CBOECboe Global Markets$300.74 2.25%·NEWSTrump National Emergency Before the Midterms? The Prediction…·RESEARCHPrediction markets are betting on natural disasters. Where do…·NEWSJoe Burrow Leads Kalshi Quarterback Market to Throw for Over…·NEWSAshley Moody becomes stronger Polymarket bet after Angie Nixon…·REGULATORYKalshi off-limits in multiple states as prediction markets,…·REGULATORYRep. Baumgartner pushes ban on wildfire gambling on Polymarket,…·NEWSGoogle information security engineer charged with using inside…·REGULATORYCME vs Kalshi: the prediction market fight that just went…·REGULATORYKalshi challenges WA ruling·NEWSKalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations·NEWSKalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations -…·NEWSYordan Álvarez Extends AL MVP Lead on Kalshi Prediction Market·CBOECboe Global Markets$300.74 2.25%·NEWSTrump National Emergency Before the Midterms? The Prediction…·RESEARCHPrediction markets are betting on natural disasters. Where do…·NEWSJoe Burrow Leads Kalshi Quarterback Market to Throw for Over…·NEWSAshley Moody becomes stronger Polymarket bet after Angie Nixon…·REGULATORYKalshi off-limits in multiple states as prediction markets,…·REGULATORYRep. Baumgartner pushes ban on wildfire gambling on Polymarket,…·NEWSGoogle information security engineer charged with using inside…·REGULATORYCME vs Kalshi: the prediction market fight that just went…·REGULATORYKalshi challenges WA ruling·NEWSKalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations·NEWSKalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations -…·NEWSYordan Álvarez Extends AL MVP Lead on Kalshi Prediction Market·
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Saturday, 22 August 2026
NEWStech-insider.org

Trump National Emergency Before the Midterms? The Prediction Market Sitting at 28% tech-insider.org

RESEARCHModern Ghana
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi lists Joe Burrow as a top QB to throw for over 4,000 yards in the 2026 NFL season.

NEWSFlorida Politics

Ashley Moody becomes stronger Polymarket bet after Angie Nixon nomination Florida Politics

REGULATORYCoinDesk

Kalshi off-limits in multiple states as prediction markets, CFTC team up for battle CoinDesk

REGULATORYThe Seattle Times

Rep. Baumgartner pushes ban on wildfire gambling on Polymarket, Kalshi The Seattle Times

NEWSABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Google information security engineer charged with using inside information to make $1M on Polymarket ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

REGULATORYCrypto News

CME vs Kalshi: the prediction market fight that just went personal at the CFTC Crypto News

REGULATORYNonStop Local KHQ

Kalshi challenges WA ruling NonStop Local KHQ

NEWSThe Seattle Times

Kalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations The Seattle Times

NEWSThe Spokesman-Review

Kalshi pushes back against order to halt most WA operations The Spokesman-Review

Friday, 21 August 2026
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi continues to strengthen Yordan Alvarez's price to win the AL MVP.

RESEARCHYellow.com

Kalshi Study Finds Prediction Markets Work Best When Traders Crowd In Yellow.com

NEWSSports Illustrated

Deshaun Watson is pulling away on Kalshi to win the Cleveland Browns starting QB job over Shedeur Sanders.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

A spat at a CFTC meeting, an insider trading controversy bubbling up around horse racing, and a sports betting editor setting a fine example make headlines. When we’re talking next month about football driving billions of dollars through prediction markets during the exchange’s first real season in business, Novig will be among the…

DEALSYahoo Sports

What the Lazio-Polymarket Split Reveals About Football Sponsorship Rules in Italy Yahoo Sports

REGULATORYKIRO 7 News Seattle

VIDEO: Kalshi challenges Washington court order KIRO 7 News Seattle

REGULATORYKOMO

Kalshi asks King County judge to reconsider Washington injunction on event contracts KOMO

NEWSYahoo Finance

CME, Kalshi Leaders Clash Over Prediction Market Regulation Yahoo Finance

NEWSBusiness Insider

The Prediction Markets Are Catching on With Wall Street Interns Business Insider

NEWSMarketWatch

States are coming after prediction markets — and setting up a costly legal battle over who gets to regulate them MarketWatch

NEWSMississippi Today

Prediction markets, facing no Mississippi regulations, are targeting college campuses, policy expert warns Mississippi Today

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Says Washington Limits Unfair Since Rival Can Operate Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The no-cash-deposit prediction platform is targeting 200 million users by 2030. SafeBets is leaning on sports and politics to exponentially broaden its audience, while it expects financial market forecasts to be the key value driver of its trading model.

RESEARCHInternational Business Times UK

152 Wallets on Trump Jr.-Linked Polymarket Made $8M Betting on US Military Moves With 97% Win Rate International Business Times UK

RESEARCHWBAY

Prediction market company sues Wisconsin attorney general WBAY

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

As President Trump called on Congress to pass the stalled Clarity Act, Better Markets’ policy director Amanda Fischer predicted the bill to regulate cryptocurrency will ultimately fail and states and tribes will prevail over prediction markets. On the same day that President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act during a…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Federal appeals are taking on a larger role in the prediction market fight, while the CFTC is moving toward new rules for the sector. Prediction market disputes continued to shift toward federal appeals courts this week, as Kalshi sought relief from state enforcement and Crypto.com agreed to await a Ninth Circuit ruling that could shape…

NEWSthestreet.com

A watchdog group traced $8M in longshot bets that landed right before U.S. strikes on Iran.

PEOPLEResponsible Statecraft

'Orcas' with likely inside info win big on Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket Responsible Statecraft

NEWSSacramento Bee

A warning for your college teen: Beware addictive prediction markets | Opinion Sacramento Bee

DATAYahoo Finance

Kalshi’s Crypto Perpetual Futures Reach $17.98 Million Open Interest Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYThe Edge Malaysia

CME CEO spars with CFTC chair about need to regulate prediction market The Edge Malaysia

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: What we learned about prediction markets from the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee; Kalshi starts blocking users in Washington state.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

While some executives praised the CFTC’s oversight, others questioned its approach to self-certification and whether some contracts should be offered at all. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig outlined a new regulatory roadmap for prediction markets Thursday, as industry executives debated manipulation risks,…

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Banning Political Prediction Markets Would Be Unconstitutional Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYFortune

A possible circuit split could determine whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling rules.

REGULATORYDeFi Rate

CFTC Readies Prediction Market Rules as Innovation Advisory Committee Weighs Market Limits, Consumer Safeguards DeFi Rate

NEWScbs8.com

When is a bet not a bet? Prediction markets spark legal battle in California cbs8.com

NEWSCNBC

Novig CEO on why sports prediction markets are 'more fair' than traditional sports betting CNBC

NEWSDecrypt

Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced Decrypt

NEWSThe Journal Record

More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets The Journal Record

REGULATORYBloomberg

The head of CME Group Inc. told the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that the agency needed to do more to prevent manipulation on prediction markets as the trading startups grow into multibillion-dollar businesses.

REGULATORYCNBC

CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee meeting addresses emerging prediction market risks CNBC

NEWSKREM

Baumgartner bill would ban wildfire betting on prediction markets KREM

NEWSYahoo Finance

Kalshi Starts Restricting Access to Sports Prediction Markets in Washington State Yahoo Finance

Thursday, 20 August 2026
REGULATORYThe Block

A CFTC ommittee meeting exposed a sharp divide between the worlds of traditional finance and prediction market platforms.

NEWSDecrypt

Tensions Flare as CME, Kalshi Execs Clash Over Prediction Markets in DC Decrypt

REGULATORYBitcoin World

CME CEO And CFTC Chairman Clash Over Prediction Market Oversight Bitcoin World

NEWSBloomberg

Watch Robinhood CEO Tenev on Crypto Rules and Prediction Markets Bloomberg

DEALSFOX Sports

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Platform is Best for the New EPL Season? FOX Sports

RESEARCHCrypto Briefing

Kalshi releases largest study on prediction markets’ reliability Crypto Briefing

REGULATORYthehill.com

The head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) vowed Thursday to “move swiftly” on establishing rules for the cryptocurrency market if Congress fails to pass legislation on the matter this year. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said at a meeting with crypto and prediction market executives that the agency stands “ready to begin…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Prediction market startup ADI Predictstreet, which, seemingly out of nowhere, became a FIFA partner, values its network in the billions. But Gambling Insider’s investigation reveals a venue that earns just ~$7,000 in daily fees, settles in someone else’s dollar, and answers to three keyholders it has not identified.

RESEARCHcalcalistech.com

Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran put Polymarket’s military betting problem in focus calcalistech.com

NEWSABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Soldier charged over Polymarket trades seeks dismissal ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

NEWSTrade Show News Network

NEXTPredict Bets $12K on Kalshi to Protect $3M Conference from Flight Chaos Trade Show News Network

VENTUREBloomberg Law News

NYSE Owner Says Firm to Look at Polymarket’s New Funding Round Bloomberg Law News

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi predicts Arsenal winning its second straight Premier League title. Both Man City and Man United are trending down.

RESEARCHTruthdig

What Are the Chances: The Unlikely Mainstreaming of Prediction Markets Truthdig

REGULATORYBloomberg

Robinhood co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev says clearer, more permanent crypto rules would give investors confidence that regulations won't shift with changing administrations. Speaking with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington, DC, Tenev says that prediction markets will survive regardless of…

REGULATORYBetter Markets

Crypto Companies and Prediction Markets are Advising the CFTC Better Markets

RESEARCHBenzinga

Elon Musk Says Starship Reuse Is Near After Years of Delays: What Do Prediction Markets Say? Benzinga

REGULATORYPR Newswire

ProphetX CEO Urges CFTC to Preserve Two-Sided Exchanges in Sports Prediction Markets PR Newswire

RESEARCHYahoo Finance

Trump Praises Prediction Markets as Report Finds Traders Made $8 Million on Suspicious Military Bets Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYReadWrite

CFTC prediction market rules face legal threats - Better Markets ReadWrite

NEWSMile High Sports

How Does Polymarket Work: A Beginner’s Guide to Trading Sports on Polymarket Mile High Sports

NEWSKPBS

San Diego County Supervisors pass 'anti-corruption' restrictions tied to prediction markets, lobbying KPBS

RESEARCHCryptonews.net

Study Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets for Possible Insider Bets Using Nonpublic U.S. Military Data Cryptonews.net

REGULATORYthehill.com

Alina Habba, the president's former personal attorney, ruled herself out as a candidate for White House press secretary as speculation swirls about whom President Trump will pick to replace Karoline Leavitt. "Flattered by the Kalshi odds, but I’m not in the running for any job," Habba wrote in a social media post on Wednesday,…

RESEARCHBenzinga

Trump Praises Prediction Markets As $8M Military Bet Profits Flagged - Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:IC Benzinga

RESEARCHTradingView

Polymarket Faces Fresh Insider Trading Scrutiny After 152 Wallets Allegedly Made $8 Million Betting on US Military Markets: Report TradingView

NEWSSports Illustrated

Chelsea and Manchester United are trending towards fourth place in the Premier League on Kalshi.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Malik Nabers is trending up on Kalshi for a return in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

NEWSReuters

EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds Reuters

REGULATORYEuropean Gaming

Denmark blocks Polymarket and 97 other sites in unlicensed gambling sweep European Gaming

REGULATORYNational Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)

Election Betting Is Banned in Most States. Will Prediction Markets Change That?

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: Kalshi embraces institutional trading; betting on the fattest bear in Alaska; BTC price discovery

REGULATORYWPR

Prediction market firm sues Kaul to prevent enforcement of Wisconsin gambling law WPR

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee holds its first meeting Thursday, with prediction markets on the agenda. Seven of its 35 members run companies at the center of the event-contract fight the agency is waging against nine state governments.

NEWSPYMNTS.com

Cantor Fitzgerald Enters Prediction Markets Space With Kalshi PYMNTS.com

NEWSCantor Fitzgerald

Cantor Commences Institutional Block Trading in Prediction Markets Cantor Fitzgerald

REGULATORYWisconsin Examiner

Prediction market firm sues to escape Wisconsin gambling law Wisconsin Examiner

NEWSrgj.com

Battle between Kalshi, Nevada over geofencing order heats up rgj.com

RESEARCHX @_drNeyo

Two prediction market startups — Trepa and Fireplace — shut down within 90 minutes of each other in the sector's best year ever, as Kalshi and Polymarket absorbed 93.3% of volume. The postmortem's core argument: prediction markets behave like exchanges, not products, where liquidity begets liquidity and winner-take-most is the natural…

Wednesday, 19 August 2026
NEWSDecrypt

Kalshi Pushes Beyond Prediction Markets With Copper Perpetual Futures Decrypt

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Kalshi has asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to approve perpetual futures tied to a U.S. large-cap stock index and the price of copper, extending its push from prediction markets into mainstream financial products.

NEWSReuters

Cantor launches prediction market trading for institutional investors Reuters

NEWSForbes

Mystery Polymarket Millionaire Bets $179,000 Iran Nuclear Talks Will Fail This Year Forbes

NEWSAd Age

Watch the newest commercials from Estée Lauder, America’s Best, Kalshi and more Ad Age

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Cantor Joins Brokers Offering Access to Kalshi Prediction Market Bloomberg Law News

NEWSeFinancialCareers

A niche academic team at quant hedge fund AQR is now trading on prediction markets eFinancialCareers

NEWSWillamette Week

Kalshi Hires Oregon Lobbyists and Gives Rayfield $12,500 Willamette Week

REGULATORYncsl.org
REGULATORYlatimes.com

Polymarket bets on 2025 L.A. wildfires show just how ugly the online gambling market can be latimes.com

NEWSBenzinga Prediction Markets
NEWSBloomberg

Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. is giving Wall Street clients access to Kalshi’s prediction markets, in the latest push by the event bets exchange to encourage more institutional involvement in the burgeoning asset class.

REGULATORYthehill.com

Predication market officials will not attend a White House event Wednesday that will feature cryptocurrency and other tech leaders. President Trump "will host an event with tech leaders tomorrow to strengthen America's innovative and technological dominance,” a White House official told Politico.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Why is ADI Predictstreet so guarded about its connections to International Holding Company (IHC) and the Abu Dhabi royal family? That’s the question we have been seeking answers to over the past couple of weeks.

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWScnbc.com

Hedge funds are about to jump into prediction markets in a big way cnbc.com

REGULATORYthehill.com

President Trump announced late Tuesday he would pause the 50 percent tariffs on many Canadian goods for three days, saying the U.S. and Canada are finalizing a deal.

RESEARCHIredell Free News

Prediction Markets Face Growing State Pushback as US Gambling’s Mood Changes Iredell Free News

NEWSThe New Republic

The Legal War Over Prediction Markets Is Getting Crazier The New Republic

NEWSWSJ

Exclusive | Cantor Lets Hedge Funds Place Big Bets on Kalshi’s Prediction Markets WSJ

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: Kalshi files for perps tied to equity indexes, early returns from Novig launch and NFL preseason trading

REGULATORYIAG – Inside Asian Gaming

Korea’s media regulator votes to block prediction platform Polymarket IAG – Inside Asian Gaming

REGULATORYHartford Business Journal

Kalshi asks appeals court to block CT gambling enforcement Hartford Business Journal

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Polymarket US began processing multi-leg sports contracts on Aug. 5 through an API-only beta that never surfaced in its consumer app.

REGULATORYBeInCrypto

Kalshi Brings Crypto’s Perpetual Futures Model to Stocks With CFTC Filing BeInCrypto

REGULATORYThe Block

Kalshi has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer perps tied to the MerQube US Large Cap Index and copper.

NEWSPOLITICO Pro

Article | White House: Prediction market companies won't be part of Wednesday gathering POLITICO Pro

NEWSYahoo Finance

Can Prediction Markets Power Coinbase Global's Next Phase of Growth? Yahoo Finance

NEWSYahoo Sports

Why Pro Sports Teams Are Holding Back on Prediction Market Deals Yahoo Sports

Tuesday, 18 August 2026
REGULATORYCasino.org

Polymarket Testing Parlays, er Combos, Ahead of Football Season Casino.org

VENTUREBloomberg

Yesha Yadav, professor of law and associate dean at Vanderbilt Law School joins Scarlet Fu and Dushyant Shahrawat on "Bloomberg Crypto." They discuss the growth of prediction markets, regulation, and Kalshi's $40 billion valuation. (Source: Bloomberg)

REGULATORYConduit Street Blog

Baltimore City Sues Prediction Markets Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting Conduit Street Blog

RESEARCHLAist

Mark Walter and Lakers ownership battle, prediction markets in elections, Jewish identity and more LAist

DEALSFishDuck

Novig Rolls Out Responsible-Trading Rules Amid Gen Z Betting Boom FishDuck

NEWSqz.com

Kalshi files for equity index and copper perpetual futures qz.com

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

South Korea Blocks Polymarket Over Gambling Concerns Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Former Cuomo aide says New York should start taxing Kalshi and other prediction market operators. SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY – The story of the year in gambling has been the legal fight between federally regulated prediction markets that offer contracts on sporting events and states that claim the exchanges are illegal sportsbooks.

DEALSCovers.com

Kalshi Partners with Live-Streaming Supplier Catalist Sports for Tennis, Soccer Enhancements Covers.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The sports-focused exchange reported significant early trading activity as it simultaneously fights regulators in five states. Novig generated more than $125 million in notional trading volume during the first week of its federally regulated prediction market, providing an early indication of demand for the former sportsbook and…

NEWSBarron's

Kalshi Readies Perpetual Futures Tied to Stock Indexes Barron's

RESEARCHIredell Free News

Wealthsimple to Add Politics, Sports at Its Prediction Markets? Iredell Free News

DEALSAsia Gaming Brief (AGB)

Catalist Sports powers next phase of prediction markets growth with Kalshi partnership Asia Gaming Brief (AGB)

NEWSYahoo Finance

Bitcoin Prediction 2026: What Kalshi’s Betting Markets Say Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYCNBC

The company is seeking to launch a "US500" perp tied to the MerQube U.S. Large Cap Index, according to a regulatory filing.

NEWSCryptoProwl
REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Self-reported gambling has fallen sharply over the past decade, but prediction markets and a wide gap between phone and online responses complicate the picture. Are Americans actually gambling less, or are traditional surveys increasingly struggling to capture how Americans gamble?

NEWSqz.com

Novig posts $125 million in first-week sports prediction market volume qz.com

REGULATORYyogonet.com

Nevada Problem Gambling Council to cut ties with NCPG over Kalshi partnership yogonet.com

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi dropped Arch Manning's Heisman price after Texas' first scrimmage.

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Tampa Bay Rays are catching up to the New York Yankees on Kalshi's American League market.

NEWSReuters

Kalshi files for S&P 500 perpetual futures in challenge to traditional exchanges Reuters

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi's price for Aaron Donald unretiring spikes after his second workout with the Los Angeles Rams.

REGULATORYtradingview.com

Kalshi Says It Has Filed With The US CFTC For Equity Index Perpetuals tradingview.com

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Los Angeles Dodgers World Series price on Kalshi dropped with their recent struggles.

DATACNBC

Prediction markets entrant Novig posts more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week CNBC

M&ABenzinga

Elon Musk to Merge SpaceX and Tesla? Prediction Markets Are Betting on This Date Benzinga

NEWSFederal News Network

Latest Prediction Markets for Which Party Will Win the Senate Federal News Network

NEWSCoinDesk
RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: Polymarket US is finally testing parlays heading into football season; election betting raises concerns about midterms.

REGULATORYFocus Gaming News

Nevada regulator seeks $120,000 daily fines against Kalshi Focus Gaming News

NEWSchicagobusiness.com

Terry Duffy on why CME is opting out of sports prediction markets chicagobusiness.com

REGULATORYktnv.com

Kalshi reps claim Nevada gaming regulators violated federal law ktnv.com

RESEARCHCBS Sports

What NFL prediction markets say about Anthony Richardson: How likely is a trade from the Colts? CBS Sports

Monday, 17 August 2026
NEWSNevada Current

Kalshi and NV Gaming Control Board spar over geolocation mandate Nevada Current

NEWSAdam Feldman | Substack

Prediction Markets’ Next Big Bet Is in the Appeals Courts Adam Feldman | Substack

NEWSbipartisanpolicy.org

Unpacking Tax Uncertainties for Prediction Markets bipartisanpolicy.org

NEWSStartupHub.ai

Trading Pop Culture & Corporate Markets on Polymarket: Avoiding Insider Crushes StartupHub.ai

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

While Kalshi continues to sustain legal defeats, Pennsylvania lawmakers are pushing to regulate prediction markets within state borders. It wouldn’t tax.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Markets Face New Legal Threats: California Brief Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Fresh court pressure on the CFTC, new geofencing deadlines and another wave of July betting data headline the week ahead. Prediction markets remain the biggest gambling story on the industry’s radar, with court developments, Washington meetings, geofencing battles and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) activity all shaping the…

NEWSBenzinga Prediction Markets
REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Kalshi says Nevada investigators misrepresented their residence and “actively worked to circumvent” restrictions that blocked them from trading after the Aug. 12 deadline.

DEALSsigma.world

Lazio and Polymarket: partnership ends after months of controversy sigma.world

NEWSdecrypt
REGULATORYQuartz
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi hints that Carlos Alcaraz will miss the US Open on his return market.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The CFTC “lacks the authority to dictate an order that conflicts with this Court’s decision,” according to the denial. A Connecticut judge has denied Kalshi’s emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal, rejecting the company’s attempt to use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) “market emergency” order in New York to…

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: Nevada wants court to make Kalshi pay fines; report says Israeli Air Force officer arrested for alleged Polymarket bets.

NEWSWIRED

Election Officials Are Preparing for Prediction Markets to Sow Chaos in the Midterms WIRED

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Markets Face New Threat in Consumer Protection Suits Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYStartup Fortune

Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Unlicensed Sports Betting Startup Fortune

Sunday, 16 August 2026
REGULATORYThe Block

Novig, which recently announced a partnership with the New York Mets, has sued officials in five states including Wisconsin since Aug. 4.

NEWSBeInCrypto
RESEARCHTimes of San Diego

'You can’t predict fire. But you can trade on it' – Senators warn prediction market activity on wildfires could encourage arson Times of San Diego

REGULATORYAltcoin Buzz

Kalshi faces $36B threat as CFTC defends prediction market Altcoin Buzz

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi has markets open for conference realignment featuring Miami, Florida State, and Clemson,

REGULATORYthehill.com

Speculation about a presidential run by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) in 2028 is rising to its highest pitch yet — and some people are putting their money on it.

Saturday, 15 August 2026
NEWSThe Block

Polymarket has moved its accounts to a lender the report could not identify but says it still maintains a "close, active relationship" with JPMorgan.

REGULATORYthehill.com

Kalshi is pushing back against the state of Nevada’s claims that the prediction market operator failed to comply with geofencing requirements, accusing the state’s gaming regulator of violating federal law. In a motion filed in state court on Friday evening, state prosecutors argued that the firm failed to implement a geofencing solution…

REGULATORYThe Nevada Independent

Control board: Kalshi should pay $120K per day for noncompliance with the court The Nevada Independent

RESEARCHCoin Edition

Why Prediction Market Signals Rarely Override Crypto Investors’ Existing Bets Coin Edition

REGULATORYThe Block

The session is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday and is intended as a kickoff for the CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting the next day.

REGULATORYReuters
NEWSCNBC

Prediction markets and sports betting: How this UK exchange is trying to do both in the U.S. CNBC

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kevin Love's next team market on Kalshi now favors retirement.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

JPMorgan severed its links with Polymarket last year, citing regulatory concerns as the prediction market industry stood on shakier ground than it does today. The U.S.

REGULATORYCT Mirror

Gender-affirming care, Russia sanctions and Kalshi: CT politics news CT Mirror

NEWSOregon Public Broadcasting - OPB

Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in Washington state Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB

REGULATORYsbcamericas.com

Prediction Markets Weekly: Kalshi Fights and Kalshi Flights sbcamericas.com

REGULATORYFrankfurt Kurnit Klein & Selz

NYC Council Announces Investigation Into Marketing by Prediction Market Platforms (via Passle) Frankfurt Kurnit Klein & Selz

NEWSLaw360

Conn. Opposes Kalshi's Bid To Keep Running Pending Appeal Law360

REGULATORYGizmodo

State Judge to Kalshi: Your Sports Betting Is Obviously Illegal Gizmodo

NEWSvox.com
NEWSAwful Announcing

Sports-mention markets ‘temporarily’ unavailable at Kalshi amid federal investigation Awful Announcing

NEWSAppleValleyNewsNow.com

Which Kalshi bets are still legal in Washington? AppleValleyNewsNow.com

NEWSAML Intelligence

NEWS: JPMorgan debanked Polymarket amid prediction markets scrutiny AML Intelligence

DEALSambcrypto.com

DoubleZero up 20% after Kalshi partnership – Can 2Z clear more resistances? ambcrypto.com

NEWSCNBC

Prediction market regulation debate is around sports betting: Former OMB director Mick Mulvaney CNBC

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi remains bullish on Fernando Mendoza's Offensive Rookie of the Year price.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi continues pushing Carson Beck up the Week 1 QB1 board for the Arizona Cardinals.

DEALSNewYorkUpstate.com

Polymarket MLB code “CUSE” extends $20 invite bonus to UFC 330 this weekend NewYorkUpstate.com

REGULATORYreuters.com

JPMorgan debanked Polymarket last year over regulatory concerns, source says reuters.com

NEWSnews.bloomberglaw.com

Trump to Attend Meeting With Crypto, Prediction Markets Execs news.bloomberglaw.com

Friday, 14 August 2026
REGULATORYPYMNTS.com

JPMorgan Cut Polymarket Banking Ties Over Regulatory Concerns PYMNTS.com

NEWSKUOW

King County judge orders Kalshi to stop most online betting in Washington state KUOW

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

JPMorgan Dropped Polymarket Banking Over Regulatory Risk Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYFocus Gaming News

Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports betting Focus Gaming News

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Kalshi has removed all sports-mention markets (contracts on whether a broadcaster says a particular word), as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reviews whether the category invites manipulation, NPR reported based on anonymous sources. Mention markets on Trump, corporate earnings calls, and news broadcasts remain live on the…

RESEARCHCNBC

Current prediction market regulation is unsustainable, says Washington University's Jonathan Kanter CNBC

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

While the CFTC is showing signs that it’s willing to regulate prediction markets, one operator is taking its own steps toward responsible trading. Here’s a look back at some of the past week’s newsmakers.

REGULATORYCNBC

Regulators and banks step up scrutiny of prediction markets CNBC

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

Kalshi Ordered to Halt Key Washington Markets as Coffeezilla Blasts ‘Thinly Veiled’ Gambling Yahoo Finance

VENTURECDC Gaming

Kalshi pushes investors for $40 billion valuation but regulators have other plans CDC Gaming

REGULATORYReadWrite

Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over allegedly illegal sports betting markets ReadWrite

NEWSYahoo Finance

Why DraftKings' prediction markets could boost sports betting this Fall Yahoo Finance

NEWSqz.com

Washington judge orders Kalshi to block sports and election markets qz.com

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

Kalshi Suspends ‘Mention Markets’ as CFTC Reportedly Investigates Prediction Market Betting on Trump, Sports Commentators Yahoo Finance

NEWSCoinDesk

JPMorgan debanked Polymarket in late 2025 CoinDesk

REGULATORYWSJ

JPMorgan Ended Banking Relationship with Polymarket over Regulatory Concerns WSJ

REGULATORYgamingintelligence.com

Baltimore City sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports betting gamingintelligence.com

REGULATORYDecrypt

Kalshi Ordered to Block Washington Bets Days After CFTC Backed It Decrypt

NEWSPolitico

White House to host crypto, prediction market executives next week Politico

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi now leans on the Chicago Bears relocating to Indiana in latest market shift.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Bryson DeChambeau's course record series on YouTube sparks a new Kalshi market.

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: Federal judge tells Kalshi to cease a lot of markets in Washington state; White House to host prediction markets next week; JP Morgan reportedly debanked Polymarket.

REGULATORYBloomberg

Kalshi and other prediction markets are coming under more pressure from multiple states and regulators. New York City and New York State are both investigating the exchange.

REGULATORYBettors Insider

Nevada Problem Gambling Council Leaves NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership Bettors Insider

REGULATORYBenzinga

Kalshi Suspends ‘Mention Markets’ as CFTC Launches Probe Into Prediction Bets: Report Benzinga

NEWSReuters

Everything is MNPI — prediction markets and the problem of immaterial nonpublic information Reuters

REGULATORYGambling Insider

Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: CFTC Escalates New York Fight as State Challenges Mount Gambling Insider

REGULATORYthebanker.com

JPMorgan debanked Polymarket over regulatory issues; BofA purchases India shadow bank shares thebanker.com

RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

Why young people need probability and skepticism

REGULATORYSeeking Alpha

JPMorgan debanks Polymarket on regulatory issues - report (JPM:NYSE) Seeking Alpha

NEWSCryptonews

“World’s First” Trump Prediction Market Product Killed, What Happened to Truth Predict? Cryptonews

NEWSThe Globe and Mail

Prediction markets’ arrival in Canada increases temptation for insider trading, securities experts warn The Globe and Mail

NEWSDiCello Levitt

Baltimore Files Lawsuits Against Kalshi and Polymarket DiCello Levitt

REGULATORYBeInCrypto

Polymarket Faces Baltimore Lawsuit and Lost JPMorgan Banking Relationship BeInCrypto

NEWSThe Spokesman-Review

Kalshi ordered to stop most operations in WA The Spokesman-Review

NEWSWashington and Lee University

Karen Woody Quoted in The New York Times on Prediction Market Regulation Washington and Lee University

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Over Regulatory Concern, FT Says Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYCrypto News

CFTC vs. New York: the prediction market emergency that could redraw federal-state crypto boundaries Crypto News

NEWSNC State Poole College of Management

Richard Warr Provides Prediction Markets Expertise for Kiplinger NC State Poole College of Management

REGULATORYBaltimore Sun

Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, calling prediction markets illegal sports betting Baltimore Sun

REGULATORYBitcoin Foundation

CFTC Scrutinizes Kalshi Mention Markets as Sports Word Bets Disappear Bitcoin Foundation

REGULATORYNBC Sports

Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for offering unlicensed sports betting NBC Sports

REGULATORYUtah Public Radio

Some prediction markets let people wager on wildfires. Lawmakers want to stop it Utah Public Radio

NEWSwealthmanagement.com

Apex Fintech Solutions Launches Prediction Markets Access wealthmanagement.com

NEWSCoinDesk
REGULATORYblockhead.co

White House to Meet Crypto and Prediction Market Executives Days After Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket blockhead.co

NEWSThe Verge

Judge orders Kalshi to shut down most of its bets in Washington. The Verge

REGULATORYkomonews.com

Kalshi ordered to halt many Washington operations over alleged illegal gambling komonews.com

VENTUREFinancial Times

Largest US bank has continued to cultivate ties with prediction platform as it seeks $20bn valuation

NEWSFinancial Times

Large sums involved shine light on the financial activities of one of Farage’s closest confidants

REGULATORYThe Block

The Washington court, however, allows Kalshi to continue offering commodities, climate, economics and finance-related markets in the state.

NEWSFortune

Kalshi and Polymarket gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning on the eve of the primary, before David Crowley’s upset.

NEWSspokesman.com

Kalshi ordered to block wagers on sports, politics in Washington spokesman.com

REGULATORYwbaltv.com

Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket wbaltv.com

NEWSnpr.org

Feds probe ‘mention markets’ amid White House Kalshi controversy npr.org

REGULATORYnytimes.com

In a preliminary injunction, a state judge barred the prediction market from allowing residents to place bets on the bulk of its offerings.

REGULATORYYahoo

Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket for Illegal Gambling, 'Misleading Customers' Yahoo

NEWSLaw360

Kalshi Must Suspend Most Wash. Offerings, Install Geofencing Law360

NEWSYahoo

Kalshi Ordered to Shut Down Certain Prediction Markets in Washington Yahoo

REGULATORYFOX 13 Seattle

Kalshi ordered to stop gambling operations in WA FOX 13 Seattle

VENTUREYahoo Finance
REGULATORYNonStop Local KHQ

Judge denies Kalshi's request to continue Washington operations during court battle NonStop Local KHQ

REGULATORYCBS News

Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for allegedly violating consumer protection laws CBS News

NEWSYahoo Finance

Polymarket Acquihires Turf's Sports Prediction Team Yahoo Finance

Thursday, 13 August 2026
NEWSThe Seattle Times

Kalshi ordered to stop most operations in WA The Seattle Times

NEWSNBC Connecticut

Federal judge: Connecticut can impose sports betting rules on Kalshi NBC Connecticut

REGULATORYSports Betting Dime

Baltimore Sues Both Kalshi, Polymarket For Alleged Illegal Sports Betting Sports Betting Dime

REGULATORYBloomberg

Kalshi was told by a judge to stop offering most of its prediction market contracts in Washington state, after regulators said they likely constituted an illegal gambling operation.

NEWSGeekWire

Kalshi ordered to shut down sports and election prediction markets in Washington state by Sept. 2 GeekWire

REGULATORYWBAL News Radio

Baltimore City sues Kalshi, Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting WBAL News Radio

NEWSNBC 7 San Diego

San Diego County pushes to get prediction markets like Kalshi out of politics NBC 7 San Diego

NEWSThe Block

Gemini’s prediction market volume nearly doubled as the exchange continued expanding beyond crypto trading.

NEWSWashington State Standard

Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in WA Washington State Standard

RESEARCHCovers.com

MLB New York Prediction Market Push Could Spur More Deals Covers.com

REGULATORYCourthouse News

Baltimore claims Kalshi, Polymarket run illegal sportsbooks Courthouse News

REGULATORYKuCoin

Kalshi Faces New York Shutdown Threat as CFTC Steps In: What Happens Next? KuCoin

VENTUREKuCoin

Kalshi Eyes $40 Billion Valuation: Are Prediction Markets Becoming the Next Big Trading Boom? KuCoin

REGULATORYMaryland Daily Record

Baltimore sues prediction markets as 4th Circuit weighs state case Maryland Daily Record

RESEARCHBroBible

Mississippi State Football Players Land In Hot Water Over Less Than $70 In Prediction Market Trades BroBible

REGULATORYThe Block

Mayor Brandon Scott and the Baltimore City Council sued Kalshi, Polymarket and major trading platforms over alleged illegal sports betting.

REGULATORYThe Sports Geek

FlightAware Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi Just One Day After Filing It The Sports Geek

NEWSSilver Bulletin

Prediction markets aren't magic Silver Bulletin

REGULATORYWBAL-TV

Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket WBAL-TV

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The social sportsbooks join a growing group of companies with sweepstakes roots pursuing different routes into the fast-growing event contract sector. As regulatory pressure mounts on sweepstakes gaming across the U.S., Fliff and Onyx Odds are turning toward the federal derivatives framework as a potential new avenue for growth.

NEWSinc.com

New York City Says Prediction Market Ads May Be Deceptive. 4 Companies Have 14 Days to Answer inc.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Kalshi has flagged over 50 traders in 2026, while Polymarket has flagged over 90. Still, the CFTC has brought action against only three people so far.

REGULATORYWBFF

Baltimore sues Kalshi, Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting, prediction markets WBFF

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: New York City Council is investigating Kalshi and Polymarket, while Baltimore sues the two companies.

