediction markets exchange as consumer volume exceeds $3 billion
The company said its prediction markets vertical has generated approximately $3.4 billion in annualized consumer volume.
Exclusive | Lawmakers Call for Investigation into Deceptive Advertising by Polymarket
Exclusive | Lawmakers Call for Investigation into Deceptive Advertising by Polymarket WSJ
Prediction market platform Polymarket tops $1 billion in annualized revenue, source says
CFTC Prediction Market Comment Period Closes July 27 Amid World Cup Betting Boom
CFTC Prediction Market Comment Period Closes July 27 Amid World Cup Betting Boom Bettors Insider
Kalshi to Become a World Cup Partner as It Pursues More Growth
The prediction market is betting that the association with the soccer tournament will help bolster betting volumes as it works toward an I.P.O.
Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: Litigation Spreads as Congress Joins the Fight
New lawsuits, tribal intervention, and the first federal prediction market bill to advance from committee made for another eventful week. Prediction market litigation continued to expand across the U.S.
Draftkings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange Dkex with Integration into Unified Draftkings Sports and Casino App
Draftkings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange Dkex with Integration into Unified Draftkings Sports and Casino App marketscreener.com
Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5% blockchain.news
Polymarket annualized revenue surpasses $1 billion six weeks after its U.S. exchange launch
World Cup trading and the end of its U.S. waitlist are driving rapid growth for Polymarket's prediction market platform.
Donald Trump Jr set for Kalshi windfall after prediction platform gave him stake
Privately owned company’s valuation has soared as US administration has adopted a light-touch approach to the sector
Kalshi, Tradeweb Partnership Kicking Into Gear
Kalshi, Tradeweb Partnership Kicking Into Gear Casino.org
Polymarket to Refund Users After Scammers Swipe Millions in Website Exploit
Polymarket to Refund Users After Scammers Swipe Millions in Website Exploit Yahoo Finance
How MMs are Mispricing Prediction Markets
Detailed analysis of how Kalshi market makers (quant firms like SIG) shade lines against expected retail flow during the 2026 World Cup, creating persistent edges for informed sports traders. Covers the France vs Norway case study where public rotation news was ignored by models for three days, the fee structure that prevents clean…
‘An absolute mess:’ Prediction markets create new gamble for Oklahoma tribes
‘An absolute mess:’ Prediction markets create new gamble for Oklahoma tribes The Journal Record
Blumenthal & Merkley Lead Colleagues in Push to End CFTC Assault on State Prediction Markets Oversight
Blumenthal & Merkley Lead Colleagues in Push to End CFTC Assault on State Prediction Markets Oversight Merkley (.gov)
Biden Solicitor General Backs Prediction Markets in State Spat
Biden Solicitor General Backs Prediction Markets in State Spat Bloomberg Law News
Polymarket says hackers stole users’ funds
The prediction market giant Polymarket said it's refunding users who had funds stolen due to a third-party breach.
Should Meta Buy a Prediction Market? ProphetX’s Dean Sisun Has Ideas
Meta is reportedly building its own prediction markets platform. Sisun, the co-founder of a nascent exchange, says there’s already a model for the tech giant to follow.
Risk Managing Prediction Markets
Risk Managing Prediction Markets galaxy.com
Prediction markets just posted their third straight record-setting week
Prediction markets just had their biggest week ever.

Kalshi eyes valuation jump, Chess.com deal, and Clearwater's buyout
Kalshi eyes valuation jump, Chess.com deal, and Clearwater's buyout Axios
The Metaculus Democracy Threat Index
Scott Alexander reviews the Metaculus US Democracy Threat Index, a prediction market index tracking expected threats to American democracy through 2027-2028. The index peaked at 47% in late 2025 following election uncertainty before settling to 39% after orderly special elections and failed politicized prosecutions.
How to Regulate Sports Prediction Markets
A conversation with ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen about better prices, market makers, advertising, age limits, and the CFTC’s foray into sports
Why Prediction Markets' Election Picks Are Useful, Even When They Seem Wrong
WaPo analyzes 1,276 Kalshi markets and 829 Polymarket markets across 344 primary races and finds prediction markets are well-calibrated: candidates given 70-80% probability win about as often as predicted. High-profile misses (Spencer Pratt in LA, Massie in KY) are not failures of the market but the expected 25% outcome in a properly…
Introducing: Yai Markets
Yai Capital announces Yai Markets, a DeFi-native prediction market infrastructure built on Solana targeting advanced traders and institutional liquidity providers. The post outlines three key innovations including synchronous crankless execution, atomic smart circuit breakers, and cross-protocol atomic hedging, positioning the platform…
CFTC Proposes Rules for Prediction Markets
Day One Law's weekly legal update for crypto builders covers the CFTC's June 10 proposed rules that would narrow the definition of prohibited event contracts to terrorism, gaming (narrowly defined), entirely random events, and specific sports micro-bets. Includes practical compliance guidance for prediction market builders during the…
Prediction Markets Are a Civilizational Upgrade
Mickey Hardy (Arcadia) argues prediction markets are not just better gambling but the next fundamental system for organizing human behavior — comparable to stock markets, insurance, and search engines — by converting probability itself into a measurable, allocatable asset. Covers applications across pharma, insurance, corporate…

