Holds 51% of the FanDuel Prediction Markets JV ($10.2m for the stake, equity-method) and lists the underlying contracts on its DCM. Restructured Aug 2026 so sports and novelties move to Crypto.com's Nadex, leaving CME the financial contracts only — reportedly under 1% of app activity.

Where to look: Broken out, but NOT in investor relations. The CME Daily Bulletin has a dedicated Section 73 titled EVENT CONTRACTS with per-contract open/high/low/close, settlement and cleared volume — a market-data file, not an IR one, and the best public series CME offers. The monthly ADV press release has NO event-contracts row at all. The earnings release carries one PM line: amortisation of purchased intangibles at the FanDuel JV, $1.4m in Q2. Call metrics: ~525m event contracts since launch, ~140k accounts trading them, ADV up ~40% on Q1.

Runs its own end-to-end stack: the DraftKings Predictions app (Dec 2025), an in-house CFTC-registered introducing broker and FCM, and DKeX, its proprietary exchange built on the Railbird DCM licence (Jun 2026). Railbird closed 21 Oct 2025 for ~$84.8m total consideration, with up to $200m contingent.

Where to look: Volume is broken out, revenue is not. Q2 2026 earnings PRESENTATION slide 5 charts "Annualized Volume Traded" split three ways — consumer, market maker, and total — running Dec-25 to Jul-26: $0.1bn rising to $11.0bn, of which July was $3.6bn consumer and $7.4bn market maker. BASIS TRAP: that figure is monthly volume x 12, not quarterly handle, so it must never be compared against anyone else's quarterly number. Nothing appears in the 10-Q or press release, where Prediction Markets revenue is folded into Sports Revenue and the company reports one segment. Railbird revenue since acquisition is stated "not material".

Has deployed $1.6bn CASH for roughly 22% of Polymarket (legal entity Blockratize) across two preferred rounds, and is its exclusive global distributor of event-driven data to institutions. Separately launched its own economic-indicator futures in Aug 2026 on Fed, ECB and BoE decisions — which ICE pointedly does not call event contracts.

Where to look: Broken out for the INVESTMENT, not for any operating metric. The 10-Q names Blockratize (Polymarket) with the Series D and E stakes, carrying value and ownership percentage, plus a $389m gain in Other income from remeasuring Series D to the Series E mark. WATCH THE NUMBERS: press reports say "up to $2bn" but actual cash deployed per the filings is $1.6bn — the ~$2.0bn figure is carrying value AFTER the markup. Do not conflate them. Polymarket data revenue is never separated; it sits inside Fixed Income and Data Services. Absent from the monthly statistics report.

Dual exposure and one of only two listed companies quantifying it: launched its own CFTC-regulated prediction markets in Feb 2026 cleared by its own FCM, added Kalshi sports contracts in June, AND is the brokerage-execution and clearing partner for the CME-FanDuel platform.

Where to look: Grouped, not isolated: PM sits inside the "non-OTC" line (futures + prediction markets + share dealing) at ~$70m in H1 2026, about 15% of group revenue, with management guiding to ~$140m annualised for FY26. Named as an FY26 priority in the results deck.

The sector's best-disclosed listed operator: routes retail order flow to Kalshi and ForecastEx, and with Susquehanna owns the JV holding 90% of Rothera Exchange and Clearing — the former LedgerX/MIAXdx — which it consolidates into its financials.

Where to look: Two sources, both quantitative. (1) 10-Q transaction-revenue table carries "Event contracts" as a line: $156m in Q2 2026 vs $10m a year earlier, now 12% of net revenues and the SECOND-largest transaction line, ahead of crypto ($100m) and equities ($129m). (2) The monthly operating data release carries "Event Contracts Traded" — 6.1bn in July 2026, ADV 197m, up roughly 20x year on year. That monthly series is the highest-frequency public read on the sector.

Kalshi's second broker integration — routes retail event-contract order flow to Kalshi's book, expanded to zero-commission sports prediction markets in Jan 2026.

Where to look: Quantified on the Q1 2026 call: prediction markets ~2% of total revenue and ~100m contracts traded per month. Webull also began publishing MONTHLY operating data on its IR site this year, which is an unusually high-frequency read for the sector.