VENTUREcitybiz

TSG Invest Updates Kalshi Analysis Following $22B Series F citybiz

VENTURECoinDesk
REGULATORYWIRED

Why This Prediction Market Banned Teens WIRED

NEWSCNBC

Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets CNBC

NEWSbusinesswire.com

Apex Fintech Solutions and Kalshi Power New Era of Prediction Markets Access businesswire.com

NEWSBenzinga

Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000 Benzinga

NEWSSports Illustrated

Jimmy Butler's trade price on Kalshi sits above 50%.

NEWSamNewYork

NYC Council launching investigation, considers laws it can pass regulating how prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi and others advertise in city amNewYork

RESEARCHCNBC

Goat herding hedge: How Susquehanna and Kalshi are helping this company offset a change in California law CNBC

REGULATORYThe Cryptonomist

New York Kalshi Lawsuit Escalates as AG Rejects CFTC Shield The Cryptonomist

NEWSfortune.com

How Kalshi and CBOE are racing to build a $100 trillion compute futures market fortune.com

DEALSYahoo Sports

Report: NCAA Flags 2 Mississippi State Football Players for Kalshi Sports Trades Yahoo Sports

DEALSFantasyLabs

MLB Prediction Market Promos Today, August 12: Kalshi, Polymarket Offers for Mariners-Yankees FantasyLabs

REGULATORYFocus Gaming News

Nevada problem gambling council moves to cut ties with national group over Kalshi partnership Focus Gaming News

VENTUREBitcoin World

Kalshi In Talks For New Funding At $40B Valuation As Revenue Surges Bitcoin World

REGULATORYCoinDesk
NEWSCoinDesk

Kalshi taps DoubleZero for Wall Street-style high-speed data feed CoinDesk

NEWSNew York Magazine

Polymarket and Kalshi Now Face NYC Probe Over ‘Deceptive’ Ads New York Magazine

REGULATORYKalshi News

Jeff Bandman returns to Kalshi as CEO of Kalshi Prime Kalshi News

NEWSyogonet.com

Pikkit users to gain access to ProphetX's sports prediction market exchange yogonet.com

Wednesday, 12 August 2026
REGULATORYYahoo Finance

CFTC steps in to protect Kalshi as New York pushes $36B lawsuit Yahoo Finance

DEALSGaming America

Kalshi Strikes Strategic Partnership With Nasdaq Gaming America

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

FlightAware Drops Kalshi Suit Over Data Use Day After Filing It Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYCrypto News

CFTC orders Kalshi to keep operating in $36B New York fight Crypto News

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Bitcoin-focused prediction markets are pricing a turbulent 2026, with bettors expecting sharp swings but treating six-figure prices as a distant long shot. Bitcoin was trading near $63,500 when the markets were measured at 1:30 p.m.

REGULATORYengadget.com

FlightAware Dropped Its Lawsuit Against Kalshi After Just One Day engadget.com

DEALSCBS Sports

Yankees become first MLB team to name Polymarket as prediction market partner CBS Sports

REGULATORYLegalSportsReport

CFTC Orders Kalshi To Continue Operating In New York LegalSportsReport

NEWSThe Washington Post

NYC Council investigating Polymarket, Kalshi marketing tactics, social harms The Washington Post

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered Kalshi to keep running its exchange after finding that New York’s attempt to stop the platform presented a market emergency. The commission cited a hypothetical bitcoin position to argue that forced liquidation could spread losses well beyond prediction markets.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

FlightAware Drops Suit Against Kalshi Day After Filing It Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYPlayUSA

Nevada Problem Gambling Council to Leave NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership PlayUSA

REGULATORYThe Block

A new lawsuit alleges Trump’s paid Truth Social feed unconstitutionally restricts access to official posts.

NEWSThe Block

Polymarket has hired the Bird, Uber and Lyft blitzscaling veteran Travis VanderZanden as chief growth officer.

REGULATORYPYMNTS.com

CFTC Issues Emergency Order to Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite NY Lawsuit PYMNTS.com

REGULATORYThe Washington Post
REGULATORYTradingView

FlightAware drops Kalshi lawsuit one day after filing TradingView

NEWSCBS News

New York City Council probing Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction markets over marketing claims CBS News

RESEARCHCryptoRank

SKALE Labs Launches Agent Pit: A Simulated Prediction Market for AI Trading Agents CryptoRank

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSThe Block

The NYC Council has opened a probe into prediction market platforms over alleged "false, deceptive, or abusive marketing tactics."

NEWSWSJ

TNB Tech Minute: New York City Launches Prediction Markets Investigation WSJ

NEWSqz.com

NYC Council is investigating Polymarket, Kalshi, and rivals over deceptive marketing qz.com

REGULATORYreadwrite.com

FlightAware ends Kalshi federal lawsuit without prejudice readwrite.com

NEWSThe Block

SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain.

NEWSBenzinga Prediction Markets
REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini Titan have been asked to disclose details about their users, advertising practices and influencer marketing. The New York City Council has launched an investigation into four major prediction market platforms over their advertising practices and potential targeting of minors, adding another front…

REGULATORYthehill.com

The New York City Council announced Wednesday it is investigating four prediction markets for alleged “predatory marketing practices” targeting young people. Council Speaker Julie Menin sent letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini Titan on Monday, requesting more information about their advertising in New York City.

NEWSWSJ

TNB Tech Minute: New York City Launches Prediction Markets Investigatio WSJ

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds has attracted donations from prediction markets, gaming operators and the Seminole Tribe. Gambling companies and tribal gaming stakeholders have poured more than $12 million into Florida politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as sportsbook operators and prediction market companies…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The abrupt dismissal leaves unanswered whether the dispute was resolved privately and what it could mean for prediction markets’ reliance on third-party data. FlightAware abruptly abandoned its legal challenge against Kalshi before the case reached a courtroom, as the prediction market removed the flight tracker’s name from key…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The regulator says New York’s attempt to stop Kalshi from offering event contracts threatens to disrupt derivatives markets nationwide. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued an emergency order to require Kalshi to continue operating in New York, even if a state court rules that the platform must shut down operations…

REGULATORYCBS News

California lawmakers call for crackdown on wildfire betting on prediction markets CBS News

NEWSBenzinga Prediction Markets
NEWSThe Block

The move gives institutional traders direct access to Level 1 and Level 2 data without having to reconstruct the book from APIs.

REGULATORYCryptoProwl
NEWSupi.com

N.Y. City Council to investigation prediction market platforms upi.com

REGULATORYDecrypt

Morning Minute: The CFTC Bails Out Kalshi in NY Decrypt

NEWSBloomberg Law News

New York City Probes Prediction Markets Over Ads, Social Harms Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYiGamingToday.com

Nevada Problem Gambling Group Cuts Ties With NCPG Over Kalshi Partnership iGamingToday.com

VENTUREbloomingbit

Kalshi Seeks Fresh Funding at $40 Billion Valuation bloomingbit

REGULATORYPOLITICO Pro

Article | CFTC invokes emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York POLITICO Pro

REGULATORYWSJ

New York City Launches Sweeping Investigation Into Polymarket and Kalshi WSJ

REGULATORYPYOK

FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Gambling Markets and Risk to Airline Safety PYOK

REGULATORYCoinDesk
NEWSBloomberg

Exchange operator MEMX is looking to become the latest financial exchange to compete with prediction markets by offering binary bets on corporate earnings metrics, according to a representative for the company.

NEWSReuters

NYC Council probes Polymarket over alleged predatory marketing practices Reuters

NEWSBloomberg

The New York City Council is probing the advertising practices of four major prediction market platforms, creating a new front in the legal battles facing the booming industry.

REGULATORYDecrypt

CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers to Keep Kalshi Trading Despite New York Suit Decrypt

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets roundup: CFTC tells Kalshi to keep operating as New York seeks to shut it down; update on FlightAware vs. Kalshi; Polymarket makes some key hires.

REGULATORYThe Clarion Ledger

Documents show two Mississippi State football players were caught sports gambling on the Super Bowl and NBA using Kalshi in February.

REGULATORYCNBC

In letters to four prediction market platforms, City Council Speaker Julie Menin said the council was also actively considering legislation to address concerns.

REGULATORYCrypto News

FlightAware withdraws Kalshi lawsuit after flight market dispute Crypto News

REGULATORYCrypto News

Prediction market turf war: CFTC vs states over Kalshi Crypto News

REGULATORYGizmodo

Federal Government Demands That Kalshi Keep Operating in New York State Despite Lawsuit Gizmodo

REGULATORYFinance Magnates

CFTC Orders Kalshi to Stay Open as New York Seeks $36 Billion Finance Magnates

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Polymarket Is Suffering From a Terrible Comedown: Emily Nicolle Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHBergen Record

Prediction market growth has skyrocketed as critics worry of addiction Bergen Record

REGULATORYSRN News

FlightAware withdraws lawsuit against Kalshi over flight-cancellation markets SRN News

NEWSBloomberg.com

Polymarket Is Suffering From a Terrible World Cup Comedown Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYBitcoin World

FlightAware Drops Lawsuit Against Kalshi One Day After Filing Bitcoin World

RESEARCHmoneywise.com

Prediction markets to allow betting on cancer trials moneywise.com

REGULATORYTradingView

CFTC invokes emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York fight TradingView

REGULATORYNBC Los Angeles

‘Profiting off misery.' Lawmakers push back on Polymarket bets on deadly LA wildfires NBC Los Angeles

NEWSEngadget

A Flight Tracking Service Is Suing Kalshi For Using Its Data Without Authorization Engadget

REGULATORYwww.hlc.com

Predictions realized: Regulators and enforcement authorities dial up the heat on prediction markets while event contracts expand into clinical trial outcomes and FDA approvals - what companies need to know www.hlc.com

REGULATORYstartupfortune.com

FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Unauthorized Use of Its Flight Data startupfortune.com

REGULATORYYellow.com

Polymarket Sues Massachusetts As Prediction Market Battle Splits Federal And State Courts Yellow.com

REGULATORYnews.bloomberglaw.com

CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite New York Suit (1) news.bloomberglaw.com

DEALSThe Closing Line

There’s A Lot Of Polymarket On MLB TV The Closing Line

Tuesday, 11 August 2026
REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut regulators, holding that its sports-event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, so the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction never attached. Coinbase Financial Markets lost a companion motion on the same reasoning despite never having…

REGULATORYBloomberg.com

CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Despite New York Suit Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYThe Block

The CFTC flexed its emergency authority and ordered Kalshi to keep operating after the platform was sued last month in New York.

REGULATORYNEWS10 ABC

‘Significant overreach’: Prediction market responds to lawsuit from NY Attorney General NEWS10 ABC

REGULATORYWSJ

TNB Tech Minute: Flight-Tracking Platform Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Bets WSJ

REGULATORYNewsCord

FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Unauthorized Use of Flight Cancellation Data in New York: 17 outlets compared NewsCord

DEALSThe Laziali

Lazio have announced that their collaboration with their main jersey sponsor, Polymarket, has reached a premature end due to the company’s legal troubles in Italy.The BackgroundThe Serie A club rema...

REGULATORYCNBC

Twenty-three states have laws banning betting on elections, according to Pew Research. Not every state is sure these rules apply to prediction market trades.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Adds Albany Lobbyists During Legal Fight With NY Leaders Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYMen's Journal

FlightAware Sues Kalshi: Someone Is Making Money When Your Flight Gets Canceled Men's Journal

NEWSCDC Gaming

Eight states now have authority to ban or restrict Kalshi CDC Gaming

NEWSFOX 13 News Utah

Kalshi asks judge again to block Utah from taking action against it FOX 13 News Utah

NEWSFortune

Kalshi CEO slams founders for being over-reliant on ‘mostly trash’ business advice Fortune

DEALSSCCG Management

Questions Mount Over NCPG Legitimacy Following Kalshi Partnership SCCG Management

REGULATORYCrowdfund Insider

FlightAware Files Lawsuit Against Kalshi, Alleging Unauthorized Use of Data for Flight-Cancellation Markets Crowdfund Insider

NEWSThe Defiant

Two Prediction Markets Shut Down Hours Apart as Kalshi and Polymarket Take 93% of Volume The Defiant

REGULATORYWSJ

Flight-Tracking Platform Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Prediction Markets WSJ

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Bloomberg reports Kalshi parlay players losing as much as $294 million since the start of the year, but the actual number is probably a lot more. Gambling Insider investigates.

VENTUREFortune

Exclusive: River Markets announces $8.5 million seed round to build prediction market trading tools for institutions Fortune

REGULATORYTechCrunch

FlightAware says that Kalshi used its name and data to offer bets on flight cancellations without the flight tracker's permission.

NEWSFortune

Kalshi’s 30-year-old CEO says most business advice is ‘trash’—he doesn’t read management books or listen to podcasts: ‘I’m gonna make it up as I go’

NEWSThe Salt Lake Tribune

Buzz of the Week: Should Utah block Kalshi entirely? The Salt Lake Tribune

REGULATORYThe TRADE

Kalshi partners with Nasdaq to reinforce oversight of trading activity The TRADE

REGULATORYCNBC

The marketing changes come amid an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission into the company's promotional practices.

DEALSYahoo Sports

Official: Lazio forced to terminate sponsorship deal with Polymarket Yahoo Sports

REGULATORYReadWrite

Kalshi faces FlightAware lawsuit over cancellation markets ReadWrite

REGULATORYCryptoProwl
NEWSSports Illustrated

Event contract markets are open on Kalshi for the New York Knicks opponent on Christmas Day.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

FlightAware Claims Kalshi Uses Its Data for Cancellation Market Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYNevada Current

Nevada problem gambling group cuts ties with national organization over Kalshi deal Nevada Current

NEWSbloodhorse.com

IHA Gives Racing Protection Against Prediction Markets bloodhorse.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The federal court decides that Kalshi is unlikely to prevail on either of its central legal arguments, while noting that sports generated up to 90% of the prediction market’s revenue. A Connecticut federal judge has denied Kalshi’s request to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against the prediction market, finding that its…

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The White House says the Senate has until September 15 to advance the Clarity Act after Democrats blocked a procedural vote before the August recess, with prediction markets now pricing roughly a one in four chance the bill becomes law in 2026. A Hard Deadline From the White House Patrick Witt, executive director of the […]

NEWSiGaming Expert

Kalshi lands in hot water over flight prediction markets iGaming Expert

REGULATORYCoinDesk

How a new FlightAware lawsuit threatens Kalshi’s cancellation bets CoinDesk

DEALSCasino.org

ProphetX Expands B2B Prediction Market Push With Pikkit Partnership Casino.org

REGULATORYTradingView

Judge stays CFTC’s case against US soldier over prediction market bets TradingView

REGULATORYCoinDesk
NEWSNew York Daily News

New York misses the mark on prediction markets New York Daily News

NEWSFederal News Network

Prediction Markets for Texas Senate Election After Latest Poll Federal News Network

REGULATORYSDPB

'Really difficult path' to legislation on prediction markets, Johnson says SDPB

REGULATORYThe Block

FlightAware is also seeking a temporary restraining order to bar Kalshi from activities involving the flight-tracking site.

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets roundup: Kalshi suffers another setback in federal court, this time in Connecticut; DraftKings self-certifies parlays; Kalshi partners with Nasdaq on market surveillance.

REGULATORYBitcoin World

FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Misuse Of Flight Cancellation Data Bitcoin World

DEALSFOX Sports Radio New Jersey

Yankees Name Polymarket Official Prediction Market Partner Despite New York Legal Fight FOX Sports Radio New Jersey

REGULATORYGeekWire

Kalshi brings in former U.S. solicitor general as Washington state gambling case escalates GeekWire

Monday, 10 August 2026
DEALSGV Wire

Kalshi Partners with Nasdaq to Bolster Trade Surveillance GV Wire

REGULATORYcommunitynews.org

Novig Sues New York to Shield Its Prediction Market communitynews.org

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi continues to point towards Anthony Richardson being traded from the Indianapolis Colts.

DEALSKalshi News

Kalshi Partners With Nasdaq Market Surveillance Kalshi News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The National Council on Problem Gambling defends its Kalshi partnership by calling prediction markets the ‘latest evolution of gambling-like platforms.’ Almost three months after the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) announced Kalshi as the first member of its new Financial Services & Trading vertical, questions mount about the…

NEWSDeFi Rate

Prediction Market Volume Rebounds Above $10 Billion as Politics Surges Ahead of NFL Season DeFi Rate

REGULATORYPulse 2.0

Kalshi Adopts Nasdaq Market Surveillance To Strengthen Prediction Market Oversight Pulse 2.0

REGULATORYPR Newswire

ProphetX and Pikkit Bring CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Markets to the Pikkit Community PR Newswire

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Michigan and Nevada are set to become the first two states to force Kalshi to geofence its platform, marking a new phase in the fight over prediction market sports contracts. Prediction markets continue to drive the gambling industry news this week, with enforcement measures taking effect in Michigan and Nevada, court conferences…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Despite a significant dip in second-quarter profitability, DraftKings’ prediction market volume has climbed nearly fivefold since April, with management expecting customer growth to accelerate further during the NFL season. Profits at DraftKings fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 as unfavorable sports results and higher…

NEWSpunchbowl.news

Vault: K Street bearish on prediction market limits punchbowl.news

NEWSReuters
RESEARCHgambling911.com

Prediction Markets Now Have Texas Senate Race a Dead Heat gambling911.com

REGULATORYMarylandReporter.com

Prediction Markets Have Lawmakers Rattled. Real-Money Betting Sites Are Watching Closely MarylandReporter.com

Sunday, 9 August 2026
REGULATORYWeekly Recap

This week’s stories highlighted regulatory delays, security concerns, institutional growth, and market experimentation. The Senate pushed the CLARITY Act vote to September, while a Bitcoin security team uncovered thousands of potential flaws across open-source projects.

RESEARCHsekbernews.id

Kalshi Enforces Rules Against Insider Trading on Political Prediction Markets sekbernews.id

RESEARCHCHAT News Today

Does Wealthsimple want to add sports, politics to its new prediction markets product? CHAT News Today

NEWSThe New York Times

Kalshi’s C.E.O. Isn’t Interested in Management Advice The New York Times

PEOPLEnytimes.com

Tarek Mansour co-founded the fast-growing prediction market company shortly after graduating from M.I.T., aiming to provide a “mathematical, objective” view of the world.

NEWSEL PAÍS English

The music casino: How prediction markets are threatening Spotify’s No. 1 EL PAÍS English

RESEARCHFortune

Kalshi cracks down on insider trading as Trump family looks to increase prediction market presence Fortune

Saturday, 8 August 2026
RESEARCHfinancefeeds.com

Polymarket TWAP Switch Follows $8.2M Manipulation Study financefeeds.com

REGULATORYCasino.org

Novig Sues New York as Sports Prediction Market Launches Nationwide Casino.org

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Gate, a leading global digital asset platform, today announced that Gate DexBuilder, its DEX infrastructure platform, has officially launched its first Event Contracts Builder, alongside a $3 million grant program. The initiative provides project teams, developers, communities, and Web3 applications worldwide with one-stop event contract…

NEWSCoinpedia

Bitcoin Price Eyes $67.5K as Kalshi Traders Turn Bullish Coinpedia

REGULATORYWNYC

Brian Lehrer Weekend: Kalshi Suit; Europe's Fires; Our Social-Media Lives WNYC

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi lists prices for potential College GameDay locations this season.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Genius Sports signed official-data, integrity, and marketing agreements with Polymarket on Aug. 4 and Kalshi on Aug.

REGULATORYThe Regulatory Review

Regulating the Prediction Market Boom The Regulatory Review

RESEARCHBitcoin World

Polymarket Adopts TWAP Settlement To Combat Price Manipulation In Crypto Markets Bitcoin World

NEWSGaming Today

Manifold Markets Review August 2026: How It Works & Is It Legit? Gaming Today

NEWSCovers.com

DraftKings' Prediction Market Push Shows Early Growth Covers.com

RESEARCHthemarysue.com

Prediction markets allow bets on success of medical trials themarysue.com

REGULATORYsbcamericas.com

Yankees Sign Polymarket as New York Sues Prediction Markets sbcamericas.com

DEALSSports Business Journal

Polymarket’s moves in baseball, tennis Sports Business Journal

Friday, 7 August 2026
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi now prices Dylan Cease ahead of Cam Schlittler to win the AL Cy Young.

REGULATORYBetter Markets

The CFTC is Now Telling Prediction Markets How to Avoid Resembling a Sportsbook Better Markets

NEWSCNBC

Prediction markets take center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports CNBC

NEWSPYMNTS.com

DraftKings’ Prediction Markets Push Is Reshaping Its National Growth Strategy PYMNTS.com

NEWSTruthout

Dems Warn Prediction Markets Allowing Bets on Wildfires Threaten Public Safety Truthout

NEWSSportico

The biggest prediction market companies have been eager to position their products as “peer-to-peer,” pitting average Joes against other opinionated casuals. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins, who raved Friday to analysts about the underlying economics of his own predictions product, is taking a different approach.

REGULATORYSportico

At least six prediction market exchanges have conflicts of interest baked into their corporate structures via “affiliate relationships,” according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the nation’s federal betting regulator. The CFTC proposed rules last week meant to address a trend of companies owning both a prediction…

NEWSCourthouse News

Kalshi urges judge to block Iowa from regulating prediction market Courthouse News

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi says there is a chance that Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm leave LIV Golf.

DEALSGaming America

Polymarket Partners With On3 College Sports Media Gaming America

NEWSBloomberg

DraftKings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Jason Robins said he doesn’t think it is good that bettors are placing prediction market wagers on what executives say on company earnings calls.

NEWSIredell Free News

Genius Sports Expands into Prediction Markets Through Polymarket and Kalshi Deals Iredell Free News

DEALSFortune

Exclusive: Kalshi partners with 'Blanket' to help small businesses hedge against risk—with help from the guru of 'hypergamblification' Fortune

NEWSCommercial Observer

Polymarket Bets On a Second Floor at Manhattan’s 78 Crosby Street Commercial Observer

NEWSFOX Sports

Where Are Prediction Markets Legal? State-by-State Availability in 2026 FOX Sports

RESEARCHcoindesk.com

Prediction market Polymarket overhauls rules after study finds fraud coindesk.com

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSFortune

Lauris Zminsky says "a lot of young people are embracing lottery-ticket economics" — but his new project with Kalshi is totally separate from that.

NEWS24/7 Wall St.
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi now leans on Kayvon Thibodeaux staying with the New York Giants despite crowded depth chart.

RESEARCHBettors Insider

New Consumer Advocacy Group “Sports Traders Union” Launches to Push Prediction Market Reforms Bettors Insider

NEWSLohud

Hochul, Blakeman clash on Kalshi, childcare in NY governor's race Lohud

NEWSCoinDesk

JPEG Trading's Kevin March on tokenized stocks, DeFi lending, and the future of prediction markets | CoinDesk Videos CoinDesk

DEALSSportsMint Media

Polymarket expands MLB footprint with New York Yankees partnership SportsMint Media

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets roundup: Polymarket signs deal with MLB’s New York Yankees; DraftKings reports Q2; Kalshi has a new commercial.

RESEARCHNPR

Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly' NPR

REGULATORYThe Block

"Coinbase's averments are, in a word, applesauce," U.S. District Judge Shalina Kumar wrote in Thursday's ruling.

NEWSFox Business

Yankees reach agreement to make Polymarket team's official prediction market partner Fox Business

DEALSiGaming Brazil

Polymarket partners with ATP Tour and becomes official prediction market provider iGaming Brazil

REGULATORYTheLines.com

Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi Lawsuit in Utah TheLines.com

NEWSNC State Poole College of Management

Richard Warr Explains Prediction Market Political Wagering for WSHU NC State Poole College of Management

DEALSBonus.com

Kalshi Partners With Comply to Boost Prediction Market Compliance for Financial Firms Bonus.com

REGULATORYCDC Gaming

OPINION: Congress must stop the prediction market gambling loophole CDC Gaming

REGULATORYKSL.com

Utah secures victory in lawsuit over its prop betting law; prediction market plans to appeal KSL.com

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Flutter Entertainment will route every sports and novelty contract on Fanduel Predicts to Crypto.com’s exchange, leaving CME Group with only the financial markets on a venture CME majority-owns. The move comes three weeks after CME’s chief executive told analysts that many sports prediction markets amount to gambling.

DEALSBriefs Finance

Polymarket Signs Sponsorship Deal With Yankees Briefs Finance

REGULATORYDecrypt

Senators Push CFTC to Ban Wildfire Bets on Prediction Markets Decrypt

REGULATORYinc.com

Kalshi’s Chief Counsel Defends The Prediction Market Platform After New York State Attorney General Sues inc.com

NEWSmusebyclios.com

Kalshi Explains Itself—and Serves the World’s Longest Sandwich musebyclios.com

NEWSbenzinga.com

DraftKings Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Traders Bet Robins Won't Say 'Kalshi' benzinga.com

RESEARCHCasino.org

Prediction Markets Raise Financial Concerns as Borrowing Fuels Trading Casino.org

NEWSLegis1

Tribal Gaming Warn Prediction Markets Threaten Revenue Legis1

NEWSThe Hill

Judge allows Utah to enforce antigambling laws on Kalshi The Hill

REGULATORYWNYC

NYS Sues Kalshi WNYC

NEWSSemafor

Exclusive / Kalshi banks on its predictions’ accuracy Semafor

DEALSsports.yahoo.com

Polymarket Named Prediction Market Partner of New York Yankees sports.yahoo.com

RESEARCHtheconversation.com

Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app exposes gaps in Canada’s gambling protections theconversation.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The sports technology provider will supply official settlement data and integrity services to both exchanges, while Polymarket will also receive live streaming rights for selected competitions. Genius Sports has struck separate deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, expanding its presence in the prediction market sector.

DEALSFront Office Sports

Yankees Are Polymarket’s Latest Big Sports Swing Front Office Sports

RESEARCHSeacoastonline.com

Maine elections have become a $42M hotbed for betting on Polymarket and Kalshi Seacoastonline.com

Thursday, 6 August 2026
NEWSCNBC

The rise in odds come after the broad index hit record highs in a more than 5% four-day rally that ended Wednesday.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is leaning on the Carolina Panthers over the Arizona Cardinals in the NFL Hall of Fame Game.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Tribal representatives urged Congress to protect state and tribal gaming authority. They argued that sports-event contracts operate like bets without equivalent regulatory safeguards.

DEALSSports Business Journal

Yankees first MLB club to land Polymarket as sponsor Sports Business Journal

REGULATORYTimes Union

New York's Kalshi lawsuit takes on partisan edge Times Union

NEWSFederal News Network

El-Sayed Wins Michigan Senate Primary: Prediction Markets for Michigan Senate Election Federal News Network

DEALSNew York Post

Yankees and Polymarket come together on surprising partnership despite murky future New York Post

NEWSPR Newswire

Polymarket Becomes An Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees PR Newswire

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi backs a breakout season for Arch Manning based on his current market prices.

NEWSSportico

FanDuel and CME Group are revising their prediction market joint-venture so that all sports-related bets placed on the FanDuel Predicts brokerage app will be executed via Crypto.com’s Nadex exchange instead of CME. To date, CME has executed single-leg sports bets placed in FanDuel Predicts, while the app incorporated Nadex in June to…

REGULATORYFinTech Global

Kalshi deal pulls Comply into prediction market oversight FinTech Global

DEALSWIN.GG

Roobet enters the prediction market space with new integrated feature WIN.GG

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets roundup: What FanDuel’s Q2 earnings revealed about its prediction market business; Utah weighs its next steps in court battle.

NEWSSportico

A new consumer advocacy group called the Sports Traders Union is launching with hopes of adding a voice to the prediction market discourse that won’t be dismissed as a lobbying puppet. The group, unveiling Thursday, is primarily made up of professional bettors with prominent social media presences who actively use many of the top…

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A federal judge granted Utah summary judgment Tuesday, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt the state’s anti-gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts. The exchange says it will appeal to the Tenth Circuit, which would bring prediction-market appeals into seven of the 13 federal circuits.

REGULATORYCard Player

Kalshi Loses Anti-Gambling Lawsuit In Utah - Poker News Card Player

NEWSnativenewsonline.net

Senate Panel Puts Tribal Gaming and Prediction Markets Under the Microscope nativenewsonline.net

RESEARCHGIGAZINE

American lawmakers have warned that allowing prediction markets where people can bet on wildfires could encourage arson. GIGAZINE

RESEARCHBozeman Daily Chronicle

Federal judge lets Utah enforce its anti-gambling laws on the prediction market Kalshi Bozeman Daily Chronicle

REGULATORYKXAN Austin

Could prediction markets affect elections? Texas lawmakers take a closer look KXAN Austin

DEALSOn3

On3 and Polymarket Announce Exclusive Prediction Market Partnership On3

NEWSThe Cancer Letter

Pour a Scotch, we’re talking clinical trials and prediction markets The Cancer Letter

REGULATORYSt. George News

Kalshi's prediction markets are subject to Utah’s anti-gambling law, judge rules St. George News

REGULATORYFOX 13 News Utah

After Kalshi ruling, Utah considers enforcement action against predictive markets FOX 13 News Utah

RESEARCHX @dwflabs

Traces prediction markets from Renaissance papal betting through the 2024 election boom, and explains why early attempts like Intrade and Augur failed while Kalshi and Polymarket finally broke through. Covers the saver, gambler, and sharp participant problem at the core of prediction market design, and sketches where the industry is…

RESEARCHreports.tiger-research.com

Compares how the US, UK, EU, and Japan built regulatory pathways for prediction markets while Asian jurisdictions have none. Estimates South Korea forgoes up to $43M in annual tax revenue as $52M flows through offshore platforms into its election markets, and lays out three paths forward: gambling law, derivatives law, or a new third…

Wednesday, 5 August 2026
NEWSFuturism

Kalshi Defends Plan to Bet on Lives of Cancer Patients Futurism

REGULATORYrcbizjournal.com

New York Sues Prediction Market KalshiEX, Charging It Runs Illegal Gambling Operation rcbizjournal.com

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi continues to favor JJ McCarthy is a trade candidate from the Minnesota Vikings.

REGULATORYThe Salt Lake Tribune
NEWSBloomberg

CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are scaling back a joint effort to take on prediction market startups after failing to gain traction in a booming industry that has quickly come to represent a threat to both Wall Street exchanges and traditional sportsbooks.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

From Georgetown to investment banking to prediction market startup to industry newsletter, Sam Schwartz sits down for a wide-ranging conversation. Prediction markets caught the eye of Sam Schwartz soon after he left his investment banking analyst position with HSBC in June 2024, not necessarily knowing what was next.

REGULATORYBloomberg

Robert DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement and legal counsel, responded to a lawsuit brought New York State, saying that he is concerned about overreach coming from Attorney General Letitia James's office. DeNault defended Kalshi's operations saying that his company is platforming open marketplaces, not functioning as a casino or a…

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Portland Trail Blazers relocation rumors opened a relocation market on Kalshi.

NEWSHolland & Knight

Senate Indian Affairs Roundtable Highlights Tribal Concerns Over Prediction Markets Holland & Knight

VENTUREBloomberg

Bloomberg's Todd Gillespie joins Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Deals." Polymarket is seeking to raise capital at a valuation of more than $20 billion, months after it closed an earlier round with new investment from hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co.

NEWSWRGB

Attorney says Kalshi, Prediction Markets, are pushing the limits of federal law WRGB

NEWSColumbia Law School

Professor Joshua Mitts on Prediction Markets and Informed Trading Columbia Law School

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Court Fights Test Milbank’s Beefed Up Litigation Group Bloomberg Law News

DEALSGenius Sports

Genius Sports and Kalshi strike major official data, media and integrity partnership Genius Sports

NEWSCT Mirror

As prediction markets grow, CT comptroller warns of ‘dark side’ CT Mirror

REGULATORYTribal Business News

Tribes urge Congress to clarify prediction market rules at Senate roundtable Tribal Business News

NEWSnews.bloomberglaw.com

Flutter Names New CEO After Prediction Markets Upend Gaming (1) news.bloomberglaw.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Australia’s financial regulator said no prediction market operator holds a license in the country. ASIC warned that users face all-or-nothing losses, insider trading risks and limited avenues for recovering their money.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The court sided with Utah, rejecting Kalshi’s claim that federal law supersedes state gambling regulation. A federal judge in Utah has become the first in the country to enter a final judgment rejecting Kalshi’s argument that federal commodities law prevents states from enforcing their gambling laws against the prediction market operator.

REGULATORYCNET

Apple’s New Lease Program, NY Sues Kalshi and the Latest on Australian’s Social Media Ban | Tech Today CNET

DEALSnews.kalshi.com

Genius Sports and Kalshi strike official data and integrity partnership news.kalshi.com

NEWSajc.com

Opinion: SAVE Act ignores prediction market influence; GOP forsakes conservatism ajc.com

REGULATORYDeseret News

Are Kalshi’s sports betting contracts subject to Utah gambling law? What a judge ruled Deseret News

NEWSstartuphub.ai

Kalshi Markets Track AI, Space Bets startuphub.ai

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup Aug. 5: Utah wins federal case against Kalshi; Polymarket seeks $20B valuation; Novig launches in 47 states; Kalshi launches Public Companies Hub.

NEWSKOSU

Polls, prediction markets and Oklahoma politics: What you need to know this election season KOSU

REGULATORYCourthouse News

No dice for Kalshi in federal lawsuit against Utah Courthouse News

REGULATORYUtah News Dispatch

Kalshi is subject to Utah’s anti-gambling law, judge rules Utah News Dispatch

NEWSSports Illustrated

Mike Trout's next team market on Kalshi lists the Philadelphia Phillies as a potential destination.

REGULATORYBlack America Web

State Of New York Sues Kalshi, Frames Company As "Illegal" Black America Web

REGULATORYKUER

Kalshi is not immune to Utah’s ban on gambling, rules federal judge KUER

REGULATORYVitalLaw.com

SWAPS—Santos manipulated outcome of event contract for his own profit, settles with CFTC (Aug 4, 2026) VitalLaw.com

REGULATORYKUTV

Federal judge upholds Utah's gambling ban in Kalshi lawsuit KUTV

REGULATORYTheLines.com

DraftKings Prediction Markets Sued in South Carolina TheLines.com

NEWSKPTV

Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson KPTV

REGULATORYCrypto News

Kalshi adds trade surveillance amid $36B lawsuit Crypto News

NEWSC-SPAN

Sen Indian Affairs Committee Roundtable on Regulation of Prediction Markets C-SPAN

RESEARCHmorganstanley.com

Mauboussin and Callahan review the wisdom of crowds across prediction markets, sports betting markets, parimutuel betting markets, and the stock market, covering each market's history, accuracy, information aggregation mechanism, and failure modes. The key distinction: the three betting markets are zero-sum before costs, while the stock…

Tuesday, 4 August 2026
DEALSAxios

Polymarket becomes official prediction markets partner of ATP Tour Axios

REGULATORYThe Block

Senators and tribal gaming regulators are pushing to keep sports betting under state jurisdiction, resisting efforts by a federal regulator.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Utah Can Apply Anti-Gambling Laws Against Kalshi, Judge Rules Bloomberg Law News

NEWSThe Maine Monitor

What are prediction markets? The Maine Monitor

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Nine U.S. senators are asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit contracts tied to wildfire duration, growth and destruction, warning that state and local fire officials see a risk of arson.