The texture of AI dread
Anxiety around AI is materially triggered and existentially experienced.
The Ghosts of Polymarket: When Off-Chain Matches Meet On-Chain Reverts
Polymarket matches orders off-chain for speed but settles on-chain for finality. This paper identifies a consistency gap they call Ghost Fills — orders matched off-chain that fail during on-chain settlement.
The "Truth Machine" That Takes Your Money
Synthesizes four datasets — accuracy metrics, trader PnL, volume concentration, and skill classification — to reveal prediction markets' real structure: a 3% skilled minority drives the accuracy while 84% of traders lose money. A data-rich challenge to the 'wisdom of crowds' narrative.
I Figured Out How to Rig Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets
Investigates how easy it is to rig prediction markets on Rotten Tomatoes movie scores — a handful of compromised critics could swing scores enough to cash out on Kalshi. Chronicles multiple real insider trading cases: the Khai Rated critic who tanked Alien: Earth scores, the Maduro raid trader, MrBeast's video editor, the Google employee…
The Event Is the Market: Today Is a Turning Point for Prediction Markets
The CFTC's recent event contract proposal marks a turning point for prediction markets as a new financial asset class, argues Rashan Colbert. Legal classification will determine whether event contracts develop as gambling products or as legitimate event-risk infrastructure for institutions and protocols.
The DeFi Moment for Prediction Markets
Makes the case that prediction markets are hitting the same infrastructure wall DeFi faced in 2020, with the oracle layer as the bottleneck to further growth. Explains the risks of optimistic dispute resolution and how Chainlink's deterministic data streams and AI-hybrid oracles are reducing settlement times from hours to minutes.
Every Prediction Market Runs on One of Five Machines. Most Builders Picked the Wrong One.
Schema Research breaks down the five mechanisms powering every prediction market: LMSR, central limit order books, AMMs, bonding curves, and parimutuel pools. It explains the math behind each, their trade-offs, and how the strongest modern designs combine several mechanisms across different stages of a market's lifecycle.
The Explosive Growth of Prediction Markets Is a Symptom of a Deeply Sick Economy
Argues that the explosive growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reflects economic desperation and financial nihilism among young Americans, not innovation. Cites a Bloomberg analysis showing retail traders lost 31M while bots and institutional investors captured nearly all profits.
Solving the Gap in Prediction Market Liquidity: Passive Deposits, Order-Book Execution
XO Labs publishes the first in a planned series on XO Vaults, a passive liquidity design that bridges the gap between CLOB platforms and pooled liquidity in prediction markets. It analyses three existing liquidity models and identifies a structural gap: platforms with best execution have no passive product, while platforms with passive…
Evidence Markets
Hossain, Andrade, Zang, and Chen introduce evidence markets, a new mechanism that generalizes prediction markets to handle two limitations: prices reveal what the crowd believes but not why, and markets require external resolution events with known dates. The system uses a Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule with dynamic liquidity that…
Hedging That Needs Continuous Probability
Binary prediction markets struggle with continuous outcomes like oil prices because capital fragments across individual strike prices. This piece uses Polymarket's crude oil dataset to illustrate the staircase hedging problem.
Design and Evaluation of Multi-Agent AI Oracle Systems for Prediction Market Resolution
Evaluates whether multi-agent LLM architectures can resolve prediction market outcomes more accurately than single-model baselines. Tests independent aggregation and deliberative consensus against GPT-5 Nano, DeepSeek V3, and Llama-3.3-70B on 1,189 resolved questions from KalshiBench.
Polymarket Allows Market Manipulators to Extract Over $5M in Exploitative Profits
An on-chain investigation revealing how a single entity extracted over $5m from Polymarket's crypto markets using 350+ accounts. The piece walks through the manipulation mechanism — accumulating positions on Polymarket then moving Binance's BTC price during settlement windows — and traces the fund flow through Hyperliquid wallets to…
Do Liquidity Rewards on PMs Work? ... Only if They're Huge!
taetaehoho runs an empirical analysis of Polymarket's liquidity rewards and sponsorships, finding they can tighten spreads only when daily spend exceeds roughly 1% of the existing book. Even above that threshold, incentive size barely predicts which markets respond; pre-existing liquidity conditions and pre-trends are far stronger…