Cboe Predicts — cash-settled binary options on the Mini-S&P 500 (XSP) paying $100 or $0, launched June 2026 and distributed via Interactive Brokers. STRUCTURALLY DIFFERENT from everything else here: these are SEC-regulated security options on Cboe Options Exchange cleared by OCC, not CFTC event contracts, which sidesteps the jurisdictional fight entirely.

Where to look: Nothing numeric anywhere. Absent from the July 2026 monthly volume report — any volume is presumably buried inside the Index options row, since these are security options. The earnings release has only a CEO quote and a trademark footnote. Management stated no material revenue from these products is in 2026 guidance. Pipeline: a July filing to list event contracts on 23 major US companies, targeted for around Q4.

Entering via Cboe with binary and range event options on the Mini S&P 500 — structurally different from the Kalshi model because it runs on securities rails cleared by OCC, not CFTC rails. Deliberately limited to financial outcomes, no sports or politics.

Where to look: Flagged on the Q2 2026 call as an engagement driver; no product revenue yet. Schwab publishes MONTHLY activity reports, which would give an early volume read once live.

Settlement infrastructure — a Feb 2026 partnership makes native USDC the collateral for Polymarket, replacing the bridged version. Circle earns reserve income on the float, so Polymarket balances flow into its revenue.

Where to look: Press release only. Polymarket balances are not separable within USDC in circulation, so this is narrative exposure rather than a trackable number.

Distribution front-end today — every Predict trade routes through Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange — plus an announced acquisition of The Clearing Company to own infrastructure. NOTE: that deal was announced Dec 2025 for a January close, but the Q2 2026 10-Q mentions neither The Clearing Company nor Kalshi, so closure is unconfirmed.

Where to look: A number, but narrative rather than a line item: the Q2 2026 shareholder letter states prediction-market contracts and revenue grew 106% quarter on quarter, crossing $100m in ANNUALISED revenue, with a new crypto binaries product driving 3x daily traders. That is a run-rate in prose, not a reported quarterly figure, and no PM line appears in any revenue table. Sits at the boundary of broken-out.

Prediction markets are live but deliberately ring-fenced inside eToro's non-custodial crypto wallet, separated from the main brokerage account. Working with Polymarket, in talks with Kalshi.

Where to look: CEO commentary in interviews and on analyst calls; no revenue figure. Scale unknown and likely immaterial today.

FanDuel Predicts is a JV with CME Group, with accounts at FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a CFTC-registered FCM. STRUCTURAL CHANGE disclosed 5 Aug 2026: all sports and novelty contracts are moving to Crypto.com's Nadex (CDNA), with CME retaining only the financial markets.

Where to look: No line item. The Q2 2026 release states plainly that "FanDuel Predicts Q2 revenue was not material", with H2 gross revenue expected to be offset by customer-acquisition costs before growing in 2027. The one forward number is market-making: management expects approximately $50m of revenue from it this year. US adjusted EBITDA fell 70% partly on prediction-market investment.

The clearest listed read on INSTITUTIONAL adoption — launched an OTC prediction-markets desk in June 2026 writing bilateral event derivatives referencing Kalshi and Polymarket contracts, packaged with equity and commodity hedges.

Where to look: Press release; check whether it lands inside Global Markets adjusted gross profit. First trade was a $10m position with Arca on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

The settlement-data layer under BOTH leading venues — signed Polymarket on 4 Aug 2026 and Kalshi on 5 Aug 2026 for official data, integrity services and marketing. It has also begun PROVIDING LIQUIDITY on prediction markets, which is a different risk profile from selling data.

Where to look: No prediction-markets row — revenue splits only into Betting and Media. PM appears as narrative: "incremental contribution from prediction markets" in the margin commentary, and the CEO saying it is "opening an entirely new avenue for growth". On the call: "we generated meaningful revenue from the category" with no figure. Worth noting the new risk-factor language, which now covers "providing liquidity on prediction markets... potential trading or market-making losses". No NFL-authorised PM data revenue is in 2026 guidance.

Agreed on 30 July 2026 to buy Underdog for up to $1.3bn — acquiring UDX, a wholly-owned DCM, DCO and FCM and the third-largest US event-contract brand behind Kalshi and Robinhood. IG also owns tastytrade as a US distribution front-end.