NEWSPR Newswire

Novig Launches Nationwide, Bringing the Leading Sports Trading Platform to Fans Across the Country PR Newswire

VENTUREDeFi Rate

Polymarket Reportedly in Talks for Funding at $20B-Plus Valuation DeFi Rate

REGULATORYBitcoin World

Court Rejects CFTC Attempt To Block New York's Lawsuit Against Kalshi Bitcoin World

NEWSTribal Business News

The Briefing | Prediction markets pose risks beyond lost revenue Tribal Business News

REGULATORYAMBCrypto

New York sues Kalshi after exchange loses key ruling in prediction market fight AMBCrypto

DEALSInvesting.com Australia

Genius Sports stock surges on Polymarket partnership deal By Investing.com Investing.com Australia

REGULATORYPress-Republican

NY sues Kalshi, alleges ‘prediction market’ app is illegal gambling Press-Republican

VENTUREBloomberg.com

Polymarket Seeks More Than $20 Billion Valuation in Funding Round Bloomberg.com

VENTUREBloomberg

Bloomberg News Now -u.s. says strait of hormuz deal could come within days -oil drops on besant comments as markets rally -semiconductor stocks surge, palantir jumps 25% -white house hosts ai firms on voluntary safety tests -anthropic signs $10b compute deal with volta infra -polymarket seeks $20b valuation in new funding round -spacex…

NEWSeFinancialCareers

A Citadel quant developer joined Kalshi and declared himself very excited eFinancialCareers

VENTUREcheddar.com

Betting Big: Polymarket Chases $20 Billion Valuation cheddar.com

NEWSKalshi

Kalshi launches Public Companies Hub as one-stop-shop for tracking corporate metrics Kalshi

REGULATORYPR Newswire

ProphetX and EPICK Fantasy Partner to Bring CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Market to Peer-to-Peer Fantasy Sports PR Newswire

VENTUREbitcoinworld.co.in

Polymarket In Talks To Raise $1B At $20B Valuation, Bloomberg Reports bitcoinworld.co.in

NEWSThe Guardian

My son has cancer. Kalshi wants you to be able to bet on his medical future | Joshua Pederson The Guardian

REGULATORYwrfalp.com

NYS Sues Kalshi For Running Illegal Gambling Operation wrfalp.com

NEWSBusiness Insider

Kalshi CEO says lawsuits are the price of being a disruptor Business Insider

VENTUREFinancial Times

Prediction platform looks to raise $1bn as it tries to gain ground on rival Kalshi

VENTURECoinDesk
VENTURECNBC

The reports come after the company told CNBC in June that its annualized revenue was well above $1 billion.

DEALSBreakingthenews.net

Kalshi partners with Comply on trade surveillance Breakingthenews.net

NEWSGenius Sports

Polymarket and Genius Sports expand the role of official data, exclusive live sports streaming and integrity services in prediction markets | News Genius Sports

DEALSCNBC

The company will announce a partnership with Comply, a compliance technology company, on Tuesday, Kalshi told CNBC.

REGULATORYICLG

New York sues Kalshi in latest legal battle over prediction market ICLG

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The sports technology company said delayed prediction market agreements contributed to its lowered 2026 outlook, but expects the emerging sector to become a major growth driver. Sportradar devoted much of its second-quarter earnings call to prediction markets, with executives saying they expect the emerging sector to generate “tens of…

REGULATORYCrypto News

George Santos to pay $35K after CFTC finds Kalshi market manipulation Crypto News

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup: Polymarket signs exclusive deal with ATP; Senators ask for ban on wildfire bets; ParlayX launches institutional infrastructure play.

RESEARCHKansas Reflector

Prediction markets offer insight into Kansas primary races in absence of traditional polls Kansas Reflector

NEWSSpectrum News NY1

Attorney talks implications of New York state suing Kalshi Spectrum News NY1

RESEARCHnewscentermaine.com

Prediction market users wager millions on Maine elections newscentermaine.com

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Former U.S. Rep.

REGULATORYCrypto News

Kalshi CEO invokes Nasdaq in $36B New York lawsuit Crypto News

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, stressed that the legal actions the state of New York has taken against his platform are being pushed by the gambling industry lobby. Mansour stressed that if New York takes Kalshi down, “they’re gonna have a lot of pissed off New Yorkers.” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour Claims Gambling Lobby Is […]

NEWSABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Kalshi says it's introducing new security measures to combat insider trading ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

NEWSABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Australians warned prediction markets could cost them, with little protection ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

REGULATORYHip-Hop Wired

State Of New York Sues Kalshi, Frames Company As "Illegal" Hip-Hop Wired

REGULATORYGamblingHarm.org

Centuries-Old Law Used In DraftKings, Polymarket Lawsuit GamblingHarm.org

REGULATORYSpectrum News NY1

Former Manhattan pros­e­cutor weighs in on New York's lawsuit against Kalshi Spectrum News NY1

NEWSBarron's

Kalshi Expands 15-Minute Markets Beyond Crypto With Gold and Silver Barron's

Monday, 3 August 2026
NEWSCNBC

Kalshi traders are not expecting a U.S. and Iran nuclear deal soon CNBC

REGULATORYcommunitynews.org

New York Sues Kalshi Over Sports Event Contracts communitynews.org

REGULATORYLaw Commentary

New York Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Unlicensed Gambling Law Commentary

M&Anews.bitcoin.com

The 2026 FIFA World Cup pushed prediction markets into one of the fastest-growing corners of finance, driving record trading volume, fees, transactions, and open interest as millions of traders flocked to platforms to wager on match outcomes and tournament milestones. Prediction markets allow people to buy and sell contracts tied to the…

REGULATORYThe American Bazaar

New York files lawsuit against Kalshi, seeks $36 billion as penalty The American Bazaar

REGULATORYabcnews.com

Prediction market Kalshi suspends 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own races abcnews.com

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi's latest shift remains bullish on the Las Vegas Raiders trading for Vita Vea.

REGULATORYThe Block

"You could copy and paste that lawsuit and file it against Nasdaq,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said during an interview with CNBC.

REGULATORYFortune

Santos was ordered to pay $35,000 after the CFTC found he had manipulated Kalshi contracts tied to his State of the Union attendance.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Scrutinized by Senators (1) Bloomberg Law News

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is leaning on Aaron Donald returning to action at some point this season.

REGULATORYConsumerAffairs

New York sues Kalshi, calling its prediction markets illegal gambling ConsumerAffairs

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

If you are a fan of Kalshi penny parlays, you are likely throwing away money at a phenomenal rate, according to research by Gambling Insider. The longer the odds and the smaller the bet, the larger the relative loss.

REGULATORYBloomberg.com

Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Draw Scrutiny From Senators Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The regulator said the former congressman made misleading public statements about attending President Trump’s speech while trading contracts tied to the outcome. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has fined former U.S.

REGULATORYNew York Post

Blakeman slams Hochul over NY suit to block prediction market Kalshi: 'Left billions on the table' New York Post

REGULATORYBloomberg

A group of Democratic senators urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to rein in prediction market trading on wildfires, expressing concern that individuals could be tempted to commit arson to make their bets pay off.

RESEARCHChannels Television

Busha Expands Its Innovation Portfolio with Launch Of Licensed Prediction Market Signal By Busha Channels Television

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The first full week of August brings key courtroom hearings, major gambling earnings reports and the unofficial start of football betting season. Prediction market litigation remains in the spotlight with hearings scheduled in Rhode Island and Iowa, while several major gambling companies, including DraftKings and Flutter, are set to…

REGULATORYCorporate Crime Reporter

Craig Holman on Insider Trading in Congress and the Prediction Markets Corporate Crime Reporter

DATAThe Block

Notably, Polymarket US's volume rose 54% while the main Polymarket platform's volume fell 26% compared to June.

RESEARCHNewswise

What effects could insider trading have on prediction markets? | Newswise Newswise

RESEARCHBusiness Insider Africa

Busha expands its innovation portfolio with the launch of licensed prediction market, Signal by Busha Business Insider Africa

RESEARCHX @justigor

A thread by Igor (@justigor) arguing that the primitive can be complex while the trading surface stays simple: complexity belongs in the mechanism, and the thing the trader actually touches should let them express a view for a price they like. Walks through a World Cup campaign built on fantasy points as the underlying, where one market…

Sunday, 2 August 2026
REGULATORYTribal Business News

Senators press CFTC on tribal consultation, gaming authority in prediction markets debate Tribal Business News

REGULATORYnbcsports.com

New York files $36 billion lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging it's running an "illegal gambling operation" nbcsports.com

REGULATORYpymnts.com

CPI | New York Lawsuit Tests Prediction Market Regulation pymnts.com

REGULATORYDemocrat and Chronicle

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling Democrat and Chronicle

NEWSThe Jerusalem Post

Could Kalshi become a new tool for political analysts? The Jerusalem Post

REGULATORYwicz.com

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation wicz.com

REGULATORYsaobserver.com

New York Sues Kalshi Seeking $36 Billion as States Challenge Prediction Markets as Illegal Gambling saobserver.com

NEWSlocal10.com

George Santos to pay fine after allegations of insider trading on Kalshi local10.com

NEWSFox News

Kalshi to allow bets on JFK flight cancellations, report says Fox News

REGULATORYWBNG

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling targeting teens WBNG

NEWSKalshi News

Kalshi's 2026 college football preview Kalshi News

NEWSCDC Gaming

Sixth Circuit judge to Kalshi: What’s so bad about being regulated by states? CDC Gaming

REGULATORYGothamist

NY looks to shut down Kalshi, have it pay $36 billion in new lawsuit Gothamist

Saturday, 1 August 2026
REGULATORYNewser

New York Sues Kalshi, Estimating It Could Owe $36B Newser

REGULATORYPCMag UK

New York Sues to Prevent Kalshi From Operating in the State PCMag UK

REGULATORYNBC News

George Santos agrees to $35,000 settlement in federal probe over Kalshi trades NBC News

REGULATORYwng.org

New York sues betting app Kalshi, claims illegal gambling scheme wng.org

REGULATORYCourthouse News

New York sues Kalshi, claiming prediction contracts violate state gambling laws Courthouse News

REGULATORYMashable

New York sues Kalshi, claiming it's 'unlicensed gambling' Mashable

NEWSMPR News

Tribal nations in Minnesota push back on federal proposal for prediction markets MPR News

REGULATORYABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Federal government sues Minnesota over prediction market ban ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

REGULATORYFishDuck

George Santos Pays $35,000 to Settle CFTC Probe Over Kalshi Wager FishDuck

REGULATORYWXXI News

New York state sues Kalshi, saying it runs an ‘illegal gambling operation’ WXXI News

REGULATORYABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

New York sues Kalshi, alleges prediction market is illegal gambling ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

NEWSBloomberg Law News

George Santos to Pay $35,000 Over ‘Manipulative’ Kalshi Bet (1) Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYCNN

New York sues prediction market Kalshi alleging it’s an illegal gambling operation CNN

REGULATORYWSJ

George Santos Settles Regulator’s Claim Over ‘Manipulative Activity’ on Kalshi WSJ

REGULATORYNewsday

NYS sues Kalshi, accusing it of running illegal, unlicensed gambling operation Newsday

REGULATORYThe New York Times

New York Sues Kalshi in Latest Bid to Regulate Prediction Markets The New York Times

RESEARCHABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Video New lawsuit against popular prediction market Kalshi ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

RESEARCHCoin Gabbar

Prediction Market History: From Palace Bets to Blockchain Coin Gabbar

REGULATORYThe New York Times

George Santos Fined Over Bets on State of the Union on Prediction Market The New York Times

NEWSBallotpedia News

Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts Ballotpedia News

REGULATORYCBS News

New York sues Kalshi, alleging the prediction market enables illegal gambling CBS News

REGULATORYNews of the United States - NOTUS

George Santos Settles Kalshi Insider Trading Case With the CFTC News of the United States - NOTUS

REGULATORYGamblingHarm.org

An Ethical Hole In New York’s $36 Billion Kalshi Lawsuit GamblingHarm.org

NEWSPBS Wisconsin

Ann Jacobs on prediction markets and Wisconsin election law PBS Wisconsin

REGULATORYESPN

New York sues Kalshi for alleged 'illegal gambling operation' ESPN

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Distinguishes payoff-space no-arbitrage, which follows from terminal payoffs, from protocol-executable no-arbitrage, which depends on what position transformations traders can actually perform. Using Polymarket's negative-risk markets and the NegRisk Adapter, the authors reconstruct depth-aware portfolio values and transaction histories…

Friday, 31 July 2026
NEWSWTVG

Why it Matters: States fighting prediction markets over sports betting laws WTVG

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is leaning on Uros Medić at UFC Fight Night over Daniel Rodriguez.

REGULATORYSpectrum News NY1

Breaking down New York's lawsuit against prediction market Kalshi Spectrum News NY1

REGULATORYthehill.com

Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has agreed to pay $35,000 to settle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over wagers he placed on the State of the Union earlier this year on Kalshi, the agency announced Friday.

REGULATORYThe Guardian

New York sues Kalshi prediction market alleging ‘illegal gambling operation’ The Guardian

NEWSAwful Announcing

Adam Schefter appears to have cashed out from the billion-dollar sale of a popular sports betting company. The ESPN NFL insider was an “early-stage investor” in Underdog, which began as a daily fantasy brand, later added a content network, and has since morphed into a sports-focused prediction market.

NEWSHolland & Knight

Senate Indian Affairs Committee to Examine Prediction Markets and Tribal Implications Holland & Knight

DEALSFOX Sports

Where to Trade on the UFC This Weekend, Polymarket, Kalshi FOX Sports

REGULATORYAxios

George Santos fined and banned over prediction market trades Axios

REGULATORYThe Block

Former expelled U.S. Rep.

REGULATORYCNBC

It comes after a federal judge earlier this month denied Kalshi's attempts to intervene against the state's Gaming Commission.

NEWSBloomberg

Former Congressman George Santos agreed to pay more than $35,000 to settle allegations he manipulated a wager on prediction market platform Kalshi about whether he’d attend the 2026 State of the Union.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The state wants to stop the prediction market platform from operating within its borders, recover allegedly illegal gains and obtain restitution for consumers. New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed suit against Kalshi, claiming the prediction market operator is running an illegal, unlicensed gambling business in the state.

REGULATORYWLUK

Ruling lets Wisconsin pursue action against Kalshi, CDNA and similar event-contract sites WLUK

REGULATORYThe City Reporter

Attorney General Takes Aim at Kalshi Prediction Market The City Reporter

REGULATORYFortune

The state claims Kalshi is an unlicensed sportsbook, while the prediction market says New York has no authority since it is regulated by a federal agency.

NEWSforbes.com

The Tax Reasons For New York To Treat Kalshi Like A Sportsbook forbes.com

REGULATORYLohud

NY sues prediction market company Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling Lohud

DEALSBitget

Novig partners with New York Mets as MLB’s first prediction market sponsor Bitget

NEWSThe Block

World Cup betting activity peaked around major knockout matches, with markets ranging from match outcomes to player-specific outcomes.

RESEARCHFinanceFeeds

Polymarket is Funding Academics to Study Prediction Markets FinanceFeeds

REGULATORYWSJ

New York Sues Kalshi After Talks to Rein In Prediction Market Break Down WSJ

DEALSYahoo Sports

Mets, Novig Ink 1st Prediction Market Deal for an MLB Team Yahoo Sports

RESEARCHGreenwich Time

New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation' Greenwich Time

REGULATORYBloomberg

New York state authorities sued the predictions-market company Kalshi Inc. for allegedly running an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation in the state, marking another legal hurdle for an industry that has won support from the Trump administration.

DEALSCasino.org

New York Mets, Novig Announce First Prediction Market Deal for an MLB Franchise Casino.org

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Toronto Raptors are fading on Kalshi's Kawhi Leonard next team market. The Los Angeles Clippers begin to rise.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is starting to lean on the Dallas Cowboys on Maxx Crosby's next team market.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The lawsuit alleges that Kalshi acted as an unlicensed gambling operator, stressing that prediction markets meet the legal definition of gambling as the outcomes of event contracts “are uncertain and outside the control of the bettor or hinge on a game of chance.” New York Alleges Kalshi Violated State Laws Operating an Unlicensed…

NEWSTufts Now

Could Prediction Markets Replace Election Polling? Tufts Now

REGULATORYThe Cryptonomist

Kalshi New York Lawsuit Targets Unlicensed Gambling Claims The Cryptonomist

NEWSNew York Post

Sex rumors and personal insults: Inside the vicious battle between Polymarket and Kalshi New York Post

DEALSSporting Goods Intelligence Europe

MLB, NHL sign prediction market deals amid legal fight Sporting Goods Intelligence Europe

RESEARCHWV News

Prediction Markets Lawsuit WV News

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSGoal.com

Can I make Parlays on Kalshi? Kalshi Combo Trading Goal.com

REGULATORYYonkers Times

Governor Hochul and Attorney General James Announce New York Has Sued Kalshi for Running Illegal Gambling Operation Yonkers Times

NEWSThe Block

Bernstein held its $160 Robinhood price target, citing tokenization and prediction markets as Robinhood's next crypto growth drivers.

REGULATORYCoinDesk
NEWSThe Globe and Mail

Opinion: Prediction markets offer a glimpse into the future – and protection from it The Globe and Mail

DEALSBitcoin Foundation

2026 FIFA World Cup Generated $20B on Prediction Markets Like Polymarket and Kalshi Bitcoin Foundation

RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

Regulation would help curb some of their biggest problems

REGULATORYStateline

Online prediction markets rile up state lawmakers Stateline

REGULATORYThe Block

New York State is seeking at least $36 billion in compensatory damages from Kalshi, pending a full accounting.

REGULATORYReuters

New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling Reuters

DEALSLaw360

Mets Become 1st MLB Team To Partner With Prediction Market Law360

NEWSRaleigh News & Observer

Chris Christie: North Carolina got hoodwinked on prediction markets | Opinion Raleigh News & Observer

NEWSLegis1

Senate To Examine Prediction Market Threats To Tribal Sovereignty Legis1

DEALSPYMNTS.com

Mets Partner With Novig in First MLB Prediction Market Deal PYMNTS.com

REGULATORYTimes Union

New ruling in Kalshi case signals that AG's lawsuit is imminent Times Union

NEWSLaw360

Kalshi Sports Offerings Appear On Shaky Ground At 6th Circ. Law360

NEWSCourthouse News

Polymarket, DraftKings accused of violating South Carolina ban on sports betting Courthouse News

RESEARCHNPR

States vs. federal government in prediction market battle : Here & Now Anytime NPR

RESEARCHcitybiz

Bloomberg News Hires Ben Weiss to Cover Cryptocurrencies and Prediction Markets citybiz

NEWSictnews.org

Prediction market money lining up against Flanagan ictnews.org

Thursday, 30 July 2026
REGULATORYFortune

The deal will allow Novig to integrate across the Mets’ ecosystem and run league‑approved markets.

REGULATORYPost and Courier

SC man sues DraftKings, Polymarket for allegedly flouting state ban on sports betting Post and Courier

DATAThe Block

Coinbase said 88% of its net revenue now comes from sources other than bitcoin spot trading, as its share of global crypto volume grows.

PEOPLEBloomberg

Robinhood Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev says the prediction markets business is the fastest growing in the firm’s history. Speaking on "Bloomberg The Close," Tenev also discusses the company's initiatives, Trump Accounts and the future of crypto.

REGULATORYNational Desk

Fact Check Team: Is Kalshi really gambling? States Challenge Prediction Market National Desk

REGULATORYBitcoin Foundation

Binance.US to File for Prediction Market License Bitcoin Foundation

NEWSFTI Consulting

Preparing for Prediction Markets Regulations Is a Safe Bet FTI Consulting

DEALSNew York Post

Mets announce first-ever prediction market partnership with Novig in surprise New York Post

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi, States Try to Sway Sixth Circuit on Sports Betting Rules Bloomberg Law News

NEWSPR Newswire

Novig Named Exclusive Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Mets PR Newswire

NEWSWIRED

DOGE Veterans Are Landing Big Jobs at Prediction Markets WIRED

DEALSSports Business Journal

Mets sign Novig as first MLB club with prediction market sponsor Sports Business Journal

DEALSFront Office Sports

Meet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: Novig Front Office Sports

DEALSWSJ

New York Mets Become First MLB Team to Partner With a Prediction Market WSJ

DATAnews.bitcoin.com

Robinhood reported record Q2 2026 net revenue of $1.31 billion and a 48% surge in net income to $573 million. Growth was fueled by strong performance in options trading, equity trading and a tenfold expansion in event contracts.

NEWSSt. Cloud Times

Walz bars insider bets by state employees on prediction markets St. Cloud Times

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Prediction markets are becoming a significant business for the brokerage, with users growing by roughly one-third since the first quarter. Robinhood’s prediction market business continues to grow rapidly, with nearly 2 million customers trading event contracts in the second quarter.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Bill Belichick is surging up Kalshi's board of college football coaches to be out before September.

RESEARCHBellingcat

Will Ronaldo Cry​? World Cup Fans Bet Billions Through Prediction Markets Bellingcat

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The court ruled that sports-event contracts are unlikely to constitute swaps and rejected CFTC’s federal preemption arguments. A federal judge in Wisconsin has denied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) request to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operators.

REGULATORYThe Fulcrum

Are Prediction Markets Just Sports Betting? Congress Debates Regulatory Reform The Fulcrum

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup July 30: Kalshi, CFTC suffer setback in cases in New York, Wisconsin; Senate committee to hold roundtable.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

New York officials could take action on or after Thursday A federal appeals court judge on Wednesday evening denied Kalshi’s motion for an injunction that would prevent New York state officials from taking action against the prediction market as it sues the state over an order to stop offering derivative contracts on sporting events to…

NEWSThe New Republic

Prediction Markets Are Winning the War Against Them The New Republic

REGULATORYThe Block

Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory said at a recent conference that the company will apply for a designated contract market license in August.

RESEARCHCrypto Briefing

Bloomberg investigates manipulation risks in prediction markets as $200M in suspicious trades surface Crypto Briefing

REGULATORYDeFi Rate

Sports Leagues And Player Unions Press CFTC For Prediction Market Safeguards DeFi Rate

Wednesday, 29 July 2026
NEWSFortune

Robinhood beat analyst expectations on several fronts though crypto revenue fell significantly.

REGULATORYbloomingbit

Binance.US Plans CFTC License Filing Next Month to Launch Prediction Market bloomingbit

NEWSCity Journal
REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

CFTC Loses Bid to Halt Wisconsin Prediction Market Crackdown Bloomberg Law News

NEWSThe Block

The trading platform generated $156 million from event contracts, compared with $100 million from cryptocurrency trading.

NEWSBloomberg

Leading prediction markets have been heralded as “truth machines” — arenas for mass betting that reveal what people really think when they’ve got money on the line. But a new Bloomberg investigation has found evidence that these markets are vulnerable to manipulation.

REGULATORYBloomberg

Binance.US is planning to apply for a license with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that would help it start its own prediction market, the company’s chief executive officer said at a conference on Wednesday.

RESEARCHCasino.org

Drug Trial Prediction Markets Raise Fears Over Research Integrity Casino.org

NEWSBloomberg.com

A $600,000 Kalshi Trade Is Poised for a Big Payoff If Fed Hikes Bloomberg.com

VENTUREfinchannel

EDGE Markets Raises $29.2 Million as Prediction Market Infrastructure Becomes the Real Fundraising Story finchannel

RESEARCHCrypto Briefing

Polymarket launches research institute to study the future of prediction markets: Report Crypto Briefing

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi's WNBA Championship price on the Indiana Fever are rising with their recent play in July.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The White House employee allegedly used insider knowledge of President Donald Trump’s speeches to profit over $100,000 on Kalshi. Gabriel Perez, the White House teleprompter operator who allegedly used inside information of President Donald Trump’s speeches to profit on Kalshi, no longer works for the federal government, according to the…

REGULATORYCasino.org

NFL Pushes Tougher Prediction Market Rules Casino.org

RESEARCHTalking Biz News

Bloomberg hires Weiss to cover crypto and prediction markets Talking Biz News

NEWSPR Newswire

Polymarket Launches Institute to Advance the Science of Prediction Markets PR Newswire

RESEARCHFortune

Exclusive: Polymarket launches institute to fund independent academic research on prediction markets Fortune

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

BetMGM’s inability to compete against the prediction markets threat is impacting top-line growth, as net revenue grew by just 3% in Q2 2026 BetMGM, the 50/50 joint venture between MGM Resorts International and Entain, released its second-quarter 2026 business update on July 28, delivering revenue and earnings that came in below consensus…

NEWSSpectrum News

Prediction market fires back after Wisconsin Elections Commission issues ballot betting guidance Spectrum News

RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

A Brief Review of Netflix’s Prediction Markets Documentary

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Parlay Bets Are Burning Gamblers as Market Booms on Kalshi (1) Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHNEXT.io

Fanatics’ head of RG likens Kalshi, Polymarket to black market operators NEXT.io

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

CFTC Fights Setbacks in Quest to Lock Down Prediction Markets Bloomberg Law News

NEWSFederal News Network

Prediction Markets for Fed Decision in July Federal News Network

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Prediction markets news roundup July 29: ProphetX raises $35M; there were about 1,400 comments to the CFTC on proposed rules; Underdog poised to launch parlays on its own exchange.

REGULATORYThe Block

The group of AGs sent a letter to the CFTC, urging the agency to draft new rules consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act.

RESEARCHHackerNoon

Algomarket Earns a 46 Proof of Usefulness Score by Building a Cross-Venue Prediction Market Analytics Platform HackerNoon

NEWSKTTC | Rochester, MN

Judge blocks new Minnesota prediction market ban from going into effect on August 1st KTTC | Rochester, MN

NEWSNational Conference of State Legislatures

Prediction Markets Raise New Questions for States and Tribes National Conference of State Legislatures

REGULATORYThe Well News

Congress Must Stop the Prediction Market Gambling Loophole The Well News

NEWSNC Newsline

NC voters support sports betting but don’t like prediction markets, new poll finds NC Newsline

REGULATORYBloomberg

As prediction market giants like Kalshi and Polymarket begin offering perpetual futures trading with CFTC approval, other investment platforms are looking to expand their offerings. CME Group is launching single-stock futures, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on more than 50 of the largest US companies.

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl price jumped the Kansas City Chiefs on Kalshi.

NEWSKSNV

Nevada Gaming Control Board shuts down Kalshi’s sports prediction KSNV

NEWSKOLO | 8 News Now

Kalshi agrees to stop operating in Nevada KOLO | 8 News Now

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

Federal Judge Denies Kalshi’s Emergency Injunction Request in New York Yahoo Finance

NEWSeFinancialCareers
NEWSPharma Voice

Kalshi is expanding online betting in drug R&D — unless detractors can stop it Pharma Voice

VENTUREPR Newswire

ProphetX Raises $35M to Scale America's First Federally Regulated Sports-Native Prediction Market and B2B Platform PR Newswire

Tuesday, 28 July 2026
NEWSAxios

Exclusive: Prediction markets get their own media company Axios

REGULATORYthehill.com

President Trump’s former teleprompter operator, who bet on his speeches, is no longer working in the federal government. A White House official confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday that Gabriel Perez was no longer employed in the government.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi suggests that Jarren Duran could be the next Boston Red Sox player traded with his price inching up.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Sport Leagues, States Urge CFTC to Modify Prediction Market Rule Bloomberg Law News

NEWSSportico

An anonymous X account that frequently posts anti-Black and anti-Muslim messages collects checks from Kalshi, the prediction market operator valued at more than $20 billion. The user, who goes by Wall Street Mav and has 1.7 million followers, wrote Saturday that former ESPN analyst Ryan Clark, who is Black, acts like a “chimp.” A day […]

NEWSMPR News

Walz bans state workers from betting with private government info on prediction markets MPR News

REGULATORYReason Magazine

Federal judge halts Minnesota's prediction market ban, signaling other states' efforts might be illegal too Reason Magazine

REGULATORYMinnPost

Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court MinnPost

RESEARCHBaton Rouge Business Report

Prediction market wagering on drug approvals draws fire from researchers Baton Rouge Business Report

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez blocked Minnesota from enforcing the first state felony ban on prediction markets days before its Aug.

NEWSCNBC

The letter is part of the commission’s public comment period for the first draft of its proposed rule on regulating prediction markets.

REGULATORYABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Federal court blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets for now ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Parlay Bets Are Burning Gamblers as Market Takes Off on Kalshi Bloomberg Law News

NEWSCNBC

The Facebook and Instagram owner is set to report earnings after the market close on Wednesday.

NEWSnytimes.com

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now let people wager money on drug approvals. Kalshi also plans to allow bets on clinical trial results.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Minnesota’s Prediction Market Ban Temporarily Blocked by Judge Bloomberg Law News

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Federal funds futures traders are pricing a majority chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady this week, but trading activity beneath the headline tells a more nuanced story.

NEWSBloomberg

Retail bettors are piling into long-shot multi-leg bets on prediction-market platforms, opening up a lucrative opportunity for sophisticated traders taking the other side.

REGULATORYCryptoPotato

Hyperliquid and Multicoin Push CFTC Toward One Prediction Market Rulebook CryptoPotato

NEWSDecrypt

Kalshi, Polymarket Score Win as Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction Market Ban—For Now Decrypt

REGULATORYLas Vegas Review-Journal

Regulators say state removing illegally operating Kalshi market Las Vegas Review-Journal

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

NFL says proposed CFTC rules ‘fall significantly short.’ Prediction markets news roundup: Kalshi gets win in Minnesota, setback in New York; Fanatics buys an exchange.

REGULATORYThe Block

A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on Monday, blocking Minnesota from enforcing its new law banning prediction markets.

RESEARCHThe Fulcrum

Betting on Crisis: Why Prediction Markets Are a Threat to Democratic Trust The Fulcrum

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Ruling comes hours after a Minnesota federal judge agreed to block temporarily a state law banning prediction markets A federal judge in Manhattan on Monday denied Kalshi’s request for an emergency injunction in its case against New York state officials, which would have prevented state gaming regulators from taking action against the…

NEWSFortune

The new contract will let institutional users bet whether 50% of flights will be cancelled at JFK airport over two days in October.

NEWSMinnesota Reformer

Judge halts Minnesota ban on prediction markets Minnesota Reformer

NEWSThe New York Times

Minnesota Judge Blocks First State Ban on Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket The New York Times

RESEARCHPlayUSA

How Are Prediction Markets Taxed? IRS Guidance Pending PlayUSA

NEWSFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul

Prediction markets ban to go in effect Aug. 1 FOX 9 Minneapolis-St.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A prominent Kalshi trader says he asked the exchange to delay a $3.3 million Spotify-market settlement while its enforcement team examined signs of artificial streaming. Kalshi paid the market minutes after its final response, a day before Spotify stripped 523,000 fraudulent streams from the winning song.

DEALSthehill.com

A federal judge on Monday halted a prediction market ban in Minnesota days before it was set to roll out. District Judge Katherine Menendez wrote that the Trump administration, Kalshi and Polymarket are “likely to succeed on the merits” in the case arguing that the state ban is pre-empted by federal law.

NEWSCourthouse News

Judge blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets Courthouse News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Some prediction markets do not follow ‘core principles’ when introducing new contracts, agency advises. Last week’s hearing by a House subcommittee on prediction markets may not lead to legislation coming from the House Agriculture Committee, but it’s already having an impact.

NEWSDecrypt

Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike Decrypt

RESEARCHEuropean Business Magazine

Polymarket Got Trump Right. But the Data Exposes the Limits of Prediction Markets European Business Magazine

Monday, 27 July 2026
NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSNBC News

Federal judge blocks Minnesota’s prediction market ban days before it takes effect NBC News

NEWSReuters

Judge blocks Minnesota's first-in-nation prediction markets ban Reuters

REGULATORYThe Block

The NFL responded to the CFTC’s recent draft rulemaking calling for stricter prediction markets oversight, including age restrictions.

NEWSReuters

Trump admin's proposed prediction market rule faces public pushback Reuters

NEWSMPR News

Federal judge halts Minnesota law meant to bar prediction markets within state MPR News

NEWSKLAS 8 News Now

Kalshi commits to geofencing as part of Nevada ban, contempt hearing canceled KLAS 8 News Now

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A bipartisan Pennsylvania bill would impose insider-trading rules and consumer protections on prediction markets while blocking gambling companies from supplying their liquidity. The restriction could disrupt market-making strategies pursued by Draftkings, Flutter and other sportsbook groups expanding into federally regulated event…

REGULATORYDecrypt

Fanatics Buys CFTC-Registered Exchange in Prediction Markets Land Grab Decrypt

DEALSCBS Sports

Champion Knicks clear favorites to be LeBron James' first 76ers opponent in 2026-27 NBA season at Kalshi CBS Sports

NEWSNevada Public Radio

Nevada loses 2028 primary bid, Kalshi deadline and LGBTQ+ Center expands Nevada Public Radio

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

FIFA said its integrity task force found no suspicious betting or evidence of match manipulation across the 2026 World Cup. A monitoring network that sits on that same task force disclosed a day later that it issued seven integrity notices, placed 15 matches under enhanced scrutiny and monitored prediction markets continuously for the…

NEWSCNBC

Thinking about using Kalshi to pay for school? Here are smarter ways to cover college costs CNBC

NEWSPoole College of Management

Nathan Goldman Provides Expertise on Prediction Market Taxes for CNBC Poole College of Management

REGULATORYqz.com

Kalshi is threatening to sue Netflix over its prediction markets documentary trailer qz.com

DEALSSRP (Structured Retail Products)

ProphetX partners with Players' Lounge on sports prediction markets SRP (Structured Retail Products)

NEWSStartupHub.ai

Prediction Market Arbitrage: 5 Opportunities Live Now on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt (July 27, 2026) StartupHub.ai

REGULATORYCrypto News

Robinhood bought a license. Kalshi had built a business Crypto News

DEALSFanatics Inc

BLOOMBERG: Sports Apparel Company Fanatics Inks BGC Deal for Prediction Markets Expansion Fanatics Inc

REGULATORYMarkets Media

CFTC Advises on Self-Certification of Event Contract Series Markets Media

M&ACoinDesk
REGULATORYThe Laziali

Lazio have apparently terminated their collaboration with Polymarket, which acted as their main shirt sponsor for a brief period.Polymarket Banned in ItalyAfter going sponsorless for almost three year...

RESEARCHiGamingToday.com

As Wildfires Destroy Communities, Online Prediction Markets Turn Disaster Into a Financial Trade iGamingToday.com

REGULATORYCrypto News

Hyperliquid, Multicoin back CFTC prediction market rules Crypto News

NEWSPYMNTS.com

Robinhood Eyes Crypto.com to Expand Role on Prediction Market Stage PYMNTS.com

NEWSMotley Fool
REGULATORYthehill.com

Lawmakers appear to have stalled out on a months-long effort to pass legislation imposing new rules on the booming business of sports gambling and prediction markets, despite bipartisan agreement the industries have gone underscrutinized by the federal government for too long. Critics in both chambers say major online sportsbooks like…

NEWSNPR

Kalshi attacks Wisconsin law banning election bets as 'voter suppression' NPR

RESEARCHnexteventhorizon.substack.com

Kalshi agrees to geofence prohibited markets in Nevada before a Netflix documentary premiered. Prediction markets news roundup: Robinhood and Crypto.com are reportedly discussing a deal.