Value Is Not at Settlement
Itô Dialogues: an essay series on liquidity, belief, and what markets actually price
Orthogonal Precision in Trepa: A Tunable Second-Order Oracle for High-Frequency Forecasting
Analyzes Trepa's high-frequency forecasting contest on Solana and shows its current design (median error cutoff, steep accuracy weights) induces a Keynesian beauty contest equilibrium that underweights private information. Introduces the orthogonal precision multiplier, a mechanism that rewards accurate forecasts decorrelated from the…
Priced to Kill
Seva Gunitsky argues that prediction markets create three distinct dangers for global conflict: military insider trading at scale, manipulation of outcome resolution, and propaganda advantages for autocratic regimes. The article walks through real cases including the Israeli Air Force betting scandal and the 'hair dryer problem' — cases…
Where Are All the Decision Markets?
A clear-eyed diagnosis of why decision markets (futarchy) haven’t taken off despite the elegant theory. Identifies two structural problems: thin markets that can’t attract enough informed traders for idiosyncratic decisions, and a conditional-futures architecture where token-price-as-KPI is too noisy to incentivize rational trading.
Sportsbooks vs Prediction Markets
Compares spreads across DraftKings, FanDuel, Polymarket, and Kalshi on identical sports markets to isolate how counterparty identification versus maker competition affects pricing. Finds PM prices are 100-300 bps better on liquid markets but long-tail markets on prediction markets have 10-50% spreads.
A Game of Volatility
Analyzes Polymarket's short-duration crypto up/down markets, which now account for 16% of monthly volume but generate ~40% of platform fees. Finds professional algo traders (19 addresses) extract consistent profits through paired trading and maker execution while 69% of retail traders lose money.
Why Robinhood Will Eat Kalshi's Lunch
A detailed analysis of how Robinhood's distribution advantage—27 million funded users and cross-selling across stocks, options, crypto, and futures—gives it an existential edge over standalone prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Walks through Robinhood's Rothera JV (buying the exchange infrastructure), the economics…
Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting
Tests whether Polymarket forecasts for influenza hospitalizations and measles cases can beat established benchmarks. The markets fail to outperform the CDC FluSight ensemble for flu or simple ARIMA baselines for measles.
Prediction Market Perps
Makes the case that prediction market perpetuals are structurally different from crypto perps because event contracts lack a tradeable underlying, making most implementations liquidation arcades. Argues the winning path is building perps as institutional hedging infrastructure for continuous event-risk management rather than leveraged…
HIP-4 Is Not a Prediction Market
Breaks down Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome contracts as an onchain options layer rather than just another prediction market, comparing its unified margin engine, fee structure, and token value capture to Polymarket and Kalshi. Maps the design space for credit default swaps, parametric insurance, and futarchy that the primitive unlocks.

Why prediction markets are hard to regulate
The public discussion around the regulatory approach of prediction markets has been organized around binaries that obscure useful distinctions: markets versus gambling, free speech versus consumer protection, insider trading good versus bad.
A Second Identity: Prediction Markets as Financial Derivatives
DWF Ventures argues prediction markets are evolving into a financial derivatives asset class. The piece analyzes structural barriers to leverage and collateral lending: jump risk, binary valuation and regulatory uncertainty.