Where to look: Acquisition announcement quantifies the US impact (more than doubles US revenue, over 10x US monthly actives) but is not an earnings line. Once the deal closes, Underdog/UDX volume becomes reportable inside IG results — this is the one to watch develop.

Owns ForecastEx outright — a wholly-owned CFTC-registered DCM and DCO — and distributes Kalshi and CME contracts alongside it through ForecastTrader. The only listed company owning the full stack end to end.

Where to look: NOTHING QUANTITATIVE ANYWHERE. Verified absent from both places it should appear: the 10-Q contract-and-share-volume table lists only options, futures and stocks, and the monthly brokerage metrics release has no forecast or event row. ForecastEx volume is not separable from any published IBKR figure — the biggest coverage gap among the listed owners. Prediction markets appear only as narrative and as a risk factor.

The institutional plumbing layer — a prime broker and FCM building clearing access to Kalshi for hedge funds, expected to begin clearing in Q3 2026 with a stated client pipeline.

Where to look: Discussed on the Q2 2026 call (12 Aug 2026). Revenue materiality unknown and likely small against $696m quarterly revenue.

Changed materially in the last month: Nasdaq has SEC APPROVAL to list Nasdaq-100 event options with launch on track for Q4 2026, and separately signed a multi-year deal in Aug 2026 to supply Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Kalshi as a technology vendor.

Where to look: One sentence on the Q2 call confirming SEC approval and a Q4 launch, with no number, no venue named and no contract structure. The monthly volume statistics datasheet has no event-options row because the product has not launched — that file is the one to watch from Q4 2026. The Kalshi surveillance deal landed 18 days after the call, so it has not been discussed on any call yet; no equity or revenue share is disclosed.

Filed CFTC applications for both a DCM and a DCO in mid-2026. Management framed it as preserving optionality rather than an imminent launch, and gave no timeline on the Q2 call.

Where to look: Acknowledged on the Q2 2026 call. Nothing to measure yet — this is a watchlist entry, not a data source.

Multi-year global agreements with BOTH Kalshi and Polymarket — official data, odds, integrity and customer acquisition, including the right to contract directly with Kalshi's market makers and brokers.

Where to look: No prediction-markets row in the revenue-by-product table. The number is on the call, not in the filing: the CFO guided PM revenue to "tens of millions" for 2026 and described the deals as having a fixed and a variable component "which allows us to capture the upside as the market expands". Management flagged that US regulatory ambiguity defers the substantial benefits to 2027+. The About boilerplate now lists "prediction market partners" as a customer category.

Runs its own exchange rather than a distribution deal — affiliate Gemini Titan won a CFTC DCM licence in Dec 2025 after a five-year application, plus a DCO clearing licence, and launched Gemini Predictions on 15 Dec 2025.

Where to look: The DCM/DCO approvals were press-released; whether prediction-market revenue is separated from exchange transaction revenue in the 10-Q is unverified.

The only listed MARKET MAKER with confirmed prediction-market exposure — began pricing and trading event contracts on Kalshi and CME in May 2026. Susquehanna, Jane Street, Citadel Securities, DRW and Optiver are all private, so Virtu is the sole public proxy for PM market-making economics.

Where to look: Reported by Bloomberg; no company disclosure found. Worth checking the Trading Income discussion in the 10-Q.

Media distribution rather than trading — a Mar 2026 sponsored-data deal embeds live Kalshi event-contract probabilities across Fox News, Fox Business, Fox Weather and Fox One.

Where to look: Nothing prediction-specific published. Recorded because it is the clearest media-integration datapoint, not because it yields numbers.

Historic exposure only. Owned LedgerX, renamed it MIAXdx, then sold 90% of it — closing 20 January 2026 — to the Robinhood/Susquehanna JV that renamed it Rothera. MIH kept a 10% stake carried at $10.0m, plus a put over it and a buyer call on half.

Where to look: The Q2 2026 10-Q contains zero occurrences of 'prediction market' or 'event contract', and the earnings release mentions neither Rothera nor prediction markets. Only PM-adjacent items are the disposal, a $50.6m gain in 1H26 and the $10.0m carrying value in Note 6. Not a useful sector data source.