NEWSMashable

Potential World Cup manipulation on Polymarket flagged by sports advisory group Mashable

RESEARCHdev.andromedacomputer.net

A research report from Andromeda Computer comparing three payout mechanisms for Trepa, a one-minute forecasting game on Solana where participants submit numerical BTC/USD estimates and are rewarded by proximity to the true outcome: (A) the current median-error cutoff with water-filling, (B) a continuous accuracy-proportional distribution…

Sunday, 26 July 2026
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi's Lane Johnson retirement market leans on him playing for the next two seasons.

DEALSNortheast Times

Robinhood, Crypto.com reportedly negotiating prediction market partnership Northeast Times

NEWSSeeking Alpha

Election betting faces fresh legal scrutiny as midterms approach (KALSHI:Private) Seeking Alpha

NEWSYahoo Finance

Kalshi accuses Netflix of faking trades in documentary trailer, sends cease-and-desist Yahoo Finance

RESEARCHThe Globe and Mail

On prediction markets, people are betting big money on climate disasters The Globe and Mail

NEWSWSJ

Wisconsin’s Warning on Election Bets Intensifies Fight With Prediction Markets WSJ

REGULATORYCoinDesk
NEWSThe Guardian

Will prediction market ‘catch fire’ in UK, replicating US boom? The Guardian

NEWSStartup Fortune

Robinhood's talks with Crypto.com signal that prediction markets are eating retail finance Startup Fortune

NEWSCNN

What's behind the fight between Kalshi and Netflix CNN

REGULATORYBenzinga

Kalshi Sends Netflix Cease-and-Desist Letter, Calls 'Prediction Games' Trailer 'Defamatory' Benzinga

REGULATORYKIRO 7 News Seattle

Judge rules Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws KIRO 7 News Seattle

DEALSIredell Free News

CME-FanDuel Prediction Market Partnership Faces New Tension Iredell Free News

Saturday, 25 July 2026
RESEARCHWBTW

The Gray Area: Prediction Markets and The Fight over SC Sports Betting WBTW

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Prediction market operator Kalshi sent Netflix a cease and desist letter on July 24, 2026, accusing the streaming company of defamation over the trailer for its upcoming documentary “Instadocs: The Prediction Games.” The document didn’t stay under wraps for long. CNN and The Hollywood Reporter were among the outlets that obtained it…

RESEARCHThe Sunday Guardian

Insider, outsider trading: Do prediction markets predict? The Sunday Guardian

REGULATORYthehill.com

Prediction market Kalshi on Friday threatened legal action against Netflix unless the streaming giant agrees to take down a trailer for an upcoming documentary about prediction markets. In a cease-and-desist letter sent to Netflix on Friday, Kalshi’s head of litigation, Jovalin Dedaj, alleged that the trailer contains “false and…

NEWSThe Block

A deal would let Robinhood customers trade yes-or-no contracts offered through Crypto.com’s derivatives business, though no deal has yet been reached.

NEWSThe Tech Buzz

Kalshi Threatens Legal Action Over Netflix Documentary Trailer The Tech Buzz

NEWSTechCrunch

Kalshi claims the trailer is “defamatory” and contains “both fabricated documents and false and misleading statements.”

VENTURECoinMarketCap

Polymarket Seeks $400M Raise at $15B Valuation CoinMarketCap

RESEARCHYellow.com

Prediction Markets Turn LeBron James Free Agency Into A $245M Trade Yellow.com

RESEARCHWBAL News Radio

Maryland election chief seeks probe of prediction markets WBAL News Radio

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi suggests that Malik Nabers will return in Week 5 of the NFL season.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Nevada Gaming Control Board gives Kalshi until Aug. 12 to implement GeoComply solution Prediction market operator Kalshi has reached a deal with Nevada, agreeing to use a third-party geofencing provider to keep people in the Silver State from trading contracts on elections, entertainment, or sporting events.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The Crypto.com-affiliated exchange behind OG has sued Washington officials before the state takes enforcement action against its prediction markets. The complaint argues that federal commodities law protects OG from state gambling rules and cites Washington’s successful injunction against Kalshi as an imminent threat.

REGULATORYDeadline

Kalshi Threatens Netflix With Defamation Suit Over “Misleading” Prediction Market Doc Trailer Deadline

VENTURECryptoRank

AI-native prediction market K25.ai hits $200M valuation with Amber Group-led Series A CryptoRank

NEWSThe Hollywood Reporter

Kalshi Accuses Netflix of Defamation Over Trailer for Prediction Markets Documentary The Hollywood Reporter

REGULATORYTheWrap

Kalshi Slaps Netflix With Cease and Desist, Alleges AI Fabrication in Prediction Market Doc TheWrap

NEWSCNN

Kalshi demands Netflix take down trailer for ‘misleading’ prediction market documentary CNN

Friday, 24 July 2026
NEWSSports Illustrated

Diego Pavia faces challenges to land on an NFL roster by Week 1 on Polymarket.

NEWSWBAL-TV

Maryland election chief seeks probe of prediction markets WBAL-TV

REGULATORYBloomberg

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is tapping the brakes on prediction markets’ practice of “self-certifying” boilerplate contracts that could apply to myriad events.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Testimony before a House subcommittee ends up on either side of our weekly ledger, as we recap top headlines from the gambling industry this week. With the World Cup in our rearview mirror and football season still a few weeks away, sports bettors and bookmakers are able to take a bit of a summer breather.

REGULATORYTribal Business News

New Mexico tribes seek injunction to block Kalshi on tribal lands Tribal Business News

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Philadelphia 76ers NBA Finals price spiked on Kalshi after signing LeBron James.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is favoring the Washington Wizards to finish with the worst NBA regular season record in 2026-27.

DEALSSports Business Journal

How Kalshi won the World Cup Sports Business Journal

REGULATORYAffPapa

Crypto.com’s prediction market OG takes Washington to court AffPapa

NEWSThe Motley Fool

Here's Why Hyperliquid Is Now a Threat to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket The Motley Fool

NEWSThe Event Horizon | Dustin Gouker

Kalshi May Let Us Bet/Hedge On College Conference Realignment The Event Horizon | Dustin Gouker

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Charles Schwab, which manages $13 trillion in client assets, is calling the CLARITY Act a “really important fundamental catalyst” that “needs to pass” even as Senate Majority Leader John Thune and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt publicly disagree over whether a vote happens before the August recess. Wall Street’s $13 Trillion…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Prediction markets faced growing pressure from courts and lawmakers this week, even as operators reported record World Cup activity and continued expanding into new products and partnerships. As results highlight prediction markets’ World Cup growth, legal and political scrutiny continued to intensify this week.

NEWSSouth China Morning Post

Kalshi cashes in with US$27 billion World Cup windfall, but legal issues remain South China Morning Post

NEWSsekbernews.id

Prediction Markets Signal Imminent Release of New Claude Opus Model sekbernews.id

REGULATORYPR Newswire

ProphetX and Players' Lounge Partner to Launch CFTC-Regulated Sports Prediction Markets to the Next Generation of Competitive Gamers PR Newswire

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Counter-Strike esports orgs say Valve’s first capsule-free Major – the biggest and most prestigious tournaments in the scene – produced a fraction of the sticker income teams had expected, threatening a revenue stream that has financed smaller teams for years. The shift came amid a New York gambling lawsuit, even as prediction markets…

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Wisconsin election officials say residents who trade contracts tied to an election may become ineligible to vote in that same contest. Kalshi accused the commission of voter suppression and warned courts could force a retraction of any such move.

NEWSDemocracy Docket

Kalshi locks horns with Wisconsin after state warns voters about betting on elections Democracy Docket

Thursday, 23 July 2026
NEWSFortune

The Miami Heat, LeBron James and prediction markets: how a ‘mistake’ video skewed a $245 million bet Fortune

NEWSFortune

“There's a market for everything, and I think people have recognized that there's a market for everything,” Georgetown’s Marty Conway told Fortune.

DEALSReuters

Kalshi hits the back of the net with $27 billion FIFA World Cup windfall Reuters

REGULATORYLegis1

Sports Prediction Markets Face Federal Oversight Review Legis1

REGULATORYDeFi Rate

ProphetX, Players’ Lounge Deal Tests CFTC Rules for Prediction Market Tech Providers DeFi Rate

NEWSBloomberg
NEWSFOX5 Vegas

Horsford, Amodei introduce bill banning sports prediction market contracts FOX5 Vegas

NEWSHigh Country News

I used to ignore prediction markets. Then I learned people were betting on wildfires High Country News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The proposal would establish operating rules for prediction markets without imposing a tax, distinguishing Pennsylvania from several other states. Pennsylvania lawmakers have introduced legislation that would create a regulatory framework for prediction markets without taxing the industry.

NEWSNetflix

New Instadoc Dives into the Booming, Bet-on-Anything World of Prediction Markets Netflix

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The prediction market operators filed a preemptive federal lawsuit days after Washington secured a preliminary injunction against Kalshi. Crypto.com’s prediction market platform, OG, has sued the State of Washington in federal court.

NEWSMaryland Matters

DeMarinis asks state prosecutor to investigate prediction markets Maryland Matters

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Miami Heat continue to be the team most likely to land LeBron James according to the prediction markets, but Bronny James was asked about a potential move to Golden State, Anthony Davis rumors are everywhere and the Cavs remain a sentimental favorite.

NEWSCoinDesk
REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The remarks came one day after CME certified additional sports event contracts. Executives argued CME’s event contracts differ from certain sportsbook-style prediction markets.

NEWSHealthExec

Kalshi opens prediction markets to FDA drug development decisions, clinical trial outcomes HealthExec

DEALSThe Washington Post

The hottest market on Kalshi is one the NBA doesn’t think should exist The Washington Post

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Offering players worldwide the opportunity to bet on any world event: this is the promise of prediction markets platforms. With the massive success and traction of names such as Polymarket and Kalshi, one may wonder: how do these companies operate, behind the curtain?

NEWSThe Economist

Prediction markets need better rules The Economist

NEWSThe Nevada Independent

Nevada congressmen introduce bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets The Nevada Independent

NEWSThe Economist

Can prediction markets win over Wall Street? The Economist

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Markets’ Lobbying Outlays Soar as Scrutiny Ramps Up Bloomberg Law News

NEWSGIS Reports

Prediction markets as risk barometers? GIS Reports

M&ABenzinga

Tesla and SpaceX Merger? Prediction Market Says it Could Happen Before This Date Benzinga

NEWSThe Daily Upside

Kalshi Bets Election Fever Will Drive Platform Growth The Daily Upside

NEWSFinancial Times

Deposits in Polymarket wallet came as convicted fraudster was providing gifts to Farage

NEWSDaily Kos

Kalshi prepares to poison midterm elections with betting BS Daily Kos

REGULATORYFOX 13 Seattle

WA judge issues injunction against Kalshi for ‘likely violating’ state gambling laws FOX 13 Seattle

NEWSQuiver Quantitative

SEGG Media's Sports.com Predict Expands to Public Access with 1,195 Prediction Markets Quiver Quantitative

NEWSGizmodo

Kalshi’s New Midterms Hub Comes With a Felony-Sized Asterisk Gizmodo

NEWSCoinDesk

Kalshi pushes deeper into politics as it eyes commodity contracts CoinDesk

REGULATORYNonStop Local KHQ

Injunction issued in Kalshi lawsuit NonStop Local KHQ

RESEARCHStartupHub.ai

Arbitrage Alert: Prediction Markets Offer Live Opportunities on 2028 Presidential Race, SCOTUS (July 22, 2026) StartupHub.ai

RESEARCHgambling911.com

Prediction Markets Still Have Republicans Winning Florida Governor's Race Despite Latest Polls Showing Dems Gaining Ground gambling911.com

REGULATORYGaming Today

CFTC Orders Kalshi To Honor Michigan Trades Amid Legal Battle Gaming Today

REGULATORYThe Business Journals

Judge finds Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws The Business Journals

Wednesday, 22 July 2026
NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Kambi says its first entirely AI-traded World Cup processed more than $1.14 billion in stakes and over 100 million bets without manual trading intervention. The sportsbook supplier is also evaluating prediction-market partnerships and an internally developed product, but says licensing risks prevent an immediate US launch.

NEWSThe Roosevelt Institute

The Hidden House: Prediction Markets and How They’re Shaping Society The Roosevelt Institute

NEWSSportico

When FanDuel and CME Group launched their joint-venture prediction market app in December, CME Group president Lynne Fitzpatrick specifically touted how the product would “enable a new generation of users to express their views” on sports, among other topics. CME didn’t express any public misgivings about sports being included in FanDuel…

REGULATORYArizona Capitol Times

7 govs have banned state employees from prediction market wagering Arizona Capitol Times

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Organized crime, international betting networks and evolving products such as prediction markets are reshaping the fight against match-fixing. Senior Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) officials warned the House of Lords that match-fixing is becoming more complex while arguing the international treaty the U.K.

REGULATORYNative News Online

Indian Gaming Association Urges Congress to Protect Tribal Sovereignty in Prediction Markets Hearing Native News Online

NEWSYahoo Sports

Kalshi Takes Nearly $200M in Trades on LeBron's Next Team Yahoo Sports

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Leads Push in Prediction Markets to Bolster Legal Talent Bloomberg Law News

NEWSCBS News

Kalshi debuts a midterm election hub that relies on real-money bets to forecast race outcomes CBS News

M&Anews.bitcoin.com

Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms while giving Republicans the edge to hold the Senate, with tens of millions of dollars wagered across hundreds of individual races and primary markets.

NEWSThe Block

Last week, the ANJ ordered French internet service providers to block access to Polymarket ahead of the World Cup final.

DATAPew Research Center

What we know about the typical Polymarket user Pew Research Center

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Moves to Go Big on US Election Bets Ahead of Midterms Bloomberg Law News

DEALSCoinDesk
REGULATORYWBFF

Congress weighs regulating sports prediction markets WBFF

REGULATORYKING5.com

Judge says Kalshi likely violated Washington gambling laws KING5.com

NEWSSeeking Alpha

Polymarket to challenge French ban after 'disappointing' ANJ decision Seeking Alpha

NEWSBusiness Insider

How a Kalshi executive is pitching Wall Street on prediction markets Business Insider

NEWSPR Newswire

Talos Brings Prediction Markets Onto Institutional Trading Infrastructure PR Newswire

NEWSCNBC

The company said the page gives viewers of its event contracts a central place to see speculators' outlook for the midterm elections.

RESEARCHKELO-AM

Kalshi debuts US midterms hub for election forecasts and polling data KELO-AM

REGULATORYthehill.com

Kalshi launched a new online hub Wednesday for midterm election forecasting, displaying prediction market odds for major races alongside polling averages, fundraising data and other election information. The platform touted its "Midterms Hub" as a "one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting," featuring Senate, House and…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The Elections Commission says trading election prediction contracts may disqualify voters from casting a ballot in that election. The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) has warned that residents who trade election prediction market contracts could face felony charges if they later vote in the same election.

REGULATORYFinancial Times

Without tough enforcement, prediction platforms provide fertile ground for manipulation

NEWSHEAVY

The Cleveland Cavaliers are once again the favorites to land LeBron James in free agency after a recent change in the prediction market. Polymarket had a major change over the past few days that saw the Miami Heat passing Cleveland as the top LeBron choice.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is leaning on Tarik Skubal staying with the Detroit Tigers rather than being traded.

REGULATORYThe Spokesman-Review

King County judge rules Kalshi likely violates state gambling laws The Spokesman-Review

REGULATORYTribal Business News

House lawmakers question sports prediction markets as tribes defend gaming authority Tribal Business News

NEWSGeekWire

Seattle judge deals blow to Kalshi, rejects prediction market’s federal defense GeekWire

NEWSNews of the United States - NOTUS

Prediction Markets Bet on Lobbying for Policy Wins News of the United States - NOTUS

REGULATORYthehill.com

Wisconsin’s Election Commission (WEC) warned in a statement on Tuesday that betting on elections that you cast ballots in is illegal in the state and there will be consequences. “We want voters to understand that they cannot legally make a bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election,” WEC Administrator Meagan Wolfe said,...

Tuesday, 21 July 2026
NEWSDavis Wright Tremaine

Prediction Markets and Insider Trading Davis Wright Tremaine

REGULATORYKUOW

Judge blocks Kalshi in WA, ruling the platform likely ran 'illegal gambling operation' KUOW

REGULATORYCNBC

Prediction markets and their opponents are spending more to influence Congress in 2026 CNBC

REGULATORYthehill.com

Welcome to The Hill's Business & Economy newsletter {beacon} Business & Economy Business & Economy The Big Story Wisconsin residents could lose vote with prediction market bets The Wisconsin Election Commission (WEC) warned in a statement on Tuesday that betting on elections that you cast ballots in is illegal in the state and there...

NEWSWPR

Polymarket, Kalshi push back after Wisconsin Elections Commission warns against ballot betting WPR

NEWSFinancial Times

Are the platforms useful or dangerous?

NEWSWSJ

Kalshi Seeks to Launch Perpetual Futures for Precious Metals WSJ

REGULATORYArentFox Schiff

When the Theory Does Not Fit: Prediction Markets and the Limits of Insider Trading Enforcement ArentFox Schiff

NEWSBloomberg

Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc.’s revenue from prediction market is set to overshadow that from cryptocurrency trading, starting as soon as the second quarter, analysts at Bernstein and Piper Sandler said this week.

REGULATORYThe Block

As state and federal regulators continue to clash over who should oversee sports-related prediction markets, lawmakers consider stepping in.

NEWSCourthouse News

Washington judge corners Kalshi, setting up another state-fed showdown Courthouse News

RESEARCHinc.com

The $2 Billion Question Behind Kalshi’s New Prediction Market inc.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

New AGA and NIGC reports show that commercial and tribal gaming revenue continues to grow, despite the growing popularity of prediction markets. The U.S.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Seeks Approval to List Perpetual Futures Tied to Gold (1) Bloomberg Law News

NEWSMarkets Media

Kalshi Targets Institutions Markets Media

REGULATORYThe Seattle Times

WA judge halts Kalshi ‘prediction market’ over state gambling laws The Seattle Times

NEWSCNBC

Healthcare students are turning to Kalshi and betting platforms to pay for their degrees, survey shows CNBC

REGULATORYFinancial Times

Proposed offering illustrates prediction platform’s evolution into financial products to challenge traditional exchanges

REGULATORYNonStop Local KHQ

Washington AG announced court order against Kalshi betting platform NonStop Local KHQ

NEWSBetter Markets

Kalshi’s World Cup “Trades” Were Poorly Disguised Bets Better Markets

REGULATORYReuters

Washington judge blocks Kalshi contracts, cites state's gambling law Reuters

DEALSFront Office Sports

PLL Quietly Struck Exclusive Deal With Polymarket Front Office Sports

NEWSFortune

Kalshi's 'chronically online' war room unlocked World Cup virality—and AI may bring back monoculture Fortune

NEWSBloomberg.com

Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYCompliance Week

Kalshi, CFTC clash with states over prediction market jurisdiction Compliance Week

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Ireland’s gambling regulator says prediction markets must block local users or risk High Court enforcement, as Polymarket and Kalshi add the country to their restricted jurisdictions. The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) has confirmed to Gambling Insider that it warned major prediction market platforms operating without a…

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi adjusted its World Series price for the Boston Red Sox during its current win streak.

REGULATORYBloomberg

Kalshi Inc. is seeking approval to expand precious-metals trading on its platform with a popular type of derivative that never expires for gold, silver and platinum.

REGULATORYIredell Free News

Kalshi Gains 3 Million New Users Amid World Cup Gambling Iredell Free News

NEWSFortune

Here's how a 20-person team turned the World Cup into a $24 billion trading moment, and discovered something unexpected about what AI is doing to culture.

NEWSYahoo! Finance Canada

Kalshi took $40 billion in World Cup bets — and says it owes no sports-betting tax Yahoo! Finance Canada

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is leaning on Cam Skattebo to finish the 2026-27 season with over 750 rushing yards.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The court found Washington is likely to succeed on claims that Kalshi’s event contracts violate state gambling laws, rejecting the operator’s argument that federal law preempts state enforcement. A Washington state judge has granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi.

NEWSThe Korea Times

Prediction markets boom as Korea grapples with legal gray zone The Korea Times

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A Washington state judge has granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi after rejecting its argument that federal commodities law overrides state gambling rules. The court found Washington is likely to prove its claims, but will not finalize the restrictions imposed on the prediction market until August.

NEWSBloomberg

Sites like Polymarket can be rewarding for traders with inside info. There are different ways to get it.

NEWSMilwaukee Journal Sentinel

Is buying into a prediction market OK if you're voting in Wisconsin? Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

NEWSBarron's

Spotlight Is on Sports Prediction Markets at House Hearing Today Barron's

REGULATORYThe Block

A Washington state court granted the state's motion for a preliminary injunction, saying Kalshi operates illegal gambling activities.

NEWSCrypto News

Polymarket refers nearly 100 wallets amid $200M insider-trade concerns Crypto News

DEALSBusiness Wire

Kalshi, Oura Ring, and AT&T Score the Most Engaging Ads of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, ranked by TV outcomes data on edo.com/worldcup Business Wire

NEWSLegalSportsReport

World Cup Heats Up Prediction Market Vibes On Wall Street LegalSportsReport

NEWSYahoo Finance

Robinhood’s Prediction Market Will Overtake Crypto, Says Bernstein Yahoo Finance

NEWSSportico

Kalshi bills itself as the “trade on everything” exchange. During the World Cup, it doubled as the advertise on everything exchange.

DEALSEDO, Inc.

Kalshi, Oura Ring, and AT&T Score the Most Engaging Ads of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ EDO, Inc.

NEWSCNBC

Bernstein's Ian Moore on why prediction markets are outpacing sports books CNBC

REGULATORYTheLines.com

Illinois Stands Against Injunction in Prediction Market Lawsuit TheLines.com

Monday, 20 July 2026
DATAThe Block

Sports accounted for 80% of both Kalshi and Polymarket's total volumes throughout the weekslong World Cup tournament.

NEWSNew Mexico Political Report

Betting on sovereignty: Heinrich fights to protect tribal gaming from prediction markets New Mexico Political Report

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Prediction markets recorded nearly $2 billion in final-specific trading as Spain defeated Argentina to win the 2026 World Cup. Kalshi accounted for almost 96% of the combined volume, with activity surging by more than $620 million from Friday through settlement.

NEWSCrypto News

US House weighs sports-contract ban threatening Kalshi and Polymarket Crypto News

REGULATORYMashable

Kalshi gains 3 million users amid World Cup gambling Mashable

NEWSSource New Mexico

US Sen. Heinrich, New Mexico tribes seek rules to rein in prediction markets Source New Mexico

RESEARCHCovers.com

NCAA Warns Prediction Markets Could Intensify Threats Covers.com

REGULATORYInquirer.com

The federal government typically left gambling to the states — until the prediction markets Inquirer.com

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Hyperliquid told users on July 19 that its outcome markets product, known as HIP-4, will move to permissionless deployment in a coming network upgrade. The announcement came through the exchange’s Telegram channel.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi leans on John Harbaugh

NEWSAxios

Arizona moves to curb prediction market wagers by government employees Axios

DEALSqz.com

Kalshi adds 3 million users during 2026 FIFA World Cup qz.com

NEWSCryptoProwl
NEWSThe Block

Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target to $160, citing prediction markets, Rothera, and Robinhood Chain as key revenue drivers.

NEWSYogonet

Kalshi and AppliedXL launch prediction markets on clinical trials Yogonet

DEALSFortune

Fortune Tech: Prediction markets milestone, delivery apps pressure chains, Apple Live Notes Fortune

NEWSBenzinga

A Mysterious Polymarket Trader Walked Away With $1.35 Million in Hours After One Bold World Cup Wager—and Benzinga

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

A Congress subcommittee will discuss sports event contracts, while gambling operators begin reporting earnings, and more June sports betting figures are likely to come. Prediction markets remain at the center of gambling industry developments this week, as Congress prepares to examine sports event contracts and the sector continues…

NEWSYahoo Finance

Polymarket Whale Turns $1.9M $TRUMP Win Into $1.2M World Cup Loss Yahoo Finance

RESEARCHForkLog

Hyperliquid to Launch Open Prediction Markets with HIP-4 ForkLog

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi offers prices on every NFL team to make or miss the playoffs. The Los Angeles Rams have the strongest price to make them.

DATAnews.bitcoin.com

U.S. President Donald Trump pledged on Sunday to keep pushing consumer prices lower, claiming oil, gas, eggs and prescription drugs are all “dropping FAST.” June’s inflation data largely supports the trend, with one notable exception in the egg aisle.

NEWSCrypto News

Hyperliquid plans permissionless HIP 4 prediction market deployment Crypto News

DEALSYahoo Finance

Kalshi Adds 3 Million Users During FIFA World Cup Boom Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYPYMNTS.com

Polymarket Faces Ban by France’s Gambling Regulator PYMNTS.com

RESEARCHthequantummilkman.substack.com

Proposes using quasi-experimental methods from econometrics — regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences — to turn prediction markets into causal tools for evaluating candidates and policies. Instead of futarchy's wholesale replacement of governance with markets, this approach uses conditional markets on vote margins…

Sunday, 19 July 2026
NEWSSports Illustrated

If prediction markets had been in vogue two years ago, you could have gotten astronomical odds that both Beau Pribula and James Franklin would be in Charlotte,

NEWSCDC Gaming

Ninth Circuit judges question Kalshi’s prediction market on tribal land CDC Gaming

NEWSThe Block

The order cuts French users off ahead of the World Cup final, which will settle the largest event markets in the industry's history.

NEWSCybersecurity Insiders

Software Supply Chain Security Miss Drained $3M from Polymarket Cybersecurity Insiders

NEWSBenzinga

Kalshi Added Three Million Users During World Cup Benzinga

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Prediction market traders are betting against the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, even as Kalshi bettors put strong odds on a Senate vote happening within weeks. On Polymarket, the market asking whether the Clarity Act (H.R.

REGULATORYRTE.ie

Prediction market firm facing proceedings by regulator RTE.ie

REGULATORYStartup Fortune

France Blocks Polymarket Nationwide After Hackers Rigged Weather Bets Startup Fortune

REGULATORYBloomberg

Prediction-market trading has surged during a blowout World Cup, far outpacing the growth at traditional sportsbooks and driving home the competitive threat that companies like Kalshi now pose to the sports-gambling industry.

REGULATORYCarlow Live

Gambling regulator threatens prediction market with High Court action Carlow Live

DEALSCNBC

The prediction market has launched some ads featuring soccer players, as well as formed a partnership to display its brand in more places during the tournament.

NEWSTribal Business News

The missing data in the prediction market debate Tribal Business News

PEOPLEAssociated Press

Europe’s top human rights body questioned the integrity of the World Cup and urged FIFA on Sunday to help build a stronger framework for the 2030 edition being played mostly in Spain and Portugal. Swiss politician Alain Berset cited FIFA suspending a ban for United States forward Folarin Balugun while under pressure from U.S.

NEWSCrypto News

France orders ISPs to block Polymarket as scrutiny widens Crypto News

PEOPLEnytimes.com

Shayne Coplan of Polymarket and Tarek Mansour of Kalshi are young billionaires intent on dominating prediction markets. It’s more than a battle.

NEWSAsbury Park Press

Polymarket down. Polymarket outage.

REGULATORYfacebook.com

Prediction market users are poised to make the World Cup the largest gambling event in history, analysts said. When Argentina and Spain take the field on Sunday for the final game, more than $5.55 billion will be riding on the winner on Polymarket and Kalshi facebook.com

NEWSFOX Sports

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Trading Platform to Use for the 2026 World Cup Final FOX Sports

Saturday, 18 July 2026
REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

France’s national gaming regulator has ordered internet service providers to completely block access to the crypto-based prediction site Polymarket. Polymarket Traffic from French IP Addresses Surges France’s national gaming regulator announced Friday it has ordered internet service providers to completely block access to Polymarket,…

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSThe New York Times

On Kalshi and Polymarket, World Cup Final Drives Bets Into the Billions The New York Times

NEWSforeignpolicyjournal.com

Prediction Markets Signal More Pain For Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Despite Bullish Analyst Consensus foreignpolicyjournal.com

REGULATORYCDC Gaming

The Supreme Court could eventually decide if Kalshi is just sports gambling CDC Gaming

VENTUREBettors Insider

Pascal Closes $9 Million Series A to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets Bettors Insider

REGULATORYWeek in Review

This week’s crypto storylines mixed balance-sheet stress, regulation, venture hindsight, geopolitics, and macro sentiment. Michael Saylor built a $3 billion cash buffer around Strategy’s bitcoin stack, the CFTC backed Kalshi in its Michigan fight, and Tim Draper reflected on missing Coinbase before later joining the ride.

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Two prediction market platforms are pricing the same outcome for Sunday’s World Cup final, with Polymarket and Kalshi bettors both putting Spain ahead of Argentina as the teams prepare to meet at Metlife Stadium in New Jersey. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Polymarket heavily leans on Dricus Du Plessis over Kamaru Usman at UFC Fight Night. Usman has lost three of his last four bouts.

NEWSCNBC

How are prediction markets taxed? The IRS hasn’t provided guidance yet CNBC

RESEARCHCasino.org

Crypto Volume on Prediction Markets Surges 44x in 2026 Casino.org

NEWSWSJ

The New Washington Temptation: Inside Information and a Prediction Market Account WSJ

REGULATORYnytimes.com

The soccer tournament has helped propel the prediction markets to new user records, creating what may be the largest gambling event in history.

NEWScbs19.tv

Alleged insider betting by Trump teleprompter operator sparks Kalshi investigation cbs19.tv

VENTURECoinGape

Wintermute-Backed Pascal Raises $9M as USV Bets Big on Prediction Markets CoinGape

REGULATORYWRGB

Federal judge rejects Kalshi bid to block New York gambling law enforcement WRGB

NEWSCBS News

Trump teleprompter accused of betting on President's speeches on Kalshi CBS News

NEWSFrance 24

France orders internet providers to block access to Polymarket prediction site France 24

Friday, 17 July 2026
M&Anews.bitcoin.com

Underdog has filed the first seven sports event-contract templates for UDX, the federally regulated exchange it acquired in March. The filings target an initial listing no later than July 17, moving Underdog closer to controlling its own contracts rather than relying exclusively on outside exchanges.

NEWSCrypto News

Augur returns with decentralized layer for disputed prediction markets Crypto News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Our weekly recap of gambling industry headlines includes massive World Cup trading volume on prediction markets, a Trump technical assistant and Bryce Harper missing the obvious, Nigel Eccles, and Seinfeld. As Spain and Argentina prepare to face off in Sunday’s FIFA World Cup 2026 Final, trading volume keeps skyrocketing on prediction…

VENTURECasino.org

Prediction Market Startup Pascal Lands $9M in First Funding Round Casino.org

REGULATORYcherokeephoenix.org

Five Tribes call for oversight of prediction markets cherokeephoenix.org

NEWSWIRED

Polymarket’s Corporate Structure Is a Mystery—Even to Some of Its Former Employees WIRED

NEWSPajiba

Prediction Markets Find a Whole New Way to Be Evil Pajiba

NEWSFortune

World Cup final is already the biggest ever prediction market as Kalshi bets top $1.27 billion—with Spain favored to beat Argentina Fortune

REGULATORYCNN

Trump regulator orders Kalshi to defy Michigan court – escalating battle over prediction markets CNN

NEWSFrance 24

France blocks access to Polymarket France 24

NEWSUSA Today

Late-night hosts roast White House Kalshi betting scandal 'grift' USA Today

NEWSCNN

People are making wildfire bets on prediction markets. Experts say it could lead to disaster CNN

NEWSReuters

French internet service providers told to block access to Polymarket Reuters

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi favors Sonny Gray to be traded ahead of the MLB trade deadline.

REGULATORYFortune

A longtime aide is on unpaid leave after Kalshi flagged trades tied to presidential speeches and referred them to the CFTC.

VENTUREYogonet

New prediction market entrant Pascal closes $9 million Series A Yogonet

DEALSSports Video Group

DAZN and ADI Predictstreet Announce Exclusive Global Prediction Market Partnership Sports Video Group

NEWSfox10tv.com

Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator accused of making Kalshi bets on president’s speeches fox10tv.com

VENTURECryptoRank

Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9M Series A led by USV to target pro traders CryptoRank

NEWSThe Block

Crypto-style perps and prediction markets hit AI compute ahead of CME and ICE, with regulated GPU futures targeted for late 2026.

NEWSNBC New York

Trump's teleprompter operator on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets NBC New York

NEWSForbes

Forbes Daily: Kalshi Is Now Letting Users Bet On Clinical Trials Forbes

NEWSYogonet

FIRST.bet and ADI Predictstreet join forces to scale regulated prediction markets across LatAm Yogonet

NEWSvox.com
NEWSWLWT

Prediction markets allow people to bet on wildfires. Experts fear it will fuel arson WLWT

NEWSAP News

Trump's teleprompter operator on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets on Trump speeches AP News

NEWSStartup Fortune

A Scrappy New York Startup Is Betting $9 Million It Can Outsmart Kalshi and Polymarket Startup Fortune

NEWSYahoo Sports

DAZN, ADI Predictstreet to Team Up on Global Sports Prediction Markets Yahoo Sports

VENTURECrypto Briefing

Pascal raises $9M in Series A to take on Kalshi and Polymarket with institutional-grade prediction markets Crypto Briefing

NEWSBitcoin Foundation

Jump Trading Expands Prediction Markets Team as Volumes Surge Bitcoin Foundation

NEWSNPR

Kalshi says it's not a sportsbook even as World Cup bets surge NPR

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Prediction markets faced another week of legal battles, congressional scrutiny and product expansion, with Kalshi fighting on multiple fronts while new exchanges and products continued to emerge. Courts in New York, Michigan, and Washington saw new developments involving Kalshi this week, while the CFTC exercised emergency powers for the…

NEWSCBS News

White House teleprompter operator made more than $100,000 on Kalshi bets on Trump speeches CBS News

VENTUREX @Crypto_Dealflow
NEWSBenzinga

SpaceX Stock to Close Higher by July End? Probability on Crypto Prediction Market Falls From 61% to 32% Benzinga

RESEARCHTradingView

Stanford Study Flags Bitcoin Market Manipulation on Polymarket TradingView

NEWSrg.org

Illinois Considers Steeper Sports Betting Taxes and New Rules for Prediction Markets rg.org

NEWSFortune

Kalshi pulls plug on flight cancellation contracts after social media blowback Fortune

NEWSAxios

White House teleprompter operator investigated over alleged Kalshi trades on Trump speeches Axios

NEWSWSMV

Maricopa County bans employees from wagering on prediction markets WSMV

REGULATORYnews.bloombergtax.com

CFTC Probes Teleprompter Operator’s Kalshi Bets on Trump (1) news.bloombergtax.com

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

CFTC Probes White House Teleprompter’s Kalshi Bets on Trump Bloomberg Law News

NEWSFinancial Times

Aide allegedly used advanced knowledge of president’s speeches to profit on ‘mention markets’ wagers

NEWSGizmodo

Kalshi Is Set to Start Taking Bets on Drug Trials Gizmodo

RESEARCHForkLog

Researchers find signs of manipulation in Polymarket five-minute Bitcoin contracts ForkLog

Thursday, 16 July 2026
REGULATORYthehill.com

{beacon} Technology Technology Your feedback matters to us. Take our brief newsletter survey to help us improve the newsletters you read every day.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers wants online sportsbooks and prediction markets to scan users’ faces to estimate their age before allowing them to bet or trade.