Kalshi’s Favorite Lie
They may not be your counterparty, but they still need you to lose
On Prediction Market Regulation
Robin Hanson responds to a CFTC call for comments by arguing prediction markets deserve the same regulatory treatment as other information institutions like journalism and academia. Drawing parallels between six common harms shared across all information systems, from insider trading to manipulation, he contends markets should be…
You Don't Hate Prediction Markets. You Hate Capitalism.
Defense of prediction markets that reframes the moral critique as a critique of capitalism itself. Litvin walks through the standard objections (gambling, insider trading, manipulation, slot-machine durations) and pairs each with a larger-scale analog in traditional finance: the $950M oil ceasefire trades on CME, LIBOR, accredited…
Binary Events V2: Does Liquidity Trade The Tails?
Follow-up to functionSPACE's V1 discretisation analysis, splitting Polymarket's 18,863 multi-market events into continuous (price brackets, weather ranges, margin percentages) versus categorical (teams, candidates) and re-running the pathology tests. Both types concentrate 90% of volume in the top 5-6 markets, but ghost markets turn out…
Legibility
Prediction markets make information legible in a way stocks and options do not. When someone bets big on an attack on Maduro, everyone immediately knows what the bet is about, unlike a stock price spike that could mean anything.
Prediction Markets In Q1 2026: 11 Insights Worth Knowing
Teaser thread for a 50+ page Q1 2026 prediction markets report. Claims the space did more volume in one quarter than all of 2025 combined, and distills 11 insights on scale, concentration, monetization, and the attention the category is drawing from institutions and regulators.
Predictions Are The New Expression
Long essay from the Bento.fun founder positioning prediction markets as the next stage in the history of expression: from print to radio to social media, each medium widened who could speak, but only markets demand that speakers bear consequence for being wrong. Pulls in Hayek on price as coordination, Taleb on skin in the game, and…
Good Forecasts, Bad Products
Argues forecasting accuracy has outpaced product design: a decade inside the US intelligence community produced zero complaints about forecast quality, yet forecasting firms remain niche while simulation startups Aaru and Simile raised nine-figure rounds. Diagnoses the gap as a failure to embed forecasts into institutional workflows, and…
The Hidden Risk Of Prediction Markets: 14 Resolution Failures That Cost $500M
Catalog of 14 resolution failures over 18 months at Polymarket and Kalshi affecting over $500M in volume, including the $242M Zelenskyy-suit market, the $120M TikTok ban, and the $47M Cardi B halftime market that resolved yes on Polymarket and no on Kalshi. Groups the failures into four patterns: vague criteria, decentralized oracle…
Prediction Markets: The Potential Multi-Trillion Dollar Asset Class Hiding In Plain Sight
ARK Invest sizes the prediction market opportunity at $1-5 trillion medium-term by benchmarking against global OTC derivative volumes. Argues that sports volumes are largely regulatory arbitrage from states without legal online sports betting and that the real disruption lies in event contracts unbundling risk from traditional…
The Problem With CLOBs
Argues that central limit order books fixed the capital destruction problem of early Polymarket AMMs but introduced a new pathology: passive participation is impossible, and only professional market makers can quote. Kalshi reportedly has 23 active market makers with the top three providing 70% of election-contract liquidity, meaning any…
Anatomy Of A New Asset Class I: How Markets Turn Capital Into Probability
Part 1 of a Ranger Global research series on onchain prediction market microstructure. Walks through why CLOBs beat constant-product AMMs for binary events, the YES/NO minting and merging invariant that lets depth expand whenever matched counterparties exist, and probability-scaled dynamic fees that shrink near 0 and 1.
The Prediction Market Epidemic: Who's Actually Winning
Skeptical counter to the democratizing-finance framing around prediction markets. Cites Polymarket data showing 70% of 1.7 million addresses lost money and that the top 0.04% captured over 70% of the $3.7B in realized profits, and argues the structure predictably funnels retail into informed counterparties (including platform-operated…
Market Making In PMs Sucks
Survey of recent research on why conventional market making fails in prediction markets. Covers cross-venue fragmentation (the same contract at 58-67 cents on different platforms), the January 2026 Polymarket XRP exploit that paid $231K on thin weekend liquidity, Kalshi's structural longshot bias, and evidence from 150M Polymarket trades…
Prediction Markets: They Grow Up So Fast
a16z's overview of institutional adoption of prediction markets, centered on Kalshi. Outlines a three-stage framework: using markets as data sources, integrating them into compliance workflows, and finally actively hedging risk.
From Betting to Trading: How Kalshi Is Reshaping Sports Markets
Data-driven analysis benchmarking Kalshi's sports markets against traditional sportsbooks. Kalshi's monthly volume grew 80x to $14.4B in March 2026, with NCAA March Madness generating $3.3B in notional volume comparable to total US wagered on the tournament.