DATAnews.bitcoin.com

France’s 2-0 semifinal defeat to Spain eliminated one of the most heavily backed teams on U.S. sportsbooks, wiping out major outright and player-prop liabilities.

NEWSFortune

The prediction markets company has planned to offer the wagers as a way to hedge travel risks, but critics warned the contracts could be misused.

NEWSPBS

WATCH: Trump believes his Kalshi-betting teleprompter operator is a 'disgrace,' Leavitt says PBS

NEWSSTAT

Pharmalittle: We're reading about Kalshi bets on clinical trials, a Merck cholesterol pill, and more STAT

NEWSSports Illustrated

There is no bigger stage than the World Cup final and third-place game to settle the Golden Boot. “Markets now favor Lionel Messi over Kylian Mbappé to win his

NEWSnytimes.com

A technical assistant to President Trump won around $100,000, according to the prediction market, which flagged the activity to the federal government.

NEWSForbes

Kalshi Is Letting People Bet On Clinical Trials And FDA Drug Decisions Forbes

NEWSRoute Fifty

Governors ban state employees from insider trading on prediction markets Route Fifty

NEWSArizona Capitol Times

Maricopa County adopts prediction market ban for employees Arizona Capitol Times

NEWSBloomberg

Proposed prediction market ETFs risk missing the point

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A White House teleprompter operator who has worked behind the scenes of Donald Trump’s biggest speeches since 2016 is now the subject of a federal investigation into whether he used advance knowledge of the president’s remarks to win more than $100,000 on a prediction market, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to […]

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is leaning on Spain over Argentina to win the World Cup. There is a case to make on both sides.

NEWSPolitico

White House teleprompter operator placed on leave amid prediction market insider trading investigation Politico

NEWSYahoo Finance

Kalshi hopes to explore users betting on canceled flights Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYThe Guardian

Kalshi to offer betting on drug trial results and FDA regulatory decisions The Guardian

REGULATORYthehill.com

The prediction market platform Kalshi said Thursday that it flagged suspicious trades on President Trump's speeches to federal regulators that are reportedly connected to the president's longtime teleprompter operator. ABC News reported that Gabriel Perez, who was first hired by Trump in 2016, is in settlement talks with the Commodity…

NEWSThe Block

President Trump's teleprompter is under scrutiny following a report alleging that he used insider knowledge to place bets on Kalshi.

NEWSLegis1

Sports Prediction Markets Need Federal Protections Legis1

NEWSSemafor

Kalshi bets on Wall Street Semafor

NEWSTradingView

Kalshi flags irregularities tied to trades on Trump statements, source says TradingView

NEWSDaytona Times

Kalshi's 'Segregation Market' turns Black suffering into a betting line Daytona Times

REGULATORYPlayMichigan

CFTC Orders Kalshi to Restore Voided MI Trades PlayMichigan

NEWSStock Titan

E1’s All-Electric Raceboat Championship Adds Live Prediction Markets Stock Titan

DEALSegr.global

DAZN enters prediction markets space via ADI Predictstreet partnership egr.global

REGULATORYNortheastern Global News

Elections, death, war: Where should regulators draw the line with prediction markets? Northeastern Global News

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi strongly favors Luis Arraez to be traded from the San Francisco Giants.

NEWSReuters

Kalshi to allow bets on clinical trials, FDA decisions Reuters

REGULATORYCNBC

Trump teleprompter operator allegedly made Kalshi bets on president's statements; CFTC investigating CNBC

NEWSCNBC

As prediction markets boom, questions arise over who will be the watchdog CNBC

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Google’s list of states where prediction market ads are prohibited has expanded to four, with the company adding New York and Michigan. Google has added Michigan and New York to the list of states where advertisements for prediction market contracts and related products are prohibited, extending restrictions that already apply in Nevada…

DEALSThe Center Square

Kalshi draws backlash over Jackie Robinson prediction market ad The Center Square

REGULATORYBloomberg

Entain Plc will cut 500 jobs, or about 2% of its global workforce, as the gambling industry grapples with higher UK taxes, tighter regulation and growing competition from prediction markets.

REGULATORYThe Defiant

CFTC Orders Kalshi to Honor Trades a Michigan Court Told It to Cancel The Defiant

RESEARCHCCN.com

Stanford Study Finds Signs of Bitcoin Market Manipulation on Polymarket, $8.2M in Profits Identified CCN.com

NEWSBloomberg

Investors increasingly see gaming bonds as a losing bet.

NEWSBloomberg

As prediction markets draw record trading around events like the World Cup, Jump Trading Group is betting the once-niche contracts are becoming a lasting corner of Wall Street.

NEWSKalshi News

Kalshi launches biotech prediction markets pilot program Kalshi News

VENTUREFortune

Exclusive: Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9 million to challenge heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket Fortune

NEWSYahoo Finance

Kalshi is trying to turn flight cancellations into trades Yahoo Finance

NEWSthestreet.com

The S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs this year. Retail traders are piling into Micron and the SpaceXIPO.

NEWSSTAT

Kalshi comes for biopharma, with prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA approvals STAT

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Detroit Tigers are trending towards keeping Tarik Skubal beyond the MLB trade deadline per Kalshi.

NEWSBloomberg.com

Kalshi Will Offer Sports-Style Betting on Drug Trial Results Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

A small group of traders extracted $8.2 million from Polymarket’s five-minute bitcoin contracts by pushing the spot price on Binance just before settlement, researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University found. Striking New Findings Emerge Polymarket’s fastest bitcoin betting product shows systematic signs of…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The bipartisan proposal, backed by Kalshi, comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny over underage trading and renewed calls for federal gambling standards. Rep.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

CFTC Takes Big Swing in Pushing Back on Michigan Kalshi Order Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHparameter.io

Stanford Study Exposes Manipulation in Polymarket’s Bitcoin Prediction Contracts parameter.io

RESEARCHKuCoin

Stanford Study Reveals Settlement Manipulation in 5-Minute Bitcoin Prediction Markets KuCoin

RESEARCH디지털투데이

Study flags flaws in Polymarket's 5-minute bitcoin bets, calling structure unfavorable to individuals 디지털투데이

NEWSAZ Family

Maricopa County bans employees from profiting on prediction markets AZ Family

RESEARCHBitcoin Foundation

Polymarket 5-Minute Bitcoin Market Enable BTC Price Manipulation Bitcoin Foundation

RESEARCHCointribune

Researchers Uncover The Trick Behind Bitcoin Prediction Market Profits Cointribune

RESEARCHBlockonomi

Stanford Study Reveals How Bitcoin Prediction Markets on Polymarket Face Manipulation Risk Blockonomi

REGULATORYCovers.com

CFTC Instructs Kalshi to Fulfill Open Trades Despite Michigan Court Order Covers.com

RESEARCHFinanceFeeds

Study Finds Signs of Manipulation in Bitcoin Bets on Polymarket FinanceFeeds

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has stopped Kalshi from liquidating sports event contracts that a Michigan court ordered cancelled and refunded. The intervention leaves Michigan’s restriction on new sports trades intact while opening a direct federal-state confrontation over who controls transactions already executed on a…

REGULATORYBriefs Finance

Kalshi Seeks CFTC Approval for Airport Cancellation Bets Briefs Finance

RESEARCHhsjchronicle.com

Prediction Markets Let Californians Bet on Life’s Big Moments — But at What Cost? hsjchronicle.com

RESEARCHThe Cryptonomist

Bitcoin Prediction Markets Expose Spot Price Manipulation Risks The Cryptonomist

NEWSWSJ

Kalshi to Offer Contracts Predicting Flight Cancellations WSJ

REGULATORYAxios

Buffett and Kalshi: Two views of America's gambling boom Axios

NEWSNBC News

Kalshi looks to expand contracts related to air travel delays NBC News

NEWSinc.com

Kalshi Wants You to Make Money Off of Canceled Flights: Inside the Prediction Market's Wild New 'Sky Trading' Plan inc.com

NEWSFuturism

OpenAI Strikes Bold Deal With Kalshi to Mix Together the Most Hated Technologies in Existence: AI and Prediction Markets Futurism

RESEARCHfreesystems.substack.com

Andy Hall and Elliot developed an AI system that grades prediction market resolution rules for clarity using a 10-point rubric, finding it can predict which contracts will be disputed at rates well above chance. Tested on thousands of contracts from Polymarket and Kalshi, the approach demonstrates how AI could help write clearer…

RESEARCHcontraryresearch.substack.com

Contrary Research delivers a comprehensive deep dive into the prediction market industry, tracing its history from the Iowa Electronic Markets through Kalshi and Polymarket's current dominance to the latest sportsbook entrants. The piece analyzes business models, regulatory classification debates, and the critical skew in win…

Wednesday, 15 July 2026
NEWSSports Illustrated

Polymarket is trending towards the New York Yankees on its latest World Series price shift.

NEWSCNBC

Kalshi traders see gas prices crossing $4 by end of July CNBC

NEWSSports Illustrated

LeBron James market on Kalshi shifts towards the Golden State Warriors following recent rumors.

NEWSBloomberg

Your flight? Canceled.

REGULATORYSpectrum News NY1

Federal reg­u­lators order Kalshi to honor pending trades in Michigan; attorney general responds Spectrum News NY1

RESEARCHMenafn

Stanford Study Finds 5-Minute Bitcoin Prediction Markets Susceptible To Manipulation Menafn

NEWSMichigan Advance

Federal agency intervenes in Michigan’s legal fight over Kalshi sports contracts Michigan Advance

PEOPLEthehill.com

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) introduced a bill Wednesday that would require prediction markets and online sportsbook to use facial recognition to verify users' ages to avoid minors from placing bets or trading on platforms.

RESEARCHTradingView

Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation TradingView

NEWSLegis1

Kalshi Hires Squire Patton Boggs on Prediction Markets Legis1

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Seeks to Let Traders Hedge on Flight Cancellation Rates Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHCasino.com

Tribe and State Interests Align In The Fight Against Prediction Markets, Says UNLV Law Professor Danielle Finn Casino.com

REGULATORYsbcamericas.com

CFTC Tells Kalshi to Remain in Michigan Despite Court Order sbcamericas.com

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Stanford Study Says Polymarket Crypto Bets Are Being Manipulated Bloomberg Law News

NEWSCalMatters

Opinion | What Californians could lose betting on life through prediction markets CalMatters

NEWSBitcoin Magazine

Traders Took $8.2 Million From Polymarket’s Five-Minute Bitcoin Bets, Study Found Bitcoin Magazine

RESEARCHBlockonomi

Polymarket Bitcoin Markets Show Manipulation Evidence, Stanford Research Reveals Blockonomi

NEWSSports Illustrated

Prediction markets are shifting Rory McIlroy in the wrong direction at the Open Championship.

REGULATORYCrypto Briefing

Dina Titus critiques Kalshi for exploiting regulatory loophole with sports event contracts Crypto Briefing

RESEARCHthewealthadvisor.com

Prediction Markets Are Exposing A Structural Design Problem thewealthadvisor.com

DEALSUFC.com

UFC Collaborates with Polymarket and Meta to Support Several Veteran-Focused Non-profit Organizations as Part of UFC Freedom 250 Fight Week UFC.com

NEWSYahoo

Opinion - The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker Yahoo

NEWS24/7 Wall St.

"Compute Is the New Oil": Kalshi Just Launched a Way to Bet on the Future Price of AI Computing Power 24/7 Wall St.

NEWSCoinage Coop
REGULATORYthehill.com

Congresswoman Dina Titus argues that prediction market platforms like Kalshi exploit a regulatory loophole by labeling sports bets as financial derivatives to avoid state-level consumer protections and oversight.

NEWSThe Hill

The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker The Hill

REGULATORYnews.bloombergtax.com

One-Man CFTC Speeds Up Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, Crypto news.bloombergtax.com

REGULATORYProject On Government Oversight

Accountability Groups to Congress: Ban Insider Trading on Prediction Markets Project On Government Oversight

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is seeking answers from Polymarket over allegations that paid influencers promoted election misinformation while advertising prediction markets.

NEWSFederal News Network

CPI Falls in June: Trade on Prediction Markets for Fed Decision in July 2026 Federal News Network

NEWSx.com

Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200.

NEWSProactive Investors

Coinsilium backs Predictive Labs' Nijinn to cut through prediction market noise Proactive Investors

NEWSNew York Magazine

Kalshi’s Core Business May Already Be in Serious Trouble New York Magazine

NEWSLos Angeles Times

Millions of dollars were wagered on 'Love Island.' Why Kalshi wants more trades in reality TV Los Angeles Times

NEWSMarkets Media

Kalshi Offers Compute Forward Curves Markets Media

REGULATORYbloomingbit

CFTC Orders Kalshi Not to Comply With Michigan Court’s Trade-Cancellation Order bloomingbit

REGULATORYThe Block

The Czech Republic moved to block Polymarket, joining other European jurisdictions targeting prediction markets over unlicensed gambling.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The CFTC has ordered Kalshi to honor certain Michigan trades despite a state court directive to cancel and refund them. The move opens a new front in the federal regulator’s fight with states over prediction markets.

RESEARCHCryptoRank

New Study Says Prediction Markets Shouldn't Ban Insider Trading CryptoRank

REGULATORYInvestment Executive

CFTC opposes court order against Kalshi Investment Executive

NEWSBenzinga

Iranian Regime to Collapse in 2026? Crypto Prediction Market Betting on This Outcome Even as Trump Threat Benzinga

NEWSProspect Magazine

Polymarket is America, America is Polymarket Prospect Magazine

NEWSMoomoo

Profiting $10.32 Million — A Polymarket Whale's World Cup Prediction Strategy Moomoo

REGULATORYReuters

US derivatives regulator blocks Kalshi from canceling Michigan trades despite court order Reuters

NEWSKalshi News

Compute has a Market-Implied Forward Curve Now Kalshi News

DATAYahoo Finance

World Cup Betting Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume To $50 Billion Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYCrypto Briefing

CFTC blocks Kalshi from canceling Michigan trades despite court order Crypto Briefing

REGULATORYBetter Markets

Lawless CFTC Directs Kalshi to Defy Court Order Better Markets

NEWSGizmodo

Kalshi Wants to Predict the Future of Compute Availability Gizmodo

REGULATORYAMBCrypto

CFTC says states cannot force Kalshi to cancel executed trades AMBCrypto

NEWSCrypto Briefing

Outcome.xyz pushes for permissionless prediction markets on Hyperliquid Crypto Briefing

NEWSCrypto Briefing

Trump's FIFA intervention created 'outside noise' before US World Cup exit, Balogun says, as crypto prediction markets cashed in Crypto Briefing

NEWSCDC Gaming

Michigan ban on Kalshi sports contracts extended, with geofencing to begin Aug. 12 CDC Gaming

NEWSeFinancialCareers

Kalshi's CEO wants to replicate the "aura" of Stripe's Collison brothers eFinancialCareers

NEWSThe Verge

ChatGPT is now citing Kalshi data. The Verge

NEWSKalshi News

Kalshi Announces Compute Forward Curves, Becoming the Exchange for the AI Economy Kalshi News

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Analyzes 23 million moneyline trades on Kalshi across major sport leagues and finds two systematic ways market prices fail as probabilities. Calibration is not static: parameters sit near perfect-calibration values mid-contract but depart sharply as expiry approaches, with the final ten minutes producing a step-like Prelec curve…

Tuesday, 14 July 2026
NEWSPort City Daily

North Carolina becomes first state to tax prediction markets with new state budget Port City Daily

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The Czech Republic has become the latest European country to block Polymarket as unlicensed gambling, adding the crypto-based prediction market to its official blocklist and giving internet providers 15 days to cut access. Another European door closes as Gibraltar’s opens The Czech Finance Ministry added Polymarket to its List of…

REGULATORYLaw.com

CFTC Defies Michigan Court Order, Orders Kalshi to Complete Trades Law.com

REGULATORYCoinDesk
NEWSHouse.gov

Krishnamoorthi Presses Polymarket Over Its Paid Influencer Deals with Election Deniers House.gov

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

CFTC Says Kalshi Can Resume Wagers Blocked by Michigan Judge Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHGaming Today

Prediction Markets Hit Record Volume, But Still Face Liquidity Gap Gaming Today

VENTUREThe Sporting News

Use the leading MLB All-Star Game prediction apps and score $145 in bonuses for the AL vs. NL on Tuesday night.

REGULATORYThe Block

Jurisdiction over prediction market platforms is an ongoing dispute between the CFTC and multiple state regulators.

NEWSInvestmentNews

After SpaceX, ETF XOVR taps into prediction market demand with $30 million Kalshi investment InvestmentNews

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi has an event contract out for when LeBron James will make his decision. James is rumored to be making his decision this week at Fanatics Fest.

NEWSFinTech Global

XOVR pours $30m into prediction market firm Kalshi FinTech Global

NEWSCornerstone Research

Regulation of Trading in Prediction Markets Cornerstone Research

NEWSBitcoin Foundation

World Cup Push Brings Polymarket to Blockchain.com Bitcoin Foundation

NEWSCoinDesk

Prediction markets saw over $50 billion in volume as World Cup kicked off, crushing traditional sportsbooks CoinDesk

NEWSBloomberg

Kalshi Inc. has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power, joining the ranks of exchange and index operators attempting to build markets around the commodity powering artificial intelligence.

NEWSHouse Committee on Agriculture (.gov)

Examining Prediction Markets: Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Markets House Committee on Agriculture (.gov)

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

A Michigan judge gave Kalshi 30 days to implement a geofencing technology before imposing $500,000 daily fines. A Michigan judge has extended a temporary restraining order requiring Kalshi to stop offering sports-event contracts in the state and has given the prediction market until Aug.

NEWSPulse 2.0

XOVR Invests $30 Million In Kalshi To Expand Private Market Strategy Pulse 2.0

NEWSPR Newswire

Blockchain.com Taps Polymarket To Embed Prediction Markets In App PR Newswire

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSSportico

Prediction market operators are brainstorming their next hit product as competition intensifies. Some experts believe this will lead them to launch sports-themed perpetual futures contracts, a betting structure popularized by cryptocurrency backers.

RESEARCHKalshi News

Price Distortion in LA Mayor’s Race Corrects Within Seconds: A Case Study Kalshi News

DEALSBloomberg

Crypto brokerage Blockchain.com Group Holdings Inc. has partnered with Polymarket to offer prediction markets to its users in time for the World Cup semifinals.

NEWSYahoo Finance

Kalshi Pro Launches as Robinhood Plans to Go Its Own Way Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Kalshi, Polymarket: Gambling or Financial Products Under US Law? Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction anywhere to enact a purpose-built regulatory framework for prediction markets, carving the fast-growing sector out of its general gambling law. The move sets the British Overseas Territory sharply apart from mainland Europe, where regulators are moving to restrict these platforms.

NEWSAxios

Kalshi traders back LeBron return to Cleveland Axios

NEWSqz.com

Kalshi is launching a pro trading terminal for its most active prediction market traders qz.com

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Three California tribes have asked the Ninth Circuit to revive their bid to block Kalshi’s sports event contracts on tribal lands. The appeal opens a new front in the prediction market’s regulatory fight: whether its federal exchange status can shield it from tribal governments invoking federal Indian gaming law.

REGULATORYCBS Sports

Are sports prediction markets legal? Status of Kalshi and Polymarket in all 50 states CBS Sports

DEALSBitcoin Foundation

Kalshi Pro Goes Live for Traders Managing Several Markets at Once Bitcoin Foundation

NEWSNBC News

‘Love Island’ fans are coupling up with prediction markets NBC News

REGULATORYCasino.org

Gibraltar Backs Prediction Markets in Push to Remain Top iGaming Jurisdiction Casino.org

RESEARCHTekedia

Michael Burry Blasts Prediction Markets As ‘Gambling Platforms’ Operating Through ‘Regulatory Loophole.’ Tekedia

Monday, 13 July 2026
NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

The first full week of the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) crowned three champions in Paris, while prediction market traders spread more than $558,000 in reported volume across the Polymarket and Kalshi events. Three Champions Set the Early Pace 100 Thieves defeated NRG 3-1 in the Valorant grand final, with Cryocells earning MVP honors;…

NEWSInvestmentNews

Goldman leads wave of prediction market bans at financial firms InvestmentNews

NEWSVanity Fair

Love Island Faces Its Biggest Bombshell Yet: Prediction Markets Vanity Fair

NEWSFF News

Kalshi Unveils 'Kalshi Pro' Desktop Terminal to Bridge Retail Prediction Markets and Institutional Trading FF News

REGULATORYBusiness Insider

'Gambling no matter what anyone calls it': 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry bashes prediction markets Business Insider

NEWSThe Block

Expected to launch in September, v1 will enable users to margin their entire Polymarket portfolios to place additional leveraged bets.

NEWSPYMNTS.com

North Carolina Law Officially Makes Prediction Markets Legal in the State PYMNTS.com

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Across 52 distinct markets monitored by Bitcoin.com News, over $5.81 billion floods World Cup prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, shifting liquidity for traders. Prediction markets have reached unprecedented liquidity milestones during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, capturing billions of dollars in volume as digital asset traders…

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Prediction Market Approval Offers Shield for North Carolina Tax Bloomberg Law News

NEWSKalshi News

Kalshi Launches Advanced Trading Terminal Kalshi News

NEWSPR Newswire

XOVR Expands Private Market Strategy with $30 Million Investment in Kalshi PR Newswire

NEWSMarketWatch

Why prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often fail the average investor MarketWatch

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Matchbook has partnered with ADI PredictStreet to bring regulated prediction markets to major jurisdictions – it could be a game-changer. We spoke exclusively to company insiders.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Rules governing prediction markets in Gibraltar distinguish the exchanges from gambling and do not allow self-certification. Gibraltar took its next step toward becoming a validating force in Europe’s fledgling licensed prediction market industry with the release of its first set of regulations that create a new category for the…

REGULATORYLAist

LA therapists are seeing more young patients with gambling problems. They blame Kalshi LAist

DATACNBC

The platform is designed to alleviate problems the company's most active traders have run into, according to a memo provided to CNBC.

NEWSEvent Horizon | Dustin Gouker

Kalshi Is Crushing Everyone In App Downloads Event Horizon | Dustin Gouker

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Judges repeatedly challenged Kalshi’s attempt to distinguish its sports-event contracts from conventional wagers as California tribes seek to revive their bid for an injunction. A Ninth Circuit panel repeatedly compared Kalshi’s sports-event contracts to traditional sports wagers on Friday, pressing the prediction market operator to…

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Alberta’s iGaming debut, escalating prediction market disputes and a key IRS hearing set the stage for another consequential week for the gambling industry. This week in the gambling industry is highlighted by Alberta opening its regulated online market on July 13, an IRS hearing on gambling loss deductions and Maine’s sweepstakes casino…

NEWSFinancial Times

Turning everything into a wager can get ugly, but has its upsides

REGULATORYthehill.com

Prediction market users have wagered in excess of $197 million on midterm election results, according to NBC News. The outlet analyzed 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket for its report, published on Friday.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

World Cup Bets on Prediction Markets Test Tax Edge Over Gambling Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHX @lzminsky

Distinguishes between two meanings of 'hedge' — trader/market-making (position offset) and corporate finance (exposure matching) — and argues that prediction markets' contract-first approach creates persistent basis risk for would-be corporate hedgers. Warns that mis-selling mismatched binaries as corporate hedges would hand ammunition…

Sunday, 12 July 2026
NEWSNorthwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Polymarket out to reform image for its potential U.S. customers Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

REGULATORYBloomberg

Americans using prediction markets to bet on the World Cup may face a lighter tax burden than peers wagering through sportsbooks thanks to tax breaks aimed at investments.

NEWSTribal Business News

Q+A: James Siva on the growing threat prediction markets pose to tribal gaming Tribal Business News

DEALSCrypto Briefing

Polymarket to integrate TWAP for crypto markets amid criticism of slow improvements Crypto Briefing

NEWSBusiness Insider

Kalshi is sparring with a think tank over claims users lose millions betting against pro traders on the platform Business Insider

DEALSYahoo Sports

Conor McGregor Fight Prediction Market Apps: Use Trading Bonuses for UFC 329 Yahoo Sports

Saturday, 11 July 2026
REGULATORYFort Worth Star-Telegram

Sports betting is illegal in Texas. What about prediction markets like Kalshi?

RESEARCHAnalytics Insight

Crypto News Today: North Carolina Sets First State Rules for CFTC Prediction Markets Analytics Insight

NEWSSports Illustrated

Darryn Peterson jumped AJ Dybantsa as the favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year.

RESEARCHThe Coin Republic

Prediction Market Restrictions Expand as Goldman Sachs Limits Employee Trades Over Insider Trading Risks The Coin Republic

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi leans on Arch Manning to be selected first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft.

NEWSLas Vegas Sun

Dean Heller defects from Nevada gaming interests to champion prediction markets Las Vegas Sun

NEWSthestreet.com

Michael Burry isn’t simply betting on casino stocks. The “Big Short” investor’s fresh stakes in DraftKings (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) raise a wider concern for the sports-betting industry: Are prediction markets too huge for authorities to ignore?

NEWSLaw360

Kalshi Fights 'Extraordinary' Bid To Halt Wash. Operations Law360

NEWSCasino.org

Polymarket Wants to Join Rival Kalshi in Offering Margin Trading Casino.org

NEWSTradingView

Inside the Prediction Markets: Kalshi Expands Perpetuals as World Cup Trading Hits New Highs TradingView

NEWSsbcamericas.com

SBC Details Latest Shake Ups in US Prediction Market Space sbcamericas.com

NEWSBloomberg.com

Robinhood-Backed Prediction Market Bets Surge on World Cup Mania Bloomberg.com

NEWSBusiness Insider

'Love Island' fans are being bombarded by Kalshi betting ads on TikTok Business Insider

Friday, 10 July 2026
REGULATORYTech Times

Polymarket Applies for Margin Trading License While Under Active CFTC Investigation Tech Times

REGULATORYYahoo Sports

Lazio risk €19m Polymarket sponsorship deal after platform banned Yahoo Sports

NEWSNEWS10 ABC

Empire State Weekly: Prediction market regulations NEWS10 ABC

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Kalshi, Tribes Quarrel Over State Gambling Agreements on Appeal Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYinc.com

Prediction Markets Are Exploding—but the Corporate Crackdown Has Already Begun inc.com

NEWSBitcoin Foundation

Kalshi Looks Beyond Prediction Markets With Gold, FX Perps Bitcoin Foundation

NEWSCarolina Journal

NC budget raises sports-betting tax, adds prediction markets Carolina Journal

NEWSSyracuse.com

Spain vs. Belgium predictions: Polymarket prices, props and best bet for World Cup quarterfinal Syracuse.com

NEWSWTVB

Wall Street giants bar staff from finance and politics prediction markets, source says WTVB

NEWSSports Illustrated

Yordan Alvarez is pulling away in the AL MVP race on Kalshi.

NEWSNBC News

Prediction market users have traded nearly $200 million on midterm elections so far NBC News

REGULATORYthehill.com

Goldman Sachs is placing restrictions on employee trading on some prediction markets, a source familiar confirmed to The Hill on Friday. Staff at the investment banking giant are permitted to place wagers related to sports and entertainment but are barred from trading on markets tied to specific companies, financial markets or election…

NEWSAlabama Political Reporter

Opinion | As prediction markets invade, Alabama loses Alabama Political Reporter

NEWSCoinDesk

Polymarket takes next step in U.S. comeback with margin trading plan CoinDesk

NEWSThe Laziali

Lazio have been dealt an unforeseen blow, as their main sponsor, Polymarket, is facing a major legal storm in Italy.The BackgroundAfter almost three years without a sponsor on the front of their jerse...

NEWSNew York Post

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley ban employees from making certain bets on prediction markets: report New York Post

NEWSBloomberg

Rabid interest in the World Cup has helped to drive more than $3 billion of wagers on a prediction market backed by Robinhood Markets Inc. and Susquehanna International Group, which launched just a few months ago.

RESEARCHWorld Casino News

Wall Street Banks Add Prediction Market Trading Rules World Casino News

NEWSnytimes.com

Goldman Sachs is the latest firm to restrict how employees use the popular betting platforms.

RESEARCHDecrypt

North Carolina Bill Recognizes CFTC's ‘Federal Regulatory Authority’ Over Prediction Markets Decrypt

REGULATORYBitcoin Foundation

Polymarket Seeks Margin Trading License for US Event Bets Bitcoin Foundation

RESEARCHMoney.ca

Why 97% of prediction market traders lose Money.ca

REGULATORYCoinDesk
REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Kalshi’s loss in New York, new taxes, record trading volumes and fresh policy initiatives marked another eventful week for prediction markets. A federal court’s rejection of Kalshi’s preemption arguments in New York became the leading prediction market story of the week.

REGULATORYThe Block

North Carolina's new law taxes prediction market platforms at 6% of their net trading fee revenue that is attributable to North Carolina residents.

REGULATORYThe Block

Polymarket's rival platform, Kalshi, already received US regulatory approval to provide margin trading back in March.

RESEARCHcw34.com

Betting on the Future: Prediction markets gain attention in Florida cw34.com

REGULATORYCasino.org

Soldier Accused of Polymarket Trades on Maduro Capture Seeks Dismissal of CFTC Case Casino.org

NEWSReuters

Wall Street banks rule on staff betting on prediction markets, sources say Reuters

REGULATORYAmerican Banker

Prediction markets are unreliable truth machines: lawsuit American Banker

Thursday, 9 July 2026
REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

North Carolina has broken with the wave of states fighting prediction markets in court, using its new budget to tax platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket at 6% while explicitly declining to regulate them – a posture that effectively recognizes federal authority over the sector even as other states sue to assert their own. Sportsbooks in…

NEWSArizona Mirror

Hobbs bars Arizona state employees from using government info to bet on prediction markets Arizona Mirror

REGULATORYFocus Gaming News

Dutch gambling regulator upholds Polymarket sanction Focus Gaming News

REGULATORYCNBC

Former Nevada Sen. Dean Heller on the difference between prediction markets and gambling CNBC

REGULATORYBloomberg

Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the US, a move that would let users bet on events with less capital upfront and help the prediction market platform attract more sophisticated traders.

NEWSFinancial Times

Nascent platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket pose challenges to compliance policies at heavily regulated banks

NEWSDavis Wright Tremaine

Prediction Markets & Insider Trading: What Every Compliance Program Needs to Know Now Davis Wright Tremaine

NEWSSports Illustrated

Travis Kelce retirement markets on Kalshi plummet after Taylor Swift marriage.

NEWSCNBC

CNBC reached out to 50 companies about what are their trading policies for employees on prediction markets. A handful had an answer.

REGULATORYBloomberg

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has banned employees from trading on prediction markets except for sports and entertainment bets, in one of the most pointed efforts by a Wall Street firm grappling with the new regulatory issues raised by the boom in betting on events.

NEWSThe Sporting News

Use the best France-Morocco prediction market apps on Thursday and claim over $150 in bonuses for World Cup trades.

NEWSKTAR News 92.3 FM

Prediction market insider trading targeted by Arizona governor KTAR News 92.3 FM

NEWSThe Guardian

People in the UK: have you used prediction markets to bet on the World Cup or other events? The Guardian

NEWSMMA Junkie

Get $60 from Polymarket & Kalshi with Code SBWIRE to Trade on McGregor vs Holloway UFC 329 MMA Junkie

REGULATORYSportico

Sports fans can now risk their money on whether the rain, rain will go away. Kalshi has opened a new frontier for prediction markets by introducing bets on whether individual sporting events will have weather delays.

NEWSProgramming Insider

In Prediction Markets, Speed Is the Edge, and Banana Predict Was Built for It Programming Insider

REGULATORYSeeking Alpha

Kalshi talks with regulators about expanding perpetual futures offerings - report (KALSHI:Private) Seeking Alpha

RESEARCHGlobal News

The future of prediction markets Global News

NEWSCenter for American Progress

Government Insiders Must Be Prevented From Profiting on Prediction Markets at the Expense of National Security Center for American Progress

NEWSReuters

Coinbase restores prediction markets trading after technical issue Reuters

NEWSThe Quantum Insider

Guest Post: The Polymarket Bet Quantum Could Break The Quantum Insider

NEWS24/7 Wall St.

What Prediction Markets Say About 3 of America’s Most At-Risk Brands 24/7 Wall St.

NEWSYahoo Finance

Google Bans Prediction Market Transactions Amid Backlash Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYReuters

EXCLUSIVE: Kalshi in talks with regulators to expand never-expiring derivatives to new areas Reuters

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The former CFTC commissioner and former nominee to lead the agency will serve as a senior adviser to the industry group backed by Kalshi, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Robinhood. Brian Quintenz, the former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner whose nomination to chair the agency was withdrawn last year, has joined the…

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Markets’ Tribal Clash Features Dueling Federal Laws Bloomberg Law News

NEWSKalshi News

Graham Platner suspends campaign as Kalshi traders predict what's next for Maine Democrats Kalshi News

NEWSBloomberg Law News

North Carolina Provides Prediction Market Tax, Increases Sports Wagering Tax Bloomberg Law News

NEWSYahoo Finance

The Hottest Prediction Market in Crypto Just Left Solana, But Why? Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYPYMNTS.com

CFTC Investigation of Polymarket Broadens Compliance Questions for Prediction Markets PYMNTS.com

RESEARCHiGamingToday.com

North Carolina Governor Approves New Taxes on Sports Betting and Prediction Markets iGamingToday.com

REGULATORYSpectrum News NY1

Federal judge denies Kalshi's request to override N.Y.'s gambling laws Spectrum News NY1

NEWSSports Illustrated

An even line is set for the Wimbledon semifinals between Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova.

NEWSCoinDesk

After a four-year U.S. ban, Polymarket mounts a major comeback campaign CoinDesk

M&AThe Standard (HK)

Meta builds own ‘Polymarket’ following failed Kalshi acquisition | Zero Shot Inference | Allen Au The Standard (HK)

REGULATORYWGRZ

Court allows NY to enforce gambling laws on Kalshi WGRZ

NEWSYahoo Finance

Polymarket Launches U.S. Marketing Campaign Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYBettors Insider

Lawyers Say CFTC 'Has the Edge' Over States as Prediction Markets Fight Heads Toward Supreme Court Showdown Bettors Insider

NEWSFinancialContent

From Token Sniping to Prediction Markets: The Banana Predict Terminal Arrives FinancialContent

RESEARCHX @lzminsky

Argues that institutional adoption of prediction market event contracts will follow the same path as synthetic risk transfer in credit markets — not through convincing risk managers to hold naked binaries, but through structured product wrappers that plug into existing credit/yield mandates. Traces the €800bn SRT/CLN market as precedent,…

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Develops and estimates a volatility model tailored to binary prediction markets, combining a Wright-Fisher deadline-resolution component (capturing how binary uncertainty resolves over time) and a Glosten-Milgrom order-flow component (capturing volatility from informed trading via spreads and volume). Using a large panel of Kalshi…

Wednesday, 8 July 2026
REGULATORYTimes Union

Federal judge denies Kalshi bid to block New York crackdown Times Union

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Europe’s top securities regulator has clarified that many prediction-market event contracts already fall under the EU’s existing retail ban on binary options – meaning the restriction is live law, not a proposed rule – while contracts issued as blockchain tokens may instead be caught by the bloc’s crypto framework. The statement leaves…

REGULATORYCNBC

The investor believes regulators will eventually crack down on prediction markets after competition from the upstarts pressured the stocks of sportsbooks.

REGULATORYWXXI News

Kalshi appeals after federal judge sides with New York gambling regulators WXXI News

DATAnews.bitcoin.com

Combined trading volume across the two largest prediction-market platforms surged 75% in June to $44.8 billion, a record for the sector, as the FIFA World Cup pulled a wave of event-contract activity onto Kalshi and Polymarket. The month tested whether prediction-market infrastructure could sustain trading around a single global event –…

NEWSLaw.com

Prediction Market Whirlwind: A Recap Law.com

REGULATORYReuters

Judge rejects Kalshi bid to block New York gambling enforcement law Reuters

NEWSCourthouse News

Kalshi loses bid to stop New York from regulating prediction markets Courthouse News

NEWSBarron's

Love Island Is the New Bombshell for Prediction Markets Barron's

NEWSCoinDesk
REGULATORYSpectrum News

Gambling platform Kalshi denied preliminary injunction in New York Spectrum News

RESEARCHYogonet

North Carolina budget raises sports betting tax to 23%, adds prediction market levy Yogonet

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi's World Cup prediction markets has clear winners and losers going into the quarterfinals.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

North Carolina became one of the first states to tax prediction markets without creating a regulatory framework. The move could trigger another clash over federal and state authority.

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Denied Reprieve From New York Gaming Regulatory Crackdown Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

A new Macquarie report estimates Kalshi accounted for roughly two-thirds of prediction market trading in June as the FIFA World Cup accelerated mainstream adoption. Prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in trading volume during June, according to a new report from Macquarie Equity Research.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

ADI Predictstreet is the new kid on the prediction market block — its trading volume may be small, yet in exclusive comments to Gambling Insider, insiders claim it has a winning strategy Gambling Insider can reveal that ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market of the FIFA World Cup 2026, has generated around 126,000 trades in […]

DEALSinc.com

Kalshi Is Winning the Prediction Markets Trust Battle. This Is Its Secret inc.com

NEWSCNBC

Speculators now see just a 44% chance that traffic flows return to normal by Dec. 1.

NEWSBloomberg

Susquehanna International Group has lined up $500 million to work with institutions that want to use prediction markets to hedge the economic risks associated with various World Cup outcomes.

REGULATORYCoinGape

Ripple Lawsuit-Linked Judge Torres Hands Kalshi a Big Loss in NY Prediction Markets Case CoinGape

DEALSPlayMichigan

NCPG Responds to Michigan's Withdrawal Over Kalshi Ties PlayMichigan

NEWSAssociated Press
NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has enabled instant bitcoin deposits over the Lightning Network, with new rails powered by the Spark protocol crediting funds in under one second. Opening up New Avenues Polymarket has switched on instant bitcoin deposits via the Lightning Network, a payments layer built on top of the…

RESEARCHgamingintelligence.com

North Carolina implements prediction markets tax and raises tax rate for sports betting gamingintelligence.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Judge says congressional history suggests lawmakers sought to prohibit the types of sports-event contracts offered by Kalshi. A federal judge has denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction against New York regulators, ruling that the company failed to demonstrate that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) preempts the state’s…

RESEARCHBloomberg.com

Prediction Markets Can Work Without Money on the Line Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYThe Block

The judge said New York gambling laws, as applied to Kalshi's sports-event contracts, are not preempted by the federal Commodity Exchange Act.

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

Judge Analisa Torres, best known for the SEC v. Ripple ruling, has denied Kalshi’s bid for a preliminary injunction against New York gaming regulators, finding the state’s gambling laws are not preempted by federal commodities law.

NEWSSeeking Alpha

Kalshi bets shift to Quantum, semiconductor stakes over OpenAI government deal (OPENAI:Private) Seeking Alpha

REGULATORYDecrypt

News Explorer — Polymarket Users Sue Prediction Market Platform Over Strategy Bitcoin Sale Outcome Decrypt

REGULATORYThe Cryptonomist

Polymarket Lawsuit: Did Bitcoin Market Rules Change After Trading Closed? The Cryptonomist

NEWSinc.com

Polymarket Released the Most Unexpected Ad of the Year. Every Marketer Should Study It inc.com

REGULATORYCasino.org

Polymarket Sued by Traders Claiming $6.5M ‘Scam’ Over Bitcoin Prediction Market Casino.org

DATACasino.org

Macquarie: Kalshi Notional Volume Reaches $33 Billion in June Casino.org

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Prediction-market traders now see the withdrawal of Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner as close to inevitable within weeks, after a new allegation triggered a collapse in Democratic support. Contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi rapidly repriced his exit, the seat’s partisan odds, and even his likely replacement – each in a…

PEOPLE24/7 Wall St.
NEWSYahoo Finance

Spotify’s streaming fraud issue runs so deep that Kalshi traders are profiting from rigged charts Yahoo Finance

NEWSYahoo Finance

Will Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000? Kalshi Traders Predict Fall as Analysts Debate 4-Year Cycle Yahoo Finance

DEALSYahoo Finance

Prospect Markets to Enter US Prediction Markets Through Partnership backed by Crypto.com Yahoo Finance

Tuesday, 7 July 2026
NEWSCNBC

Speculators think the massive rally in the Nasdaq-100 since the lows following the U.S.-Iran war will be more subdued in the second half of 2026.

REGULATORYKERA News

Texas Medical Association proposes age limit on prediction markets to prevent gambling ‘addiction’ KERA News

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Democrats Ask Judiciary to Bar Judges from Prediction Markets Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYReadWrite

US soldier challenges CFTC Polymarket lawsuit ReadWrite

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

LeBron James has told the Los Angeles Lakers he will not return, and prediction market bettors are already betting big on where he lands next. The four-time NBA champion ended an eight-year run with the Lakers this month, closing out a Los Angeles chapter that began in 2018 and included a championship in the pandemic-shortened […]

NEWSChicago Tribune

Chicago weighs ban on Kalshi and Polymarket bets for insider city staff Chicago Tribune

NEWSWillkie Farr & Gallagher

State of Play — Prediction Market Exchanges Willkie Farr & Gallagher

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

North Carolina’s Stein OKs Taxes on Prediction Markets, Gambling Bloomberg Law News

NEWSFox News

Graham Platner's chances of dropping out skyrocket to 94% after party revolt: Kalshi Fox News

NEWSWTTW News

Ban on City Employees From Using Private Info in Prediction Markets Advances WTTW News

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is favoring Jackson Koivun and Max Homa above the rest at the ISCO Championship.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Democrats Probe Kalshi, Polymarket Over Trump Audit Immunity Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The defense argues the Maduro-related prediction market contracts were not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and says the CFTC exceeded its authority in bringing the case. The U.S.

REGULATORYCrypto News

Polymarket hit with New York lawsuit over Strategy Bitcoin market Crypto News

REGULATORYthestreet.com

Michael Saylor's shocking Bitcoin sale triggers a lawsuit against Polymarket thestreet.com

NEWSfintechanddigitalassets.com

Prediction Markets: ESMA Confirms Application of Binary Options Product Intervention Measures to Event Contracts fintechanddigitalassets.com

NEWSSports Illustrated

The Boston Celtics are trending down on Kalshi after trading Jaylen Brown.

REGULATORYDailyCoin

Polymarket Lawsuit Over BTC Sale Bet: Traders Dispute $797K Market Settlement DailyCoin

DEALSSports Business Journal

Pro Padel League inks Kalshi to multiyear marketing deal Sports Business Journal

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi continues to serve Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff as they shift up the board with the quarterfinals up next. Naomi Osaka knocked out pre-tournament favori

NEWSNew Jersey Monitor

Prediction market tax proposal to return in fall, NJ Assembly speaker says New Jersey Monitor

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Plaintiffs allege the prediction market platform improperly changed its interpretation of a Strategy Bitcoin contract after the outcome had already occurred, denying payouts on winning “Yes” positions. Two Polymarket users have sued the company in New York, alleging Polymarket improperly changed the interpretation of a Strategy Bitcoin…

NEWSAxios

Budget deal would authorize prediction markets in North Carolina Axios

REGULATORYWho Are the Real World Cup Winners?

Gambling Insider can reveal that, contrary to reports in the New York Times and Bloomberg, the partnership between ADI Predictstreet and Kalshi is not as enmeshed as some believed. When asked whether it was accurate that Kalshi is providing market-making services to ADI Predictstreet, sending volumes its way, and discussing plans to…

REGULATORYThe Block

Plaintiffs allege Polymarket wrongly resolved the market as "No" despite Strategy's SEC filing disclosing it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31.

REGULATORYReason Magazine
REGULATORYTheLines.com

Polymarket Files Lawsuit Against New Mexico Prediction Market Crackdown TheLines.com

RESEARCHX @ZEITFinance

Explores the uncomfortable overlap between prediction markets and parametric insurance through the lens of Polymarket's wildfire contracts during the 2025 Los Angeles fires. Argues that when traditional insurance fails due to overhead and bureaucracy, event contracts function as frictionless climate hedges with instant, objective payouts…

RESEARCHmarginalrevolution.com

Alex Tabarrok uses Polymarket's Maine Democratic primary market as a worked example of how conditional probability estimates can be reverse-engineered from prediction market price moves, then argues that Robin Hanson's decision markets (conditional contracts with refund provisions) would give cleaner, continuous estimates of exactly the…

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Classical theory ties forecasting accuracy to trading profit, but only for automated market makers; on central limit order book exchanges, informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed heuristics profit. The authors prove a formal equivalence that works in both settings: for any strictly proper scoring rule, a "proper…

Monday, 6 July 2026
NEWSWSJ

How Polymarket Made Fake Bets Go Viral WSJ

VENTUREThe Sporting News

Learn how to use the best USA-Belgium prediction market apps on Monday and score over $100 in welcome bonuses for the match.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kylian Mbappe leads over Messi to win the World Cup Golden Boot on Kalshi. Erling Haaland jumps into contention.

PEOPLEnews.bitcoin.com

The alleged lobbying attempt by President Donald Trump to clear the U.S. team’s top scorer, Folarin Balogun, has sparked interest in prediction markets, with a majority of traders betting on his presence in the upcoming Round of 16 match against Belgium.

NEWSYahoo Finance

Polymarket Trader Loses Over $11 Million on 2026 World Cup Bets in 10 Days Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

We chatted with the founders of ProphetX and 365Prediction about the companies’ prediction market ambitions in the face of stiff competition and regulatory risk. Every day we open Twitter, it seems, there’s news of another company with designs on the prediction market space.

NEWStech-insider.org

Will China Invade Taiwan Before the 2026 Midterms? The Prediction Market Says 3% tech-insider.org

NEWSYahoo Finance

World Cup Drives Prediction Market Betting To Record Highs Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYAxios

Michigan court sidelines Kalshi sports markets Axios

NEWSPopular Information | Judd Legum

How Kalshi infects the news Popular Information | Judd Legum

NEWSThe Sporting News

See the best Ronaldo goal props vs Spain to trade on prediction markets for the World Cup.

DEALSBitcoin Foundation

Polymarket Trader Loses $11.6M in 10 Days — What’s Happening on Prediction Markets During World Cup 2026 Bitcoin Foundation

DEALSAffPapa

Polymarket enters Turkey through Paribu integration AffPapa

REGULATORYAffPapa

Michigan gaming regulator exits NCPG over Kalshi deal AffPapa

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Prediction market litigation continues this week, with North Carolina potentially becoming the next battleground. Meanwhile, World Cup interest keeps driving betting and prediction market activity.

NEWSPunchbowl News

Vault: Hill staffers expecting more prediction market limits Punchbowl News

NEWSBloomberg

What it takes to win on Kalshi and Polymarket.

REGULATORYBloomberg

Here’s a couple things about prediction markets. A lot of it is pure gambling and speculation, much of it on things with very little economic relevance.

RESEARCHCBC

Think you can win on prediction markets? Here's why you're more likely to lose CBC

NEWSCNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Trump sees red, prediction markets score and NATO's defensive CNBC

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

On July 3, ESMA issued a statement warning that some event contracts resembling binary options could fall under current derivatives regulation. The regulator stressed that firms offering these instruments should assess whether these contracts fall under this classification to comply with regulatory requirements.

NEWSYahoo Sports

Rare FIFA Article 27 Decision Clears Balogun for Belgium, Sending Polymarket Into Overdrive Yahoo Sports

RESEARCHpanteraresearchlab.xyz

Pantera Research Lab's empirical study of the $7.8B short-term crypto prediction market on Polymarket and Kalshi, analyzing fee economics, maker rebate structures, and settlement-driven trading patterns. Finds Polymarket's 5-minute market is 86% bot-driven by wallet count, with Binance spot volume spiking 12-17x in the final seconds of…

Sunday, 5 July 2026
REGULATORYDeseret News

Opinion: Prediction markets violate Utah’s gambling laws with sports betting Deseret News

REGULATORYCDC Gaming

Michigan regulator leaves National Council on Problem Gambling over Kalshi membership CDC Gaming

NEWSCoinDesk

Prediction market roundup: Kalshi, state cases from the past week CoinDesk

NEWSYahoo Finance
NEWSCrypto Economy

Hedgehog Markets Review: An innovative decentralized prediction market Crypto Economy

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSSports Illustrated

Joe Burrow's MVP price on Kalshi is sliding beyond other major contenders.

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSWIRED

Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town WIRED

NEWSWRAL

Prediction market betting would be authorized in NC’s new budget. What it means for sports betting WRAL

RESEARCHThe Observer

Prediction markets enjoy their own big day as fans bet on wedding The Observer

DATAthestreet.com

Robinhood has spent the last year adding businesses at a pace few brokerages can match. Prediction markets, banking, an AI trading assistant, and a new credit card all launched within months of each other.

Saturday, 4 July 2026
DEALSNewsCord

Kalshi Posts Record $31 Billion June Volume as 2026 FIFA World Cup Fuels Prediction Markets NewsCord

DATATradingView

Kalshi hits record June trading volume as World Cup fuels prediction markets TradingView

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSCNBC

Trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket both hit record highs in June. Rothera, a new prediction market platform, was also able to manage $2 billion in volume.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Max Holloway is heavily favored on Kalshi to defeat Conor McGregor at UFC 329.

NEWSFortune

Joey Chestnut is predicted to eat 70 hot dogs this year, just as prediction markets make it easier to gamble on the odds.

REGULATORYCard Player

Lawsuit Against Polymarket Claims Alleged Deceptive Marketing - Poker News Card Player

REGULATORYCasino.org

Michigan Ends NCPG Membership Over Kalshi Affiliation Casino.org

NEWSWZZM13.com

Michigan's legal battle with sports betting platform Kalshi takes another turn WZZM13.com

NEWSFOX Sports

Can You Trade on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest With Kalshi and Polymarket? FOX Sports

NEWSMashable

Spotify deletes 500K streams of popular song for suspected Kalshi, Polymarket user manipulation Mashable

Friday, 3 July 2026
NEWSThe Michigan Daily

Prediction markets can be a force for good The Michigan Daily

NEWS01net

Gopuff and Polymarket Team Up to Give Away $1 Million in Gold for America’s 250th Birthday 01net

RESEARCHCryptonews.net

How Prediction Markets Are Becoming Crypto’s New Sentiment Layer Cryptonews.net

NEWSLittle Black Book | LBBOnline

Polymarket and Rick Rubin Question Everything in Brand Debut with Better Half Little Black Book | LBBOnline

REGULATORYMusic Ally

Kalshi trades spark Spotify investigation into fake streams Music Ally

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is extremely bullish on Morocco to beat Canada in the Round of 16 in the World Cup.

NEWSFinancial Times

Prediction markets suffer when we all think the same way

NEWSFinancial Times

Spotify deletes streams of chart-topping song after suspicious Kalshi bets Financial Times

NEWSThe Block

Spotify asked Kalshi and Polymarket to drop its logo after 500,000 fake streams rigged a $3M music market, Bloomberg reported.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

The regulator said the National Council on Problem Gambling’s partnership with Kalshi conflicts with its mission to protect consumers and support responsible gaming. The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) has withdrawn its membership from the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG).

NEWSnytimes.com

What we learned from the government’s biggest attempt yet to control who can gain access to the most powerful new A.I. models.

NEWSSports Illustrated

Prediction markets favor Delante Johnson over Christopher Guerrero

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Kalshi and Polymarket faced new legal battles as states advanced taxes, Congress proposed new restrictions, and traditional finance moved further into prediction-style markets. This week marked another busy period for the prediction market sector, led by Kalshi facing new setbacks in Michigan and Nevada while Polymarket sued New Mexico.

REGULATORYUSA Today

Kalshi vs Polymarket Comparison: Which Prediction Market Platform Is Best for You? USA Today

REGULATORYCrain's Detroit

Michigan gambling regulator leaves national group over Kalshi partnership Crain's Detroit

DATABitcoin Foundation

Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Surges 75% to $44.8B in June — FIFA World Cup Drove $832M in Bets Bitcoin Foundation

NEWSThe Hollywood Reporter

Spotify Pulls Streams On a Hit Song Over Alleged Fraud Tied to Kalshi Betting The Hollywood Reporter

REGULATORYYahoo

Michigan Regulator Quits NCPG Over Problem Gambling Council's Kalshi Partnership Yahoo

NEWSStar Tribune

Tech firms and feds push to block Minnesota’s strict new law on prediction markets Star Tribune

NEWSYahoo Sports

Portugal vs Croatia prediction for World Cup: Trade on Kalshi World Cup markets Yahoo Sports

NEWSinc.com

'We're Pushing Financial Literacy': Kalshi CEO Claims His App Stops Instagram Brain Rot. Experts Aren't Convinced inc.com

NEWSThe Des Moines Register

Prediction markets take money from state, tribal economies | Opinion The Des Moines Register

RESEARCHX @thenarrator

Lays out an 8-point retention playbook for prediction market platforms, arguing the winners will be decided by habit-forming product mechanics rather than oracle quality or market breadth. Covers first-trade urgency, daily streaks, one-tap re-betting, leaderboard copy trading, shareable win moments, customizable flex cards,…

Thursday, 2 July 2026
NEWSCBS News

Spotify removes streams of No. 1 song after suspicious Kalshi bets CBS News

NEWSCourthouse News

Kalshi, Polymarket fight to block Minnesota ban on prediction markets Courthouse News

DEALSBloomberg

Spotify has asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo and clarify that neither company has a partnership with the streaming service after it identified users manipulating rankings that are tied to prediction market bets.

NEWSFOX Sports

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use in 2026? FOX Sports

REGULATORYMPR News

Nationally watched lawsuit has judge weighing future of Minnesota ban on prediction markets MPR News

REGULATORYsbcamericas.com

Polymarket Locks Horns With New Mexico in Federal Court sbcamericas.com

REGULATORYdars.gov.et

CFTC Reopens Investigation into Polymarket, Source Confirms - Profit Guidance Range dars.gov.et

M&A24/7 Wall St.
NEWSWIRED

Spotify Confirms Streaming Fraud After Kalshi Trader Cries Foul WIRED

RESEARCHUSA Today

What Is a Prediction Market? What They Are & Where to Trade USA Today

RESEARCHNiagara-on-the-Lake Local

As prediction markets head to Canada, a Brock expert is urging caution Niagara-on-the-Lake Local

NEWSThe Detroit News

Sports betting is regulated for a reason. Prediction markets shouldn’t get a free pass | Opinion The Detroit News

NEWSForbes

Mystery Polymarket Bettor Stakes Around $400,000 On Putin's Ouster Before End Of Year Forbes

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

North Carolina lawmakers moved closer to taxing prediction markets as part of a broader gambling tax package. At the same time, New Jersey advanced a proposal to impose a new surcharge on prediction market operators.

NEWSCNBC

Most prediction market contracts have low volume, leaving users exposed to volatility and bots CNBC

NEWSFront Office Sports

Novig Founder Isn’t Worried About Kalshi and Polymarket’s Head Start Front Office Sports

RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

What’s the most plausible story where foundation model companies actually start making money?

RESEARCHKlement on Investing

A fundamental flaw of prediction markets Klement on Investing

M&AMSN

Meta looked into Kalshi acquisition before building Arena MSN

DATAThe Block

Among the three, Kalshi saw the largest month-over-month increase in volume, growing 87.4% to $31.5 billion from $16.81 billion.

NEWSNBC News

Big Polymarket bets have been placed on Putin’s downfall NBC News

NEWSmarketplace.org
Wednesday, 1 July 2026
REGULATORYBloomberg

Cboe Global Markets Inc. is seeking US regulatory approval to list all-or-nothing options tied to corporate earnings results, allowing traders to wager on figures ranging from SpaceX revenue and Nvidia data-center sales to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s credit-loss provisions.

REGULATORYCovers.com

Polymarket Sues New Mexico to Block State Enforcement Covers.com

DEALSTechTrendsKE

Why Meta Looked at Buying Kalshi Before Building Arena TechTrendsKE

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Markets Ask States to Review Casino Lobby Connections Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYWSJ

Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets WSJ

M&ACDC Gaming

Meta considered Kalshi acquisition before developing Arena prediction market app, report says CDC Gaming

NEWSAsbury Park Press

Is Polymarket down. Polymarket crash topic on social media.

M&Anews.bitcoin.com

Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg approached prediction-market leader Kalshi about a takeover before ordering his own team to build a competing app, according to a new report. How a buy-then-build turned into a contested market NPR reported Monday that Zuckerberg met Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour last year to discuss buying…

REGULATORYSports Betting Dime

Polymarket Sues New Mexico to Prevent ‘Imminent and Irreparable Harm’ Sports Betting Dime

NEWSSports Illustrated

Anthony Davis is favored to be traded on Kalshi with the latest trade rumors.

NEWSThe Block

“Prediction markets are one of the most powerful applications you can build on a high-performance blockchain,” said Solana Foundation.

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

World went live on Solana on Wednesday, opening a fully onchain prediction market inside the Phantom wallet. The platform lets users trade on outcomes ranging from bitcoin’s short-term price moves to the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup, without moving funds into a separate app or custodial account.

RESEARCHSports Betting Dime

Unveiled North Carolina Budget Includes Sports Betting Tax Increase, New Prediction Market Tax Sports Betting Dime

NEWSSports Illustrated

Kalshi is bullish on Bronny James remaining with the Los Angeles Lakers.

M&ASeeking Alpha

Meta looked into Kalshi acquisition before building Arena (META:NASDAQ) Seeking Alpha

REGULATORYPlayUSA

Kalshi Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Tax and Licensing Law PlayUSA

RESEARCHThoroldToday.ca

As prediction markets head to Canada, a Brock expert is urging caution ThoroldToday.ca

NEWSCoinDesk
NEWSForbes

Prediction Markets Hit $24B A Month. Now US States Are Fighting Back Forbes

NEWSWILX

Kalshi ordered to halt operations in Michigan WILX

NEWSThe Sporting News

Get the best England vs DR Congo prediction for the World Cup to trade on all the action using Polymarket.

RESEARCHGizmodo

Wagering on Wildfires? There’s a New Prediction Market for That Gizmodo

NEWSSports Illustrated

Joey Chestnut has a record breaking number listed on his hot dog eating total at Kalshi.

M&AiGamingToday.com

Meta Explored Kalshi Acquisition Before Building Its Own Prediction Market App iGamingToday.com

NEWSSpectrum News

Michigan judge temporarily blocks Kalshi’s sports event contracts Spectrum News

REGULATORYgrafa.com

Massachusetts judge allows amended Kalshi lawsuit grafa.com

DEALSSportsHandle

Kalshi & ADI Predictstreet Team Up for World Cup Prediction Markets Expansion SportsHandle

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Draftkings has taken more of its prediction-markets stack in-house, launching DKeX and shifting trading away from third-party infrastructure such as CME Group and Crypto.com, though the company has not publicly framed the move as a formal termination of those relationships. From renting rails to owning the exchange Draftkings launched…

M&A디지털투데이

Zuckerberg's Meta pursued Kalshi acquisition but talks fell through, shifts to building its own app 디지털투데이

REGULATORYDecrypt

Kalshi Sports Markets Banned in Michigan as Temporary Blackout Takes Effect Decrypt

RESEARCHCasino.org

60% of Polymarket Traders Are Crypto Newbies Casino.org

RESEARCHX @setofsevens

Deep-dive analysis of Polymarket International's likely blockchain migration as it pursues CFTC compliance. Covers three technical migration paths — mirror-and-cutoff, dual chain instances, and sunset switchover — along with changes to KYC requirements and dispute resolution mechanisms.

Tuesday, 30 June 2026
M&ACasino.org

Meta Discussed Kalshi Acquisition, But Talks Didn’t Advance Casino.org

REGULATORYBloomberg

"Bloomberg Crypto" covers the people, transactions, and technology shaping the world of decentralized finance. Today's guests: Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault, BitGet CEO Gracy Chen, Luxor Technology COO Ethan Vera, and Fireblocks Policy Director Dea Markova.

RESEARCHCBC

Why are prediction markets coming to Canada? CBC

NEWSBloomberg Law News

North Carolina Targets Prediction Markets, Sports Betting Taxes Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHTradingView

Massachusetts AG files amended lawsuit against Kalshi over sports betting after court ruling TradingView

NEWSNPR

Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app NPR

REGULATORYnews.bitcoin.com

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked the public on June 30, 2026, to weigh in on how it regulates exchange-traded funds built around crypto assets, event contracts, and other nontraditional holdings.

NEWSDetroit Free Press

Judge blocks Kalshi prediction market from operating in Michigan Detroit Free Press

REGULATORYDeFi Rate

Kalshi Sues Ohio Over $5M Sports Prediction Market Fine DeFi Rate

NEWSMega Doctor News

Physicians Flag Prediction Markets as a Rising Threat to Adolescents with Addiction Disorders Mega Doctor News

NEWSBrock University

Canadian limitations will help curb prediction market risks — but issues remain, says Brock expert Brock University

REGULATORYBenzinga

Prediction Market ETFs Prompt SEC Review Of Fund Rules - SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD), iShares Bitcoin Tru Benzinga

REGULATORYWZZM13.com

Court orders Kalshi to temporarily halt sports wagering in Michigan or face $120k per day fine WZZM13.com

REGULATORYLaw360

Kalshi Must Face Expanded Mass. Gaming Suit, Judge Says Law360

REGULATORYBloomberg

Robert DeNault, head of enforcement at Kalshi, joins Isabelle Lee on "Bloomberg Crypto." Last month the CFTC permitted the listing of perpetual futures on US exchanges. Kalshi’s contracts were the first perpetual futures approved by the CFTC, marking an expansion beyond the company’s core business of listing event contracts.

REGULATORYLegalSportsReport

Michigan Regulator Wins Temporary Pause On Sports Trading At Kalshi LegalSportsReport

NEWSYahoo Sports

LeBron James is a big favorite to join Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors at sportsbooks and prediction markets Yahoo Sports

NEWSRoastbrief US

Polymarket's Debut Brand Campaign Launches During World Cup // Rick Rubin, Future & Peso Pluma Roastbrief US

NEWSinc.com
NEWSAction Network

Kalshi, Predictstreet Partner to Bolster 2026 World Cup Prediction Markets Action Network

NEWSYogonet

New study finds prediction markets bringing first-time users into crypto Yogonet

NEWSFinance Magnates

Owning the Exchange Is Becoming the New Competitive Advantage in Prediction Markets Finance Magnates

NEWSFOX 2 Detroit

Betting website Kalshi ordered to stop operating in Michigan FOX 2 Detroit

REGULATORYdars.gov.et

CFTC Launches New Investigation into Polymarket, Sources Report - Earnings Stability Report dars.gov.et

NEWSSports Illustrated

Jackson Koivun is one of the favorites to win the John Deere Classic in his pro debut.

REGULATORYThe Block

The SEC is taking a fresh look at how a proposed fast-growing new class of ETFs tied to prediction markets should be regulated.

NEWSCBS News

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding rumors fuel millions in bets on prediction markets CBS News

REGULATORYCrain's Detroit

Kalshi ordered to stop taking Michigan sports trades after judge rules platform skirts gambling law Crain's Detroit

PEOPLEYahoo Finance

Kalshi Facing Scrutiny Over Trump Jr. $300,000 Share Gift Yahoo Finance

DEALSBloomberg.com

Kalshi Picks Up World Cup Sponsorship Deal at a Deep Discount Bloomberg.com

REGULATORYsbcamericas.com

Kalshi Sues Ohio Regulator to Try to Block Planned $5M Fine sbcamericas.com

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

Kalshi Puts ‘Restrictions’ in Place in Michigan Following Court Ruling Yahoo Finance

PEOPLEYahoo Finance

Inside Zuckerberg’s Reported Plan to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets Yahoo Finance

NEWSBloomberg

When the World Cup knockout round began Sunday, Kalshi joined the likes of Coca-Cola, Visa and Adidas with sideline advertising in the stadiums — an unusual addition, given that the event is halfway over, and also that FIFA already signed up an “official prediction markets partner” in ADI Predictstreet, a startup with ties to the Abu…

REGULATORYdars.gov.et

CFTC Launches Fresh Investigation Into Polymarket, Sources Indicate - Earnings Surprise Stocks dars.gov.et

NEWSSports Illustrated

Oregon is the new favorite on Kalsi to win the National Championship. Texas slides down as the outright favorite.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Prediction market operator faces daily six-figure fine if it cannot meet temporary restraining order’s geolocation requirement A Michigan judge on Monday approved a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, requiring the prediction exchange to halt offering contracts on sporting events in the state. In the four-page document, Ingham…

NEWSABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Battleground House members introduce prediction market ban for politicians, federal candidates ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

NEWSSports Illustrated

The United States is a heavy favorite over Bosnia-Herzegovina in the knockout round of 32.

REGULATORYThe Block

Jurisdiction over prediction market platforms is an ongoing dispute between the CFTC and multiple state regulators.

NEWSBloomberg

At Manifest, some tech intellectuals wondered whether Super Bowl bets were really helping humanity.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Prediction Market Theorists Question Kalshi, Polymarket Boom Bloomberg Law News

REGULATORYNew Jersey Globe

Election betting ban advances as lawmakers target prediction markets New Jersey Globe

DEALSMinistry of Sport

Kalshi Forges Strategic Alliance with FIFA Partner ADI Predictstreet to Expand Global Reach Ministry of Sport

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Arkham Intelligence rolled out a new skill-based rating system for Polymarket traders on Monday, shifting how the platform measures performance from profit totals to forecasting accuracy. What Elo Measures The new feature, called Prediction Market Elo, applies an Elo/MMR-style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and competitive…

NEWSCBS News

Judge temporarily blocks Kalshi from allowing Michigan residents to place online sports bets CBS News

REGULATORYCrain's Chicago Business

Illinois delays enforcing new tax law against Kalshi as lawsuit proceeds Crain's Chicago Business

NEWSMissouri Lawyers Media

Prediction markets open insider training minefield for corporate counsel: What to know Missouri Lawyers Media

REGULATORYKWTX

Betting on Everything: Prediction markets draw millions of users — and regulatory questions KWTX

NEWSReuters

Michigan judge blocks Kalshi from allowing residents to place sports bets Reuters

NEWSCDC Gaming

Thoughts on another prediction markets ad on TikTok CDC Gaming

RESEARCHX @thatdegenvc

Argues that onchain prediction market betting profiles reveal deeper insights about individuals than traditional resumes. With structured data on specific questions, resolution criteria, and outcomes, a trader's history shows how they price information and manage risk — suggesting Polymarket and Kalshi profiles may eventually appear on…

Monday, 29 June 2026
REGULATORYthedefiant.io

CFTC Expands Polymarket Probe to Staged Trades and Fake Wins thedefiant.io

NEWSThe American Action Forum

Prediction Markets: A Primer The American Action Forum

NEWSSports Illustrated

The New York Yankees price to win the World Series drops while the Los Angeles Dodgers spike.

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Kalshi Barred for Now From Offering Sports Wagering in Michigan Bloomberg Law News

RESEARCHYogonet

Polymarket-backed Polysights raises $1.5M to fund AI surveillance tools for prediction markets Yogonet

NEWSThe Block

The highest Elo-ranked trader, “GardenerCx,” has a win rate of 64.3% over 2,644 bets focused on up/down bitcoin markets.

NEWSSports Business Journal

A look at prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket Sports Business Journal

REGULATORYCrypto Briefing

CFTC expands probe into Polymarket over staged trades and fake wins Crypto Briefing

REGULATORYYogonet

Kalshi sues Illinois over prediction market regulations ahead of July 1 deadline Yogonet

NEWSCoinDesk

Prediction market consolidation could spark wave of M&A across sports betting, Bernstein says CoinDesk

NEWSThe Sporting News

Get the best goal props for World Cup games today to trade on prediction markets for the World Cup knockout stages.

NEWSSports Illustrated

France remains the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup. Argentina is closing in on Kalshi.

REGULATORYCity Journal

The Coming Supreme Court Showdown Over Prediction Markets City Journal

NEWSBloomberg

This year’s World Cup is the first since prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket exploded to popularity as a new way to bet on sports. Chad Beynon, Senior Gaming, Lodging, and Theaters Analyst at Macquarie, talks about how the World Cup is impacting the US sports betting market and which stocks stand to benefit.

NEWSCoinDesk
REGULATORYReadWrite

Federal agencies back Kalshi against Rhode Island ReadWrite

VENTUREnitter.net
REGULATORYunchainedcrypto.com

Bipartisan Senators Call for CFTC Investigation of Polymarket Over Staged Promotions unchainedcrypto.com

NEWSMotorsport.com

Mercedes boss questions how Ferrari can afford "limitless" F1 upgrades Motorsport.com

RESEARCHItô Dialogues II

Will AGI appear thanks to Prediction Markets, and Markets Generally?

REGULATORYBloomberg

Homegrown platforms, banned from real-money gambling, are tapping the country’s loyalty-point culture to build an alternative to Polymarket.

REGULATORYPYMNTS.com

Polymarket Faces CFTC Probe and Deals With $3 Million Hack PYMNTS.com

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

21Shares says its 2026 crypto forecasts are showing uneven progress, with prediction markets and Ethereum scaling ahead of pace while ETPs, stablecoins, DeFi, digital asset treasuries, and tokenized assets trail ambitious targets. 21Shares Measures 10 Crypto Forecasts Against Midyear Market Data Crypto markets are entering the second…

NEWSCBS News

Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations CBS News

Sunday, 28 June 2026
VENTUREBettors Insider

Kalshi Seeks $40 Billion Valuation as CEO Rules Out IPO Before 2027 Bettors Insider

NEWSSports Business Journal

Kalshi, ADI Predictstreet partner on co-branded spots during World Cup Sports Business Journal

NEWSYahoo Sports

Wolff stunned by Ferrari's relentless development: 'They seem to be limitless in that way' Yahoo Sports

NEWSWSJ

Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi WSJ

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Polymarket's March 2026 oil markets case study: how binary architecture fragments liquidity across strikes, why staircase hedges leave basis risk, and how a continuous market collapses 21 binaries into one position.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Splitting 18,863 Polymarket events into continuous and categorical slices and re-running the v1 analysis. Concentration is architecture-wide; ghost markets are a categorical phenomenon.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

A metadata study of 36,777 Polymarket events: splitting one question into many binary contracts concentrates liquidity in ~5 markets, leaves ghost markets in the tails, and taxes the low-priced contracts.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Analysing 7,292 resolved events and 28,793 Polymarket trades: the apparent YES bias looks like longshot preference channelled through how questions are framed.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Prediction market TAM should include the supply side: as the cost of producing real-time probability estimates collapses, the addressable market widens far past trading volume.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

The smart-money-vs-dumb-money framing misreads prediction markets. Drawing on NBER, the BIN model, and the Kapoor Quadrant, noise is a structural requirement, not a bug.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Prediction markets must agree on what actually happened. functionSPACE compares delegated (Kalshi) and collective (UMA, Reality.eth, Chainlink) confirmation.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Prediction markets are under 0.5% of DeFi volume, but reframed as information finance they look early, not small. functionSPACE maps the four-layer prediction economy.