Gambling, Drugs, and Porn: What I Learned at a Conference on Vice Policy
There's a thin line between personal choice and public harm
The Bane Of Binaries: What Prediction Markets Are Missing
Reframes prediction markets as consumer-wrapped binary options, drawing on the author's OTC commodity derivatives background. Introduces Minsky's 'vega wedge' as the structural overcharge that binary hedgers pay when they replicate via vanilla options (around 4.8% for BTC binaries, 7-20% for gold), and argues prediction markets can…
Why AMMs Failed Prediction Markets
Historical walkthrough of why LMSR-based automated market makers structurally failed for prediction markets. In a binary market that resolves to 0 or 1, impermanent loss becomes permanent: the pool inevitably holds worthless shares on the losing side, and trading fees cannot offset a guaranteed structural loss.
The Execution Layer Prediction Markets Need
Announces Lotus, an execution layer for prediction markets that aggregates fragmented liquidity across venues without owning any itself. The same events trade in isolated silos with different formats, resolution rules, and depth, producing poor price discovery and high slippage — the same problem DeFi DEXs faced before aggregators.
The Two Kinds of Prediction Markets
Applies the sportsbook industry's square vs. sharp distinction to prediction markets.
How Prediction Markets Are Blurring the Line Between Trading and Betting
Bloomberg Businessweek feature on the regulatory and cultural collision as prediction markets blur the boundary between financial trading and sports gambling. Covers how billions in volume have attracted enforcement actions from multiple states, insider trading concerns, and partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and major sports leagues.
Can Polymarket Make You a Better Equity Analyst?
Proposes a workflow for using prediction market probabilities as inputs to equity valuation models. Walks through two case studies: translating Polymarket's 51% tariff refund probability into a 35% effective probability for Logitech's margin impact, and converting a 29.5% FDA approval probability into a $5.4B probability-weighted EV…
Leverage in Prediction Markets
Landscape report comparing four models for adding leverage to prediction markets: lending pools (Gondor/Morpho-style), prime brokers (Ultramarkets), synthetic desks (CFD counterparties), and perpetual futures (dYdX TRUMPWIN). Sizes the fee revenue opportunity at $15M base case to $50.7M bull case, with 87% driven by financing revenue on…
Brazil: The Next Frontier for Prediction Markets
Market sizing report on Brazil as a prediction market opportunity. The country is simultaneously the 5th largest betting market ($4.1B GGR, 25M bettors) and 5th in crypto adoption ($6-8B monthly, 90% stablecoins), creating a $100B+ serviceable market with no domestic platform offering event trading mechanics.
Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket
The first comprehensive empirical look at who actually profits on Polymarket and who doesn’t. Analyzing 588 million trades and $67 billion in volume, the paper finds the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of profits through disciplined limit order strategies, while the bottom 90% lose money taking liquidity with market orders.
Parimutuel Prediction Markets
Traces the parimutuel betting model from its 1867 origins in French horse racing to modern prediction markets. Argues that parimutuel pools solve the cold start problem by bootstrapping liquidity without market makers, but identifies three friction points that need upgrading: locked positions, timing constraints, and price readability.
The Financialization of Uncertainty
Industry analysis mapping $63.5 billion in 2025 prediction market volume and a $200 billion+ 2026 run rate. Identifies a structural tension: sports drive current revenue (83% of Kalshi volume), but valuations price in an information infrastructure future that hasn't arrived yet.
States vs. Prediction Markets: The Fight Over the Meaning of 'Swap'
Breaks down the legal fight over whether sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, which would give the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempt state gambling laws. Courts are split across 19 pending federal lawsuits, with the Third Circuit ruling in Kalshi's favor.
Information Contagion