RESEARCHfunctionspace.dev

Beliefs aren't binary — they're directional, bracketed, distributional. Binary contracts force 1-bit expression and fragment capital up to 256×; composable beliefs trade on a shared surface.

NEWSnytimes.com

How one silly syllable ignited a bitter dispute over the nature of reality on Polymarket.

REGULATORYThe Pantagraph

Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over state's push to regulate sports bets The Pantagraph

NEWSCNET

Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Anything. That's a Problem CNET

NEWSConsequence of Sound

Rick Rubin Stars in Polymarket Commercial Consequence of Sound

RESEARCHmedium.com

Argues that prediction markets are following the same trajectory as social media — starting with idealistic narratives about information aggregation but devolving into gambling, manipulation, and regulatory arbitrage. Highlights Meta's new prediction market app Arena, insider trading cases like the US Special Forces Maduro raid bet, and…

Saturday, 27 June 2026
DEALSBeInCrypto

Kalshi Partners With ADI Predictstreet to Expand World Cup Prediction Markets BeInCrypto

PEOPLEBenzinga
NEWS99bitcoins
RESEARCHHOKANEWS.COM

Meta May Launch a Prediction Markets Platform, Report Says HOKANEWS.COM

DEALSWTOP

NBA Finals Prediction Market Apps: Claims Best Bonuses For Knicks-Spurs Series WTOP

NEWSCoinDesk
DEALSWIN.GG

Kalshi signs deal with FIFA’s official World Cup partner ADI Predictstreet WIN.GG

REGULATORYPolitico

Polymarket sued over ‘flagrantly deceptive’ social media ads Politico

RESEARCHnews8000.com

Prediction markets go wild with Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding questions news8000.com

REGULATORYBenzinga

Polymarket's Troubles Deepen As Report Says CFTC Launches Extensive Probe Following $3 Million Hack And B Benzinga

M&ABitget

Polymarket acquires Craft Agents, with some team members joining Polymarket Bitget

RESEARCHMSN

Washington pulled the plug on Anthropic's best AI: Here's when prediction markets say it comes back MSN

REGULATORY디지털투데이

U.S. senators urge CFTC probe into Polymarket over alleged deceptive marketing 디지털투데이

RESEARCHCoinMarketCap

ARK Invest Will Use Kalshi Markets To Guide Investment Calls CoinMarketCap

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

STRC’s collapse below par has sparked intense debate as Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock struggles beneath the $75 mark. Yet Polymarket bettors still see a path back, wagering that the stock will eventually reclaim its intended price, though not anytime soon.

REGULATORYCryptoRank

US Senators Urge CFTC to Probe Polymarket Over Alleged Deceptive Marketing CryptoRank

REGULATORYThe New York Times

U.S. Begins Investigating Polymarket, a Test of a Key Regulator The New York Times

REGULATORYFinancial Times

States and consumer advocates call for more oversight of rapidly growing venue

DEALSBitcoin World

Zuckerberg Pushes Meta To Explore Polymarket Partnership, Sources Say Bitcoin World

REGULATORYForbes

Regulators Are Investigating Polymarket, Reports Say—As Senators Demand A Federal Probe Forbes

NEWSthedefiant.io

Kalshi Seeks $40B Valuation Seven Weeks After $22B Raise thedefiant.io

NEWSNEWS10 ABC

Live Limitless Refuge Center & Project Rise host carnival in Troy NEWS10 ABC

REGULATORYYahoo Finance

Report: CFTC Conducting Extensive Investigation Into Polymarket Yahoo Finance

NEWSnews.bitcoin.com

Prediction-market platform Polymarket said hackers stole roughly $3 million from users after a third-party vendor was compromised and malicious code was injected into its website. The incident has since been fully contained, and refunds are being initiated for affected users in full.

NEWSReuters

Zuckerberg asks Meta to explore working with Polymarket and Kalshi, NYT reports Reuters

RAISESRobotics & Automation News

Limitless Labs raises $20 million to expand AI platform for CNC programming and precision manufacturing Robotics & Automation News

NEWSNews-Press NOW

Next Round of Speakers Announced for PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference News-Press NOW

DATACrypto Adventure

Kalshi Eyes $40B Valuation As Prediction Market Volume Surges Crypto Adventure

Friday, 26 June 2026
NEWSthestreet.com

DraftKings (DKNG) turned on its own prediction markets exchange this week, a shift the company has been engineering since last fall. For seven months, every contract traded on DraftKings Predictions ran through somebody else’s infrastructure.

REGULATORYTribal Business News

Kalshi asks court to dismiss tribal challenge to sports prediction markets Tribal Business News

REGULATORYDeseret News

Lawsuit: Polymarket staged fake bets, paid for secret ads Deseret News

NEWSSports Illustrated

A retirement market has opened on Kalshi for when Matthew Stafford will retire.

REGULATORYThe Center Square

Illinois sued over prediction market law imposing new taxes, regulations The Center Square

REGULATORYCNBC

The probe comes after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice dropped previous inquiries into Polymarket last July.

REGULATORYSports Betting Dime

Kalshi Sues Illinois Over New Prediction Market Tax Sports Betting Dime

NEWSNew York Post

Kalshi granted Donald Trump Jr. $300K in shares for senior adviser role: report New York Post

NEWSBloomberg

Bloomberg's Justina Lee joins Lisa Mateo and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." The share of stock volumes of retail investors has doubled over the past 15 years, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. Social media and the gamification of trading have played a decisive role in the growth of investing in crypto, options, sports betting, and…

NEWSnytimes.com

Mr. Zuckerberg’s plans for Arena, a prediction markets app that Meta is building, also include appealing to 18- to 34-year-old users.

REGULATORYCapitol News Illinois

Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets Capitol News Illinois

NEWSSports Illustrated

Notre Dame is favored on Kalshi to finish the 2026-27 college football season undefeated.

REGULATORYBloomberg

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an extensive investigation into Polymarket, according to a person familiar with the matter, the latest challenge for the prediction market platform plagued by operational stumbles and legal scrutiny.

REGULATORYDecrypt

Senators Demand Answers From CFTC Over Alleged Polymarket Deceptive Advertising Decrypt

REGULATORYPolitico

Wall Street regulator investigating prediction market giant Polymarket Politico

REGULATORYFront Office Sports

Polymarket Scrutiny Intensifies With Deceptive Marketing Lawsuit Front Office Sports

DEALSCBS Sports

Kalshi MLB picks today: Best trades for Yankees-Red Sox, Dodgers-Padres, Cubs-Brewers on Friday, June 26 CBS Sports

NEWSThe New York Times

Kalshi’s Next Bet: A World Cup Deal as It Seeks More Growth The New York Times

REGULATORYBloomberg Law News

Polymarket Hit With Deceptive Influencer Endorsements Lawsuit Bloomberg Law News

NEWSSports Illustrated

Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka are each favored to win the men's and women's Wimbledon. Serena Williams is returning at Wimbledon.

DEALSYahoo Finance

Kalshi Scores FIFA World Cup Spotlight as Prediction Market Trading Surges to Record Yahoo Finance

NEWSCasino.org

As Kalshi Valuation Swells, Trump Jr Stake Could Be Worth Billions Casino.org

NEWSKalshi

Save the date and place your trades: what's in store for the Swift/Kelce wedding? Kalshi

REGULATORYThe Block

Senators are demanding for the CFTC to investigate Polymarket following reports that it paid creators to stage fake winning bets.

NEWSOregonLive.com

Updated Kalshi Code OREGONLIVE1: New $10 cash bonus for Egypt-Iran, New Zealand-Belgium in OR, WA, and CA OregonLive.com

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

I don’t usually write in first person, but this week’s news hits particularly close to home. I was hoping to be giving a big ole’ bingo today to the US men’s soccer team for going perfect through World Cup group play and writing about how the squads’ momentum would boost sportsbook handle and prediction market […]

NEWSFF News

Glimpse Debuts Bitcoin Prediction Market to Reward Accura… FF News

DEALSYahoo Finance

Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond Yahoo Finance

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Federal lawmakers have introduced an abundance of prediction market bills. Experts say the proposals reflect growing attention to the industry rather than a consensus on regulation.

NEWSInvestor's Business Daily
NEWSCorsicana Daily Sun

Next Round of Speakers Announced for PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference Corsicana Daily Sun

NEWSSecurityWeek

$3 Million Reportedly Stolen in Polymarket Hack SecurityWeek

NEWSBenzinga

SpaceX Stock Holding Above $135 IPO Price Is An Unlikely Outcome For Prediction Market Bettors As SPCX Pl Benzinga

BUSINESSThe Block

The company said its prediction markets vertical has generated approximately $3.4 billion in annualized consumer volume.

BUSINESSWSJ

Exclusive | Lawmakers Call for Investigation into Deceptive Advertising by Polymarket WSJ

NEWSReuters
REGULATORYBettors Insider

CFTC Prediction Market Comment Period Closes July 27 Amid World Cup Betting Boom Bettors Insider

NEWSnytimes.com

The prediction market is betting that the association with the soccer tournament will help bolster betting volumes as it works toward an I.P.O.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

New lawsuits, tribal intervention, and the first federal prediction market bill to advance from committee made for another eventful week. Prediction market litigation continued to expand across the U.S.

DEALSmarketscreener.com

Draftkings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange Dkex with Integration into Unified Draftkings Sports and Casino App marketscreener.com

NEWSblockchain.news

Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5% blockchain.news

NEWSCNBC

World Cup trading and the end of its U.S. waitlist are driving rapid growth for Polymarket's prediction market platform.

NEWSFinancial Times

Privately owned company’s valuation has soared as US administration has adopted a light-touch approach to the sector

DEALSCasino.org

Kalshi, Tradeweb Partnership Kicking Into Gear Casino.org

NEWSYahoo Finance

Polymarket to Refund Users After Scammers Swipe Millions in Website Exploit Yahoo Finance

RESEARCHX @0xdevin_

Detailed analysis of how Kalshi market makers (quant firms like SIG) shade lines against expected retail flow during the 2026 World Cup, creating persistent edges for informed sports traders. Covers the France vs Norway case study where public rotation news was ignored by models for three days, the fee structure that prevents clean…

Thursday, 25 June 2026
NEWSThe Journal Record

‘An absolute mess:’ Prediction markets create new gamble for Oklahoma tribes The Journal Record

REGULATORYMerkley (.gov)

Blumenthal & Merkley Lead Colleagues in Push to End CFTC Assault on State Prediction Markets Oversight Merkley (.gov)

NEWSBloomberg Law News

Biden Solicitor General Backs Prediction Markets in State Spat Bloomberg Law News

NEWSTechCrunch

The prediction market giant Polymarket said it's refunding users who had funds stolen due to a third-party breach.

REGULATORYgamblinginsider.com

Meta is reportedly building its own prediction markets platform. Sisun, the co-founder of a nascent exchange, says there’s already a model for the tech giant to follow.

NEWSgalaxy.com

Risk Managing Prediction Markets galaxy.com

RESEARCHa16zcrypto.substack.com

Prediction markets just had their biggest week ever.

DEALSAxios

Kalshi eyes valuation jump, Chess.com deal, and Clearwater's buyout Axios

RESEARCHastralcodexten.com

Scott Alexander reviews the Metaculus US Democracy Threat Index, a prediction market index tracking expected threats to American democracy through 2027-2028. The index peaked at 47% in late 2025 following election uncertainty before settling to 39% after orderly special elections and failed politicized prosecutions.

Tuesday, 23 June 2026
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

A conversation with ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen about better prices, market makers, advertising, age limits, and the CFTC’s foray into sports

RESEARCHwashingtonpost.com

WaPo analyzes 1,276 Kalshi markets and 829 Polymarket markets across 344 primary races and finds prediction markets are well-calibrated: candidates given 70-80% probability win about as often as predicted. High-profile misses (Spencer Pratt in LA, Massie in KY) are not failures of the market but the expected 25% outcome in a properly…

Monday, 22 June 2026
RESEARCHyaicapital.substack.com

Yai Capital announces Yai Markets, a DeFi-native prediction market infrastructure built on Solana targeting advanced traders and institutional liquidity providers. The post outlines three key innovations including synchronous crankless execution, atomic smart circuit breakers, and cross-protocol atomic hedging, positioning the platform…

RESEARCHX @dayonelaw

Day One Law's weekly legal update for crypto builders covers the CFTC's June 10 proposed rules that would narrow the definition of prohibited event contracts to terrorism, gaming (narrowly defined), entirely random events, and specific sports micro-bets. Includes practical compliance guidance for prediction market builders during the…

RESEARCHX @mickeyhardy

Mickey Hardy (Arcadia) argues prediction markets are not just better gambling but the next fundamental system for organizing human behavior — comparable to stock markets, insurance, and search engines — by converting probability itself into a measurable, allocatable asset. Covers applications across pharma, insurance, corporate…

Sunday, 21 June 2026
RESEARCHliquidcontext.substack.com

Draws on Isaiah Berlin's two concepts of liberty to frame two competing visions of markets: the 'market as camera' (Hayek's price discovery aggregating scattered private knowledge) versus the 'market as engine' (actively shaping the outcomes it measures). Uses prediction markets as a live case study, covering their history from 1880s New…

Tuesday, 16 June 2026
RESEARCHthefintercept.substack.com

Makes the case for prediction markets as a corporate treasury and forecasting tool, backed by data on 127x volume growth from 2022 to 2025. Profiles Enlivex's use of the Rain protocol on Arbitrum as its primary reserve asset, and traces how prediction markets are displacing expert opinion in pharma, climate science, and supply chain…

Monday, 15 June 2026
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

Anxiety around AI is materially triggered and existentially experienced.

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Polymarket matches orders off-chain for speed but settles on-chain for finality. This paper identifies a consistency gap they call Ghost Fills — orders matched off-chain that fail during on-chain settlement.

Friday, 12 June 2026
RESEARCHX @0xTakeProfits

Synthesizes four datasets — accuracy metrics, trader PnL, volume concentration, and skill classification — to reveal prediction markets' real structure: a 3% skilled minority drives the accuracy while 84% of traders lose money. A data-rich challenge to the 'wisdom of crowds' narrative.

RESEARCHnymag.com

Investigates how easy it is to rig prediction markets on Rotten Tomatoes movie scores — a handful of compromised critics could swing scores enough to cash out on Kalshi. Chronicles multiple real insider trading cases: the Khai Rated critic who tanked Alien: Earth scores, the Maduro raid trader, MrBeast's video editor, the Google employee…

Thursday, 11 June 2026
RESEARCHjeffreycarter.substack.com

A former CME board member who helped negotiate the CFMA 2000 argues for bifurcating prediction market regulation: sports and entertainment betting under state gaming laws, while economically valuable markets (politics, weather, economic releases) stay under CFTC oversight. Makes the case that the all-or-nothing regulatory debate misses a…

Wednesday, 10 June 2026
RESEARCHX @Rashan

The CFTC's recent event contract proposal marks a turning point for prediction markets as a new financial asset class, argues Rashan Colbert. Legal classification will determine whether event contracts develop as gambling products or as legitimate event-risk infrastructure for institutions and protocols.

RESEARCHX @chainlink

Makes the case that prediction markets are hitting the same infrastructure wall DeFi faced in 2020, with the oracle layer as the bottleneck to further growth. Explains the risks of optimistic dispute resolution and how Chainlink's deterministic data streams and AI-hybrid oracles are reducing settlement times from hours to minutes.

Tuesday, 9 June 2026
RESEARCHgalaxy.com

Galaxy Research breaks down Hyperliquid's HIP-4 protocol upgrade and positions it as the arrival of a third major prediction market model alongside Polymarket and Kalshi. Compares the three on infrastructure, fees, UX, oracle design, and regulatory posture across a 35-minute deep dive with live market data.

Monday, 8 June 2026
RESEARCHX @schemacap

Schema Research breaks down the five mechanisms powering every prediction market: LMSR, central limit order books, AMMs, bonding curves, and parimutuel pools. It explains the math behind each, their trade-offs, and how the strongest modern designs combine several mechanisms across different stages of a market's lifecycle.

RESEARCHinthesetimes.com

Argues that the explosive growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reflects economic desperation and financial nihilism among young Americans, not innovation. Cites a Bloomberg analysis showing retail traders lost 31M while bots and institutional investors captured nearly all profits.

Friday, 5 June 2026
RESEARCHX @xolabs_

XO Labs publishes the first in a planned series on XO Vaults, a passive liquidity design that bridges the gap between CLOB platforms and pooled liquidity in prediction markets. It analyses three existing liquidity models and identifies a structural gap: platforms with best execution have no passive product, while platforms with passive…

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Hossain, Andrade, Zang, and Chen introduce evidence markets, a new mechanism that generalizes prediction markets to handle two limitations: prices reveal what the crowd believes but not why, and markets require external resolution events with known dates. The system uses a Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule with dynamic liquidity that…

Thursday, 4 June 2026
RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

This is the most formal treatment of futarchy's microstructural challenges to date, modeling how selection bias and equilibrium multiplicity emerge from the joint information structure of action and outcome beliefs. The paper's central insight — that on-chain wallet transparency creates a cross-market welfare channel with a narrow…

Wednesday, 3 June 2026
RESEARCHX @nic_carter

Nic Carter examines the MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale market dispute and argues that Polymarket's entire market resolution system is structurally broken. He shows how outsourcing resolution to UMA creates a fundamental economic security failure: the UMA token market cap ($37M) is far smaller than the disputed market volume ($317M), making…

Tuesday, 2 June 2026
RESEARCHX @a16zcrypto

An accessible explainer from Scott Duke Kominers on how prediction markets aggregate information through market prices. The piece covers the core mechanism, benefits over polls, and key design challenges around participation, insider trading, and manipulation.

Monday, 1 June 2026
RESEARCHcranezeng.com

The first rigorous estimate of U.S. user activity on offshore prediction market platforms finds that ~30% of Polymarket's $55.6B trailing twelve-month volume comes from U.S.-based users.

Saturday, 30 May 2026
RESEARCHX @mens_aurelius

Not all historic data is equally useful for prediction. Eric Menser argues that treating all past games as equally relevant misses the higher-signal comparisons buried in specific contexts - team matchups, announcer crews, and game types.

Friday, 29 May 2026
RESEARCHX @functionspacehq

Binary prediction markets struggle with continuous outcomes like oil prices because capital fragments across individual strike prices. This piece uses Polymarket's crude oil dataset to illustrate the staircase hedging problem.

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Evaluates whether multi-agent LLM architectures can resolve prediction market outcomes more accurately than single-model baselines. Tests independent aggregation and deliberative consensus against GPT-5 Nano, DeepSeek V3, and Llama-3.3-70B on 1,189 resolved questions from KalshiBench.

Wednesday, 27 May 2026
RESEARCHX @LatticaFinance

Lattica designs a shortfall-pricing risk engine that enables lending against collateralized prediction market positions, calibrated on Polymarket historical data. Uses Wang-distorted loss distributions within fixed-duration epochs to price lender tail risk where traditional liquidation-based lending fails due to bounded prices and…

Tuesday, 26 May 2026
RESEARCHX @ericliujt

Eric Liu (co-founder @totalistrading) explains how prediction market market makers can reduce required collateral for parlay tickets by computing worst-case portfolio exposure with integer linear programming instead of collateralizing each ticket in isolation. He walks through the ILP formulation, shows how it avoids the infeasible 2^n…

Monday, 25 May 2026
RESEARCHX @aelix0x

Aelix diagnoses why prediction markets remain stuck on sports gambling — roughly 65% of Polymarket and Kalshi volume goes to sports, with another 12% each on crypto and politics, leaving useful markets like STEM at 1.2%. The bottleneck isn't technology but market structure: prediction markets are zero-sum, so savers don't participate;…

Thursday, 21 May 2026
RESEARCHX @variance_lover

An on-chain investigation revealing how a single entity extracted over $5m from Polymarket's crypto markets using 350+ accounts. The piece walks through the manipulation mechanism — accumulating positions on Polymarket then moving Binance's BTC price during settlement windows — and traces the fund flow through Hyperliquid wallets to…

RESEARCHX @0xtaetaehoho

taetaehoho runs an empirical analysis of Polymarket's liquidity rewards and sponsorships, finding they can tighten spreads only when daily spend exceeds roughly 1% of the existing book. Even above that threshold, incentive size barely predicts which markets respond; pre-existing liquidity conditions and pre-trends are far stronger…

Wednesday, 20 May 2026
RESEARCHalejandrosoumah.substack.com

Itô Dialogues: an essay series on liquidity, belief, and what markets actually price

Friday, 15 May 2026
RESEARCHX @xolabs_

XO Labs publishes a framework for thinking about prediction market resolution as a spectrum rather than a single mechanism. The paper identifies the resolver trilemma between efficiency, decentralization, and security, using the Ukraine minerals market whale tax incident on Polymarket as a case study in token-weighted governance failure.

Wednesday, 13 May 2026
RESEARCHgithub.com

Analyzes Trepa's high-frequency forecasting contest on Solana and shows its current design (median error cutoff, steep accuracy weights) induces a Keynesian beauty contest equilibrium that underweights private information. Introduces the orthogonal precision multiplier, a mechanism that rewards accurate forecasts decorrelated from the…

RESEARCHhegemon.substack.com

Seva Gunitsky argues that prediction markets create three distinct dangers for global conflict: military insider trading at scale, manipulation of outcome resolution, and propaganda advantages for autocratic regimes. The article walks through real cases including the Israeli Air Force betting scandal and the 'hair dryer problem' — cases…

Tuesday, 12 May 2026
RESEARCHlesswrong.com

A clear-eyed diagnosis of why decision markets (futarchy) haven’t taken off despite the elegant theory. Identifies two structural problems: thin markets that can’t attract enough informed traders for idiosyncratic decisions, and a conditional-futures architecture where token-price-as-KPI is too noisy to incentivize rational trading.

RESEARCHX @0xtaetaehoho

Compares spreads across DraftKings, FanDuel, Polymarket, and Kalshi on identical sports markets to isolate how counterparty identification versus maker competition affects pricing. Finds PM prices are 100-300 bps better on liquid markets but long-tail markets on prediction markets have 10-50% spreads.

RESEARCHX @Kunallegendd

Analyzes Polymarket's short-duration crypto up/down markets, which now account for 16% of monthly volume but generate ~40% of platform fees. Finds professional algo traders (19 addresses) extract consistent profits through paired trading and maker execution while 69% of retail traders lose money.

Monday, 11 May 2026
RESEARCHx.com

A detailed analysis of how Robinhood's distribution advantage—27 million funded users and cross-selling across stocks, options, crypto, and futures—gives it an existential edge over standalone prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Walks through Robinhood's Rothera JV (buying the exchange infrastructure), the economics…

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Tests whether Polymarket forecasts for influenza hospitalizations and measles cases can beat established benchmarks. The markets fail to outperform the CDC FluSight ensemble for flu or simple ARIMA baselines for measles.

Friday, 8 May 2026
RESEARCHX @DeanEigenmann

Uses the $292M Kelp DAO rsETH bridge exploit to motivate why crypto-native parametric cover is needed, then compares HIP-4's binary event contract structure to CDS, catastrophe bonds, reinsurance sidecars, and weather derivatives. Argues that when outcome contracts share margin with underlying exposure on the same execution layer, HIP-4…

Thursday, 7 May 2026
RESEARCHX @embrron

MO compares three market architectures for expressing shaped beliefs: binary prediction markets, options structures, and continuous prediction markets. The article traces the distribution gap from the Black-Scholes era through modern crypto markets and argues that continuous payout curves replace the workarounds traders currently use.

Tuesday, 5 May 2026
RESEARCHX @lzminsky

Provides a framework for understanding which prediction market categories can win institutional capital, using variance risk premium analysis to determine where event contracts beat options replication. Situates the current benchmark-building race (election ETFs, corporate event notes, AI capability markets) within the historical pattern…

Monday, 4 May 2026
RESEARCHX @AstariaTrade

Makes the case that prediction market perpetuals are structurally different from crypto perps because event contracts lack a tradeable underlying, making most implementations liquidation arcades. Argues the winning path is building perps as institutional hedging infrastructure for continuous event-risk management rather than leveraged…

RESEARCHX @PinkBrains_io

Breaks down Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome contracts as an onchain options layer rather than just another prediction market, comparing its unified margin engine, fee structure, and token value capture to Polymarket and Kalshi. Maps the design space for credit default swaps, parametric insurance, and futarchy that the primitive unlocks.

Sunday, 3 May 2026
RESEARCHX @Lihong062

Analyzes three structural reasons prediction market prices diverge from true probabilities even with rational participants: favorite-longshot bias from Kelly betting, risk-premium distortion from market correlation, and risk-neutral forward pricing in long-dated contracts. Argues markets still outperform individuals because they weight…

Thursday, 30 April 2026
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

The public discussion around the regulatory approach of prediction markets has been organized around binaries that obscure useful distinctions: markets versus gambling, free speech versus consumer protection, insider trading good versus bad.

RESEARCHx.com

DWF Ventures argues prediction markets are evolving into a financial derivatives asset class. The piece analyzes structural barriers to leverage and collateral lending: jump risk, binary valuation and regulatory uncertainty.

Wednesday, 29 April 2026
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

They may not be your counterparty, but they still need you to lose

RESEARCHovercomingbias.com

Robin Hanson responds to a CFTC call for comments by arguing prediction markets deserve the same regulatory treatment as other information institutions like journalism and academia. Drawing parallels between six common harms shared across all information systems, from insider trading to manipulation, he contends markets should be…

Monday, 27 April 2026
RESEARCHX @noahlitvin

Defense of prediction markets that reframes the moral critique as a critique of capitalism itself. Litvin walks through the standard objections (gambling, insider trading, manipulation, slot-machine durations) and pairs each with a larger-scale analog in traditional finance: the $950M oil ceasefire trades on CME, LIBOR, accredited…

RESEARCHX @functionspaceHQ

Follow-up to functionSPACE's V1 discretisation analysis, splitting Polymarket's 18,863 multi-market events into continuous (price brackets, weather ranges, margin percentages) versus categorical (teams, candidates) and re-running the pathology tests. Both types concentrate 90% of volume in the top 5-6 markets, but ghost markets turn out…

RESEARCHwhirligigbear.substack.com

Prediction markets make information legible in a way stocks and options do not. When someone bets big on an attack on Maduro, everyone immediately knows what the bet is about, unlike a stock price spike that could mean anything.

Sunday, 26 April 2026
RESEARCHX @nic_carter

Frames insider trading as a structural feature of prediction markets, not a bug. Walks through the DOJ case against Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who made $400k on Polymarket trading the Maduro raid, and the prior Israeli reservist arrests, then quotes Mansour, Coplan, Tenev, and Hanson on how insider flow is what makes prices…

Friday, 24 April 2026
RESEARCHX @Ommiii_

Teaser thread for a 50+ page Q1 2026 prediction markets report. Claims the space did more volume in one quarter than all of 2025 combined, and distills 11 insights on scale, concentration, monetization, and the attention the category is drawing from institutions and regulators.

RESEARCHX @abhitejxyz

Long essay from the Bento.fun founder positioning prediction markets as the next stage in the history of expression: from print to radio to social media, each medium widened who could speak, but only markets demand that speakers bear consequence for being wrong. Pulls in Hayek on price as coordination, Taleb on skin in the game, and…

RESEARCHmo-el.xyz

Argues forecasting accuracy has outpaced product design: a decade inside the US intelligence community produced zero complaints about forecast quality, yet forecasting firms remain niche while simulation startups Aaru and Simile raised nine-figure rounds. Diagnoses the gap as a failure to embed forecasts into institutional workflows, and…

Thursday, 23 April 2026
RESEARCHX @CalBlockchain

Beginner-oriented primer from Blockchain at Berkeley covering what prediction markets are, how order books translate bids and asks into probabilities, why they matter for business, media, and policy, and the Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison (offshore crypto-native vs CFTC-regulated; public onchain trades vs private USD activity). Good…

Wednesday, 22 April 2026
RESEARCHX @xomarket

Catalog of 14 resolution failures over 18 months at Polymarket and Kalshi affecting over $500M in volume, including the $242M Zelenskyy-suit market, the $120M TikTok ban, and the $47M Cardi B halftime market that resolved yes on Polymarket and no on Kalshi. Groups the failures into four patterns: vague criteria, decentralized oracle…

RESEARCHark-invest.com

ARK Invest sizes the prediction market opportunity at $1-5 trillion medium-term by benchmarking against global OTC derivative volumes. Argues that sports volumes are largely regulatory arbitrage from states without legal online sports betting and that the real disruption lies in event contracts unbundling risk from traditional…

Tuesday, 21 April 2026
RESEARCHX @meleemarkets

Argues that central limit order books fixed the capital destruction problem of early Polymarket AMMs but introduced a new pathology: passive participation is impossible, and only professional market makers can quote. Kalshi reportedly has 23 active market makers with the top three providing 70% of election-contract liquidity, meaning any…

RESEARCHX @Ranger_Global

Part 1 of a Ranger Global research series on onchain prediction market microstructure. Walks through why CLOBs beat constant-product AMMs for binary events, the YES/NO minting and merging invariant that lets depth expand whenever matched counterparties exist, and probability-scaled dynamic fees that shrink near 0 and 1.

RESEARCHX @mominsaqib

Skeptical counter to the democratizing-finance framing around prediction markets. Cites Polymarket data showing 70% of 1.7 million addresses lost money and that the top 0.04% captured over 70% of the $3.7B in realized profits, and argues the structure predictably funnels retail into informed counterparties (including platform-operated…

RESEARCHX @uselotusai

Survey of recent research on why conventional market making fails in prediction markets. Covers cross-venue fragmentation (the same contract at 58-67 cents on different platforms), the January 2026 Polymarket XRP exploit that paid $231K on thin weekend liquidity, Kalshi's structural longshot bias, and evidence from 150M Polymarket trades…

Thursday, 16 April 2026
RESEARCHopen.substack.com

a16z's overview of institutional adoption of prediction markets, centered on Kalshi. Outlines a three-stage framework: using markets as data sources, integrating them into compliance workflows, and finally actively hedging risk.

RESEARCHX @Kunallegendd

Data-driven analysis benchmarking Kalshi's sports markets against traditional sportsbooks. Kalshi's monthly volume grew 80x to $14.4B in March 2026, with NCAA March Madness generating $3.3B in notional volume comparable to total US wagered on the tournament.

Wednesday, 15 April 2026
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

There's a thin line between personal choice and public harm

RESEARCHX @0xturbanurban

Reframes prediction markets as consumer-wrapped binary options, drawing on the author's OTC commodity derivatives background. Introduces Minsky's 'vega wedge' as the structural overcharge that binary hedgers pay when they replicate via vanilla options (around 4.8% for BTC binaries, 7-20% for gold), and argues prediction markets can…

Tuesday, 14 April 2026
RESEARCHX @Dune

On-chain analysis of Polymarket's fast crypto markets from September 2025 through March 2026. Five-minute contracts overtook 15-minute in weeks ($2.3B vs $795M in notional volume), bots control 55-62% of volume across fast markets, and Bitcoin drives 77% of turnover.

Monday, 13 April 2026
RESEARCHX @meleemarkets

Historical walkthrough of why LMSR-based automated market makers structurally failed for prediction markets. In a binary market that resolves to 0 or 1, impermanent loss becomes permanent: the pool inevitably holds worthless shares on the losing side, and trading fees cannot offset a guaranteed structural loss.

RESEARCHX @uselotusxyz

Announces Lotus, an execution layer for prediction markets that aggregates fragmented liquidity across venues without owning any itself. The same events trade in isolated silos with different formats, resolution rules, and depth, producing poor price discovery and high slippage — the same problem DeFi DEXs faced before aggregators.

Sunday, 12 April 2026
RESEARCHX @mphrediction

Builder's bullish case for a prediction market supercycle, written from the perspective of the founder behind Kreo (a Polymarket automation product). Argues the space is still early based on the absence of cult-like community formation compared to NFTs or meme-coins, nascent builders programs, and upcoming permissionless markets.

Saturday, 11 April 2026
RESEARCHthetokendispatch.com

Critique of the narrative that prediction markets are truth machines. Polymarket's headline Brier score of 0.047 masks category-specific failures like sports markets scoring 0.325 (worse than a coin flip), and 99% of volume concentrates in the final hours before resolution.

Thursday, 9 April 2026
RESEARCHX @4castersbet

Applies the sportsbook industry's square vs. sharp distinction to prediction markets.

RESEARCHBloomberg

Bloomberg Businessweek feature on the regulatory and cultural collision as prediction markets blur the boundary between financial trading and sports gambling. Covers how billions in volume have attracted enforcement actions from multiple states, insider trading concerns, and partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and major sports leagues.

RESEARCHtheagenticanalyst.substack.com

Proposes a workflow for using prediction market probabilities as inputs to equity valuation models. Walks through two case studies: translating Polymarket's 51% tariff refund probability into a 35% effective probability for Logitech's margin impact, and converting a 29.5% FDA approval probability into a $5.4B probability-weighted EV…

Tuesday, 7 April 2026
RESEARCHX @0xMims

Landscape report comparing four models for adding leverage to prediction markets: lending pools (Gondor/Morpho-style), prime brokers (Ultramarkets), synthetic desks (CFD counterparties), and perpetual futures (dYdX TRUMPWIN). Sizes the fee revenue opportunity at $15M base case to $50.7M bull case, with 87% driven by financing revenue on…

RESEARCHX @Yuri_Gubert

Market sizing report on Brazil as a prediction market opportunity. The country is simultaneously the 5th largest betting market ($4.1B GGR, 25M bettors) and 5th in crypto adoption ($6-8B monthly, 90% stablecoins), creating a $100B+ serviceable market with no domestic platform offering event trading mechanics.

RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

The first comprehensive empirical look at who actually profits on Polymarket and who doesn’t. Analyzing 588 million trades and $67 billion in volume, the paper finds the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of profits through disciplined limit order strategies, while the bottom 90% lose money taking liquidity with market orders.

Monday, 6 April 2026
RESEARCHX @meleemarkets

Traces the parimutuel betting model from its 1867 origins in French horse racing to modern prediction markets. Argues that parimutuel pools solve the cold start problem by bootstrapping liquidity without market makers, but identifies three friction points that need upgrading: locked positions, timing constraints, and price readability.