Traces how insider trades on Polymarket before Trump's March 2026 Iran announcement may have leaked into regulated oil and stock futures markets. Proposes that quant funds extracted the informational signal from pseudonymous crypto trades and acted on it in KYC-regulated venues, all without breaking existing laws.
Regulating Prediction Markets in Europe Requires a 'Prediction Test'
European regulators face a classification problem: prediction market contracts could be gambling, MiFID II derivatives, or something else entirely, and different Member States treat them differently. Proposes a structured 'Prediction Test' modeled on Malta's Financial Instrument Test for crypto-assets, which would systematically…
The Yes Bias Might Not Exist
Analyzes 7,292 resolved Polymarket markets and 28,793 on-chain trades to test whether yes bias exists in trade data. Finds that traders buy whichever token is cheaper, not whichever is labeled YES, and that the apparent bias is a compound effect of longshot preference channeled through Polymarket's "Will X happen?" question framing,…
Is Polymarket a Retail Product or a Pro Trading Venue?
Categorizes every active Polymarket wallet across trade frequency and volume tiers, producing a seven-persona map of platform participants. Finds that 2% of users (high-frequency, high-capital wallets) generate roughly 90% of all platform volume, with crypto markets dominated by algorithmic execution and politics markets driven by casual…
How Prediction Markets Can Ascend
Frames prediction market prices as public goods whose benefits are non-excludable but whose liquidity costs fall on a narrow trader base. Proposes cross-subsidization as the growth mechanism: profitable markets fund socially valuable ones that can't sustain themselves, the same way newspaper ads funded investigative journalism.
From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets
Screens 93,000 Polymarket markets and flags traders with a 69.9% win rate, more than 60 standard deviations above chance, estimating $143 million in anomalous profits. Documents specific cases from geopolitical events to celebrity announcements where wallets appear to trade on material non-public information.
The World's Biggest Risk Event Just Exposed Prediction Markets' Biggest Gap
Uses the March 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis to argue that binary order-book prediction markets hit an architectural ceiling when pricing granular, multi-outcome risk. Compares how traditional options solve this for tradable assets, then explains how automated market scoring rules (LMSR/CLMSR) offer protocol-native liquidity, coherent…
Prediction Markets and Implied Correlation
Introduces implied correlation as a trading opportunity in prediction markets. Polymarket currently prices a 60%+ chance of 5% unemployment this year alongside only a 10% chance of aggressive Fed rate cuts, even though every historical episode of that unemployment spike triggered an average of seven cuts.
Prediction Markets Have a Semantic Tick Size
Analyzes 600 million Polymarket orderbook datapoints, finding ~70% of one-cent price moves do not continue in the same direction. Coins 'semantic tick size' to describe how a prediction market's minimum price increment doubles as a narrative unit—each penny reads as a one-percentage-point probability change, creating overreactions that a…
Can LLMs Beat the Market?
Asks whether large language models can outperform prediction market consensus prices and argues the more tractable framing is using LLMs as updaters rather than predictors. Distinguishes cold prediction (generating a probability estimate without prior context) from updating (revising an existing estimate as new information arrives), and…
Discovery and Betrayal: Insiders in Prediction Markets
Sets out to defend insider trading in prediction markets but arrives at a more conditional position. Introduces a 'discovery vs betrayal' framework: in distributed-truth markets like elections, informed traders sharpen the signal because no one holds the full answer; in concentrated-truth markets like earnings, insiders monetize sealed…
Prediction Markets and Insider Trading Law
Congressional Research Service legal sidebar analyzing whether and how insider trading law applies to prediction markets. Walks through SEC Rule 10b-5, CFTC Rule 180.1, the STOCK Act, and Title 18 criminal statutes, then examines the CFTC's February 2026 advisory on two Kalshi enforcement actions.

Who Wants to Bet on the Oscars?
On the wisdom of crowds, and those who profit from it
The Economy of Truth: Inside the Decentralized Courtroom of Polymarket & UMA
Walks through UMA's Optimistic Oracle pipeline as used by Polymarket: assertion, liveness period, dispute, and DVM token-holder voting. Uses the $240M Zelenskyy suit market as a case study where semantic ambiguity ('Is a militarized black outfit a suit?') triggered a disputed resolution ultimately decided by whale token holders,…
Polymarket Is a Hidden MEV Playground. Most Traders Have No Idea.
Identifies five MEV-style edges on Polymarket that most retail traders are unaware of: oracle latency arbitrage (trading on news before UMA oracle updates), resolution arbitrage (front-running outcome settlement), dispute sniping (gaming the UMA dispute process), orderbook imbalance exploitation, and conditional probability arbitrage…
Noisy Traders Are Not Dumb Money
Challenges the smart-versus-dumb money dichotomy in prediction markets by synthesizing research from Snowberg/Wolfers/Zitzewitz, INSEAD's BIN model, and Wharton's cognitive search framework. Argues that noisy traders fund the probability space rather than serve as exit liquidity, and compares how binary CLOBs versus continuous…
You Can't Make It Without Betting Anymore
He pushes the boulder. It rolls back.
Are Prediction Markets Decaying or Evolving?
Traces the history of prediction markets from 1419 Vatican papal elections through the Iowa Electronic Markets to the Polymarket era, arguing the sector is at an inflection point. Surveys the insider trading scandals (Musk tweets, French elections), moral hazard concerns (assassination markets), and the wave of new entrants (Robinhood,…
Federal Preemption in Sports Prediction Market Litigation: This Shouldn't Be a Jump Ball
Written by a former CFTC General Counsel, argues that courts in sports event contract litigation are overlooking the strongest basis for CFTC jurisdiction: the Commodity Exchange Act's 'commonly known to the trade' catchall, which classifies any transaction the derivatives industry calls a swap as one. Since every exchange, broker, and…
Seeing Like a Market: Event Contracts and Market Topology
Quantifies when prediction markets become structurally cheaper than derivatives for pricing binary institutional risk. Analyzes 87 contracts across 11 categories and finds that high-VRP categories like Bitcoin (4.83%) and elections already cross the displacement threshold, while FOMC markets compressed from a 12 percentage point cost gap…
Prediction Markets Are the Future of Advertising
Argues that prediction markets will replace traditional advertising by converting ad spend into liquidity that rewards deep attention rather than buying fleeting impressions. The proposed model: a sponsor seeds a market with $50k–$500k, traders discover it and research the topic to profit, then share analysis organically — creating…
On War Markets
Written during the US-Israel strikes on Iran, examines whether prediction markets on armed conflicts are net informational goods or perverse incentive engines. Dissects the IDF insider trading case where soldiers traded Polymarket positions before strikes, the CFTC's regulatory stance, and the divergent approaches of Kalshi (regulated,…
How Wise Is the Crowd? Bias and Edge in Prediction Markets
Analyzes tick-level order flow across Polymarket and Kalshi to decompose market bias by trader type. Finds that the classic favorite-longshot bias may be a statistical artifact masking a pervasive "yes bias" driven by temporal volatility and incomplete controls for contract lifecycle.
Polymarket Is Not a Casino. Why Prediction Markets Are Finance, Not Gambling
Argues that prediction markets are financial instruments, not gambling, by examining Polymarket's architecture across multiple layers: peer-to-peer order book mechanics, information aggregation through skin-in-the-game pricing, hedging use cases, and UX design that suppresses gambling patterns. Contrasts the exchange model with the…
Decomposing Crowd Wisdom: Domain-Specific Calibration Dynamics in Prediction Markets
Fits a Bayesian hierarchical model to 292 million trades across 327,000 contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket to decompose calibration errors into structured components: universal horizon effects, domain-specific biases, and trade-size scale effects, which together explain 87.3% of variance on Kalshi. Finds persistent underconfidence in…
The 7 Axes of Prediction Markets
Identifies seven axes on which new prediction market entrants can differentiate: product quality, asset variety, capital efficiency, oracle reliability, liquidity provision, regulatory compliance, and vertical vs. horizontal strategy.
How to Solve Insider Trading in Prediction Markets
Argues that insider trading in prediction markets is structurally different from traditional securities markets because prediction markets can make almost anything tradable, often in contexts where relevant confidentiality duties are unclear. Proposes solutions across three layers: platform-level detection and position limits scaled to…
Why Prediction Markets Aren't Gambling? (The Math)
Provides a quantitative framework for distinguishing gambling from systematic trading on prediction markets, including a five-point diagnostic and three trader archetypes classified by profitability. Explains why Polymarket's CLOB creates renewable structural arbitrage by design, and covers Kelly position sizing, adverse selection…
How Prediction Markets Turn Into Risk Instruments
Argues prediction markets are evolving a second layer analogous to derivatives built on stock exchanges. Covers three hedging use cases: crypto risk hedging via binary price markets, attention markets (Trendle) as sentiment hedges against binary positions, and cross-platform hedging enabled by DeFi composability (Gondor lending against…
Thoughts on the Law of Insider Trading and Prediction Markets
Legal analysis explaining that insider trading in prediction markets is governed by existing fraud law rather than a distinct insider trading statute. The key question is whether a trader has deceptively breached an implied or explicit promise about how confidential information may be used.