RESEARCHX @kaviish

Industry analysis mapping $63.5 billion in 2025 prediction market volume and a $200 billion+ 2026 run rate. Identifies a structural tension: sports drive current revenue (83% of Kalshi volume), but valuations price in an information infrastructure future that hasn't arrived yet.

RESEARCHdopaminemarkets.com

Breaks down the legal fight over whether sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, which would give the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempt state gambling laws. Courts are split across 19 pending federal lawsuits, with the Third Circuit ruling in Kalshi's favor.

Wednesday, 1 April 2026
RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

Empirical paper finding that prediction market accuracy is not the wisdom of crowds. Roughly 3% of accounts drive most price discovery: their trades anticipate future prices, respond to news immediately, and improve calibration across a market's lifecycle.

Tuesday, 31 March 2026
RESEARCHrajivsethi.substack.com

Traces how insider trades on Polymarket before Trump's March 2026 Iran announcement may have leaked into regulated oil and stock futures markets. Proposes that quant funds extracted the informational signal from pseudonymous crypto trades and acted on it in KYC-regulated venues, all without breaking existing laws.

RESEARCHblogs.law.ox.ac.uk

European regulators face a classification problem: prediction market contracts could be gambling, MiFID II derivatives, or something else entirely, and different Member States treat them differently. Proposes a structured 'Prediction Test' modeled on Malta's Financial Instrument Test for crypto-assets, which would systematically…

Monday, 30 March 2026
RESEARCHX @BlondiePredicts

Argues that prediction markets are a proof of concept for a broader shift: probability as infrastructure. Proposes three 'probability layers' beyond trading: attention markets that price content virality forward, credibility markets that turn trust into a continuously updated score, and demand markets that capture consumer intent before…

Friday, 27 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Analyzes 7,292 resolved Polymarket markets and 28,793 on-chain trades to test whether yes bias exists in trade data. Finds that traders buy whichever token is cheaper, not whichever is labeled YES, and that the apparent bias is a compound effect of longshot preference channeled through Polymarket's "Will X happen?" question framing,…

RESEARCHx.com

Categorizes every active Polymarket wallet across trade frequency and volume tiers, producing a seven-persona map of platform participants. Finds that 2% of users (high-frequency, high-capital wallets) generate roughly 90% of all platform volume, with crypto markets dominated by algorithmic execution and politics markets driven by casual…

Wednesday, 25 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Frames prediction market prices as public goods whose benefits are non-excludable but whose liquidity costs fall on a narrow trader base. Proposes cross-subsidization as the growth mechanism: profitable markets fund socially valuable ones that can't sustain themselves, the same way newspaper ads funded investigative journalism.

RESEARCHcorpgov.law.harvard.edu

Screens 93,000 Polymarket markets and flags traders with a 69.9% win rate, more than 60 standard deviations above chance, estimating $143 million in anomalous profits. Documents specific cases from geopolitical events to celebrity announcements where wallets appear to trade on material non-public information.

Tuesday, 24 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Uses the March 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis to argue that binary order-book prediction markets hit an architectural ceiling when pricing granular, multi-outcome risk. Compares how traditional options solve this for tradable assets, then explains how automated market scoring rules (LMSR/CLMSR) offer protocol-native liquidity, coherent…

RESEARCHcheapconvexity.substack.com

Introduces implied correlation as a trading opportunity in prediction markets. Polymarket currently prices a 60%+ chance of 5% unemployment this year alongside only a 10% chance of aggressive Fed rate cuts, even though every historical episode of that unemployment spike triggered an average of seven cuts.

Thursday, 19 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Analyzes 600 million Polymarket orderbook datapoints, finding ~70% of one-cent price moves do not continue in the same direction. Coins 'semantic tick size' to describe how a prediction market's minimum price increment doubles as a narrative unit—each penny reads as a one-percentage-point probability change, creating overreactions that a…

RESEARCHoddchain.com

Asks whether large language models can outperform prediction market consensus prices and argues the more tractable framing is using LLMs as updaters rather than predictors. Distinguishes cold prediction (generating a probability estimate without prior context) from updating (revising an existing estimate as new information arrives), and…

Wednesday, 18 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Sets out to defend insider trading in prediction markets but arrives at a more conditional position. Introduces a 'discovery vs betrayal' framework: in distributed-truth markets like elections, informed traders sharpen the signal because no one holds the full answer; in concentrated-truth markets like earnings, insiders monetize sealed…

RESEARCHcongress.gov

Congressional Research Service legal sidebar analyzing whether and how insider trading law applies to prediction markets. Walks through SEC Rule 10b-5, CFTC Rule 180.1, the STOCK Act, and Title 18 criminal statutes, then examines the CFTC's February 2026 advisory on two Kalshi enforcement actions.

Monday, 16 March 2026
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

On the wisdom of crowds, and those who profit from it

RESEARCHx.com

Walks through UMA's Optimistic Oracle pipeline as used by Polymarket: assertion, liveness period, dispute, and DVM token-holder voting. Uses the $240M Zelenskyy suit market as a case study where semantic ambiguity ('Is a militarized black outfit a suit?') triggered a disputed resolution ultimately decided by whale token holders,…

Friday, 13 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Identifies five MEV-style edges on Polymarket that most retail traders are unaware of: oracle latency arbitrage (trading on news before UMA oracle updates), resolution arbitrage (front-running outcome settlement), dispute sniping (gaming the UMA dispute process), orderbook imbalance exploitation, and conditional probability arbitrage…

RESEARCHx.com

Challenges the smart-versus-dumb money dichotomy in prediction markets by synthesizing research from Snowberg/Wolfers/Zitzewitz, INSEAD's BIN model, and Wharton's cognitive search framework. Argues that noisy traders fund the probability space rather than serve as exit liquidity, and compares how binary CLOBs versus continuous…

Wednesday, 11 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Data-driven deep dive into Polymarket's order book structure using 600M+ raw datapoints filtered to a 343M research dataset. Categorizes order flow into soft (retail), hard (professional), and AI flow, revealing that Polymarket's liquidity is episodic and attention-driven: the p95 peak hour shows hundreds of millions in open interest…

Sunday, 8 March 2026
RESEARCHsybilpm.substack.com

Uses the case of a trader sniping Polymarket's geopolitical strike markets at 10 cents to argue that continuous order books are structurally broken for binary assets. In traditional markets, sniping costs basis points; in prediction markets, it costs 80 cents on the dollar because prices jump from 0.10 to 0.99 on a single tweet.

Friday, 6 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Reviews Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting and draws a direct line from the book's core thesis — that forecasting skill is measurable, trainable, and outperforms expert punditry — to Polymarket's success during the 2024 US election. Explains Tetlock's key concepts (foxes vs hedgehogs, the Good Judgment Project, Brier scores, calibration)…

Thursday, 5 March 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Comprehensive research report on AI agents for prediction markets, proposing a four-layer architecture (data, analysis, execution, learning) for autonomous trading systems. Maps the ecosystem of existing agents, compares Kelly criterion vs fixed-fraction bet sizing, surveys arbitrage strategies across platforms, and outlines business…

Wednesday, 4 March 2026
RESEARCHalejandrosoumah.substack.com

He pushes the boulder. It rolls back.

RESEARCHx.com

Traces the history of prediction markets from 1419 Vatican papal elections through the Iowa Electronic Markets to the Polymarket era, arguing the sector is at an inflection point. Surveys the insider trading scandals (Musk tweets, French elections), moral hazard concerns (assassination markets), and the wave of new entrants (Robinhood,…

Sunday, 1 March 2026
RESEARCHmorganlewis.com

Written by a former CFTC General Counsel, argues that courts in sports event contract litigation are overlooking the strongest basis for CFTC jurisdiction: the Commodity Exchange Act's 'commonly known to the trade' catchall, which classifies any transaction the derivatives industry calls a swap as one. Since every exchange, broker, and…

RESEARCHslampaper.xyz

Quantifies when prediction markets become structurally cheaper than derivatives for pricing binary institutional risk. Analyzes 87 contracts across 11 categories and finds that high-VRP categories like Bitcoin (4.83%) and elections already cross the displacement threshold, while FOMC markets compressed from a 12 percentage point cost gap…

Saturday, 28 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Argues that prediction markets will replace traditional advertising by converting ad spend into liquidity that rewards deep attention rather than buying fleeting impressions. The proposed model: a sponsor seeds a market with $50k–$500k, traders discover it and research the topic to profit, then share analysis organically — creating…

RESEARCHx.com

Written during the US-Israel strikes on Iran, examines whether prediction markets on armed conflicts are net informational goods or perverse incentive engines. Dissects the IDF insider trading case where soldiers traded Polymarket positions before strikes, the CFTC's regulatory stance, and the divergent approaches of Kalshi (regulated,…

RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

Analyzes tick-level order flow across Polymarket and Kalshi to decompose market bias by trader type. Finds that the classic favorite-longshot bias may be a statistical artifact masking a pervasive "yes bias" driven by temporal volatility and incomplete controls for contract lifecycle.

Thursday, 26 February 2026
RESEARCHX @linfluence

A Reforge co-founder's bearish case against prediction markets, structured as 23 distinct failure modes. Covers structural constraints across capital efficiency, liquidity mechanics, adverse selection, oracle governance, and regulatory fragmentation.

Wednesday, 25 February 2026
RESEARCHjprz1321.substack.com

Frames prediction markets as a real-time information layer that complements traditional journalism by aggregating probabilistic forecasts from financially-incentivized participants. Argues that skin-in-the-game accountability produces more accurate signals than commentary-based analysis, with price movements often anticipating news…

Tuesday, 24 February 2026
RESEARCHfiftycentdollars.substack.com

Analysis of 149 CPI prediction markets on Kalshi from 2021 to 2026 finds that trading volume explains less than 1% of variance in forecast accuracy, challenging the assumption that more liquidity improves market quality. Introduces Minimum Viable Liquidity (Cost of Expertise divided by Price Gap) as a framework for determining the…

Monday, 23 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Argues that prediction markets are financial instruments, not gambling, by examining Polymarket's architecture across multiple layers: peer-to-peer order book mechanics, information aggregation through skin-in-the-game pricing, hedging use cases, and UX design that suppresses gambling patterns. Contrasts the exchange model with the…

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Fits a Bayesian hierarchical model to 292 million trades across 327,000 contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket to decompose calibration errors into structured components: universal horizon effects, domain-specific biases, and trade-size scale effects, which together explain 87.3% of variance on Kalshi. Finds persistent underconfidence in…

Monday, 16 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Argues prediction markets are the natural marketplace for sovereign AI agents to trade their core commodity: information. Frames decentralized PMs as the 'bazaar' where agents monetize alpha through positions, market creators earn fees from surfacing unanswered questions, and reproducible computation enables incorruptible AI judges for…

Saturday, 14 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Bottoms-up TAM analysis arguing prediction markets can reach $85-200B annual volume by 2028 through sports betting capture (5-20%), event-driven financial hedging, and emerging categories. Covers five infrastructure challenges that must be solved: liquidity sustainability (subsidized MM transitioning to self-sustaining), discovery/UX,…

Friday, 13 February 2026
RESEARCHfreesystems.substack.com

Six-month empirical analysis of political prediction market quality across Kalshi and Polymarket. Finds only 1.3% of political markets are liquid enough to be manipulation-resistant, bid-ask spreads exceed 20% on most contracts, and only 53% of resolved US elections appeared on both platforms.

Tuesday, 10 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Identifies seven axes on which new prediction market entrants can differentiate: product quality, asset variety, capital efficiency, oracle reliability, liquidity provision, regulatory compliance, and vertical vs. horizontal strategy.

RESEARCHdopaminemarkets.com

Argues that insider trading in prediction markets is structurally different from traditional securities markets because prediction markets can make almost anything tradable, often in contexts where relevant confidentiality duties are unclear. Proposes solutions across three layers: platform-level detection and position limits scaled to…

Monday, 9 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Provides a quantitative framework for distinguishing gambling from systematic trading on prediction markets, including a five-point diagnostic and three trader archetypes classified by profitability. Explains why Polymarket's CLOB creates renewable structural arbitrage by design, and covers Kelly position sizing, adverse selection…

RESEARCHx.com

Argues prediction markets are evolving a second layer analogous to derivatives built on stock exchanges. Covers three hedging use cases: crypto risk hedging via binary price markets, attention markets (Trendle) as sentiment hedges against binary positions, and cross-platform hedging enabled by DeFi composability (Gondor lending against…

Saturday, 7 February 2026
RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

Decomposes 222 million Polymarket trades into directional and execution components and finds that forecasting accuracy does not predict profitability. Traders who pick the right side still lose money because they arrive late and pay unfavorable prices, while automated traders with near-random directional skill profit by paying 2.52 cents…

Friday, 6 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Legal analysis explaining that insider trading in prediction markets is governed by existing fraud law rather than a distinct insider trading statute. The key question is whether a trader has deceptively breached an implied or explicit promise about how confidential information may be used.

RESEARCHFinancial Times

FT Alphaville piece documenting the practice of 'bonding' in prediction markets: treating near-certain outcomes as synthetic zero-coupon bonds to earn a small but near-guaranteed yield. Uses the Polymarket 'Will Jesus Christ return' market as the central example, where betting 'No' at 96% odds implies a 4.76% yield to maturity.

Thursday, 5 February 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Catalogs eight distinct arbitrage strategies available on prediction markets: classic YES+NO mispricing, cross-platform, range, conditional, time, hedged, resolution, and orderflow arbitrage. Each type includes concrete examples with dollar amounts and specific risk factors to watch for.

RESEARCHpanteraresearchlab.xyz

Compares Kalshi and Polymarket's NFL game markets during the 2025 season. Finds Kalshi reprices faster (median 7-second lead) while Polymarket has deeper liquidity requiring 3-4x more volume to move prices comparably.

Wednesday, 4 February 2026
RESEARCHarxiv.org

This paper studies how to design input context for LLMs to forecast mention market outcomes, where contracts resolve based on whether a company mentions a specified keyword during its earnings call. The authors introduce Market-Conditioned Prompting (MCP), which treats the market price as a Bayesian prior and instructs the LLM to update…

RESEARCHarxiv.org

Proposes a two-stage screener that uses Granger causality to find lead-lag pairs across Kalshi Economics markets, then passes candidates through an LLM that checks whether the proposed direction has a plausible economic transmission mechanism based on event descriptions. The LLM re-ranker barely moves the win rate (51.4% to 54.5%), but…

Tuesday, 3 February 2026
RESEARCHfiftycentdollars.substack.com

Responds to Kyla Scanlon's New York Times op-ed claiming prediction markets create reflexive loops that alter outcomes. Argues that unlike stock markets, prediction markets lack causal mechanisms through which odds could influence the events they forecast, making them thermometers rather than thermostats.

Thursday, 29 January 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Summarizes research analyzing 72 million Kalshi trades. Identifies three persistent biases: longshot bias (5c contracts win only 4.18% of the time), maker-taker asymmetry (makers outperform at 80 of 99 price levels), and YES/NO asymmetry (YES buyers average -1.02% returns vs +0.83% for NO buyers).

RESEARCHx.com

Argues prediction markets are becoming a legitimate asset class with potentially the largest TAM, since anything with uncertainty and future resolution is tradable. Notes the category has reached an inflection point with professionals entering, but lacks proper tooling that mature asset classes have (Bloomberg for stocks, Axiom for…

Tuesday, 27 January 2026
RESEARCHmedium.com

Surveys the landscape of teams trying to add leverage to prediction markets and explains why most are converging on 1x to 1.5x rather than the 10x or 20x they advertise. The core problem is gap risk: binary outcomes resolve instantly, skipping the intermediate prices that liquidation engines need to function.

Monday, 26 January 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Argues prediction market builders face a binary choice: compete for venue liquidity against entrenched incumbents (Polymarket, Kalshi) or build decision-support tools for power users. Claims the most valuable layer is not the marketplace but analytics and tooling that helps traders surface mispriced probabilities, model correlated…

Tuesday, 20 January 2026
RESEARCHX @outpxce

First-person account from a seven-figure prediction market trader. Covers strategy as a 'bond mule' (locking capital for small premiums on near-resolution markets), OSINT information sources (non-English media, Telegram), fractional Kelly sizing, and trading personality-driven markets.

Monday, 19 January 2026
RESEARCHgalaxy.com

Galaxy research report on prediction markets evolving from niche speculation to mainstream financial infrastructure. Covers Polymarket ($9B valuation, 1.6M users) and Kalshi (top finance iOS app), emerging leverage mechanisms (Space, Gondor), AI as interface layer for fragmented venues, and convergence toward derivatives—event contracts…

Tuesday, 13 January 2026
RESEARCHastralcodexten.com

Scott Alexander proposes a novel secondary-market mechanism to solve the confounding problem in conditional decision markets, where standard predictions conflate a candidate's causal impact with correlated background conditions. Also surveys the state of prediction markets at billions in monthly volume, covering resolution criteria…

Monday, 12 January 2026
RESEARCHgalaxy.com

Argues prediction markets' next phase involves Impact Markets (pricing assets conditional on events, e.g., 'BTC price if Fed cuts 75bp') and Decision Markets (using conditional valuations to automate governance). Claims Impact Markets enable true economic hedging by collapsing multi-step inference into direct price discovery.

RESEARCHreachavci.substack.com

Draws a parallel between prediction markets and Nielsen ratings to argue that coordination value matters more than accuracy. Points to Polymarket's Golden Globes and WSJ partnerships and Kalshi's CNN deal as signs that prediction markets are shifting from external forecasting tools to embedded institutional infrastructure.

RESEARCHspartangroup.notion.site

Spartan Labs explores what happens when you give Andrej Karpathy's LLM Council design actual stakes. Their Simmer prototype runs 30 AI agents across 6 models and 5 reasoning personas in an LMSR market, producing a capital-weighted forecast without requiring human liquidity.

Thursday, 8 January 2026
RESEARCHdopaminemarkets.com

Annual letter arguing that retail financial speculation has permanently shifted from investment to entertainment, driven by smartphone access and zero-commission trading. Documents the collapse of holding periods, zero-day options comprising 59% of options volume in 2025, and the proliferation of insider trading cases across sports and…

Wednesday, 7 January 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Argues that nearly any prediction market tied to a public figure's actions, tenure, or appearances implicitly embeds assassination as a resolution path — what the authors call 'kinetic intervention.' Uses the Charlie Kirk assassination and subsequent Kalshi market voiding as the central case study. Warns that blanket void-on-death rules…

Tuesday, 6 January 2026
RESEARCHx.com

Manifesto arguing binary yes/no prediction markets are incomplete—they flatten nuanced beliefs into coin flips and pay the same whether you were barely right or sharply right. Proposes distribution-native markets that reward precision: pay more for being closer to the actual outcome.

Thursday, 1 January 2026
RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

An academic paper from Stanford and Singapore Management University studying how prediction market participants can manipulate the settlement process itself — the mechanism by which outcome data feeds into market resolution. Extends the manipulation literature beyond the trading phase to examine oracle-level attacks, where traders profit…

RESEARCHpapers.ssrn.com

An academic paper that examines cryptocurrency prediction markets through the lens of derivatives pricing, using trade data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Treats event contracts as option-like claims and analyzes their prices for variance risk premia, volatility patterns, and skewness — asking how much of a prediction market price reflects…

Tuesday, 30 December 2025
RESEARCHoddchain.com

Critiques Kalshi's 2025 measles cases market as an example of prediction markets being applied to inappropriate domains. Argues that turning a public health crisis into a speculative instrument is ethically questionable and reflects poorly on the industry's judgment about which events deserve tradeable contracts.

Thursday, 18 December 2025
RESEARCHgoodauthority.org

Examines Clinton and Huang's research on 2024 election market accuracy, finding PredictIt at 93%, Kalshi at 78%, and Polymarket at 67%, while also documenting significant cross-platform price divergences for identical contracts near Election Day. Raises concerns about Kalshi's media partnerships with CNN and CNBC, arguing they create…

Monday, 15 December 2025
RESEARCHblog.monad.xyz

Examines Trendle, a perpetual attention market that treats social engagement as a tradable index. Covers the two-layer architecture (attention index + market layer), anti-gaming mechanisms (normalization, deseasonalization, quantile clipping), and funding rates that penalize crowded positions.

Thursday, 4 December 2025
RESEARCHblockworks.com

Anthropic researchers report that their AI agents successfully exploited 56% of vulnerable smart contracts

Friday, 28 November 2025
RESEARCHx.com

Argues prediction markets treat reflexivity as a bug, but hyperstition markets weaponize it as a feature. Where prediction markets ask 'what will happen?', hyperstition markets ask 'what can we make happen?' Positions this as futarchy with execution built in—betting YES means coordinating action toward manifestation.

Tuesday, 25 November 2025
RESEARCHX @gracedengx

Grace Deng from SevenX Ventures compares prediction markets against sports betting incumbents like DraftKings across product, business model, and legal dimensions. Parlay complexity gives traditional sportsbooks a structural advantage that orderbook-based platforms cannot easily replicate.

Saturday, 22 November 2025
RESEARCHx.com

Comprehensive taxonomy of 14 prediction market mechanism types beyond standard binary markets. Covers bonding curve markets, opinion markets (beauty contests), opportunity markets (private prices), hyperstition markets (self-fulfilling coordination), futarchy (MetaDAO), perpetual markets, quantum markets (capital-efficient parallel…

Thursday, 20 November 2025
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

The Prevention Paradox, and why focusing on addicts misses the point

Wednesday, 12 November 2025
RESEARCHrajivsethi.substack.com

Examines how to distinguish wash trading from legitimate market making on Polymarket using network analysis. Wash traders exhibit homophily, trading only within their collusive group, while market makers trade indiscriminately with diverse counterparties.

Tuesday, 11 November 2025
RESEARCHblog.monad.xyz

Explains the SKC (Srinivasan, Karger, Chen) mechanism for prediction markets on unverifiable outcomes. Markets resolve using crowd consensus as the outcome, with delta-based scoring rewarding participants for moving markets toward final consensus.

Thursday, 6 November 2025
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

Expected value is tidy, actual results are messy

Wednesday, 5 November 2025
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

For the creator economy to thrive in an increasingly noisy environment, it needs the curator economy, a symbiotic layer dedicated to filtering.

Thursday, 30 October 2025
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

Decoding the recent FBI investigations

Friday, 17 October 2025
RESEARCHarxiv.org

Proposes a unified stochastic kernel (logit jump-diffusion) for prediction markets analogous to Black-Scholes for options. Treats traded probability as a risk-neutral martingale, exposing belief volatility, jump intensity, and correlation as quotable risk factors.

Wednesday, 8 October 2025
RESEARCHforecastingresearch.substack.com

Presents ForecastBench, a benchmark tracking how well LLMs forecast real-world outcomes against superforecasters and crowd forecasters. The best LLM (GPT-4.5) achieves a Brier score of 0.101 versus superforecasters' 0.081, with LLMs improving roughly 0.016 Brier points per year, projecting parity by late 2026.

Thursday, 18 September 2025
RESEARCHx.com

Compares the traditional sportsbook house model with prediction market exchanges to explain why exchanges offer better odds. Uses data showing Betfair's ~3% overround versus bookmakers' ~12% to argue that peer-to-peer exchange models produce fairer pricing and welcome all winners, unlike sportsbooks that limit successful bettors.

Sunday, 14 September 2025
RESEARCHX @Baheet_

Comprehensive technical typology covering how prediction markets differ in outcome resolution (oracle-based vs self-resolving), trading mechanics, and design tradeoffs. Draws from established platforms and emerging ones to help users and developers navigate the ecosystem's diversity and associated risks.

Monday, 18 August 2025
RESEARCHparadigm.xyz

Introduces 'opportunity markets' where prices remain hidden from everyone except the sponsor during an opportunity window. Designed to let institutions discover high-probability opportunities (talent scouting, research commercialization) before competitors can access the signal, solving the public goods problem of price discovery.

Sunday, 17 August 2025
RESEARCHreducibleerrors.com

Skeptical take arguing prediction markets are dangerous policy despite theoretical appeal. Claims they lack heterogeneous risk preferences necessary for efficiency, relying instead on continuous retail losses.

Saturday, 9 August 2025
RESEARCHX @klos

Comprehensive survey of 20+ prediction market projects organized by X follower count. Categorizes into real-money platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Augur), play-money (Manifold), defunct (Veil), and protocols (Azuro).

Tuesday, 5 August 2025
RESEARCHarxiv.org

Examines mispricing inefficiencies on Polymarket, identifying two categories of arbitrage opportunities: those within single markets and those spanning multiple related markets. Using blockchain transaction analysis, the researchers estimate approximately $40 million in profits were extracted through exploitation of these pricing…

Saturday, 2 August 2025
RESEARCHantidiluvian.substack.com

Argues prediction markets should adopt batched auction mechanisms instead of continuous limit order books. Claims no practical social benefit exists from sub-second reaction times, and batching would redirect trader effort toward meaningful questions while reducing zero-sum speed competition.

Friday, 1 August 2025
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

Prediction markets are getting a social makeover - where every bet becomes a stake-backed opinion in your endless scroll

Thursday, 31 July 2025
RESEARCHX @masonnystrom

Identifies three characteristics successful prediction markets will focus on: high leverage (parlays, perps, intraday events), highly frequent markets (for retention), and high market outcome values (for capital attraction). Notes the prediction market wars have only begun.

Tuesday, 29 July 2025
RESEARCHX @aradtski

Argues the Oracle Problem for prediction markets is actually a definition problem, not a trustlessness problem. Lists 12+ Polymarket controversies where contention arose from ambiguous event definitions, not oracle failures.

Thursday, 24 July 2025
RESEARCHhowgamblingworks.substack.com

We aren’t meant to have a casino in our pocket

Friday, 18 July 2025
RESEARCHX @voliti_co

Proposes 'covariance markets' as a solution to offering joint probability bets (parlays) without fragmenting liquidity. Instead of creating separate markets for all AND/OR combinations, a single covariance market between two base markets enables all 8 joint combinations while maintaining concentrated liquidity.

Tuesday, 8 July 2025
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

Why patching the old financial grid misses the point and what a crypto-native alternative could look like.

Friday, 20 June 2025
RESEARCHalejandrosoumah.substack.com

You're Overpriced and You Don't Know It

Thursday, 19 June 2025
RESEARCHalejandrosoumah.substack.com

This is ITO RESEARCH.

Tuesday, 27 May 2025
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

Why I think the prediction market landscape will be fragmented

Thursday, 15 May 2025
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

Lossiness in LLM seems to be fundamental: no single model can memorize the entire internet with perfect precision. Making a model larger improves fidelity, but never eliminates the blur.

Wednesday, 30 April 2025
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" - Charles Goodhart

Saturday, 5 April 2025
RESEARCHlesswrong.com

Challenges the conception that prediction markets serve as effective policy tools. Argues that conditional prediction markets proposing 'Will X lead to consequence Y?' fail to translate probability assessments into meaningful policy guidance despite being their central theoretical appeal.

Tuesday, 25 March 2025
RESEARCHlesswrong.com

Examines the paradox of a Polymarket on Jesus Christ's return trading at 3% with over $100k wagered. Identifies two mysteries: why no one arbitrages the mispricing (requires ~$1M lockup for minimal 1% return), and why anyone bets 'Yes' at all (true believers, resolution gaming, or novelty value).

Wednesday, 5 March 2025
RESEARCHarxiv.org

Large-scale field experiment testing prediction market manipulation across 817 markets. Randomly shocked prices and tracked effects over 60 days with hourly data.

Wednesday, 15 January 2025
RESEARCHdocsend.com

Comprehensive 57-page guide covering prediction market fundamentals, tech stack (blockchain, collateral, market engines, oracles), current state (Polymarket vs Kalshi regulatory and product divergence), emerging builders across market engines and consumer apps, and open questions including oracle collusion, long-dated capital costs, and…

Tuesday, 14 January 2025
RESEARCHbpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com

Academic survey of prediction mechanism design from a mechanism design perspective. Covers scoring rules, market scoring rules (LMSR), cost-function-based market makers, dynamic parimutuel markets, incentive compatibility, combinatorial markets, and peer prediction systems for subjective events where ground truth doesn't exist.

Thursday, 9 January 2025
RESEARCHX @michael_lwy

Post-mortem of Polymarket's US government shutdown market, where the market resolved 'Yes' to a shutdown that never happened. Traces the failure to structural issues in oracle design: token holders who can trade and vote, retroactive rule changes, and a corruption cost lower than the value at stake.

Wednesday, 18 December 2024
RESEARCHrnikhil.com

Argues prediction markets face fundamental barriers to scaling beyond sports and elections due to misaligned incentives: speculators demand rapid resolutions (42% of election volume in final week), investors prefer wealth-building assets over locked capital, and market makers need consistent retail flow that doesn't exist for niche…

Thursday, 21 November 2024
RESEARCHa16zcrypto.com

Podcast discussion separating hype from reality in prediction markets. Covers foundational mechanics, comparative advantages over pollsters and experts, and future applications including corporate decision-making, scientific reproducibility, and governance innovations.

Saturday, 9 November 2024
RESEARCHvitalik.eth.limo

Argues that prediction markets represent one application within a broader 'info finance' ecosystem. Proposes these mechanisms can improve governance, scientific research, journalism, and social media through information-pricing mechanisms that go beyond simple betting.

Saturday, 2 November 2024
RESEARCHdirtroads.substack.com

Critical analysis of prediction market reliability during the 2024 US election. Documents how four coordinated accounts controlled 23% of Polymarket's open interest, 41% of volume appeared to be wash trading, and argues current platforms lack the structural conditions for reliable forecasting.

Friday, 1 November 2024
RESEARCHasteriskmag.com

Dan Schwarz, who built both of Google's internal prediction markets across two decades, tells the inside story of why they struggled and what it means for the future. Prophit (2005–2011) attracted 20% of Google employees but died when regulatory approval for an external launch stalled.

Monday, 28 October 2024
RESEARCHumbraresearch.xyz

Argues that asset futarchy solves trustless joint ownership by making treasury raids economically irrational: exploiting minority shareholders requires buying their tokens above fair value while simultaneously depressing conditional market prices, making the attack self-defeating by construction. Examines MetaDAO's implementation and…

Wednesday, 23 October 2024
RESEARCHdecentralised.co

Frames prediction markets as predecessors to financialized social networks. Uses Polymarket (which briefly hit #1 in app stores) as evidence that linking user views to financial stakes creates engagement through capital formation rather than pure attention capture.

Sunday, 20 October 2024
RESEARCHmedium.com

Speculates on how Polymarket's 2024 presidential election market could be manipulated through its oracle system. Argues that Fox News was chosen as an oracle despite being unlikely to call the election for a non-Trump candidate, and that UMA token holders could sway disputed resolution votes given UMA's small market cap.

Friday, 11 October 2024
RESEARCHdirtroads.substack.com

Technical primer on prediction market design, from wisdom of crowds theory to decentralized oracle mechanisms. Argues prediction markets could systematize event probabilities to expand financial markets like derivatives did historically, but current implementations face challenges in liquidity fragmentation, oracle incentives, and…

Wednesday, 9 October 2024
RESEARCHresearch.mintventures.fund

Characterizes Polymarket as a crypto media/creator economy platform rather than just an event-trading platform. Notes the 166:1 ratio of monthly visits to MAU suggests significant non-trading visitors, and that Polymarket users are older and less focused on maximizing risk-reward compared to typical crypto traders.

Tuesday, 8 October 2024
RESEARCHshoal.gg

Research report on Polymarket's growth (35x increase in weekly active users from May to September 2024) and competitive positioning. Covers technical infrastructure (Gnosis CTF, UMA oracles, PolyLend), participant biases, and oracle complications like the Venezuelan election dispute.

Thursday, 22 August 2024
RESEARCHparagraph.com

Technical explainer of how onchain prediction markets work, using Polymarket as the primary case study. Covers the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework, Central Limit Order Books vs AMMs, UMA Oracle dispute resolution mechanics, and liquidity incentive programs.

Saturday, 10 August 2024
RESEARCHnewsletter.asxn.xyz

Analysis of Polymarket's growth trajectory and business model. Notes that 99.2% of trading volume concentrates in political markets and two-thirds of cumulative volume occurred in the last six months, raising questions about sustainability beyond election cycles.

Thursday, 8 August 2024
RESEARCHfrankmuci.substack.com

Case study of Polymarket's Venezuelan election market, where UMA token-holders overrode the platform's own resolution rules to declare opposition candidate Gonzalez the winner despite official results. Highlights conflicts of interest when oracle voters can also bet on outcomes.

Monday, 22 April 2024
RESEARCHMaking interoperable dollar onchain

I was excited to learn that Luca Prosperi, the author of Dirt Roads — a blog I greatly admire — is working on a new project called M^ZERO Protocol. Initially, when I read the fundraising announcement, I found it challenging to grasp the vision of the project.

Thursday, 4 April 2024
RESEARCHmedium.com

Proposes using AI as the linchpin to scale prediction markets to billions of users. Envisions an AI quartet: content creators (generating markets), event recommenders (personalization), liquidity allocators, and information aggregators.

Tuesday, 26 March 2024
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

Two weeks ago Fred Erhsam posted the question “Will stablecoins become the largest holders of US treasuries?” on Farcaster through Bountycaster. I’m happy to share that my submission has been selected as one of the winners of this bounty.

Friday, 23 February 2024
RESEARCHDecentralized Prediction Markets

Introduction to decentralized prediction markets with a SWOT analysis of Polymarket. Covers how the platform works, its regulatory positioning, liquidity constraints, and growth opportunities.

Sunday, 4 February 2024
RESEARCHalternativeassets.substack.com

Explains how prediction markets work and debunks the common misconception that market prices equal probabilities. Breaks down why risk-free rates, opportunity costs, and spreads create systematic price deviations from true beliefs.

Saturday, 30 December 2023
RESEARCHThe dark horse of the interchain race

Why is Axelar best positioned to capture value in a modular interoperability stack, and how can the Axelar Virtual Machine unlock an interchain future?

Wednesday, 8 November 2023
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

As the competition heats up, which web3 wallet stands tall? Three frameworks to assess the landscape.

Wednesday, 7 June 2023
RESEARCHarxiv.org

Proposes a mechanism for prediction markets where outcomes cannot be objectively verified. Uses the last reporter's prediction as a reference point, creating incentives for truthful reporting through negative cross-entropy payments.

Sunday, 29 January 2023
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

A short note discussing what 'inside and outside' money actually mean.

Thursday, 1 September 2022
RESEARCHmichaellwy.substack.com

A brief survey of DeFi's progress in onboarding RWAs and how Silta Finance seeks to transform physical infrastructure delivery through DeFi.

Saturday, 23 July 2022
RESEARCHDAO governance and bicameralism

On the parallels between Lido's dual governance proposal and bicameralism and what DAOs can learn from constitutional engineering.

Monday, 15 February 2021
RESEARCHarxiv.org

Designs the first computationally efficient prediction market for continuous outcome distributions using interval securities. Achieves logarithmic-time operations by decomposing the LMSR into a balanced binary tree, and extends to parallel submarkets at multiple resolutions with constant bounded loss.

Monday, 16 September 2013
RESEARCHlink.springer.com

Investigates combinatorial prediction markets, which extend the standard model to support forecasts on conditional events (e.g., A given B) and Boolean combinations of events rather than only base events. Reports experimental results comparing combinatorial versus flat market structures on forecasting accuracy and calibration.