How Prediction Market Traders Reinvented the Bond
FT Alphaville piece documenting the practice of 'bonding' in prediction markets: treating near-certain outcomes as synthetic zero-coupon bonds to earn a small but near-guaranteed yield. Uses the Polymarket 'Will Jesus Christ return' market as the central example, where betting 'No' at 96% odds implies a 4.76% yield to maturity.
All Types of Arbitrage on Prediction Markets
Catalogs eight distinct arbitrage strategies available on prediction markets: classic YES+NO mispricing, cross-platform, range, conditional, time, hedged, resolution, and orderflow arbitrage. Each type includes concrete examples with dollar amounts and specific risk factors to watch for.
The Super Bowl of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket's Battle for Price vs Liquidity
Compares Kalshi and Polymarket's NFL game markets during the 2025 season. Finds Kalshi reprices faster (median 7-second lead) while Polymarket has deeper liquidity requiring 3-4x more volume to move prices comparably.
Forecasting Future Language: Context Design for Mention Markets
This paper studies how to design input context for LLMs to forecast mention market outcomes, where contracts resolve based on whether a company mentions a specified keyword during its earnings call. The authors introduce Market-Conditioned Prompting (MCP), which treats the market price as a Bayesian prior and instructs the LLM to update…
LLM as a Risk Manager: LLM Semantic Filtering for Lead-Lag Trading in Prediction Markets
Proposes a two-stage screener that uses Granger causality to find lead-lag pairs across Kalshi Economics markets, then passes candidates through an LLM that checks whether the proposed direction has a plausible economic transmission mechanism based on event descriptions. The LLM re-ranker barely moves the win rate (51.4% to 54.5%), but…
Prediction Market Biases Revealed in 72 Million Trades
Summarizes research analyzing 72 million Kalshi trades. Identifies three persistent biases: longshot bias (5c contracts win only 4.18% of the time), maker-taker asymmetry (makers outperform at 80 of 99 price levels), and YES/NO asymmetry (YES buyers average -1.02% returns vs +0.83% for NO buyers).
Prediction Markets as an Asset Class
Argues prediction markets are becoming a legitimate asset class with potentially the largest TAM, since anything with uncertainty and future resolution is tradable. Notes the category has reached an inflection point with professionals entering, but lacks proper tooling that mature asset classes have (Bloomberg for stocks, Axiom for…
Prediction Markets' Next Frontier: Impact and Decision Markets
Argues prediction markets' next phase involves Impact Markets (pricing assets conditional on events, e.g., 'BTC price if Fed cuts 75bp') and Decision Markets (using conditional valuations to automate governance). Claims Impact Markets enable true economic hedging by collapsing multi-step inference into direct price discovery.
The Nielsen Moment for Prediction Markets
Draws a parallel between prediction markets and Nielsen ratings to argue that coordination value matters more than accuracy. Points to Polymarket's Golden Globes and WSJ partnerships and Kalshi's CNN deal as signs that prediction markets are shifting from external forecasting tools to embedded institutional infrastructure.
The Council Trades: What Happens When AI Agents Bet Against Each Other
Spartan Labs explores what happens when you give Andrej Karpathy's LLM Council design actual stakes. Their Simmer prototype runs 30 AI agents across 6 models and 5 reasoning personas in an LMSR market, producing a capital-weighted forecast without requiring human liquidity.
Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets
An academic paper from Stanford and Singapore Management University studying how prediction market participants can manipulate the settlement process itself — the mechanism by which outcome data feeds into market resolution. Extends the manipulation literature beyond the trading phase to examine oracle-level attacks, where traders profit…
Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets through the Derivatives Lens: Evidence from Kalshi and Polymarket
An academic paper that examines cryptocurrency prediction markets through the lens of derivatives pricing, using trade data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Treats event contracts as option-like claims and analyzes their prices for variance risk premia, volatility patterns, and skewness — asking how much of a prediction market price reflects…
Thursday links: Prediction markets, agent hackers, quantum risks
Anthropic researchers report that their AI agents successfully exploited 56% of vulnerable smart contracts

There Are Too Many Problem(atic) Gamblers
The Prevention Paradox, and why focusing on addicts misses the point

In 2024, Americans Legally Bet $148 Billion and Lost $13.7 Billion. Both Numbers Matter.
Expected value is tidy, actual results are messy

The filter is the product
For the creator economy to thrive in an increasingly noisy environment, it needs the curator economy, a symbiotic layer dedicated to filtering.

NBA Players are Betting on Themselves and Cheating at Poker
Decoding the recent FBI investigations

Smartphone Gambling is a Disaster
We aren’t meant to have a casino in our pocket

Upgrading the operating system of money
Why patching the old financial grid misses the point and what a crypto-native alternative could look like.

AI is already replacing us
You're Overpriced and You Don't Know It
Coming soon
This is ITO RESEARCH.

Prediction markets can't agree on the truth
Why I think the prediction market landscape will be fragmented

Can Kaito 'Yaps' avoid the curse of Goodhart’s law?
"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" - Charles Goodhart

Axelar
Why is Axelar best positioned to capture value in a modular interoperability stack, and how can the Axelar Virtual Machine unlock an interchain future?

Winning the wallet war: 3 essential frameworks for builders and investors
As the competition heats up, which web3 wallet stands tall? Three frameworks to assess the landscape.






